They can take the estimated distributions from either the B1G or SEC. Neither conference would offer membership at a financial loss, so that’s a floor for the FSU value.
Worst case, the ACC is the exclusive broadcaster for FSU home games. The ACC gets money no matter what. FSU is contractually required to support this. From a negotiating point of view, FSU needs to offer the ACC a better deal than what they already have—or, at least, the ACC has little incentive to accept less value than they get from FSU now.
FSU’s best card is “we are an unwilling partner”. It’s not a winning hand. Every other card is something that the conference can turn to their advantage
FSU will position their case as favorably as possible. So will the ACC. The ACC filings look more realistic so far.
The conference isn’t going to settle for a substantial financial loss.** They don’t have any reason to. FSU’s lawyers are going to cite only values that support their case; I would not accept any of those numbers at face value. I wouldn’t accept the ACC numbers either—I would use values paid to comparable schools
**The ACC could accept less. That would be stupid, and they’ve done stupid things.