Coronavirus Thread

[whitegoldsphinx]

FWIW, NY/CT/NJ have just announced they are implementing a 14 day quarantine for people coming from any state where the positive test rate is above 10%
As of today that would be AL, AR, AZ, FL, NC, SC, TX, UT, WA

Since the avg changes every day what states might be impacted could change daily as well.

LOL! WTF? Words like irony and arbitrary come to mind. No further comment really necessary.

 

[Techster]

I don't have any issue with the Johns Hopkins data. I have issue with your interpretation of the data. I look at it. I look at the Georgia DPH data for Georgia, since I live here. I look at the AJC Georgia data since I live here. I look at the IHME data.(for historical data, not the projections.) I look at the CDC data. All of that is valid data.

You just have to be careful to understand what the data is and what the data means. Take the AJC data vs the GA DPH data. The AJC counts data when it is reported. The DPH counts data on the date of the test/death/etc. Both are valid ways of looking at the data, you just have to understand how it is presented.

The Johns Hopkins data is confirmed cases. It doesn't matter if the number of tests go up or down. It doesn't matter if the percentages of positives goes up or down. It doesn't matter if a location has enough tests or not. It doesn't capture if a location decides not to report their data. It is valid data. It provides a baseline. We know there are at least 2.3 million cases in the US and at least 9.3 million cases worldwide. There could be 1 billion cases worldwide and the Johns Hopkins data wouldn't capture that, because it only provides cases that were confirmed and reported. My disagreement with using that data for comparisons is that not all locations test the same and not all locations report the same. Even just along a timeline in the US, that data did not account for the increased testing in May. There was increased testing and a lower percentage of positives, but the Johns Hopkins data show approximately the same rise in confirmed infections. I believe most scientists believe that the number of total infections decreased in May in the US, but you can't see that in the Johns Hopkins data. Once again, it is valid data but it has limitations. It isn't valid data for comparisons between locations or across timelines.

We ALL understand that the data isn't an accurate picture because the unknowns are too many people on earth are walking around this earth infected and it's not being reported. Hell, we've been joking about that since all of this started.

If you don't like that the US represents 24% of the worldwide infections reported by Johns Hopkins...hey, that's an issue you have to work out with yourself and Johns Hopkins. That's the data that is there...I don't care if you want to bring in unknowns of the infected or unreported masses. Listen, I understand the point you're trying to make, but the thing about the "unknowable" data you keep bringing up is...well, it's "unknowable" for a reason. So you report on the data that is known.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

We ALL understand that the data isn't an accurate picture because the unknowns are too many people on earth are walking around this earth infected and it's not being reported. Hell, we've been joking about that since all of this started.

If you don't like that the US represents 24% of the worldwide infections reported by Johns Hopkins...hey, that's an issue you have to work out with yourself and Johns Hopkins. That's the data that is there...I don't care if you want to bring in unknowns of the infected or unreported masses. Listen, I understand the point you're trying to make, but the thing about the "unknowable" data you keep bringing up is...well, it's "unknowable" for a reason. So you report on the data that is known.

There is a lot of data that is known about other countries’ struggles with being able to test and people dying by the thousands at home, uncounted. We have linked to it here, referencing health experts. You choose to ignore all of that and condemn our country for being the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the world, when that is false.

 

[Techster]

Well, as I said, they need to worry about their own citizens, not us.

We're not going up there, but they're coming down here and have been coming down here. There are estimates that about 500,000 people left New York over the last couple months. Those people coming back are who they need to be wary of. And when New Yorkers go on vacation and come back, that's who they need to be wary of. Nobody down here is going up there. They're writing these orders referring to out of state people, but that's not who should be the target of their carefulness.

Do you REALLY think that's how it works? Do your REALLY think it's as easy as "we won't go there"? Are you speaking for everyone in SC? Hell, I can't even stop my 70 year old mom from going to the stores even though my entire family has pleaded with here not to. We literally had to disable her car recently. My sister lives just outside of Spartanburg, and her husband has to travel pretty much everywhere in the lower 48 for work. NY is the biggest financial center in the US, how many businessmen (and women) from SC do you think need to go up there for work?

