Coronavirus Thread

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takethepoints

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RonJohn said:
There is a patient in Floyd County, GA who tested positive. According to the news report, when she first visited the hospital with symptoms, they couldn't test her for COVID-19 because she didn't meet the testing criteria. When she returned to the hospital with very bad symptoms the hospital admitted her but was still not allowed to test her. The hospital petitioned for permission to test her, and she tested positive.

The death rate stats are all useless. There are many more cases in the US than are being reported, since only a small number of people are actually being tested. The death rate stats are trash. The spread rate stats are trash, because it isn't known what the current infection rate actually is, nor what the actual infection rate a week ago actually was. The only stat that is known is how many people who were tested do have the virus. Since the number of people tested is so low, the data is useless for any statistical analysis.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/fl...s-cdc-now-testing/YWK6AIO7UNHU7PVMINX26ZA3HM/
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Well … the present data from China can be used for extrapolation. See:

https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/what-if-we-do-develop-covid-19-antivirals/

Pretty sobering, but this is definitely a worst case scenario. It is looking at what the CFR would be at different "attack rates" (i.e. different rates of infection) for the whole population of the country. Since we know that the entire population won't be exposed in the first place (if the flu can't do it, neither can COVID-19), the number of deaths will be lower. Problem = we don't know how much lower. Even bigger problem = the population that will be hit the hardest, no matter how many are exposed, are on Medicare. Even much bigger problem = the recent $8.3 billion for testing and the like is the least of our problems if even a relatively small part of the population is exposed. The cost burden will be pretty severe.

We needed to ramp up the production of testing kits several months ago when we already knew that we could face a major problem. Why we didn't will prove a very interesting story in coming months, especially if deaths escalate as they might.

(Btw, I'm 73. I really, really hope that the CFRs cited in scenario above aren't realistic. Unfortunately, I'm pretty sure they are.)

ps: You might also look at:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

This is the WHO mission report on China and its approach to the virus. Lots of useful information about the spread and control of COVID-19 there.
 
LibertyTurns

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Maybe if the media, the government & scumbag politicians weren’t constantly deceiving us, perhaps we’d believe the numbers and take more precautions. Right now it smells like one big scam.
 
Supersizethatorder-mutt

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LibertyTurns said:
Maybe if the media, the government & scumbag politicians weren’t constantly deceiving us, perhaps we’d believe the numbers and take more precautions. Right now it smells like one big scam.
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I had a doctor's appointment yesterday and asked the doc what his thoughts were about the virus. He didn't have time to talk, but he said he thought it was pretty much overblown. I have another appointment in 2 weeks with a pulmonary specialist (annual appointment, nothing HOPEFULLY wrong), and I will really be interested in hearing what he has to say about it.
 
LibertyTurns

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Supersizethatorder-mutt said:
I had a doctor's appointment yesterday and asked the doc what his thoughts were about the virus. He didn't have time to talk, but he said he thought it was pretty much overblown. I have another appointment in 2 weeks with a pulmonary specialist (annual appointment, nothing HOPEFULLY wrong), and I will really be interested in hearing what he has to say about it.
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Don’t watch GT sports before your appt then
 
RonJohn

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takethepoints said:
Well … the present data from China can be used for extrapolation. See:

https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/what-if-we-do-develop-covid-19-antivirals/

Pretty sobering, but this is definitely a worst case scenario. It is looking at what the CFR would be at different "attack rates" (i.e. different rates of infection) for the whole population of the country. Since we know that the entire population won't be exposed in the first place (if the flu can't do it, neither can COVID-19), the number of deaths will be lower. Problem = we don't know how much lower. Even bigger problem = the population that will be hit the hardest, no matter how many are exposed, are on Medicare. Even much bigger problem = the recent $8.3 billion for testing and the like is the least of our problems if even a relatively small part of the population is exposed. The cost burden will be pretty severe.
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First, that blog post was written by an employee of a bio-tech company and argues that the government should spend whatever bio-tech and pharmaceutical companies demand without any public backlash. Any conflict of interest?

