Conference Realignment

[CEB]

Currently yes. By about 9 million per team. The Big 12 gets to renegotiate this 5 years before the ACC gets to renegotiate their contract which would most likely bring it closer if not above. Is that amount of money worth the current instability of going to the ACC and leaving your current rivals? We don't even have assurance yet that ESPN will keep paying us post 2027. What does ESPN do with that option if FSU, Clemson, and others decide to leave?

You’re also assuming the option is flat… probably not a reasonable or realistic assumption.
FSU and Clem and ?? can’t just “decide to leave” unless they leave their rights or pay huge sums for them. The GOR is in effect until 2036 or (presumably) the end of the ESPN deal.
ESPN has the right to exercise the option before FSU / Clem have the opportunity to walk away. In other words, ESPN exercising the option holds FSU… or maybe holds them to a massive settlement payment for their media rights.

 

[stinger 1957]

The real question I have and may end up being the answer to all of this is whether ESPN makes it or goes belly up. The Big 10 made a strategic move in going with the major networks it appears. I'm sensing that TV is headed for really big change when all the other forces ( which I'm not allowed to mention on here) play out. I'm guessing we will see that in the next five years or less.

 

[stinger78]

I too am skeptical of the viability of the current business model more than about 3-5 years out.

 

[WreckinGT]

Considering the PAC-12 when it still included USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon Couldn't get a deal as good as the ACC it's highly doubtful a Big-12 sans Texas and Oklahoma approach what we have.

As far as the option with ESPN, unless we lose this lawsuit with FSU and a bunch of teams depart which is highly unlikely, then ESPN would be foolish not to exercise the option.

The Big 12 already has a 32 million dollar a year deal compared to the ACC's 40 million dollar deal. You don't think in 5 years they will be able to negotiate that higher? The ACC is stuck until 2036 if ESPN even decides to keep it. You can say they would be foolish not to but they were supposed to renew it in 2021 and for some reason asked for an extension instead of jumping on it. Frankly, we shouldn't have granted that extension. Now its being used in a lawsuit against us.

There is no incentive for a Big 12 team to go anywhere except to the P2 conferences. Leaving a stable conference, with teams you have some history against for an obviously unstable conference for a few million more per year seems like pretty bad plan.

 

[WreckinGT]

Same reason teams in the ACC are looking to move to the SEC/B1G?

So you think ACC -> Big 10/SEC right now is roughly the same as Big 12 -> ACC? You are comparing an 8-9 million dollar increase to a 30-40 million dollar increase. You are also comparing an unstable conference to one of the two mega conferences going forward. Those aren't really comparable. Not to mention you are leaving out the key part that the ACC is stuck until 2036 with its media rights deal if it lasts that long. Every other conference will renegotiate their deals well before that and unless the trends change, they will make even more money. The ACC simply isn't a desirable destination right now, unless you are G5 or are a P5 desperate for a place to go after your conference fell apart.

 

[RonJohn]

The Big 12 already has a 32 million dollar a year deal compared to the ACC's 40 million dollar deal. You don't think in 5 years they will be able to negotiate that higher? The ACC is stuck until 2036 if ESPN even decides to keep it. You can say they would be foolish not to but they were supposed to renew it in 2021 and for some reason asked for an extension instead of jumping on it. Frankly, we shouldn't have granted that extension. Now its being used in a lawsuit against us.

The only thing we know about the ESPN option is what FSU filed in the lawsuit. That is probably a version of the option that is spun in a way to make FSU's pleading appear most favorably. Do you know what the option actually is? Do you know that ESPN actually has an option to completely walk away from the contract? Do you know that it isn't actually an option to increase the payouts, but ESPN has to unilaterally decide that? Does anyone who is publicly speaking about it know any of that?

Lawyers don't typically include things in pleadings that they know to be false. However, sometimes lawyers get information from their client and don't push for exact details so that they can make the pleading as convincing as possible. We do not know what the ESPN contract actually says. We do not know that ESPN can just walk away. Too many people are putting too much faith in what FSU is spinning. It might be true. However, I have very little trust in FSU's lawyers, and will need some level of confirmation before I just accept what they say.

