Coronavirus Thread

[GTRX7]

I wish they would do those charts on a per capita basis. The slope looks pretty similar to other countries, but the scale on the chart makes it impossible to see. On the JH site, we look pretty similar to the UK. I also think its probably better to look at hospitalizations and deaths per capita at this point rather than positive tests. There's no way at 5% of the world's population that we're 35% of the COVID-19 cases. We've tested more than the rest of the world combined. At least with hospitalizations and deaths you have a higher likelihood of comparing apples to apples.

bwelbo, you may be interested in this site (LINK). I posted it a while back, but there is so much information going back and forth. I think it is the best way to track how countries are doing relative to one another. It tracks the progression of the ratio of new cases per week (or deaths) vs total cases (or deaths). It also uses a logarithmic scale to account for exponential growth. Those attributes account for both different relative start dates in different countries and different relative populations. It shows that virtually all counties start on the same exponential growth path, and which countries have been able to stop that and drop the growth rate off of that exponential path (and how quickly and how far). You can also select subsets of countries to compare one to another. For example, you can plot Finland, Denmark, Switzerland, and Sweden to get an idea of how much worse the growth has been in Sweden compared to those other countries, particularly its neighbors Finland and Denmark. (You can also ignore China if you want ; )

Here is a video that explains it in a bit more detail:

 

[Deleted member 2897]

A quick look at the number of tests per million population would tell you that we are still far behind other countries, especially those that have beat the thing down. Further, the chart only compares us to European countries, a valid way to look at the trajectory of the comparative curves, provided you keep the difference in sizes of population in mind. Admittedly, a log scale of cases would have worked better, but then they'd have to explain it and lose 3/4ths of their readers.

On the number of cases: this is probably a function of a) the size of our population and b) the relative lack of infections (so far) in tropical and global South countries. There isn't much to report in Africa, for instance, despite 1.3B people. Signs there don't look good, but their share of all cases is still low.

Its a lot easier to run tests on a per capita basis when you have 10 million people than when you have 330 million people. If you look at hospitalizations and deaths per capita, we're still better than a large portion of main Europe. I don't trust a lot of other countries' data, but at least you'd have a better chance of accurate comparisons than with testing. There's absolutely no way 35% of the world's cases are in the US.

 

[Milwaukee]

Here’s another example of a death being counted as a china virus death:

 

[GoldZ]

Irony? More like numbers involved at each source to begin with, huh?

 

[bobongo]

View attachment 8293

I know there is more to these numbers but the irony in the large percentage and the graphic at the bottom is hard to miss.

Yeah, I'll bet there's a LOT more to those numbers. I would just guess that most nursing home residents who die are never admitted to the hospital. They just die in the nursing home. And many are going uncounted.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Now, you know very well that this isn't true. Right now we are making the best of the numbers that we can, but it is obvious - to me, at least - who is using them insincerely to push an agenda and who is using scientific standards to draw conclusions. (If you are talking about personal opinions concerning scientific results, that's another story.) That's why I try to never quote news stories here and instead provide links to the actual studies, if possible, or to qualified critics if not. Imho, one way to cut down on the volume of cites to subjective opinion here would be for more os us to do that and quit with the Breitbart and co. cites. Sure, that would mean more looking at studies that we can't figure out completely; that happens with me a fair amount. It would also show us pretty clearly who was misrepresenting or misunderstanding the studies in question.

Btw, do you use a Mac? Maybe that's the source of the slowdown.

First of all, the marine vet made maybe 2 statements in what he was saying that were political; all the rest was an appeal to common sense.
Second, I do not use a Mac, so, if you do, yes, maybe that's the problem. I know absolutely nothing about Mac's

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Good luck running a nursing home without needing to expose the residents to nurses and employees of the nursing home. So, if you are going to completely isolate nursing home residents, you have to completely isolate those workers as well. Oh, and then also their families. Oh, and also any of the people that visit any of the stores that those people have to go to for essential supplies like groceries and drug stores etc. You get the point. Until we can effectively test and track (or get the infected population low enough like it may be in rural areas like you speak of, but isn't in a HUGE majority of the country), you cannot physically just isolate only those most vulnerable.

