Coronavirus Thread

[Deleted member 2897]

I'd be curious to see where you get that info. The CNN article I read said they locked down travel from Wuhan only 1-2 days before the US did. They did use temperature screening starting around January 20th.

Fundamentally, Taiwan did not believe China or the WHO. The rest of the world did.

The short story is that Taiwan's CDC-equivalent does and did their '1 job' and they have a super police state around this stuff (they have almost 100,000 people in a police-enforced isolated quarantine right now).

Google "Taiwan Coronavirus". They started inspecting passengers from China in late December. They saw evidence of the severity of the virus at the end of last year, which is what the rest of the world didn't. So they had an advantage. They emailed WHO to inquire if they were seeing person to person transmission at end of December too. China had convinced WHO to exclude Taiwan back in the past, so Taiwan has all kinds of extra reasons to not trust China. Taiwan had 150,000 people in quarantine during SARS, so they've had a long previous experience with diseases like these.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tai...e-country-contained-coronavirus-spread-2020-4
https://www.foxnews.com/world/taiwa...ing-unheeded-warning-to-who-about-coronavirus
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/asia/taiwan-coronavirus-response-who-intl-hnk/index.html

Travel specific info (there is a lot out there)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Taiwan#Travel_notices

 

[Wrecked]

The problem with that statement is that the 2 countries are employing very different testing strategies. Norway is testing as many people as it can, Sweden is only testing those showing significant symptoms - 2 very different populations. Norway has tested 24.4 people per 1,000, Sweden has tested 7.37 people per 1,000. So their lower case number is due to differences in testing. If they tested as much as Norway the number of positive tests would change quite a bit.

I will say that another board that i discuss Coronavirus on that has a wide distribution of posters from around the world and the feeling is that Sweden's approach has largely been a failure. Their death rate is high compared to their neighbors and their case rate is only lower due to artificial lack of testing. I actually have Swedish heritage so I have a soft spot for the country, but to say that their plan has been successful is disengenuous.

I too have been following Sweden closely as there approach was definitely different than most of Europe. I agree with Red that looking at cases and new cases are hard due to differing standards for testing, so I look at the deaths per million. Sweden is at 139, US is at 105. So comparing to the US they are trailing, but they are way better than some other countries in Europe.

The did push some social distancing measures, closing bars, restricting the at risk population and closing high schools and universities. However they didn't close elementary schools. Looking at their demographics for their deaths, they have had no deaths below the age group of 40 (hopefully it can stay that way).

Ultimately their success is going to be measured if there really is a herd immunity to the virus. If so, and they were able to hit that number, then while the rest of the world shuts down for round two and starts having to count deaths again (lets pray that isn't the case), they can remain open.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

 

[FredJacket]

Help me understand better. I've been in and out following this thread. I appreciate the "analysis" throughout. But I have what are probably dumb/elementary questions if anyone will indulge me.

MOST of the analysis being presented is in the aggregate for the US. That seems inadequate. The US is a very large country compared to any of the European countries everyone keeps using for comparison. I appreciate the per capita comparisons; but there is another element to the spread of the virus... geography. It hit major metropolitan areas first and hard (before adequate mitigation). Many of those cities are on the back side of 'peaking' now and many more are hitting peak this week, I think. When you say the "new cases" are not going down... in the aggregate that may be true; but I would think it is good/better news that not only are the numbers of new cases leveling/staying same; but their dispersion (geographically) across the country (assuming that is true). Oversimplification... but if we have 30k new cases in a day and 80% are in NY/NJ... that is different than if only 20% are there and the other 80% spread relatively evenly across the country. The latter (I would think) is much easier to control further spread and care for those sick.

These state by state projections are not great IMO (have improved with updates); but the best we have to try to get some fidelity regionally. My scan of a few states leads one to believe the risk of overwhelming healthcare systems in most places in this country is really low right now. I know these models assume lockdowns and social distancing continues. But frankly, the news seems pretty positive going forward. If anything.. with these projections they've "overestimated" the cases/deaths.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Dayam, daily deaths up sharply again to 4,600 yesterday.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/corona...untries-that-had-been-lightly-hit-11587031743

After several low days of 8, 8, 10, 7, 3, etc. in my county, we had a near record 23 yesterday. At the state level, after peaking at 275-300 cases, then dropping to 115 statewide 2 days ago, we about hit a brand new daily record yesterday. I found this chart, which seems to show an acceleration of cases. Still mind boggling given we've been shutdown for over a month.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Take a look at Taiwan. They never implemented a lockdown and only went with social distancing on April 1st.

Six total deaths thus far.

VERY aggressive contact tracing and quarantining policies. Government issued a cell phone if you tested positive and tracked you to insure you stayed in quarantine.

And with no assistance whatsoever from WHO, which refuses to acknowledge their existence, per China's rules.