There is no incentive for a Big 12 team to go anywhere except to the P2 conferences. Leaving a stable conference, with teams you have some history against for an obviously unstable conference for a few million more per year seems like pretty bad plan.

Who is stable and who isn't? A few years ago, people were predicting the end of the ACC because it was the worst P5 conference and the most unstable. The Pac12 was looked at as a very stable conference. The Pac12 went under. The ACC makes more money per school from media than the Big12, but people still look at the Big12 as the more stable conference. The powerhouse teams from the Big12 have all left, but people still look at it as the more stable conference. I don't think there is any measure, except internet opinion, that the Big12 is the better conference.

 

[stinger78]

So you think ACC -> Big 10/SEC right now is roughly the same as Big 12 -> ACC? You are comparing an 8-9 million dollar increase to a 30-40 million dollar increase. You are also comparing an unstable conference to one of the two mega conferences going forward. Those aren't really comparable. Not to mention you are leaving out the key part that the ACC is stuck until 2036 with its media rights deal if it lasts that long. Every other conference will renegotiate their deals well before that and unless the trends change, they will make even more money. The ACC simply isn't a desirable destination right now, unless you are G5 or are a P5 desperate for a place to go after your conference fell apart.

This is a false comparison. No other B12 team will be invited to the SEC/B1G. It’s not $8-9M compared to $30-40M. Unless you believe the ACC is worse off than the B12, it is an improvement straight up.

 

[RonJohn]

Every other conference will renegotiate their deals well before that and unless the trends change, they will make even more money.

That is what the Pac12 thought a few years ago. That is what the Pac12 thought when they turned down a TV contract in 2022 that would have kept the conference together. There are a lot of things happening that are putting downward pressure on licensing rights for sports. The sports TV market isn't stable in the change from cable to streaming cable to streaming. That might be settled in five years, but it might not. The market might be up, but it could be down. The most recent information we have is that the Pac12 couldn't even get a TV contract for the same money as their previous contract. The hockey stick trajectory of college football media payouts appears to be at least at a plateau.

 

[WreckinGT]

This is a false comparison. No other B12 team will be invited to the SEC/B1G. It’s not $8-9M compared to $30-40M. Unless you believe the ACC is worse off than the B12, it is an improvement straight up.

You claimed that teams from the Big 12 would want to go to the ACC for the same reasons that ACC teams would want to go to the SEC/Big 10. I don't think those two scenarios are remotely comparable and I doubt you think so either.

 

[billga99]

I

Currently yes. By about 9 million per team. The Big 12 gets to renegotiate this 5 years before the ACC gets to renegotiate their contract which would most likely bring it closer if not above. Is that amount of money worth the current instability of going to the ACC and leaving your current rivals? We don't even have assurance yet that ESPN will keep paying us post 2027. What does ESPN do with that option if FSU, Clemson, and others decide to leave?

I think a big part of ESPN decision on t j e extension is where is FSU trying to land, Big Ten or SEC. If Big Ten ESPN has a big reason for that not to happen .

 

[stinger78]

You claimed that teams from the Big 12 would want to go to the ACC for the same reasons that ACC teams would want to go to the SEC/Big 10. I don't think those two scenarios are remotely comparable and I doubt you think so either.

I meant more money, not comparable money.

 

[WreckinGT]

Who is stable and who isn't? A few years ago, people were predicting the end of the ACC because it was the worst P5 conference and the most unstable. The Pac12 was looked at as a very stable conference. The Pac12 went under. The ACC makes more money per school from media than the Big12, but people still look at the Big12 as the more stable conference. The powerhouse teams from the Big12 have all left, but people still look at it as the more stable conference. I don't think there is any measure, except internet opinion, that the Big12 is the better conference.

I wouldnt say the Big 12 is necessarily a better conference. It is certainly more stable. Their best program isn't currently suing the conference. They don't have a group of 7 teams that were reportedly trying to get out of the GOR so they can leave the conference. The ACC has good programs that don't really want to be here anymore. It is obviously the most unstable conference. The Big 12 has some pretty good programs that the P2 has no interest in. That by itself makes them stable. Their programs have no better options.

 

[WreckinGT]

I meant more money, not comparable money.

