Conference Realignment

[orientalnc]

I just can’t see the BIG or SEC getting bigger. Especially if TV deals get smaller. The only enticement left, as I see it, would the mega conferences have pods and each winner goes to the playoffs. OU, BAMA, A&M, LSU, UGA, Texas, Auburn, UF, and Tennessee all going to the playoffs? Same with the BIG.

The current CFP selection criteria for the expanded 12-team playoff will be made up of the six conference champions ranked highest by the committee (no minimum ranking requirement), and the six highest-ranked teams not among the conference champions. The four highest-ranked conference champions would be seeded Nos. 1 through 4 and receive first-round byes. The other eight seeds — Nos. 5 through 12 — would play in the first round.

Assume for a moment that the ACC is 17 teams, the Big 12 and SEC are each 16 teams, and Big Ten is 18 teams. I believe each of those four huge conferences are thinking they will have at least two teams in the playoffs, especially if they are playing nine conference games. If the G5 gets two conference champions in, that means there will only be two spots for conference 3rd place teams AND Notre Dame. This is where it starts getting tingly for ND and its independence. Watch for ND lobbying to reduce the six conference champions to five.

Let's assume for a moment that uga, tOSU, Clemson, and TCU are the highest ranking conference champions, plus two G5 champs. Still hanging around are Bama, LSU, FSU, USC, Michigan, Washington, Tennessee, and Texas. All of those schools are ranked ahead of ND in the 2023 pre-season polls.

It gets even weirder if the pods @Oldgoldandwhite mentioned come to pass. Three pods each in the P4 conferences? Oops, suddenly there's no room for G5 teams or ND.

 

[LT 1967]

What specifically about UVA makes them so desirable and would rate a full share in the BIG?

One thing we can be sure of, it is not their football. I saw an article from 247 sports showing the Conference only records for the previous decade 2010 through 2019. This a longer period
and perhaps reveals a little more in terms of consistency.

I Summarized the won-loss numbers from their article.

Clemson-----68-12------- 85.0%
FSU----------55-25--------68.6
VT----------- 51-29--------63.8
Miami -------46-34 -------57.5
Pitt ----------31.25--------55.3
Louisville----26-22--------54.1
GT-----------41-39--------51.3
UNC---------39-41------- 48.8
NCS---------34-46--------42.5
BC-----------30-50--------37.5
Duke--------30-50--------37.5
UVA --------28-52--------35.0
Syracuse----19-37--------33.9
WF----------27-53--------33.8

All this proves is that we have several conference members that do not need to be holding themselves in such high regard, at least in terms of Football.

Also, 6 of these teams in the Coastal did not play Clemson every year! I am sure Tech's numbers would look better if Clemson had not been our crossover. Also, the 2019 year is included,
which we would rather forget.

 

[1979jacket]

The current CFP selection criteria for the expanded 12-team playoff will be made up of the six conference champions ranked highest by the committee (no minimum ranking requirement), and the six highest-ranked teams not among the conference champions. The four highest-ranked conference champions would be seeded Nos. 1 through 4 and receive first-round byes. The other eight seeds — Nos. 5 through 12 — would play in the first round.

Assume for a moment that the ACC is 17 teams, the Big 12 and SEC are each 16 teams, and Big Ten is 18 teams. I believe each of those four huge conferences are thinking they will have at least two teams in the playoffs, especially if they are playing nine conference games. If the G5 gets two conference champions in, that means there will only be two spots for conference 3rd place teams AND Notre Dame. This is where it starts getting tingly for ND and its independence. Watch for ND lobbying to reduce the six conference champions to five.

Let's assume for a moment that uga, tOSU, Clemson, and TCU are the highest ranking conference champions, plus two G5 champs. Still hanging around are Bama, LSU, FSU, USC, Michigan, Washington, Tennessee, and Texas. All of those schools are ranked ahead of ND in the 2023 pre-season polls.