You could say the exact same thing about doctors and nurses and office assistants that come into contact with anyone who possibly might have Covid, and that would be totally devoid of any measure of common sense. The nursing home residents can be protected as much as possible, by requiring appropriate masks, gloves, and gowns for all the staff.

 

[LibertyTurns]

View attachment 8293

I know there is more to these numbers but the irony in the large percentage and the graphic at the bottom is hard to miss.

Approx 95% of the population lives in a house, condo/apartment or mobile home. That’s roughly 315 million people. You have about a 70% likelihood of going to the hospital from the Wuhan virus as the average bear.

4% live in a nursing home or assisted living facility or roughly 13 million people. You have 5.5x the chance of getting hospitalized due to the Wuhan virus as the average bear.

.7% are incarcerated or approx 2.3 million people & another .2% are homeless or about 700k. The incarcerated are a bit more likely (1.5 x) and those homeless are about 15x as likely as getting hospitalized from the Wuhan virus.

It’s all in how you paint the picture, but based on this I’d rather live at home by a large margin. Jail is the next best place followed by a nursing home/care facility and the worst place is the streets. Is this surprising?

There’s lies & then there’s statistics. Sometime the statistics are way worse then just flat out lying.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Here’s another example of a death being counted as a china virus death:

Why shouldn’t she be counted as a Coronavirus death?

 

[FredJacket]

Why shouldn’t she be counted as a Coronavirus death?

Who pays you to take @Milwaukee 's bait?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Who pays you to take @Milwaukee 's bait?

I didn’t know if I was missing something. He’s definitely a card carrying member of the immune BHBs. Sad.

 

[LongforDodd]

There is intelligence and then there’s wisdom.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Bill Stanton’s a good guy and this is an excellent read.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3928245

 

[GoldZ]

Bill Stanton’s a good guy and this is an excellent read.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3928245

Good one, Thanks.

 

[684Bee]

This guy probably has some credibility and is worth listening to:

https://inside.upmc.com/shapiro-economy-roundtable/

 

[bobongo]

Bill Stanton’s a good guy and this is an excellent read.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3928245

I think we should extricate ourselves, as quickly as is optimally feasible, from all medical manufacturing ties and reliance upon, China. Also anything even remotely related to any military-related supplies or components.

 

[bobongo]

CDC Opening Guidelines Squelched:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...reopening-country/ar-BB13IuyC?ocid=spartandhp

From the article:
"It was supposed to be published last Friday, but agency scientists were told the guidance “would never see the light of day,” according to a CDC official."

 

[takethepoints]

Its a lot easier to run tests on a per capita basis when you have 10 million people than when you have 330 million people. If you look at hospitalizations and deaths per capita, we're still better than a large portion of main Europe. I don't trust a lot of other countries' data, but at least you'd have a better chance of accurate comparisons than with testing. There's absolutely no way 35% of the world's cases are in the US.

I don't see why you doubt the US death and cases figures, given that you cite our larger population in your first sentence. As I say above, I think that's one reason for the greater toll the virus is taking here. Besides, the actual question being examined by the graphs is the course of the pandemic in each country. For that all that you need is to compare the slopes over time.

 

[takethepoints]

First of all, the marine vet made maybe 2 statements in what he was saying that were political; all the rest was an appeal to common sense.
Second, I do not use a Mac, so, if you do, yes, maybe that's the problem. I know absolutely nothing about Mac's

Appeals to common sense are notoriously unreliable. See Duncan Watts. 2011. Everything is Obvious Once You Know the Answer. New York: Crown Business. As I say every two months or so, everybody should read this book.

I doubt that it is. I've looked into this a bit more and I think it may be heavy use of our ISP in this neighborhood and the giant number of responses in this thread.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I don't see why you doubt the US death and cases figures, given that you cite our larger population in your first sentence. As I say above, I think that's one reason for the greater toll the virus is taking here. Besides, the actual question being examined by the graphs is the course of the pandemic in each country. For that all that you need is to compare the slopes over time.

I never said I doubted the US death and cases figure. In fact I said the opposite - I don't put as much credence in other countries' numbers.