 

[chris975d]

Dayam, daily deaths up sharply again to 4,600 yesterday.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/corona...untries-that-had-been-lightly-hit-11587031743

After several low days of 8, 8, 10, 7, 3, etc. in my county, we had a near record 23 yesterday. At the state level, after peaking at 275-300 cases, then dropping to 115 statewide 2 days ago, we about hit a brand new daily record yesterday. I found this chart, which seems to show an acceleration of cases. Still mind boggling given we've been shutdown for over a month.

Are things really “shut down” though? I don’t see much, if any difference around me. Roads are still crowded as ever, any time of day. I operate a golf course, and I know our industry in this area hasn’t seen any slow down. In fact, demand for golf is up 2-4x. We are taking 300-500 phone calls a day. I’ve not seen anything like this in 25 years of being in the business. We are able to book every single tee time, literally all day long, from the time we open the doors till the time we close them. 7 days a week. People are out everywhere. So are we really locked down? Or have we just shifted where everyone is?

 

[takethepoints]

Help me understand better. I've been in and out following this thread. I appreciate the "analysis" throughout. But I have what are probably dumb/elementary questions if anyone will indulge me.

MOST of the analysis being presented is in the aggregate for the US. That seems inadequate. The US is a very large country compared to any of the European countries everyone keeps using for comparison. I appreciate the per capita comparisons; but there is another element to the spread of the virus... geography. It hit major metropolitan areas first and hard (before adequate mitigation). Many of those cities are on the back side of 'peaking' now and many more are hitting peak this week, I think. When you say the "new cases" are not going down... in the aggregate that may be true; but I would think it is good/better news that not only are the numbers of new cases leveling/staying same; but their dispersion (geographically) across the country (assuming that is true). Oversimplification... but if we have 30k new cases in a day and 80% are in NY/NJ... that is different than if only 20% are there and the other 80% spread relatively evenly across the country. The latter (I would think) is much easier to control further spread and care for those sick.

These state by state projections are not great IMO (have improved with updates); but the best we have to try to get some fidelity regionally. My scan of a few states leads one to believe the risk of overwhelming healthcare systems in most places in this country is really low right now. I know these models assume lockdowns and social distancing continues. But frankly, the news seems pretty positive going forward. If anything.. with these projections they've "overestimated" the cases/deaths.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

I think in general it is better to think of the US as Europe. You are right; there is a lot of variation between states and within them. I'm not sure about the idea that it would be easier to control the virus if 80% of the cases were spread out, however. It is bad that so many cases are concentrated in our urban areas, but that is where the best medical facilities, staff, and research capabilities are as well. If the virus were to move into rural areas in force, the capabilities available to combat it would be much more difficult to find and deliver. The closing of so many rural (small city, actually) hospitals hasn't bitten us hard yet, but it could if we aren't lucky. Example: we have a house in Highlands up in North Carolina. Macon County sent us a letter asking us to stay away because the hospital facilities in the county are so limited.

I also think the news is fairly positive, if the projections about the virus's progress are correct. Because that's what's driving this: projections from fairly standard epidemiological models. As you pointed out earlier, when the forecasts are positive, everyone believes them; when they aren't everybody says they are, "Just models!" I think we have to be careful with how we evaluate projections that have been made; the picture is fluctuating and we are a long way from being at the end of this. The initial low end estimate of deaths - 100K - seems likely to me, but, again if we are lucky, we may not reach that until early fall. It is useful to know that the public has been attentive enough to keep infections rates down. We'll have to see what happens as we move forward. If we start to spike again there will be pressure to not shut down to the same extent. But I think that we will be able to since I doubt that "opening up" will actual have much effect on consumers; too many are already unemployed and I'm sure not going to a movie theater or restaurant until we get a vaccine up, if we do.

Well, enough.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Are things really “shut down” though? I don’t see much, if any difference around me. Roads are still crowded as ever, any time of day. I operate a golf course, and I know our industry in this area hasn’t seen any slow down. In fact, demand for golf is up 2-4x. We are taking 300-500 phone calls a day. I’ve not seen anything like this in 25 years of being in the business. We are able to book every single tee time, literally all day long, from the time we open the doors till the time we close them. 7 days a week. People are out everywhere. So are we really locked down? Or have we just shifted where everyone is?

Our roads in the Charleston area have a small fraction of the normal traffic. We don't have any traffic jams, even during rush hour, and it used to be a disaster. All restaurants and all kinds of other stuff is shut down. There are definitely people out and about, but the most important thing is that they shouldn't be congregating in groups. So as long as that isn't happening, we should be seeing a huge change in transmission of the disease. I am not a part of it, but it feels like to me the only real large gathering of people anymore is at grocery stores and hardware stores and stuff like that.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Are things really “shut down” though? I don’t see much, if any difference around me. Roads are still crowded as ever, any time of day. I operate a golf course, and I know our industry in this area hasn’t seen any slow down. In fact, demand for golf is up 2-4x. We are taking 300-500 phone calls a day. I’ve not seen anything like this in 25 years of being in the business. We are able to book every single tee time, literally all day long, from the time we open the doors till the time we close them. 7 days a week. People are out everywhere. So are we really locked down? Or have we just shifted where everyone is?