It gets even weirder if the pods @Oldgoldandwhite mentioned come to pass. Three pods each in the P4 conferences? Oops, suddenly there's no room for G5 teams or ND.

it will be changed

 

[orientalnc]

it will be changed

No doubt. But the SEC and Big Ten already consider themselves the elite conferences. Do you think they are going to "settle" for two teams when there is a G5 team in the mix?

Let's assume we're at the end of the 2024 season and using the 2023 preseason rankings. Who are the 12 teams? uga, Michigan, FSU, Tulane and Kansas State are your automatic bids. Alabama, and LSU are in. tOSU, USC, Penn State, Washington, and Clemson are in. Even if you left out the G5 champ there's still Texas and Tennessee standing in ND's way.

The thing that hurts ND is that two conference champs in that scenario are not highly ranked. When you look at ND's otherwise weak 2023 schedule, they will have to beat two of Ohio State, Clemson, and USC to be ranked in the top 10. That's assuming they don't slip up anywhere else.

 

[Techwood Relict]

Why does anyone think adding west coast teams is a good idea? Seems like a drag for the students to have to go out there. SMU is not as bad a ride, but NoCal is a completely different matter.

I think it's a hedge play against the eventual buyout of a few teams to give the conference a shot at stability. It definitely is not friendly to the athletes, but that variable appears not to be weighed heavily in the current environment. We (the ACC) are not going to take from the two big players, but as has been well discussed, a comfortable third is in the money. If the conference setup holds, I could see us taking better B12 teams to balance the All Coastal at a later date.

 

[Root4GT]

The current CFP selection criteria for the expanded 12-team playoff will be made up of the six conference champions ranked highest by the committee (no minimum ranking requirement), and the six highest-ranked teams not among the conference champions. The four highest-ranked conference champions would be seeded Nos. 1 through 4 and receive first-round byes. The other eight seeds — Nos. 5 through 12 — would play in the first round.

Assume for a moment that the ACC is 17 teams, the Big 12 and SEC are each 16 teams, and Big Ten is 18 teams. I believe each of those four huge conferences are thinking they will have at least two teams in the playoffs, especially if they are playing nine conference games. If the G5 gets two conference champions in, that means there will only be two spots for conference 3rd place teams AND Notre Dame. This is where it starts getting tingly for ND and its independence. Watch for ND lobbying to reduce the six conference champions to five.

Let's assume for a moment that uga, tOSU, Clemson, and TCU are the highest ranking conference champions, plus two G5 champs. Still hanging around are Bama, LSU, FSU, USC, Michigan, Washington, Tennessee, and Texas. All of those schools are ranked ahead of ND in the 2023 pre-season polls.

It gets even weirder if the pods @Oldgoldandwhite mentioned come to pass. Three pods each in the P4 conferences? Oops, suddenly there's no room for G5 teams or ND.

The system you describe was based on 5 power conferences and 1 Group of Five. I suspect that will change from 6 conference champs to 5 before the first iteration. I agree the P4/5 will not want a second G5 auto invite.

 

[yeti92]

What specifically about UVA makes them so desirable and would rate a full share in the BIG?

Yea, I don't see the SEC wanting UVA. The SEC claims they want compelling matchups that draw a lot of viewers, and they are clearly only focusing on football with that, but UVA football is historically horrible - they haven't had a double-digit win season since 1989, and that's their only one ever. Never won a natty. Throwing about the same amount of money at football as Tech, maybe less. Undergrad student body same size as Tech's. Not a super talent rich state, and would be the furthest/most isolated team from the rest of the league. May also have to take VT with them, although honestly I think that, of the 2 VT, is a better fit for the SEC, so that may be a plus.

 

[iceeater1969]

I think it's a hedge play against the eventual buyout of a few teams to give the conference a shot at stability. It definitely is not friendly to the athletes, but that variable appears not to be weighed heavily in the current environment. We (the ACC) are not going to take from the two big players, but as has been well discussed, a comfortable third is in the money. If the conference setup holds, I could see us taking better B12 teams to balance the All Coastal at a later date.

