Cornell

[gtbeak]

Ummm, I though that for the Sunday game, the Ivy League team was supposed to be out of pitching…not the ACC team.

Oof!

Only good news was only 2 walks and 2 HBP. We just got drilled….

Hopefully a one-off, but Cornell's last 6 runs were scored due to Tech outfielders missing catchable balls. It does seem that this year's outfield has more range than the one from last season, but the number of mis-played flyballs is a little concerning. My gut says this will be just a blip on the radar of the entire season, hopefully that is correct, but it bears watching.

 

[gtbeak]

I can move the cutoff to 23 fairly easily, but don't have time right now. Getting ready for Sunday services at church. I'll look at it this afternoon. Moving the cutoff to 21 will eliminate any college kids since they are mostly still in school at 21.

I don't think I understand your question in the last sentence. International free agents are all Latin players who are almost always signed at the age of 16. They usually go to the Dominican Summer League from there, and then at 18 they come to the States and compete in the Complex League system. I think they do get some education equivalent to high school, but they are being trained/coached by the professional team who they signed with and therefore I wouldn't call them high school or college.

Looking at the Braves and eliminating "getting to the majors quickly" as a control variable, they have four college kids who "start". Seam Murphy (Wright St), Spencer Strider (Clemson), Chris Sale (Florida Gulf Coast), and Bryce Elder (Texas). AJ Minter also contributes out of the pen, he went to Texas A&M. Olson, Riley, Kelenic, Harris, Fried, and Morton are high school kids, while Albies, Arcia, Acuna, and Lopez are international signees.

Moving the cutoff age to 23 yields the following:

5 pitchers with 50 or more innings and an ERA+ of 100 or greater: 2 college (Gavin Williams (East Carolina) and Chase Silseth (Arizona)), 1 high school (Reese Olson from North Hall in Georgia), 2 international.

14 hitters with 2.0 or greater fWAR: 2 college (Matt McLain (UCLA) and Zach Gelof (UVa)), 8 high school, 4 international.

 

[THWG]

Well, we can't win them all, but the defense and offense were disappointing today. We hit into a lot of double plays which will be a problem throughout the year, unfortunately.

I didn't think that the pitching was that bad today overall. Patel got hit, but it was pretty much all singles and he didn't walk anyone which was encouraging. Brown pitched very well, and I am still curious as to why he was taken out of the game when he was. And I thought King pitched very well too, but he just didn't get any help from the defense. All in all, a disappointing Sunday.

However, I am very happy with the 6-1 start to the season as we all know it is very difficult to sweep anyone in baseball, and if we can keep going 3-1 every week, we will be hosting! I also am very excited about the pitching depth that we have this year. We have a legit closer in Jones, and 3 solid starters in McGuire, Hill, and Finateri. I know @FittedJacket thinks McGuire will be the Friday starter, but I think the weekend rotation needs to be Hill, Finateri, and McGuire with Patel as the weekday guy. Then, the main guys out of the pen should be King, McKee, Ballard, Brown, and hopefully Busse can find his stuff to get to Jones. I also really liked the way that Barfield pitched yesterday and hope that we can get one more lefty added to the list of reliables in the pen.

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

Hopefully a one-off, but Cornell's last 6 runs were scored due to Tech outfielders missing catchable balls. It does seem that this year's outfield has more range than the one from last season, but the number of mis-played flyballs is a little concerning. My gut says this will be just a blip on the radar of the entire season, hopefully that is correct, but it bears watching.

Actually, I think it was the last 7. 3 in the 6th and 4 in the 9th.

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

@THWG, It was definitely a disappointing way for me to end a great opening week trip listening to that game while driving back home to Cincinnati. I kept hoping that we'd figure it out offensively, but never did. At least I didn't road rage myself off a cliff in the West Virginia mountains! I managed to stay relatively calm...

I hope we're not a bubble NCAA team this year, because a loss like this could put a bubble team on the wrong side of the bubble. I'm hoping Cornell is vastly improved over last year, and will be rooting for them to win the Ivy. To put things into perspective, this is the second non conference win for Cornell since May of 2022. They were 1-13 non conference last year, and that win was against Ithaca College, which is a D3 program...

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Oh well, I leave chat and the wheels fall off. Fact.

Just win the next one.