Secondly, the blog post is poorly written, especially for an employee of a bio-tech company. I work at a small company. When I have written blog posts and magazine articles, my company sends them an outside editorial company. They don't edit my content, but do: change words, change sentence order/structure, add transition elements, etc. to make the articles more pleasant to read. I would think a bio-tech company would do the same.

Finally, this isn't "extrapolated" data. He takes bad data (which he admits is bad) and multiplies it by arbitrary numbers. He multiplies the death rate by 1/2. His justification? He knows that it is probably less than what has been reported, but infection rates might be higher. In other words, it is simply a guess.

takethepoints said:
(Btw, I'm 73. I really, really hope that the CFRs cited in scenario above aren't realistic. Unfortunately, I'm pretty sure they are.)
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I would almost guarantee that the rates in the article are not realistic. It is only "almost" because even a blindfolded person throwing darts has a chance of hitting a bulls-eye.

What would you do if you knew that a few hundred people in your community were infected with this virus? Do that now. Do what the CDC has been recommending: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/home/get-your-household-ready-for-COVID-19.html

Unfortunately what many people are going to do is: Ignore the CDC recommendations. Panic when there are confirmed cases in their community. Follow some "fad" recommendations from Facebook (stigmatizing infected people, wearing nitrite gloves, purchasing face masks, purchasing sterilizing air locks for their doors, etc) The really bad thing is that people will follow such fads and still ignore the CDC recommendations, like wearing nitrite gloves but still touching their eyes.
 

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takethepoints said:
We needed to ramp up the production of testing kits several months ago when we already knew that we could face a major problem. Why we didn't will prove a very interesting story in coming months, especially if deaths escalate as they might.
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Apparently there was a regulation nobody was aware of that required FDA approval for production and only a single or small number of vendors and production was currently approved. That regulation has since been killed.
 

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Not trying to belittle what this is, but hopefully the world’s scientists are studying and capturing all the data they can on this. It’s kind of a great dry run practice for if an Ebola-like virus ever took off. Rather than having to rely on models for how something might spread, we have real data.
 

MWBATL

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bwelbo said:
The death rate of the Flu this year was 0.05% by that math (18k / 32m). So far the Coronavirus appears more contagious and has a death rate about 4% - 80x higher. That's why it has all the attention - if it spreads like the Flu did, we'd have 4% * 32 million cases = 1.3 million deaths. I don't see any indication it will remotely approach those numbers, but a death rate 80x on a more contagious virus perks the medical community's ears up.
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Yeah, but it's not.

Because we have so much more experience with the flu and have easy tests available everywhere, millions of people have bene screened for it, versus a few hundred thousand (if that) who have been screened for coronavirus. Once all the data is in, I'll wager it is about the same as the flu in terms of mortality rate. Those who have had mild cases or no significant symptoms have never been tested, and their mortality rate is 0.000000%
 

MWBATL

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bwelbo said:
Same with the flu.
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No, incorrect. Flu test kits are readily available at every local doctor's office and if there was ANY type of symptom you got tested for it. Coronavirus test have ONLY been available at state testing labs and samples were sent in only very recently IF and ONLY IF there was a strong suspicion of exposure AND you were showing strong symptoms (fever, etc.) Testing has been FAR more limited for coronavirus than the flu.
 
LibertyTurns

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bwelbo said:
Not trying to belittle what this is, but hopefully the world’s scientists are studying and capturing all the data they can on this. It’s kind of a great dry run practice for if an Ebola-like virus ever took off. Rather than having to rely on models for how something might spread, we have real data.
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Maybe instead of all the hand wringing over a more sever form of the flu, we can focus on the real issue: getting China to shutdown their bioterrorism weapons lab in Wuhan? This is getting completely overlooked. There’s a reason the Chinese started locking down cities and it wasn’t some magnanimous gesture. They were about to start killing their own people in large numbers.
 