I like to think its about TV markets and not elite university prezs being collegial?

40 years of being an engineering management company for energy companies has taught me a lot about contract law in severe economic times.
When oiull price collaped, they sell reserves to get cash for i.portsnt operations. They THEN NEGOIATE REVISED CONTRACTS ON LONG TERM ENGINEERING CONTRACTS. We always cut deaks for CHEAPER SHORT TERM RATES BUT HIGHER VOLUME OVER LONG TERM. Over 40 years went from texas pipeline survey to total service international epcm company.

When Disney is selling ownership to get $$ due to slumping revenue due to dropping viewership and $ competition from new technology, we can't expect them to just be nice guys.

We will never win in court as they will throw all kinds of blame on the 6 acc midgets that failed to find to adequate alternate streams of revenuse to produce a tv worthy product. ITS NEVER THIER FAULT.
Suing the people we get money from is not a plan.

So getting Stan and Cal , maybe SMU and maybe Navy and ND is a great way to get an enlarged tv coversge. Lets try to make it thru our clients tough time and negotiate a future larger presence.
The enlarged ACC could merge w B12 and have great tv viewership.

 

[UgaBlows]

To start I would say recent national championships in both basketball and baseball. I also think they are pretty strong in several of the olympic sports. Plus I think they have a broader base of sports they participate in that Tech.

Football is the sport that these massive contracts are mostly driven by though right? I don’t think FOX is too interested in women’s vollyball etc

 

[UgaBlows]

Elite athletics and academics across a broad spectrum. But I don't think they have much following outside of Virginia and aren't a major market center so not as much market value.

Hell I don’t think they have much of a following IN Virginia, their ratings are at the bottom of the ACC

 

[UgaBlows]

Yea, I don't see the SEC wanting UVA. The SEC claims they want compelling matchups that draw a lot of viewers, and they are clearly only focusing on football with that, but UVA football is historically horrible - they haven't had a double-digit win season since 1989, and that's their only one ever. Never won a natty. Throwing about the same amount of money at football as Tech, maybe less. Undergrad student body same size as Tech's. Not a super talent rich state, and would be the furthest/most isolated team from the rest of the league. May also have to take VT with them, although honestly I think that, of the 2 VT, is a better fit for the SEC, so that may be a plus.

UVA would make Vandy look good if they joined the SEC, plus can you imagine LSU, Bammer, uga necks taking over Charlottsville?

 

[g0lftime]

UVA would make Vandy look good if they joined the SEC, plus can you imagine LSU, Bammer, uga necks taking over Charlottsville?

Do they allow RV's in Charlottesville?

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

No doubt. But the SEC and Big Ten already consider themselves the elite conferences. Do you think they are going to "settle" for two teams when there is a G5 team in the mix?

Let's assume we're at the end of the 2024 season and using the 2023 preseason rankings. Who are the 12 teams? uga, Michigan, FSU, Tulane and Kansas State are your automatic bids. Alabama, and LSU are in. tOSU, USC, Penn State, Washington, and Clemson are in. Even if you left out the G5 champ there's still Texas and Tennessee standing in ND's way.

The thing that hurts ND is that two conference champs in that scenario are not highly ranked. When you look at ND's otherwise weak 2023 schedule, they will have to beat two of Ohio State, Clemson, and USC to be ranked in the top 10. That's assuming they don't slip up anywhere else.

ND being in a Conference would always have at least two paths to the playoffs. Conference champs or as an at large. Now it’s at large or not at all.

 

[iceeater1969]

Hell I don’t think they have much of a following IN Virginia, their ratings are at the bottom of the ACC

On hudl , I sit in fla watch my texas hs volleyball playing grand daughter. .

Cameras and elecronics are getting cheaper.

Small school HS coaches get films w play breakdowns the next morning. No more all night friday film break down

AI and some good cameras could open up the smaller sports.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

On hudl , I sit in fla watch my texas hs volleyball playing grand daughter. .

