Conference Realignment

[AugustaSwarm]

This squabbling makes ESPN look incompetent at deal making. Fsu and clemson are paid the same as WF and BC till 2036 with no resets? Please!

No, they're paid more than WF and BC. ACC tinkered with the payouts a few years ago.

 

[LT 1967]

Big 12 Commissioner making case for Big 12 as one of the top 3 Conference and the "Deepest" of all Conferences. Conference propaganda wars continue. Does the ACC have an advocate?

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[billga99]

Big 12 Commissioner making case for Big 12 as one of the top 3 Conference and the "Deepest" of all Conferences. Conference propaganda wars continue. Does the ACC have an advocate?

MSN

www.msn.com

Way wishful thinking. Big 12, like the ACC, is way behind in projected TV revenue. However if FSU and Clemson do actually leave, he has a case that the Big 12 would be ahead of the ACC. But I just don't see how he would project the Big 12 ahead of the Big Ten and particularly the SEC. Now this is a football view and not considering as much other sports.

 

[stinger78]

Way wishful thinking. Big 12, like the ACC, is way behind in projected TV revenue. However if FSU and Clemson do actually leave, he has a case that the Big 12 would be ahead of the ACC. But I just don't see how he would project the Big 12 ahead of the Big Ten and particularly the SEC. Now this is a football view and not considering as much other sports.

If F$U and Clemson leave, and leave behind their media rights, the ACC will likely be distributing payouts comparable to the so-called P2.

 

[CEB]

If F$U and Clemson leave, and leave behind their media rights, the ACC will likely be distributing payouts comparable to the so-called P2.

It would be nice for a few years, but that’s a virtual impossibility. Neither team will leave $40m annually and their media rights behind. They have to find a way to buy them back.
My guess is that the “option” we’ve heard so much about is actually a recalculation of the contract payout. Once the payout is established for ‘28-‘36, the parties that want to leave can get to the business of negotiation with actual numbers and dates. If those figures are known the math gets simpler (although it’s still gonna be a big check to stroke).
Also, $80m / 12 original members is $6.7m annually. That bump is temporary and still has us behind the P2 (or at least the projections we’re hearing from them).

 

[stinger78]

It would be nice for a few years, but that’s a virtual impossibility. Neither team will leave $40m annually and their media rights behind. They have to find a way to buy them back.
My guess is that the “option” we’ve heard so much about is actually a recalculation of the contract payout. Once the payout is established for ‘28-‘36, the parties that want to leave can get to the business of negotiation with actual numbers and dates. If those figures are known the math gets simpler (although it’s still gonna be a big check to stroke).
Also, $80m / 12 original members is $6.7m annually. That bump is temporary and still has us behind the P2 (or at least the projections we’re hearing from them).

Or they have to raise the money like SMU did.

As to payouts, if the amount as quoted for 2023 was near to the estimated max of ~$47M per team, then an additional $7M per team would put the ACC at $54M per team - without any increase in media revenue. It should rise for 2024 due to the expanded CFP.

 

[CEB]

Or they have to raise the money like SMU did.

As to payouts, if the amount as quoted for 2023 was near to the estimated max of ~$47M per team, then an additional $7M per team would put the ACC at $54M per team - without any increase in media revenue. It should rise for 2024 due to the expanded CFP.

agree… but if they raise the money, why would they not buy back the rights and pursue a full share of the media deal wherever they go?

This is where their math never worked. They started with the premise that the ACC’s paltry $35m deal was going to be tripled by the BIG $100m deal. This was based on a snapshot of yesterday vs. a 10 year projection.
We don’t know if the projection is true, but we do know the ACC deal is not stagnant. As you corrected, it has grown considerably since they started this narrative.
At any rate, I don’t see them paying a $120-$130m exit fee to leave $47m annually and their media rights behind. Whatever partial share they get in a new conference with their restricted media rights is probably less than the $47m they sacrifice annually… and they would’ve paid $120m to do it.
If they’re serious about going, they have to negotiate a clean break and get their media rights in the process. Otherwise, it just doesn’t make any sense to leave.
At this point I almost feel like their legal shenanigans are just to fire up boosters.

 

[cpf2001]

Even if FSU and Clemson left all their money behind (or bought it out) it would still be hugely bad news for the conference as a whole. Everyone remaining inside would be wise to take that one-time windfall and invest it in anything to make them more attractive to the SEC/Big10.