It's probably worth mentioning also that ESPN is only obligated to pay an extra 24 million if a new team is added to the ACC. Roughly 7-8 million less than they make in the Big 12 unless they can convince ESPN to raise the payout for particular teams.

 

[RonJohn]

I wouldnt say the Big 12 is necessarily a better conference. It is certainly more stable. Their best program isn't currently suing the conference. They don't have a group of 7 teams that were reportedly trying to get out of the GOR so they can leave the conference. The ACC has good programs that don't really want to be here anymore. It is obviously the most unstable conference. The Big 12 has some pretty good programs that the P2 has no interest in. That by itself makes them stable. Their programs have no better options.

So you are saying that the Big12 is more stable because they don't have any good teams? What about the American or MAC? Are they more stable than the ACC?

If the Big12 doesn't have any desirable teams, then are they actually a P5(4) team? If you are correct, then maybe it should only be the P3. ACC, Big10, SEC.

It is hard to keep track of the logic in this thread.

 

[stinger78]

I think the “instability” of the ACC is overstated. Yes, F$U wants out. TBH, I’d preferred them out right now. Maybe Clemson wants out. Not so sure about that. Beyond those two, I don’t know who else truly wants out vs. who is just in exploratory mode. There are 17+1 in the ACC today. Lose 1-2 teams and there is still a lot of inventory. Pick up 1-2 more decent to good teams and it’s back at it.

 

[cpf2001]

The Big 12 is only more “stable” than the ACC in a very dubious way. Eg it’s a strength now that a hypothetical Big 10 expansion would prefer UNC to Texas Tech or whoever?

The ACC starts looking really attractive to the top programs in the Big 12 if they can’t negotiate a higher TV deal - and we already saw the PAC fail to do that and the ACC deal is renewed. Two “ifs” certainly, but it’s foolish to assume the ACC is worthless (even without FSU) AND that Big 12 programs are on the whole worth more still.

It would be better to be in a somewhat-turmoil-y conference than a completely broke one.

 

[RamblinRed]

I would say the B12 is more stable right now, partially because their new Commissioner has done a great job of getting all their members to understand what they are and getting them all on the same page.
The B12 is sort of the leftovers conference in many ways - they don't really have any programs left that are going to be of any interest to the P2, but they have come to see that and embrace that. They understand they are never going to get P2 money but are happy just to be able to still be in the 'P' game.

Their Commissioner also believes football and basketball rights could eventually be separated and is preparing in case that happens.

The ACC is more valuable because it has more schools that have a interest outside a small area. The issue for the ACC is that some of those programs wants to grab for the brass ring of the P2 money. Can't fault them for that, though you could make an argument that it would actually be better to try to make the ACC better as a group. ACC as a conference could never get P2 money - it simply lacks the large schools and alumni bases for that.

FSU has decided it doesn't want to be in the ACC long term and is making a hail mary legal play to get out. Maybe they hit on it, but the odds don't appear high. If they don't then they really put themselves in a bad spot. They have a bunch of conference mates that have no respect or belief that they will work with them and to get out would require a huge sum of money at that point. In addition, the P2 have to sort of look at them and be thinking - how good of conference member will they be if we bring them in.

The number of football programs that have done better after 'moving up' in conference is very small. Most have done worse.

 

[stinger78]

What is:
11-1
8-4
7-6
6-6
1-10
2-9
5-7
4-9
0-12
5-7
7-6
7-6
7-6
9-4
8-6
7-6
12-2
10-3
10-4
8-5
3-1
4-8
11-2
14-1

Answer Washington’s W/L since 2000.

 

[WreckinGT]

I think the “instability” of the ACC is overstated. Yes, F$U wants out. TBH, I’d preferred them out right now. Maybe Clemson wants out. Not so sure about that. Beyond those two, I don’t know who else truly wants out vs. who is just in exploratory mode. There are 17+1 in the ACC today. Lose 1-2 teams and there is still a lot of inventory. Pick up 1-2 more decent to good teams and it’s back at it.

This was less than a year ago. You are fooling yourself if you think FSU is the only team that wants out.

 

[awbuzz]

Im honestly not sure what is making you guys think that teams in the Big 12 will want to move to the ACC.

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