That's a good point. Perhaps one of the At Large spots. I don't know. My thoughts were more around neither FSU or Clemson landing in the Big12. I don't think their beef is the ACC. Their beef is not having SEC/Big10 money or having the respect of SEC/Big10 teams. The Big12 doesn't solve any of that. You can make a pretty strong argument they will get less money and respect in the Big12 than they currently get in the ACC.
Although you responded to my post below, I'm not sure you understood its point.
As for respect, that's a subjective component that hasn't been stated in the lawsuits as far as I know. It appears to be all about the money.
Yeah, I saw the comment ”that would makes sense to them.” That lets you say anything without considering the Big12’s financial parameters.
Your analysis assumes that the BIG12's income is constrained by its current ESPN contract. There are other possibilities.
The only way I see Clemson and FSU leaving for the BIG12 is if they are embarrassed by the outcome of their lawsuit and try to save face and just leave. I can't foresee a situation where the money will be enough to warrant them leaving their current situations.
That, and there's no way schools like Arizona, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Colorado, Utah are going to take smaller distributions so Clemson and FSU can get richer.
Can you imagine leaving your regional network of rivals so you can play away games in Texas, Oklahoma and Arizona, all because of embarrassment? I would die laughing. They would be better off going independent than joining the Big 12.
It makes no sense for FSU or Clemson to join the Big 12. In 2023, FSU has 4.16M viewers, mostly because virtually all but one of its games were shown on Nielsen-rated networks. In the Big 12 of today, no team currently has more than 2.0M viewers, so it be largely dilutionary to FSU to move. And that's assuming they remain Nielsen rated. I would suspect that some games would go regional, further diluting the FSU "brand".
There is another alternative: for the ACC to up its play. I believe that GT, Louisville, VPI, Miami, and Syracuse, and maybe BC and Pitt, are all on the upswing. Clemson and F$u are already at or near the top, and NCSU and UNCheat are getting there. If it happens that those latter four can stay there and if 4 of the 7 named at the top can make that step up, that the ACC could have 8 teams consistently pressing for the top 25. It has happened before, but we always let it slip away.
no. The viewership isn’t there. The problem with CFB is that it’s no longer about football, it’s about views.
Atlanta, Miami, Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, Pittsburgh, Boston, DC, Louisville, upstate NY, all of Florida and SC. Now add in Dallas and SF…. You’re kidding, right? The potential viewership the ACC is enormous - far larger than the SECheat. We’re talking about cable and streaming subscriptions. If the ACC ever gets its football in order it will dwarf most of the rest.
No, it isn’t. You are thinking geographically. Does Boston want to see Holy Cross vs Maine, or Penn State vs Notre Dame. It’s matchups. Thats what is driving realignment.
It’s about the fee that sEcSPN charges Comcast to carry their product. sEcSPN gets paid these fees regardless of how many people actually watch. Now how much they can charge depends on how popular that program is which is tied to many things: brand, quality, location, opponent, narrative, etc. But that is secondary to the basic fee that every single subscriber pays.
Not exactly. What you say is 100% true for the SEC Network (same for ACC Network and others), but …. those networks are not Nielsen-rated. It is the Nielsen viewers that drive the media rights values. Teams that play on non-Nielsen media are not even counted in the viewership numbers. It is simply content provided to distribution. [That is significant because it allows ESPN to report higher numbers without dilution.]
Which is why I preceded this entire discussion with: …if the ACC can raise their game a certain amount….” If GT, VPI, Louisville, Pitt, BC, Miami - and now SMU and Stanford - really needing only about 4-5 of those 8 programs per year to go with Clemson, FSU, NCSU, and UNC (along with ND), then the inventory is there… if the next lookin allows renegotiation and if The Narrative doesn’t squeeze them out, we’re not that far away.
For ESPN in particular, advertisement revenue is still much much smaller than subscriber revenue. Subscriber revenue is decreasing, so ESPN is certainly looking for other avenues of revenue. However, eyes on games is not THE ONLY thing that matters as you seem to be saying. The ACC Network getting in the Dallas could mean as much as $3 million per month to the ACC Network, which is divided between ESPN and the ACC. That is only Dallas is added as a home market. If the entire state of Texas is added, that could be another $8-10 million on top of the 3.
I had Comcast until recently. With the de-subscription of the Bally franchise (due to their unresolved dispute) they were refunding me about $8/month.
My analysis is constrained by Big12 revenue realities. You suggest there will be some mysterious/new source of money (that has nothing to do with TV revenue) that will only be available to the Big12. I’m not saying there can’t be new sources of revenue, but if it’s the kind of windfall that would elevate the Big12 to SEC/Big10 levels, you can be sure the other conferences will follow suit.