 

[CEB]

Even if FSU and Clemson left all their money behind (or bought it out) it would still be hugely bad news for the conference as a whole. Everyone remaining inside would be wise to take that one-time windfall and invest it in anything to make them more attractive to the SEC/Big10.

Absolutely.
That day is coming; like it or not. Although I don’t think it will be soon, the longer they wait, the smaller the “windfall.” I’m glad we seem to be taking the steps on a daily basis to improve our attractiveness and give ourselves options.
In 6-7 years when this all actually plays out, I don’t think the windfall at that time will be large enough to make much of a difference.

 

[LT 1967]

Some talk about B1G and SEC not interested in FSU or Clemson. Is Big 12 their next option?

This guy (Greg Swain) may be the one who most on the Swarm believe has little credibility, but I linked to this article to show his latest rumor.

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[RonJohn]

Some talk about B1G and SEC not interested in FSU or Clemson. Is Big 12 their next option?

This guy (Greg Swain) may be the one who most on the Swarm believe has little credibility, but I linked to this article to show his latest rumor.

MSN

www.msn.com

He has a different rumor every week. He is one of the ones who last year said that FSU was announcing their departure from the ACC because they already had an invitation to the Big10. He changed the date of the announcement several times as his proclaimed date changed. It isn't just that I "believe" he has little credibility. He has proven over, and over, and over again that he just says things with no actual information to back it up.

 

[LT 1967]

See Ross Dellenger's comments on FSU and Clemson having possible discussions with the Big 12. Dellenger gives a more detailed analysis of possible discussions with Big 12. He discusses the requirements FSU and Clemson would have in order to make the move (more money). Ross acknowledges the reality of the situation with the outstanding lawsuits. This flurry of articles is apparently the result of rumors coming out of the Big12 meeting.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ot...lignment-in-2024/ar-BB1pOnjQ?ocid=socialshare

 

[roadkill]

I’ll say this about the BIG12 – their Commissioner Brett Yormark is a marketing guy/deal-maker with no shortage of off-the-wall ideas. When he first got the job some of his ideas seemed nuts, now they are reality. I wouldn’t be shocked if he didn’t cut some kind of deal with FSU or Clemson that would make financial sense to them.

 

[Richard7125]

I’ll say this about the BIG12 – their Commissioner Brett Yormark is a marketing guy/deal-maker with no shortage of off-the-wall ideas. When he first got the job some of his ideas seemed nuts, now they are reality. I wouldn’t be shocked if he didn’t cut some kind of deal with FSU or Clemson that would make financial sense to them.

I don't know why anyone would think FSU and/or Clemson would leave the ACC to go to the Big12. Big10 and SEC, sure. Big12, hahahaha

 

[roadkill]

I don't know why anyone would think FSU and/or Clemson would leave the ACC to go to the Big12. Big10 and SEC, sure. Big12, hahahaha

True, if one assumes they are invited to the BIG10 or SEC. We don't know if that's the case.

 

[reckrider]

I don't know why anyone would think FSU and/or Clemson would leave the ACC to go to the Big12. Big10 and SEC, sure. Big12, hahahaha

B12 is perfect for those two. I hope they give us our money and get the heck out. Then we add Wash. St. and Oregon State and have three six team pods. West, North and South.

 

[Techwood Relict]

Then we add Wash. St. and Oregon State and have three six team pods.

I immediately wondered what the trophy would be for our rivalry with Oregon St. Something that pulls together whiskey clear and beaver........

 

[reckrider]

I immediately wondered what the trophy would be for our rivalry with Oregon St. Something that pulls together whiskey clear and beaver........

For the schedule model, play all five teams in your pod annually then a home/away with two from each of the other two pods. Nine total conference games. ND has to agree to playing nine ACC games.

 

[Richard7125]

True, if one assumes they are invited to the BIG10 or SEC. We don't know if that's the case.

Let's assume neither get invited to Big10/SEC, do people think FSU/Clemson will make a downward/lateral move to Big12? I just don't see that happening. The Big12 provides less than what the ACC provides. I could see FSU trying to go independent. I think Clemson would simply apologize and say they were exploring options.

 

[stinger78]

Let's assume neither get invited to Big10/SEC, do people think FSU/Clemson will make a downward/lateral move to Big12? I just don't see that happening. The Big12 provides less than what the ACC provides. I could see FSU trying to go independent. I think Clemson would simply apologize and say they were exploring options.

How do you make it in CFB without a conference payout. Even ND, with the big TV contract, gets a half share with their ACC affiliation.