While 2 BB & 2 HBP is ok, 11 hits isn't great at all. But even with the forgiving scoring, our pitchers only gave up 6 earned runs. The other 5 (more by some accounts here) were unearned. That's bad baseball.

Cornell deserved to win from the 2 innings I watched and the following inning's stats. Kudos to them doing more with less talent. One thing I was contemplating was how the umps / refs control the outcome of the game in baseball less than in basketball or football. This was a solid win for them, we had a solid win on Saturday and a closer affair on Friday. Like @CINCYMETJACKET , I hope it's that Cornell is a lot better this year than last.

As I've said, I think most teams are a lot better with the portal and COVID extension. Where we fall out relative to them will be interesting. We'll find out next weekend. But beat State first!

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

I'm not watching the game on TV, so does anyone know why CDH took Brown out? It looked like he was pitching well and that really made things difficult not getting out of that inning.

If I'm not mistaken, he took Brown out of the Georgia Southern game when he had a 3-1 count on the hitter, which I thought was odd at the time as well. He put in Jones, who immediately walked the hitter (charged to Brown), but then got out of the inning.

 

[THWG]

@THWG, It was definitely a disappointing way for me to end a great opening week trip listening to that game while driving back home to Cincinnati. I kept hoping that we'd figure it out offensively, but never did. At least I didn't road rage myself off a cliff in the West Virginia mountains! I managed to stay relatively calm...

I hope we're not a bubble NCAA team this year, because a loss like this could put a bubble team on the wrong side of the bubble. I'm hoping Cornell is vastly improved over last year, and will be rooting for them to win the Ivy. To put things into perspective, this is the second non conference win for Cornell since May of 2022. They were 1-13 non conference last year, and that win was against Ithaca College, which is a D3 program...

I really don't think that Cornell is a bad team after watching them this weekend. They looked solid, and I bet that they will have a good year in the Ivy League pending any significant injuries.

As for us, the important thing is to be over .500 on ACC play that would automatically get us into the tournament. And with our starting pitching this year (knock on wood for no injuries), I firmly believe that will happen. I really like what I've seen so far from this team. I thought with all of the transfers that we have it would take the guys a month to gel and get used to playing meaningful games with each other. I was wrong about that. The team chemistry is great!

 

[Techcaster572]

I really don't think that Cornell is a bad team after watching them this weekend. They looked solid, and I bet that they will have a good year in the Ivy League pending any significant injuries.

As for us, the important thing is to be over .500 on ACC play that would automatically get us into the tournament. And with our starting pitching this year (knock on wood for no injuries), I firmly believe that will happen. I really like what I've seen so far from this team. I thought with all of the transfers that we have it would take the guys a month to gel and get used to playing meaningful games with each other. I was wrong about that. The team chemistry is great!

THWG
I completely agree.
Cornell is a solid team.
Evidenced by the fact that we have their stud catcher coming to us next year through the portal- Nathan Waugh!

Their hitters are pesky and work counts.

This is baseball and days like today happen.

I thought the pitching was okay overall. Didn't get a lot of help from defense.
Mason Patel is a solid starter or middle relief but I feel he may be more suited to Midweek assignments or long/middle relief. He competes and pounds the zone. His velo is mid to upper 80's and the Cornell hitters put the ball in play. It happens but he didn't give up a walk and that is great.

I too am a bit confused why CDH took Dawson out but he's the coach so that's his call. Brett Thomas seems to be finding his way. He got hit consistently but he throws strikes. That's more important.

Hitting definitely hit into too many dp's. We had multiple guys hit the ball on the barrell yet right at a fielder. Those days occur.

I'm not upset about 6-1.
Uga was down twice by 3 runs late to N. Kentucky and needed a bottom 9 rally of 4 runs to win. They did win both but my point is that Stony Brook beat Lsu and Unc Greensboro beat Wake.
Its baseball.

Overall, let's refocus and come out and take it to Ga State and get ready for uga next weekend.

 

[gtbeak]

Actually, I think it was the last 7. 3 in the 6th and 4 in the 9th.

Yep, you're correct. Thanks for pointing that out.

 

[FredJacket]

As for us, the important thing is to be over .500 on ACC play that would automatically get us into the tournament.

This will be interesting. Seems like a slam dunk you are correct. Over .500 in conference play & we're in.