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MWBATL said:
No, incorrect. Flu test kits are readily available at every local doctor's office and if there was ANY type of symptom you got tested for it. Coronavirus test have ONLY been available at state testing labs and samples were sent in only very recently IF and ONLY IF there was a strong suspicion of exposure AND you were showing strong symptoms (fever, etc.) Testing has been FAR more limited for coronavirus than the flu.
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That’s not what I said. And that’s also false.

You can get the Flu and have no symptoms. You can get the Flu and have mild symptoms. Many people get the Flu and they just hunker down at home.
 

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LibertyTurns said:
Maybe instead of all the hand wringing over a more sever form of the flu, we can focus on the real issue: getting China to shutdown their bioterrorism weapons lab in Wuhan? This is getting completely overlooked. There’s a reason the Chinese started locking down cities and it wasn’t some magnanimous gesture. They were about to start killing their own people in large numbers.
Click to expand...

Pretty ironic timing - the Chinese hospital they built to quarantine tons of people just “collapsed”.
 
GT_EE78

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Here's yesterdays "New cases"
I've read that Washington and Cali are supposed to be able to test about 1000 daily now
March 6:
98 new cases and 3 new deaths in the United States, including:
- 1 new case in Rhode Island (third in the state): a female in her 60s, now at home with mild symptoms. who had direct, face-to-face contact with a confirmed case in New York in late February [source]
- 1st case in Nebraska: a woman in her 30s from Douglas county who recently returned from England at the end of February. She started experiencing symptoms and was hospitalized at Methodist Hospital on March 5 [source]
- 1st case in Connecticut: a nurse at Danbury Hospital [source]
- 9 new cases and 3 new deaths in Washington state [source] [source]
- 1st case in Oklahoma: a man in his 50s resident in Tulsa County [source]
- 11 new cases in Calfornia:
- 4 in Santa Clara County [source]
- 3 in Contra Costa County [source]
- 1 in Yolo County [source]
- 3 in Placer County who had traveled on the Grand Princess cruise ship from San Francisco to Mexico Feb. 11-21. Two had mild symptoms that have already resolved; the third currently has mild symptoms. All three are isolated at home and none required hospitalization. [source]
- 21 on the Grand Princess cruise ship off California [source]
- 1st case in Kentucky, Lexington [source]
- 3 in Colorado: 2 residents of Denver [source] and of Colorado Springs: a man in his 40s who had traveled recently to California [source]
- 1st case in Minnesota: an elderly person who had traveled on a cruise ship that had a confirmed case [source]
- 1 in Nevada: the case has a family member who is a student at Huffaker Elementary School in Reno, which has been closed "out of an abundance of caution" [source]
- 1 in Massachusetts: a parent in Wellesley with children in the Upham and Wellesley middle schools, were students were dismissed early in order to fully clean and sanitize the buildings [source]
- 1 in Georgia [source]
- 1 in Indiana (1st in the state): an adult from Marion County who had traveled to Boston recently and had been at an event (Cambridge-based Biogen’s Boston conference) where other people have also tested positive. They returned to Indiana on Wednesday, March 4. [source]
- 1 in North Carolina (Chatham County): a man who had recently returned from Italy
- 2 in Pennsylvania (1st in the state) [source]
- 22 in New York state [source] [source]
- 8 in Westchester County
- 3 in Nassau County [source]
- 11 connected to the original New Rochelle case
- first 2 cases in Colorado (Summit County): 1 is a 30-year old man who had traveled to Italy in February and was in contact with a confirmed case outside of Colorado. [source]
- first 3 cases in Maryland (Montgomery County): they had all recently traveled overseas [source]
 
GT_EE78

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First 2 cases in South Carolina: an elderly woman in Kershaw County who has been hospitalized and an adult woman from Charleston County who had recently traveled to France and Italy [source]
 
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