Coronavirus Thread

[Vespidae]

I wouldn’t expect there’s many microbiologists on this board but certainly 1/3 of the folks here have taken fluid dynamics.

And? The issue is exposure rate and time. No one wants to talk about that. Instead, it’s vague averages. Data is not information and information is not knowledge.

I do not participate in high density activities and I limit my exposure time. It’s not complicated. The hysteria is unwarranted. Any third year ME class on particle dynamics and air movement tells you what to do.

 

[LibertyTurns]

And? The issue is exposure rate and time. No one wants to talk about that. Instead, it’s vague averages. Data is not information and information is not knowledge.

I do not participate in high density activities and I limit my exposure time. It’s not complicated. The hysteria is unwarranted. Any third year ME class on particle dynamics and air movement tells you what to do.

You’re not wrong. My badly made point was that many on here should know better but it’s as if we’ve forgotten what we learned. There’s no distinction being made between a farm & a downtown office building, a marina & rock concert, etc. Some think it’s selfish for others to be able to decide for themselves. I think I can decide for myself if playing golf with 3 others that I know to be responsible in an area without many cases is more or less risky than heading to Miami to hangout with the cool crowd on South Beach. I think you should be able to decide for you. If you’re acting in a way I deem inappropriate, ie not wearing a mask in an area with a lot of others and/or the area is a hotspot or a bit too dicey for my liking, I’ll just go somewhere else. It really isn’t that complicated.

 

[Vespidae]

You’re not wrong. My badly made point was that many on here should know better but it’s as if we’ve forgotten what we learned. There’s no distinction being made between a farm & a downtown office building, a marina & rock concert, etc. Some think it’s selfish for others to be able to decide for themselves. I think I can decide for myself if playing golf with 3 others that I know to be responsible in an area without many cases is more or less risky than heading to Miami to hangout with the cool crowd on South Beach. I think you should be able to decide for you. If you’re acting in a way I deem inappropriate, ie not wearing a mask in an area with a lot of others and/or the area is a hotspot or a bit too dicey for my liking, I’ll just go somewhere else. It really isn’t that complicated.

I totally agree. I’m pretty well versed in particle density, mechanical filtration and ventilation. I can’t stand hearing elected officials bungle basic engineering. I also find it hysterical to read MD’s articles on ventilation! Seriously? Where are the ME’s? They are the SME’s on that skill.

Regardless, if you know what you’re doing, it’s not complicated to navigate.

 

[TampaBuzz]

Let’s be honest. Teachers, for the most part, aren’t the cream of the crop. They are in teaching and academia for a reason. Many couldn’t cut it outside of government schools. It’s no surprise to me that this is going this way.

Sorry, I don't by your stereotype. Granted, there are some bad teachers out there, but most are truly dedicated to their craft and willingly and voluntarily choose to teach because they recognize the value and importance of what they do. They better be good at what they do - our children depend upon it.

 

[Vespidae]

Sorry, I don't by your stereotype. Granted, there are some bad teachers out there, but most are truly dedicated to their craft and willingly and voluntarily choose to teach because they recognize the value and importance of what they do. They better be good at what they do - our children depend upon it.

“Those who can’t do, teach” is no longer an accurate description. Most universities have dedicated academic research and experienced professionals teaching. In addition, they operate robust consulting companies that operationalize their research in companies. I know a number of college professors earning over a million a year in this model and highly sought for their expertise.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

“Those who can’t do, teach” is no longer an accurate description. Most universities have dedicated academic research and experienced professionals teaching. In addition, they operate robust consulting companies that operationalize their research in companies. I know a number of college professors earning over a million a year in this model and highly sought for their expertise.