That was my earlier point in this thread about movement of people. Unless you have one rule for everyone, people will not stop migrating from one area to another. Just because you might not go somewhere doesn't mean other people won't. How many idiot 20-30 yr olds are getting in their cars and driving all over the US to visit and party with friends and family for the summer?

I wish it were as easy as saying "I ain't going, and they ain't going" but we all know that's not gonna happen.

 

[RonJohn]

Listen, I understand the point you're trying to make, but the thing about the "unknowable" data you keep bringing up is...well, it's "unknowable" for a reason. So you report on the data that is known.

You also have to understand the limitations of the numbers you have. Don't make bold assertions that fall outside of those limitations. Your comparison of the US's percentage of the worlds infections is outside of those limitations.

 

[Techster]

There is a lot of data that is known about other countries’ struggles with being able to test and people dying by the thousands at home, uncounted. We have linked to it here, referencing health experts. You choose to ignore all of that and condemn our country for being the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the world, when that is false.

Where have I ignored that other countries have dealt with this as poorly as us? In fact, did I just not link the other day to how the US, per capital, was one of the worst in terms of infections in the nation?

"Testing more" means nothing if you don't take into account per capita. And you may also want to walk back your "rest of the world combined" statement...that's absurdly false. Also, the United States reports "test results" as opposed to total people/individuals tested. Let's be honest here, our government has been making a shim sham of the data from the start.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-testing-per-capita-countries-ahead-of-us-2020-5

I have ZERO confidence in what our government is reporting. Hell, we have one state (looking at you Florida), one of the worst infected areas in our country, flat out hiding data...in fact, their governor fired the lady in charge of the data because she wasn't willing to manipulate the numbers to make Florida look better. Also, our infections per capita is also among the worst:

https://www.statista.com/chart/21176/covid-19-infection-density-in-countries-most-total-cases/

It's literally a who's who of the countries that handled this epidemic the worst. It may disappoint you that we're only #5 there.

I mean, I pretty much prove your statement false with that last sentence.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Where have I ignored that other countries have dealt with this as poorly as us? In fact, did I just not link the other day to how the US, per capital, was one of the worst in terms of infections in the nation?



I mean, I pretty much prove your statement false with that last sentence.

Actually those quotes from you is exactly my point.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Do you REALLY think that's how it works? Do your REALLY think it's as easy as "we won't go there"? Are you speaking for everyone in SC? Hell, I can't even stop my 70 year old mom from going to the stores even though my entire family has pleaded with here not to. We literally had to disable her car recently. My sister lives just outside of Spartanburg, and her husband has to travel pretty much everywhere in the lower 48 for work. NY is the biggest financial center in the US, how many businessmen (and women) from SC do you think need to go up there for work?

That was my earlier point in this thread about movement of people. Unless you have one rule for everyone, people will not stop migrating from one area to another. Just because you might not go somewhere doesn't mean other people won't. How many idiot 20-30 yr olds are getting in their cars and driving all over the US to visit and party with friends and family for the summer?

I wish it were as easy as saying "I ain't going, and they ain't going" but we all know that's not gonna happen.

Like I said, they don’t need to worry about the few scattered travelers going up there. They need to worry about the several hundred thousand New Yorkers coming back. They’re focusing on probably 2% of the risk.

 

[Techster]

You also have to understand the limitations of the numbers you have. Don't make bold assertions that fall outside of those limitations. Your comparison of the US's percentage of the worlds infections is outside of those limitations.

I've pretty much admitted the limitations of what's being reported. Multiple times. What's bold about saying the US has one of the worst infection numbers and infection rates? That's pretty much the gist of that 24%...doesn't matter if India or China have a real rate higher than us, because it doesn't change the fact that the US has handled this as poorly as anyone.

So, with the data given on Johns Hopkins website, that's point I was making. You can obfuscate with semantics, but it doesn't change anything.

 

[Techster]

Actually those quotes from you is exactly my point.

LOL, no it wasn't your point. Good try though.

 

[Techster]

Like I said, they don’t need to worry about the few scattered travelers going up there. They need to worry about the several hundred thousand New Yorkers coming back. They’re focusing on probably 2% of the risk.

