Odds are close to zero that the ACC exist in its current form past 2036.
In its current form, ACC still has FSU. Zero percent chance FSU is still in the ACC after 2036. To be honest, the ACC itself may not want FSU in this conference after 2036. I've held the opinion that FSU doesn't make it to 2030 in the ACC, and I'll stand by it.
Clemson is actively exploring ways out, but they're doing it differently from FSU. They are treading lightly. My caveat with Clemson is they are not B1G material, and it will be interesting to see if the SEC values the Clemson brand as "additive" since they already have a school in SC...which is not a big state. Do they have something up their sleeve to even explore trying to get out of the GOR?
UNC has already made noise that the ACC basically needs to become more economically competitive with the P2, or else. UNC is getting substantial financial support from the state of NC to remain in the ACC due to NC hosting many NCAA and ACC sporting events, but the trajectory of the P2 payouts versus what the state of NC can pay may be a bridge too far to keep UNC in the ACC. SEC and B1G have been trying to add UNC for decades, and UNC is really the #1 school left on the expansion board.
GT is going to the B1G if we get an invite...which I'm almost certain we will. Cabrera wants the prestige and academic partnership of an AAU League, AND he wants GT to compete with "the big boys". Cabrera isn't Peterson...he understands where college sports is going, and the ACC will be a distant 3rd/4th "power" league by 2036. Also, unlike before, there's now healthy support among big donors to leave the ACC if the B1G comes calling again. No one has confidence the ACC can compete with the P2 once the revenue gap becomes chasm. This isn't just a sports thing for Cabrera and GT, it's also viewed as an academic improvement as many expect some of the ACC's most prestigious schools (see: UNC, UVA, GT, new member Stanford) to leave the ACC and dilute the academic banner the league has always prided itself on. The one caveat I'll place here is if Cabrera moves on to somewhere else. Cabrera already has suiters, and will have many more before 2036 rolls around. Can GT hold onto him, and if we can't, will the next President have the same ambitions for GT?
UVA and Miami will also be factors in the B1G expansion. UVA has always been highly coveted by the B1G, but the SEC has also come sniffing around UVA. UVA admins just don't want anything to do with the SEC with their win at all cost philosophy among conference members. Miami has been setting up for the B1G for years. They recently attained AAU, and brought in Radakovich who spearheaded GT's invite to the B1G. Miami is also a market that the B1G covets.
Cal and Stanford reside in a mega media market (top 10 media market) and their academics is top tier among world universities. Given the B1G's expansion model, it's hard not to see them wanting one of the schools to complete their "Pro Sports" market expansion.
You also have to look at the rise of the Big 12. What will the Big 12 be by 2036? Will it have surpassed the ACC? If so, then you look at schools like BC, Pitt, NC State, Duke who are either a major brand in a top 2 sport, or in a major media market. Will the ACC losing members cause our media value to decrease and give the Big 12 a chance to poach members?
That's a LOT of schools and a lot of variables the ACC has to fight to keep the current membership past 2036. IMO, the conference will lose at least 3-6 members once the GOR expires or someone finds an early out.
