Coronavirus Thread

[LibertyTurns]

If we keep testing at the rate we’ve ramped to in the last week we’re going to peak at about 12K cases a day in Florida. Positive rates are hovering at 15%. Interestingly, hospitalizations went down not up. One thing I did not know is there has always been a disconnect between the number of cases in a day and what the actual data showed. The reason is they add the late reported data to the day’s total even if it didn’t occur on that day. For example, there were around 6500 cases from Tuesday but now there’s closer to 6700. Yesterday was actually 9600, not the 10,100 Being reported in the media. Those 200 plus all the other late reported data is added to the current day total making it roughly 500 cases higher than the actual number count in the database.

Things are red hot in Miami Dade/Broward/Palm Beach as they’re up to 53% of the deaths as of today when they were only low 40’s last week. Tampa Hillsborough and Orlando Orange are catching up. Hillsborough may catch Palm Beach if they’re not careful. I read a report their huge testing facility is overwhelmed & is having to send people away again.

In my county we more than doubled capacity in testing according to the hospital since Monday, closer to 250%. They’re adding more Capacity again tomorrow. Our positive rate is declining, we haven’t had a death in a week and our hospital beds are still good but we’re a pimple on a gnat’s butt compared to the big boys in Miami, Tampa, Orlando, etc. Amazing how different some areas are to others, like Jacksonville which doesn’t seem like is having many troubles right now at all.

 

[BeachBuzz]

If we keep testing at the rate we’ve ramped to in the last week we’re going to peak at about 12K cases a day in Florida. Positive rates are hovering at 15%. Interestingly, hospitalizations went down not up. One thing I did not know is there has always been a disconnect between the number of cases in a day and what the actual data showed. The reason is they add the late reported data to the day’s total even if it didn’t occur on that day. For example, there were around 6500 cases from Tuesday but now there’s closer to 6700. Yesterday was actually 9600, not the 10,100 Being reported in the media. Those 200 plus all the other late reported data is added to the current day total making it roughly 500 cases higher than the actual number count in the database.

Things are red hot in Miami Dade/Broward/Palm Beach as they’re up to 53% of the deaths as of today when they were only low 40’s last week. Tampa Hillsborough and Orlando Orange are catching up. Hillsborough may catch Palm Beach if they’re not careful. I read a report their huge testing facility is overwhelmed & is having to send people away again.

In my county we more than doubled capacity in testing according to the hospital since Monday, closer to 250%. They’re adding more Capacity again tomorrow. Our positive rate is declining, we haven’t had a death in a week and our hospital beds are still good but we’re a pimple on a gnat’s butt compared to the big boys in Miami, Tampa, Orlando, etc. Amazing how different some areas are to others, like Jacksonville which doesn’t seem like is having many troubles right now at all.

One of the reasons for the huge increase in cases in Florida today was that they are throwing in a bunch of Antigen tests that had been run during the month of June that they had not been counting. In Bay County 118 of the 173 cases that were added today were from old Antigen tests.

 

[LibertyTurns]

One of the reasons for the huge increase in cases in Florida today was that they are throwing in a bunch of Antigen tests that had been run during the month of June that they had not been counting. In Bay County 118 of the 173 cases that were added today were from old Antigen tests.

That’s very odd. Why would they do that?

 

[GCdaJuiceMan]

That’s very odd. Why would they do that?

I'm assuming sarcasm but we know the answer to that.

 

[dtm1997]

Does CJP look like he's fearing for his life?

 

[LibertyTurns]

I'm assuming sarcasm but we know the answer to that.

No, I was serious. Why would they do that? Makes absolutely no sense. I’ve not heard anyone else changing how they count down here in over a month, that’s when antibody tests started to be counted.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

No, I was serious. Why would they do that? Makes absolutely no sense. I’ve not heard anyone else changing how they count down here in over a month, that’s when antibody tests started to be counted.

That was 1 of the 2 main reasons that lady who was fired accused Florida of hiding and obfuscating data. One was she wanted every case, hospitalization, and death counted as against Florida whether they were a resident or a visitor (other states don't do that), and she wanted all antibody tests counted too. She also does some crazy (my opinion) things on her own site she's built - it doesn't matter if someone tests negative 4 times, positive 3 times, negative 4 times and then a positive - she only counts all those as 1 test. I would have fired her too - thinking she can dictate health and data policy over the top of the top health experts and in contradiction to what all the states have agreed on. Silly.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Looks like hydroxychloroquine works after all --- https://detroit.cbslocal.com/2020/0...ydroxychloroquine-lowers-covid-19-death-rate/

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Looks like hydroxychloroquine works after all --- https://detroit.cbslocal.com/2020/0...ydroxychloroquine-lowers-covid-19-death-rate/

Some people here called this out when the other study was published - that there may be certain demographics and health profiles and timing where it works. Notice this health system showed their data and said “it worked for us”. The other study IIRC made conclusions that nobody anywhere should take it because it won’t work for anyone...which was just dumb. Instead of saying here’s how we did it, and we didn’t see any benefits.