You do understand how infectious diseases work, right? The "few scattered travelers" is what started the chain reaction that shutdown the entire US (and other countries).

 

[Deleted member 2897]

LOL, no it wasn't your point. Good try though.

No what you said is exactly my point. You can't snap your fingers and change my point for me.

So lets say it again - we have referenced numerous examples of where other major countries like Italy, Spain, the UK, Brazil and so on had tremendous issues with testing. Italy was reporting people by the thousands were dying at home, untested/undiagnosed and never came into the hospital. They had no ventilators available, so they just sedated people to make them comfortable. We here never had a single person go without a ventilator. We have no reports of people by the thousands dying at home, undiagnosed. We're not building 100,000 mass graves to bury people in 5 deep to save space.

Yes, our people are ignoring science, ignoring advice from health experts and behaving foolishly and irresponsibly. Yes, we don't have the clearest data available ourselves. But if you actually think we have a quarter of the entire world's cases here, your ignoring all the information readily available and right in front of you.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

You do understand how infectious diseases work, right? The "few scattered travelers" is what started the chain reaction that shutdown the entire US (and other countries).

You don't understand that 500,000 is a bigger number than a couple hundred right? (See how fun being condescending is?). Why would you ignore hundreds of thousands of people and focus on probably a couple hundred? That makes no sense. If they're not requiring their own citizens to also quarantine when they return, they're just being silly and trying to be vindictive.

 

[Lotta Booze]

You don't understand that 500,000 is a bigger number than a couple hundred right? (See how fun being condescending is?). Why would you ignore hundreds of thousands of people and focus on probably a couple hundred? That makes no sense. If they're not requiring their own citizens to also quarantine when they return, they're just being silly and trying to be vindictive.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/new...ravelers-from-coronavirus-hotspot-states.html

"Cuomo said travelers coming from states with a high infection rate will be subject to the quarantine."

That seems inclusive of New Yorkers who fled and are now returning. Not seeing anything that provides a loophole for NY residents, just "travelers" as a whole coming from the listed states should quarantine.

Edit: Specific wording from tweet below. "All individuals"

 

[Techster]

No what you said is exactly my point. You can't snap your fingers and change my point for me.

So lets say it again - we have referenced numerous examples of where other major countries like Italy, Spain, the UK, Brazil and so on had tremendous issues with testing. Italy was reporting people by the thousands were dying at home, untested/undiagnosed and never came into the hospital. They had no ventilators available, so they just sedated people to make them comfortable. We here never had a single person go without a ventilator. We have no reports of people by the thousands dying at home, undiagnosed. We're not building 100,000 mass graves to bury people in 5 deep to save space.

Yes, our people are ignoring science, ignoring advice from health experts and behaving foolishly and irresponsibly. Yes, we don't have the clearest data available ourselves. But if you actually think we have a quarter of the entire world's cases here, your ignoring all the information readily available and right in front of you.

No, this is what you said:

There is a lot of data that is known about other countries’ struggles with being able to test and people dying by the thousands at home, uncounted. We have linked to it here, referencing health experts. You choose to ignore all of that and condemn our country for being the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the world, when that is false.

Your last response, which I'm replying to now is moving the goalpost and introducing a separate argument. You want to say I'm ignoring that there are other countries just as bad as us, but as I've shown, that's simply false.

If you want to simply point out that you don't agree that the US doesn't have a quarter of the world's REAL infections...which you nor I can really prove or disprove since our numbers at home are true either, that's one thing. You can disagree with how I'm applying Johns Hopkins data, and that's fine, that's your perogative.

To say I'm choosing to ignore data on other countries is patently false...especially false when I'm reporting the encompassing international data from Johns Hopkins.

If you disagree with my application of the data, fine. Don't move goalpost and make up arguments because you were wrong.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

No, this is what you said:

There is a lot of data that is known about other countries’ struggles with being able to test and people dying by the thousands at home, uncounted. We have linked to it here, referencing health experts. You choose to ignore all of that and condemn our country for being the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the world, when that is false.

Your last response, which I'm replying to now is moving the goalpost and introducing a separate argument. You want to say I'm ignoring that there are other countries just as bad as us, but as I've shown, that's simply false.