Are shopping centers and individual retail stores not selling "necessary" items still open? In Augusta, there seems to be less traffic on road, but I really haven't been out and about that much, but I don't know of any retail stores or dine-in restaurants here that are open. The Augusta Mall is closed. All movie theaters are closed. Are such places open where you are?

 

[takethepoints]

Are things really “shut down” though? I don’t see much, if any difference around me. Roads are still crowded as ever, any time of day. I operate a golf course, and I know our industry in this area hasn’t seen any slow down. In fact, demand for golf is up 2-4x. We are taking 300-500 phone calls a day. I’ve not seen anything like this in 25 years of being in the business. We are able to book every single tee time, literally all day long, from the time we open the doors till the time we close them. 7 days a week. People are out everywhere. So are we really locked down? Or have we just shifted where everyone is?

The present situation is strange. I read somewhere (can't find it) that when we have a usual economic downturn it is institutional; i.e. 100% of all business are down (say) 50%. This one is a natural disaster: 50% of businesses are down 100%. Half the country (roughly) is still at work, like you, and those businesses are working overtime.

It's a query how this will turn out. The US and the EU were already headed toward a recession later this year; growth rates were decreasing in all developed countries. Now we have this on top of that. Further, China, whose 6% growth rates pulled the rest of the world out of 2007-8, is growing very slowly now and for the near future. Then there are the "emerging economies"; those are either in the dumpster already or headed there. Oth, governments all over have decided that we are at war and dithering about debt is a waste of time. We'll see.

 

[gthxxxx]

FYI: before extrapolating statistics from a data set to draw conclusions about a population, make sure the data set is randomly sampled and representative of the population. There's a heap of other complications that follows afterwards, but no point in exploring after failing step 1.

 

[Wrecked]

Are things really “shut down” though? I don’t see much, if any difference around me. Roads are still crowded as ever, any time of day. I operate a golf course, and I know our industry in this area hasn’t seen any slow down. In fact, demand for golf is up 2-4x. We are taking 300-500 phone calls a day. I’ve not seen anything like this in 25 years of being in the business. We are able to book every single tee time, literally all day long, from the time we open the doors till the time we close them. 7 days a week. People are out everywhere. So are we really locked down? Or have we just shifted where everyone is?

It is state dependent. In Maryland, we cannot leave home except to go to work, a restaurant for takout or a grocery store. Pharmacies and hardware stores are also open but that is it. Parks, golf courses and schools are closed. We have to wear masks at threat of arrest if we go out. We are definitely shut down here.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

As we compare countries and regions, keep in mind that being overweight has shown to be a major complicating factor for ending up in the hospital or dying. The United States is overweight unlike any other country in the world. It already significantly impacts our regular mortality rates and healthcare costs significantly.

According to the CDC, several years ago about 72% of the country was overweight, which is mind boggling. The numbers are no doubt worse today than they were then.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hestat/obesity_adult_15_16/obesity_adult_15_16.pdf
(numbers in first paragraph)

 

[takethepoints]

And here's another take on the states and their relative position on COVID-19. See:

https://www.bradford-delong.com/202...alence-of-coronavirus-across-states.html#more

This has a useful set of graphs about the states at the top. You'll have to use your screen adjust to get them big enough to read; Brad hasn't provided a bigger version. Bad news = Georgia doesn't show up all that well on these stats.

 

[chris975d]

Are shopping centers and individual retail stores not selling "necessary" items still open? In Augusta, there seems to be less traffic on road, but I really haven't been out and about that much, but I don't know of any retail stores or dine-in restaurants here that are open. The Augusta Mall is closed. All movie theaters are closed. Are such places open where you are?

Shopping centers and malls are shut down, but I’m just seeing people shift where they are going. I see 45 minute long lines to get into Home Depot, Lowes, local hardware stores, Walmart, etc. People are piling into parks, and like us, golf courses. I really don’t see people staying home. Roads are crowded. In fact people just get out and drive. Seems like no one knows how to stay home and entertain themselves. I haven’t seen a drop in traffic at all. And think about that...those cars need fuel. Gas pump handles are almost always overlooked in terms of disinfecting, and handled numerous times a day.

