It is also possible that deaths in the more locked down locations are only pushed out instead of avoided. If you look at the generic epidemiology charts, when you flatten the curve, you extend it out for a much longer time. There were concerns a few weeks ago that the tail on the IHME model wasn't long enough. In areas that had passed the peaks, the drop off wasn't happening as fast as the model had predicted. I don't know it to be the case, but that would make sense from looking at the generic charts.
You have to consider exceeding medical capacity, but IF flattening the curve as much as we have hasn't reduced the number of deaths, but only extended the time it takes to reach them, then it isn't just a question of lives vs money. It is possible that a certain number of people will die no matter how much things are shut down. At that point it would only be how much economic pain we want to suffer. It is possible that if we stay completely shut down for 18 months that a vaccine might be available and actually save some of those lives. A vaccine isn't certain. The economic pain from extending this type of shutdown for 18 months would end up costing lives. The meat industry is having issues. If meat becomes unavailable or too expensive for the majority of people vegans might be happy. However, vegetable farmers have been concerned that they won't be able to harvest their crops. If meat, fruits, and vegetables become unavailable or too expensive for the majority of people there will be more deaths from starvation than from COVID-19.
The shut downs happened to try to keep from stressing medical capacity. Doing a hard shut down made sense at the time. We should have immediately started looking for things that little to no chance of spreading infection and reopening those things. We should have been looking for ways to allow people to work with lowered chance of becoming infected. That isn't just for being able to reopen closed businesses, but to protect workers in essential businesses also. It doesn't have to be only a lives-vs-money balance. If we don't protect the food supply workers, then there won't be food for the rest to eat. If we keep paying more money to the non-essential business employees through unemployment than the food supply workers make working, then eventually there will be a revolt by food supply workers. I don't expect a slaughter house to be able to determine what they should do. We should try to establish some guidelines: separation, ventilation, sanitation, quality of masks and other PPE, etc. Release such guidelines and there will be work for: industrial engineers(separation), HVAC contractors(ventilation), chemical companies(sanitation), paper or clothing companies(masks, PPE).
Those proposals are just generic ideas on my part. My point is we should be trying to both protect people and allow them to be productive. We need to be opening businesses/activities that are low risk for infection. We need to be looking for ways to protect people at other businesses/activities. Orange County California asked the governor to just tell them what the rules are to open beaches, like Ventura County, and they will follow them. Waffle House asked the Georgia governor for the regulations to be able to open and said that they will follow them. I don't know that restaurants are a good idea at this point and I don't know that the regulations for restaurants in Georgia are effective. However, people are willing to abide by whatever reasonable regulations enable them to do more. At some point (and actually already happening somewhat) people are just going to ignore all regulations and do whatever they want to.
It isn't just lives-vs-money. It is how many lives are actually saved/lost if we remain where we are or if we increase the medical burden closer to capacity. It is how many lives will be lost if the food supply is impacted greatly. It is how many lives will be lost if we enter a depression like in the 1930s. There is so much more impacted and at stake. Those don't make it on the news because it takes longer to discuss than sound bites and bickering with no actual discussion of ideas.
