Conference Realignment

[Jacket05]

I don't read that much into the statement.

The social media impression of the ACC is that it is lower than a G5 conference. The ACC is a good conference. We need people in the ACC making statements about the strength of the ACC.

It is a sign of character when you are committed to your current situation. An employee who is 100% invested in his company is a great asset. That employee might leave for other career opportunities, but he is a much better asset than an employee who stays for 30 years but only does enough to keep his job and complains the entire time. Brent Key was very motivated to make UCF better when he worked there. He was very motivated to make Alabama better when he worked there. He is currently very motivated to make GT better as a member of the ACC. If GT were to move to the Big10, he would be very motivated to make GT better as a member of the Big10. (Not saying there is any realistic chance of any team leaving the ACC in the near future, just giving a hypothetical.) GT can be a proud member of the ACC and give 100% effort into making the ACC better, yet decide to leave the ACC and give 100% effort in a different conference.

Agreed. It is obvious that people think very little of the strength of the ACC, which was proven by leaving FSU out of the playoffs. And FSU didn't do any favors by not showing up and getting curb stomped by ugag. I think his statement is more to ramp up the external perception of the ACC. If everyone thinks the ACC is a stronger conference this year it will help get more teams in the playoff race.

The biggest issue right now is the GOR makes it difficult to leave the ACC. The only option at this point is to to strengthen the public perception of the ACC, which will bring in more viewership, bigger games, and ultimately more money for the schools. If we find a way to go to the B10 (or SEC) that makes financial sense you better believe Tech will take it and not look back.

 

[billga99]

The new playoff format should guarantee at least one team in the discussion every year. I can almost promise, that by the end of the year, the ACC will have at least three teams plus ND as possible playoff teams.

I don't think a 2 loss ACC team will get in (Unless obviously ACC Champ). I think every SEC and Big Ten 2 loss teams will get preference over an ACC team based on notion that they have a harder SOS. Not fair but I think the bias towards those 2 conferences puts the fix in.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

The new playoff format should guarantee at least one team in the discussion every year. I can almost promise, that by the end of the year, the ACC will have at least three teams plus ND as possible playoff teams.

The ACC will get 1 team in. Don’t let the euphoria from Saturday fog up your mind. Those in power positions didn’t get there by being stupid. I don’t care if we have 3 undefeated ACC teams heading into November, the power system currently in place will not take a spot away from the 2 powerful conferences for a 2nd ACC team to get in. It simply won’t happen.

 

[Vespidae]

I don't think a 2 loss ACC team will get in (Unless obviously ACC Champ).

Using 2023 Week 14 rankings, everyone with 2 losses or better would have gotten in. The only wildcard is the G5 automatic bid could knock someone with 2 losses out.

 

[slugboy]

I don't think a 2 loss ACC team will get in (Unless obviously ACC Champ). I think every SEC and Big Ten 2 loss teams will get preference over an ACC team based on notion that they have a harder SOS. Not fair but I think the bias towards those 2 conferences puts the fix in.

If GT has only two losses, then we either lost two ACC games and beat Notre Dame and UGA, or we swept the ACC and lost to Notre Dame and UGA, or something in between. That’s highly likely to be top 12 ranked (not including the championship game)

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

Agreed. It is obvious that people think very little of the strength of the ACC, which was proven by leaving FSU out of the playoffs. And FSU didn't do any favors by not showing up and getting curb stomped by ugag. I think his statement is more to ramp up the external perception of the ACC. If everyone thinks the ACC is a stronger conference this year it will help get more teams in the playoff race.

The biggest issue right now is the GOR makes it difficult to leave the ACC. The only option at this point is to to strengthen the public perception of the ACC, which will bring in more viewership, bigger games, and ultimately more money for the schools. If we find a way to go to the B10 (or SEC) that makes financial sense you better believe Tech will take it and not look back.

This! We need to have every school with talking points to build up the strength and accomplishments of the ACC. I think that is exactly what Key was trying to do. FSU just needs to STFU and do its part to help make it a conference worth staying in. If we take care of business we can do that. Imagine a 1 loss FSU playing an undefeated GT in the ACC championship game.

Plus the home ACC office could be hard pressed to do a crappier job of marketing and branding. Complete afterthought over there

 

[RonJohn]

Using 2023 Week 14 rankings, everyone with 2 losses or better would have gotten in. The only wildcard is the G5 automatic bid could knock someone with 2 losses out.