I have a sister who is a middle school english teacher in North Carolina. She got extra certificates along the way and makes $80,000/year. She's been at the same middle school her entire career and will retire at age 50 after nearly 30 years of teaching next year. She'll earn a large percentage of her most recent salary in retirement benefits, which will equate to about $50,000/year, which she may make for the next 30 years. She'll make roughly $3 million in her lifetime for being a middle school english teacher, and that's just on the cash side. She'll also have around 60 years (from age 23 when she started to probably past age 80) of a high end health insurance plan that she doesn't have to contribute much to. That's over another $1 million in that benefit. Most people get into teaching because they have a heart for it - but even in the states people criticize for not paying teachers well make an extremely generous living. I'd argue working 9 months a year as a middle school english teacher for half your life and earning around $4m is pretty darned generous.

 

[Vespidae]

I'd argue working 9 months a year as a middle school english teacher for half your life and earning around $4m is pretty darned generous.

My sisters were the same. Both taught and became school principals, retired early and have wonderful pensions and benefits.

 

[YJMD]

I totally agree. I’m pretty well versed in particle density, mechanical filtration and ventilation. I can’t stand hearing elected officials bungle basic engineering. I also find it hysterical to read MD’s articles on ventilation! Seriously? Where are the ME’s? They are the SME’s on that skill.

Regardless, if you know what you’re doing, it’s not complicated to navigate.

Where are you getting the data you use to quantify risk? It may be easy to model, but all models rely on assumptions that are made.

Regardless, I do think that we should have enough confidence that a golf outing is safe (at least while on the course). Of course, what we observe in human behavior is people regularly stepping outside the constraints of the model, sometimes simply through inattention. For example, in tracing spreader events in our hospital we have found lapses in break areas, 2 people eating at the same time, hallways where running into someone else isn't anticipated in time, etc. as the source of spread despite extremely good adherence to protocols which apparently work. In the general community it is laughably worse.

While there are some who are intelligent and capable enough to use their own judgement, that will never be the norm.

So it boils back down to starting with definition of the outcomes we would hope to achieve.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

The problem is not teachers, of which there are tons of excellent and dedicated ones. The problem is the teeachers' unions, like the one in California who is making outrageous non-Covid-related demands ---
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethb...rson-classes-until-their-progressive-n2572420

 

[Deleted member 2897]

The problem is not teachers, of which there are tons of excellent and dedicated ones. The problem is the teeachers' unions, like the one in California who is making outrageous non-Covid-related demands ---
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethb...rson-classes-until-their-progressive-n2572420

before returning to work, they want Medicare for all, increaseD taxes, defunded police, etc? HA HA HA HA HA! I lived in California for a while and I love that state. There is so much great food and culture, the outdoors is amazing. But I don’t understand how people can raise families there without spending a mint with how obnoxious taxes are and having to pay for private schools.

 

[Vespidae]

Where are you getting the data you use to quantify risk? It may be easy to model, but all models rely on assumptions that are made.

Regardless, I do think that we should have enough confidence that a golf outing is safe (at least while on the course). Of course, what we observe in human behavior is people regularly stepping outside the constraints of the model, sometimes simply through inattention. For example, in tracing spreader events in our hospital we have found lapses in break areas, 2 people eating at the same time, hallways where running into someone else isn't anticipated in time, etc. as the source of spread despite extremely good adherence to protocols which apparently work. In the general community it is laughably worse.

While there are some who are intelligent and capable enough to use their own judgement, that will never be the norm.

So it boils back down to starting with definition of the outcomes we would hope to achieve.

Risks in shared spaces is as function of the number of people (few, many), their infection rate (many, few) time (brief, extended), location (indoors, outdoors), air exchange (high, low).

Golf for example has a zero infection rate. Few people, brief interaction, outdoors, with massive air exchange. Talking to 10 other people in a phone booth with 2 infected people for 5 hours has a high infection rate.

In most cases, you can boil it down to a few parameters and have a pretty good idea of the risk. I could build a spreadsheet model, but for my purposes, it's not necessary.