This year... I'm not so sure. If Tech really is 16-14 (or worse) in ACC... will need our OOC competition to be better than they were last year. Not a single D1 Georgia team made the tournament in 2023. Not good. Not helpful if similar in 2024.

This year's [GT] team... so far... seems to me to have a WIDE range of possibilities. The next 4 games will show us "something" ... 48 games remain & each matters.

Previous opponents records (record v GT):
Radford 2-4 (0-3)
Georgia Southern 2-5 (0-1)
Cornell 1-3 (1-3)

 

[randerto]

Well, we can't win them all, but the defense and offense were disappointing today. We hit into a lot of double plays which will be a problem throughout the year, unfortunately.

I didn't think that the pitching was that bad today overall. Patel got hit, but it was pretty much all singles and he didn't walk anyone which was encouraging. Brown pitched very well, and I am still curious as to why he was taken out of the game when he was. And I thought King pitched very well too, but he just didn't get any help from the defense. All in all, a disappointing Sunday.

However, I am very happy with the 6-1 start to the season as we all know it is very difficult to sweep anyone in baseball, and if we can keep going 3-1 every week, we will be hosting! I also am very excited about the pitching depth that we have this year. We have a legit closer in Jones, and 3 solid starters in McGuire, Hill, and Finateri. I know @FittedJacket thinks McGuire will be the Friday starter, but I think the weekend rotation needs to be Hill, Finateri, and McGuire with Patel as the weekday guy. Then, the main guys out of the pen should be King, McKee, Ballard, Brown, and hopefully Busse can find his stuff to get to Jones. I also really liked the way that Barfield pitched yesterday and hope that we can get one more lefty added to the list of reliables in the pen.

I would add Riley Stanford to the list of pitchers who will likely contribute significantly out of the pen - you could see his potential in his first-ever GT outing this weekend. He has good shut-down potential from the mound...

 

[GT33]

ugh, missed the game & it looked like a disaster.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

This will be interesting. Seems like a slam dunk you are correct. Over .500 in conference play & we're in.

This year... I'm not so sure. If Tech really is 16-14 (or worse) in ACC... will need our OOC competition to be better than they were last year. Not a single D1 Georgia team made the tournament in 2023. Not good. Not helpful if similar in 2024.

This year's [GT] team... so far... seems to me to have a WIDE range of possibilities. The next 4 games will show us "something" ... 48 games remain & each matters.

Previous opponents records (record v GT):
Radford 2-4 (0-3)
Georgia Southern 2-5 (0-1)
Cornell 1-3 (1-3)

Agree. To make the NCAAs, I think we need a winning ACC record and an RPI under 45 (40 would be better). If we are like 20-10 ACC* of course the RPI will be good enough. But if we are like 16-14 and have an RPI of 50, I don't think we make it. That's where the weak SoS we have hurts; it's fair since those are the "rules" and they haven't been changed.

*30 ACC games based on 27 regular season and 3 ACC tourney.

100% on WIDE range of possibilities. We have a 4.29 ERA against the expected weakest part of our schedule. But we've learned that we have a lot of quality depth. Is it high enough quality? I don't think that the pitchers are going to get markedly better or worse in the next 3 months; most have been playing for many years with many teams and had fall ball and spring practice.

After this weekend, I am back to thinking that the D is a big question too. It just compounds the pitching uncertainty.

Just beat 2-5 Georgia State.

 

[57jacket]

Georgia Tech baseball weekly report

At the start of each week throughout the regular season, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution will take a closer look at the Georgia Tech baseball team.

www.ajc.com

 

[stinger78]

This datapoint says to me it doesn't make too much of a difference for hitters if they choose the college route or going pro out of high school, but pitchers seem to be advantaged by going the college route. To be honest, I expected the opposite, but the facts are the facts. Is my definition of solid, young MLB player a good one?

To answer your last question first, I think you’re model is good though your sample is small considering the huge number of baseball players entering the system each year. You might try going multiple years and then controlling for years as a moderating variable. There might be significant variation year to year.

The pitching advantage of college players is intuitive to me. I consider good college ball as a rough equivalent of AA ball. Pitching against AA ball equivalent for 3 years will force a P to develop his craft more than 3 years spent at R, A, A+, and AA ball. IMPO, successful college P’s have a better chance to see the majors sooner than non-college draftees. So, your analysis makes sense, at least to me. Thanks for the work.