The rankings will work differently this year. Last year #10 or #14 didn't make much of a difference. This year, #10 will be in the playoffs and numbers 11 and 12 might be in the playoffs. There will be a lot more lobbying of the committee by teams that are around #10.

The big improvement this year is that if you win your conference you are in. The committee can't decide that an undefeated conference champion doesn't get in. They can still overrepresent the SEC and Big10, but they can't exclude someone who qualifies.

 

[orientalnc]

I don't think a 2 loss ACC team will get in (Unless obviously ACC Champ). I think every SEC and Big Ten 2 loss teams will get preference over an ACC team based on notion that they have a harder SOS. Not fair but I think the bias towards those 2 conferences puts the fix in.

Just based the rankings today, here is where the top SEC, B1G and ACC teams will finish assuming the higher ranked teams win every time. Granted, this is extremely unlikely. If uga beats Texas, tOSU beats Oregon, and FSU beats Clemson for the respective conference championships, here is what the records would be in this scenario:

uga - 13-0
Texas - 11-2
Alabama - 11-1
Mississippi - 11-1
Missouri - 11-1
LSU - 10-2
Tennessee - 10-2

Ohio St - 13-0
Oregon - 11-2
Penn St - 11-1
Michigan 9-3
USC - 8-4
Iowa - 11-1

FSU - 10-2 (7-1)
Clemson - 10-2 (7-1)
Miami - 11-1 (7-1)
NC State - 10-2 (7-1)

Notre Dame - 12-0

I can see where the SEC would say they should have five teams in the CFP (maybe seven, if you want to be really honest). If the B1G has four and the ACC has two and ND gets in and the G5 has one and ... wait, that's too many teams before we look at the B12.

 

[awbuzz]

This^^^
A 10-2 regular season record would mean that we beat some darn good teams. Hard to believe we would not be considered a top 10 team if the two losses were two teams in the top 10.

 

[RonJohn]

Just based the rankings today, here is where the top SEC, B1G and ACC teams will finish assuming the higher ranked teams win every time. Granted, this is extremely unlikely. If uga beats Texas, tOSU beats Oregon, and FSU beats Clemson for the respective conference championships, here is what the records would be in this scenario:

uga - 13-0
Texas - 11-2
Alabama - 11-1
Mississippi - 11-1
Missouri - 11-1
LSU - 10-2
Tennessee - 10-2

Ohio St - 13-0
Oregon - 11-2
Penn St - 11-1
Michigan 9-3
USC - 8-4
Iowa - 11-1

FSU - 10-2 (7-1)
Clemson - 10-2 (7-1)
Miami - 11-1 (7-1)
NC State - 10-2 (7-1)

Notre Dame - 12-0

I can see where the SEC would say they should have five teams in the CFP (maybe seven, if you want to be really honest). If the B1G has four and the ACC has two and ND gets in and the G5 has one and ... wait, that's too many teams before we look at the B12.

Tells me that the SEC schedule is set up so that the top ranked teams don't have to play each other very often. Would the SEC actually work their schedule in such a way that highly ranked teams intentionally end the season with good records? It wouldn't project that way too far into the future. Alabama might fall off with the new coach, or the mutts might fall into problems. Let's see if there they come up with some kind of reason to reshuffle the conference schedule in a a couple of years as strengths of different teams change.

 

[Vespidae]

The SEC has always planned their schedule in such a way as to maximize postseason play and rankings. Not for specific teams, but in general, yes.

 

[dmurdock]

This^^^
A 10-2 regular season record would mean that we beat some darn good teams. Hard to believe we would not be considered a top 10 team if the two losses were two teams in the top 10.

I don't know, if the two losses were to ND and uga, I could see the narrative being that we lost to the only two playoff caliber teams and thus have proven we can't win and thus don't deserve to be in. Further, we would be used as proof that the ACC doesn't deserve to be in the CFP at all.

We'll see how the season plays out. We have a schedule that should allow us to make some noise if we win a bunch of games. But really, the entire ACC needs to step up and win the out of conference games. This weekend the ACC has 3 games against the SEC, 1 against the B1G and 1 against the Big 12. We also can't have any embarrassing FCS losses that seemed to happen with far too much regularity a few years ago.

 

[CEB]

uga - 13-0
Texas - 11-2
Alabama - 11-1
Mississippi - 11-1
Missouri - 11-1
LSU - 10-2
Tennessee - 10-2

Ohio St - 13-0
Oregon - 11-2
Penn St - 11-1
Michigan 9-3
USC - 8-4
Iowa - 11-1

FSU - 10-2 (7-1)
Clemson - 10-2 (7-1)
Miami - 11-1 (7-1)
NC State - 10-2 (7-1)

Notre Dame - 12-0

Yay for 20 team conferences!