If you want to simply point out that you don't agree that the US doesn't have a quarter of the world's REAL infections...which you nor I can really prove or disprove since our numbers at home are true either, that's one thing. You can disagree with how I'm applying Johns Hopkins data, and that's fine, that's your perogative.

To say I'm choosing to ignore data on other countries is patently false...especially false when I'm reporting the encompassing international data from Johns Hopkins.

If you disagree with my application of the data, fine. Don't move goalpost and make up arguments because you were wrong.

I am making the same complaint about your post and not changing it. Its sad that this is how discussions with you always devolve. Its the same thing over and over.

We CAN disprove that the US has a quarter of the world's cases. We've listed tons of references here. I'll say them again - thousands and thousands of people all over Europe were dying at home, undiagnosed and uncounted. There were no ventilators and no room in the hospitals. If you were an elderly person in bad shape, there was no point in you using their resources - you were left at home to die. There are 100,000 mass graves in Brazil dug deep enough to bury 5 people in a single hole to save room. Do you see any of that here? Do you see a single person not getting a ventilator? Do you see a single person staying at home to die, undiagnosed and uncounted because there is no room at a hospital? Much less thousands and thousands?

Yes, if you think we have a quarter of the world's cases, you're choosing to ignore all the data thats available in front of you. That's the point I made, that's the point I continue to make.

 

[Techster]

You don't understand that 500,000 is a bigger number than a couple hundred right? (See how fun being condescending is?). Why would you ignore hundreds of thousands of people and focus on probably a couple hundred? That makes no sense. If they're not requiring their own citizens to also quarantine when they return, they're just being silly and trying to be vindictive.

Your response is telling me you don't know how infectious diseases work.

Your problem seems to stem that it's hurting your SC pride that those NY carpet baggers are insulting you and your state. You should probably separate personal feelings from how science and infectious diseases work.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/new...ravelers-from-coronavirus-hotspot-states.html

"Cuomo said travelers coming from states with a high infection rate will be subject to the quarantine."

That seems inclusive of New Yorkers who fled and are now returning. Not seeing anything that provides a loophole for NY residents, just "travelers" as a whole coming from the listed states should quarantine.

Edit: Specific wording from tweet below. "All individuals"

I guess we will see, but his language implies the opposite.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...quarantine-for-travelers-from-hard-hit-states
"He said people could be discovered for example by hotel clerks, other people in business meetings, or if they are stopped by police and have out of state plates."

That's not the type of words someone would use if its a resident returning home.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Your response is telling me you don't know how infectious diseases work.

Your problem seems to stem that it's hurting your SC pride that those NY carpet baggers are insulting you and your state. You should probably separate personal feelings from how science and infectious diseases work.

And your condescending personal attacks are an embarrassment to this site. Its a shame that everytime there is a discussion involving assertions that you make that people on here dispute, this is how your language devolves. Its really sad.

 

[Techster]

I am making the same complaint about your post and not changing it. Its sad that this is how discussions with you always devolve. Its the same thing over and over.

We CAN disprove that the US has a quarter of the world's cases. We've listed tons of references here. I'll say them again - thousands and thousands of people all over Europe were dying at home, undiagnosed and uncounted. There were no ventilators and no room in the hospitals. If you were an elderly person in bad shape, there was no point in you using their resources - you were left at home to die. There are 100,000 mass graves in Brazil dug deep enough to bury 5 people in a single hole to save room. Do you see any of that here? Do you see a single person not getting a ventilator? Do you see a single person staying at home to die, undiagnosed and uncounted because there is no room at a hospital? Much less thousands and thousands?

Yes, if you think we have a quarter of the world's cases, you're choosing to ignore all the data thats available in front of you. That's the point I made, that's the point I continue to make.

Well you seem to know the unknowable. So, with all of your knowledge and hard facts from all these links you refer to, please prove or disprove the United States does not represent a quarter of the world's infections. I mean, I've said multiple times that the Johns Hopkins data doesn't represent the REAL numbers because there are a lot of unknowns, but its the numbers that are being reported and that's what I choose to work with.

Please enlighten us all with your knowledge since you have all these links to data that knows the unkown cases...