 

[RonJohn]

I see reports that Walmart and Sam's Club are going to start requiring all customers wear masks inside the stores starting Monday.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

I see reports that Walmart and Sam's Club are going to start requiring all customers wear masks inside the stores starting Monday.

Boy, the "WalMartians" are not going to like that.

 

[Vespidae]

I see reports that Walmart and Sam's Club are going to start requiring all customers wear masks inside the stores starting Monday.

I think Costco already does.

 

[RonJohn]

Boy, the "WalMartians" are not going to like that.

I read that they are conducting training to have an employee at each entrance door to inform and enforce the policy. I suspect that a large part of why they announced today that it will start being a requirement next week.

When I was at Universal Studios, they had two people on microphones at the entrance to each park interacting with the park visitors and discussing the mask/distancing policies. There, they had people who were very quick witted and sociable doing the talking. They made it more of a: "you are going to have a lot of fun today" -- "here are the things that the park is doing to protect you" -- "here are things that your fellow visitors should do to help protect each other", type of interaction.

I don't see Walmart getting people at every store who are able to entertain and inform at the same time. I think they are probably working hard to not have Twitter, TikTok, and Youtube filled with confrontations on Monday. However, there will be some confrontations on Monday. There are probably some people who have marked Monday as a day to "fight the good fight" for civil rights and make a Youtube video of fighting with the Walmart greeter.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I read that they are conducting training to have an employee at each entrance door to inform and enforce the policy. I suspect that a large part of why they announced today that it will start being a requirement next week.

When I was at Universal Studios, they had two people on microphones at the entrance to each park interacting with the park visitors and discussing the mask/distancing policies. There, they had people who were very quick witted and sociable doing the talking. They made it more of a: "you are going to have a lot of fun today" -- "here are the things that the park is doing to protect you" -- "here are things that your fellow visitors should do to help protect each other", type of interaction.

I don't see Walmart getting people at every store who are able to entertain and inform at the same time. I think they are probably working hard to not have Twitter, TikTok, and Youtube filled with confrontations on Monday. However, there will be some confrontations on Monday. There are probably some people who have marked Monday as a day to "fight the good fight" for civil rights and make a Youtube video of fighting with the Walmart greeter.

We are 2 weeks into Charleston enforcing face masks. Tons of people not wearing them still (obviously when you look at the numbers)...they’ve written......wait for it...........ZERO citations.

 

[WreckinGT]

The mystery of the Covid spikes in the south has been solved. According to the CDC director, it was northerners on vacation:

https://thehill.com/changing-americ...-director-says-northerners-visiting-the-south

 

[herb]

The mystery of the Covid spikes in the south has been solved. According to the CDC director, it was northerners on vacation:

https://thehill.com/changing-americ...-director-says-northerners-visiting-the-south

so are we now believing the CDC director or is he full of it this time? I can never keep up

 

[WreckinGT]

so are we now believing the CDC director or is he full of it this time? I can never keep up

I think you are pretty safe going with the full of it side on this particular claim.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I think you are pretty safe going with the full of it side on this particular claim.

But see that’s just the problem isn’t it? This is the organization that shut off all testing during the swine flu once it was called a pandemic, because they said there was no reason any longer to count cases. They are also the ones that made testing this time so difficult at the beginning, then took the opposite disposition later. They also said that face masks don’t do any good, and all kinds of other things.

My response to this particular claim on their behalf is that as is sometimes the case with them, there is no science behind it. They say they are speculating. Yet the cases aren’t really increasing up north. I don’t doubt that some of the cases are from infected people traveling to the south. But the virus does not spread because someone simply entered a new state. What has to happen is an infected person needs to be around other people in close quarters without wearing masks and without using good hygiene, as we all know. So maybe a majority of the infections are from visitors, but the virus doesn’t care if you were in New York last month or Atlanta. The bottom line is still the same Dash not enough people are keeping their distance, not enough people are using good hygiene, and not enough people are wearing facemasks.