In this profession, I talk to literally hundreds of people a week. The demographics of our customer base show that golfers have, on average, a much higher education level than the average person. But yet I’m asking golfers to separate/maintain social distancing probably 2 out of every 3 customers that come up to the pro shop...asking them to please obey the signage and 6 ft reference marks on the concrete and pro shop floor, and I get so many responses along the lines of “oh come on, you aren’t pushing that social distancing nonsense too, are you?” Those responses coming from a “highly educated” demographic. I still feel, and think my observations validate, that lots of people still don’t think of this as a serious matter.

 

[takethepoints]

FYI: before extrapolating statistics from a data set to draw conclusions about a population, make sure the data set is randomly sampled and representative of the population. There's a heap of other complications that follows afterwards, but no point in exploring after failing step 1.

There's nothing sacred about random samples; they can be misleading as well, but, at least, you can estimate how likely that is. With the virus, however, you are right. One thing we need to do Real Soon Now is start random samples of the population to estimate real infection rates with antibody tests. And test for the virus massively as well.

But … right now the house is on fire and we don't have anything like water. Until we do, we'll have to use the data we have and make the right noises about accuracy. Any data is better then none.

 

[chris975d]

The present situation is strange. I read somewhere (can't find it) that when we have a usual economic downturn it is institutional; i.e. 100% of all business are down (say) 50%. This one is a natural disaster: 50% of businesses are down 100%. Half the country (roughly) is still at work, like you, and those businesses are working overtime.

It's a query how this will turn out. The US and the EU were already headed toward a recession later this year; growth rates were decreasing in all developed countries. Now we have this on top of that. Further, China, whose 6% growth rates pulled the rest of the world out of 2007-8, is growing very slowly now and for the near future. Then there are the "emerging economies"; those are either in the dumpster already or headed there. Oth, governments all over have decided that we are at war and dithering about debt is a waste of time. We'll see.

Yes, it is very strange. Again, I’ve never seen anything like this. I’ve worked in the industry through the “Tiger Woods boom”, and that was nothing like this. I’ve never turned away so many customers across all 7 days of the week as we are now...I simply can’t take all of them due to the social distancing measures I’ve put in place. I couldn’t even take all of these customers even if I didn’t have a single distancing measure...it’s maddening. My staff and I are exhausted at the end of every day. For example...we did 140+ single cart rider (one person per golf cart) this past Monday...that’s the same work load as a 280+ golfer day pre-coronavirus...on a MONDAY. And we are doing that every single day since the coronavirus situation started.

 

[Techster]

Never change Florida. America thanks you for keeping the other 49 states entertained.

 

[gthxxxx]

There's nothing sacred about random samples; they can be misleading as well, but, at least, you can estimate how likely that is. With the virus, however, you are right. One thing we need to do Real Soon Now is start random samples of the population to estimate real infection rates with antibody tests. And test for the virus massively as well.

But … right now the house is on fire and we don't have anything like water. Until we do, we'll have to use the data we have and make the right noises about accuracy. Any data is better then none.

Random sampling reduces sampling bias. It is statistically impossible for random sampling to be more misleading than nonrandom sampling. If your data set isn't random by some deliberate measure, just add that qualifier to your conclusion. Any data does not have to be better than none; it can also have the same value as none. When misrepresented, then it can also be worse than none.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Shopping centers and malls are shut down, but I’m just seeing people shift where they are going. I see 45 minute long lines to get into Home Depot, Lowes, local hardware stores, Walmart, etc. People are piling into parks, and like us, golf courses. I really don’t see people staying home. Roads are crowded. In fact people just get out and drive. Seems like no one knows how to stay home and entertain themselves. I haven’t seen a drop in traffic at all. And think about that...those cars need fuel. Gas pump handles are almost always overlooked in terms of disinfecting, and handled numerous times a day.

In this profession, I talk to literally hundreds of people a week. The demographics of our customer base show that golfers have, on average, a much higher education level than the average person. But yet I’m asking golfers to separate/maintain social distancing probably 2 out of every 3 customers that come up to the pro shop...asking them to please obey the signage and 6 ft reference marks on the concrete and pro shop floor, and I get so many responses along the lines of “oh come on, you aren’t pushing that social distancing nonsense too, are you?” Those responses coming from a “highly educated” demographic. I still feel, and think my observations validate, that lots of people still don’t think of this as a serious matter.

WOW, that sure is different from Augusta. I almost never go to Walmart, but I did last Saturday afternoon to get something I couldn't get anywhere else. There were lots of cars in the parking lot, but I was in and out of the store with what I needed in 15 minutes. Roads are in no way crowded here; there is still traffic on them, but when I have been out, there has been far less traffic than there was before this. I haven't been to the downtown area, but I would imagine it is pretty much empty right now. I live perhaps 100 yards from the Augusta Country Club, and I haven't noticed any more or less golfers on the course than before. Things are obviously different in your neck of the woods. At least you are staying busy, so that is good.