 

[GoldZ]

Looks like hydroxychloroquine works after all --- https://detroit.cbslocal.com/2020/0...ydroxychloroquine-lowers-covid-19-death-rate/

Seems this is the more common opinion than the "doesn't work" mantra. I'll go with Oxford and Johns Hopkins, who say it does work.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Looks like hydroxychloroquine works after all --- https://detroit.cbslocal.com/2020/0...ydroxychloroquine-lowers-covid-19-death-rate/

Seems this is the more common opinion than the "doesn't work" mantra. I'll go with Oxford and Johns Hopkins, who say it does work.

People died because numerous medical experts had an agenda instead of relying on scientific evidence. That should be the headline.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Wonder what the willfully ignorant have to say now. Guess we'll never know.

 

[LibertyTurns]

It’s Thursday so I predict 11k cases today, 11.5k Friday and 12k Saturday in Florida. Monday morning coming off the holiday weekend there’s going to be rampant hysteria down here.

 

[Techster]

It’s Thursday so I predict 11k cases today, 11.5k Friday and 12k Saturday in Florida. Monday morning coming off the holiday weekend there’s going to be rampant hysteria down here.

I've started to tune out the numbers because it's just an overload of bad news right now. I don't see it getting better until we get a coordinated effort from the States.

Then we have all the state to state movement for the July 4th holiday...so the boiling pot gets the heat turned up for the weekend.

You just cross your fingers people are being smart...but then again, we're in this situation because people don't know how to be smart.

 

[GT_EE78]

> if you want an antibody test just donate blood
Red Cross started doing antibody tests on blood donors June 15.
So far 1.2% are positive.
They expect to gather data on how long those antibodies last.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/29/21306862/blood-donor-red-cross-antibody-coronavirus

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Went on a bike ride with my wife yesterday evening. A high school graduation party was going down the street. Had to be 30-40 kids there...of course no masks or anything. Then I saw this article and thought pretty much this is what’s up. What an amazing generation.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/alabama-s...-parties-infected-officials/story?id=71552514

They are doing a service by making Social Security viable longer and enhancing the velocity of money through intergenerational wealth transfers.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

They are doing a service by making Social Security viable longer and enhancing the velocity of money through intergenerational wealth transfers.

Medicare and Pension Actuaries are having parties in the streets right now.

 

[FredJacket]

Be careful @GTNavyNuke & @bwelbo ... your sarcasm may inadvertently be making the wrong point. Not enough people are dying to put any dent in those entitlements.

To be clear, I am not pulling for solvency of those things at the expense of a single covid death.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Be careful @GTNavyNuke & @bwelbo ... your sarcasm may inadvertently be making the wrong point. Not enough people are dying to put any dent in those entitlements.

To be clear, I am not pulling for solvency of those things at the expense of a single covid death.

Not for a lack of trying by the yahoos congregating without masks.

I hope the CDC updates the excess deaths stats for Friday so I can post some stats. May not with a holiday. SInce it is so far backward looking (~two weeks), I don't expect to see an uptick. It usually takes a few weeks to die from this thing.

Concerning death statistics, looks like about 60% of the people in the US die in hospitals.
https://palliative.stanford.edu/home-hospice-home-care-of-the-dying-patient/where-do-americans-die/
https://palliative.stanford.edu/home-hospice-home-care-of-the-dying-patient/where-do-americans-die/

So maybe those who die in a hospital can have some death statistics published by John Hopkins in advance of the death certificate. I think the CDC only relies on the official death certificate:
"Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis, and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more. Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019."

Oh well, maybe stats tomorrow. I think the death rate per hospital case from COVID-19 will be going down with better treatment protocols on one hand. On the other hand, there are a lot of people who don't have health care and can't afford to go to the hospital without jeopardizing their potentially surviving family finances. Not a good time.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Not for a lack of trying by the yahoos congregating without masks.

I hope the CDC updates the excess deaths stats for Friday so I can post some stats. May not with a holiday. SInce it is so far backward looking (~two weeks), I don't expect to see an uptick. It usually takes a few weeks to die from this thing.

Concerning death statistics, looks like about 60% of the people in the US die in hospitals.
https://palliative.stanford.edu/home-hospice-home-care-of-the-dying-patient/where-do-americans-die/
https://palliative.stanford.edu/home-hospice-home-care-of-the-dying-patient/where-do-americans-die/

So maybe those who die in a hospital can have some death statistics published by John Hopkins in advance of the death certificate. I think the CDC only relies on the official death certificate:
"Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis, and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more. Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019."

Oh well, maybe stats tomorrow. I think the death rate per hospital case from COVID-19 will be going down with better treatment protocols on one hand. On the other hand, there are a lot of people who don't have health care and can't afford to go to the hospital without jeopardizing their potentially surviving family finances. Not a good time.

Yep, CDC reported deaths use death certificates. So they are usually a couple weeks behind the real time numbers you see on the news.