 

[roadkill]

Tells me that the SEC schedule is set up so that the top ranked teams don't have to play each other very often. Would the SEC actually work their schedule in such a way that highly ranked teams intentionally end the season with good records? It wouldn't project that way too far into the future. Alabama might fall off with the new coach, or the mutts might fall into problems. Let's see if there they come up with some kind of reason to reshuffle the conference schedule in a a couple of years as strengths of different teams change.

You might conclude that from the Bama/Texas/Ole Miss schedules this year, but not from uga’s. They have a legit tough schedule for a change with all of the above on the road. There’s your counterexample.

If you start with inflated preseason rankings and then apply preseason win probabilities, there will tend to be a bias in the result that favors the top-ranked teams. They can’t all play each other in a 16-team league.

 

[LT 1967]

Looks like the B1G did not quite cover all the details on their new TV contract. Their west coast fans will probably not see Washington and Oregon on the B1G network this weekend. USC and UCLA are not affected this weekend due to their games being national broadcasts.

Dispute going on with Comcast concerning carriage fees apparently. A little late to be working this out! See below.

Comcast-Big Ten Network impasse with West Coast schools part of realignment headaches

Fans of Washington, Oregon, Southern California and UCLA thought their viewing headaches would end with the move from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten. Not so fast.

apnews.com

 

[forensicbuzz]

The rankings will work differently this year. Last year #10 or #14 didn't make much of a difference. This year, #10 will be in the playoffs and numbers 11 and 12 might be in the playoffs. There will be a lot more lobbying of the committee by teams that are around #10.

The big improvement this year is that if you win your conference you are in. The committee can't decide that an undefeated conference champion doesn't get in. They can still overrepresent the SEC and Big10, but they can't exclude someone who qualifies.

This isn't exactly true. If there are two G5 champions ranked higher that some of the P4 champions, then one of the P4 champions will not get an automatic seat at the table. If there is a 10-2 conference champion and two G5 undefeated champions, someone could get left out.

 

[CEB]

This isn't exactly true. If there are two G5 champions ranked higher that some of the P4 champions, then one of the P4 champions will not get an automatic seat at the table. If there is a 10-2 conference champion and two G5 undefeated champions, someone could get left out.

I think you’re confusing the overall bid versus the byes that are given to the top four. The four Conference champions plus the highest G5 are in the 12 team playoff. Of those five guaranteed bids, the four highest rank receive a buy.

 

[forensicbuzz]

I think you’re confusing the overall bid versus the byes that are given to the top four. The four Conference champions plus the highest G5 are in the 12 team playoff. Of those five guaranteed bids, the four highest rank receive a buy.

No. I'm not confusing anything. Most people are overlooking exactly how this is set up.

The automatic bids go to the 5 highest ranked conference champions. Everyone assumes it will be the 4 P4 + 1 G5, but if 2 G5 champions are ranked higher than any of the P4 champions, one of the P4 champions won't get an automatic bid.

 

[CEB]

No. I'm not confusing anything. Most people are overlooking exactly how this is set up.

The automatic bids go to the 5 highest ranked conference champions. Everyone assumes it will be the 4 P4 + 1 G5, but if 2 G5 champions are ranked higher than any of the P4 champions, one of the P4 champions won't get an automatic bid.

You’re correct. Apparently I also read what I wanted to, not what it actually said.

 

[RonJohn]

This isn't exactly true. If there are two G5 champions ranked higher that some of the P4 champions, then one of the P4 champions will not get an automatic seat at the table. If there is a 10-2 conference champion and two G5 undefeated champions, someone could get left out.

I think the chances are much better now that the conference champions will all be 1-2 losses maximum because of the removal of divisions. However, in my comment I specifically said that an undefeated conference champion will not be left out. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't see how an undefeated P4 champion will be ranked lower than two undefeated G5 champions. On top of that, I don't see how an undefeated P4 champion could be ranked lower than #12 even if two G5 teams are higher.

My point is that last year, FSU did everything possible -on the field- to get into the playoffs. The committee just decided to exclude them. This year, if you go undefeated and win your conference, the committee has no say in whether you get in or not. (maybe technically possible, but if GT were to go 13-0 having beaten FSU, ND, NC State, mutts, etc and is ranked #15 behind a lot of 9-3 teams, then they system is 100% broken)