I can remember when you could not get film until early the next week on the old time projectors.
I hope you have an eye on the weather. Be safe.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

The current CFP selection criteria for the expanded 12-team playoff will be made up of the six conference champions ranked highest by the committee (no minimum ranking requirement), and the six highest-ranked teams not among the conference champions. The four highest-ranked conference champions would be seeded Nos. 1 through 4 and receive first-round byes. The other eight seeds — Nos. 5 through 12 — would play in the first round.

Assume for a moment that the ACC is 17 teams, the Big 12 and SEC are each 16 teams, and Big Ten is 18 teams. I believe each of those four huge conferences are thinking they will have at least two teams in the playoffs, especially if they are playing nine conference games. If the G5 gets two conference champions in, that means there will only be two spots for conference 3rd place teams AND Notre Dame. This is where it starts getting tingly for ND and its independence. Watch for ND lobbying to reduce the six conference champions to five.

Let's assume for a moment that uga, tOSU, Clemson, and TCU are the highest ranking conference champions, plus two G5 champs. Still hanging around are Bama, LSU, FSU, USC, Michigan, Washington, Tennessee, and Texas. All of those schools are ranked ahead of ND in the 2023 pre-season polls.

It gets even weirder if the pods @Oldgoldandwhite mentioned come to pass. Three pods each in the P4 conferences? Oops, suddenly there's no room for G5 teams or ND.

Good analysis.

The human factor is the wild card in this for me. The SEC always gets a boost due to the “human factor” which says, in so many words, let’s give them high preseason ratings until they prove us wrong. It usually takes at least 3 losses (unless there is a blowout by a non-conference opponent, to “prove us wrong.”

My point is, Notre Dame also gets a little bit of that “human factor” boost. Once pollsters and pundits have locked in the obvious top slots they start to look around for who to fill in the last spots with. And there is Notre Dame with their pageantry, tradition, winning history and a huge national fan base. “Surely we can’t leave THEM out!”

But, yeah, I think you have pinpointed that, at the very least, Notre Dame will be sweating it out much more than they would find acceptable.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

One thing we can be sure of, it is not their football. I saw an article from 247 sports showing the Conference only records for the previous decade 2010 through 2019. This a longer period
and perhaps reveals a little more in terms of consistency.

I Summarized the won-loss numbers from their article.

Clemson-----68-12------- 85.0%
FSU----------55-25--------68.6
VT----------- 51-29--------63.8
Miami -------46-34 -------57.5
Pitt ----------31.25--------55.3
Louisville----26-22--------54.1
GT-----------41-39--------51.3
UNC---------39-41------- 48.8
NCS---------34-46--------42.5
BC-----------30-50--------37.5
Duke--------30-50--------37.5
UVA --------28-52--------35.0
Syracuse----19-37--------33.9
WF----------27-53--------33.8

All this proves is that we have several conference members that do not need to be holding themselves in such high regard, at least in terms of Football.

Also, 6 of these teams in the Coastal did not play Clemson every year! I am sure Tech's numbers would look better if Clemson had not been our crossover. Also, the 2019 year is included,
which we would rather forget.

These numbers kind of make you wonder why UNC is perennially the “next ACC champ,” or at least mentioned almost every year as a “dark horse” or “team to watch out for.”

Tech never seems to get that level of unconditional love.

 

[AugustaSwarm]

Earlier this week, Notre Dame Athletic Director Jack Swarbrick called the conference shifting a “complete disaster."
“I think the decision-making has lost its way in terms of the focus on the student-athlete and what’s primarily best for them,” he told “The Dan Patrick Show” on Wednesday. “I’m all for more regional scheduling. I think it makes a load of sense.”

Says the athletic director from the one school that fancies themselves a “national” university and has completely refused to join a conference or play a regional schedule.....
I really don’t know the man, but this quote from his position is entirely laughable and insulting....
UNLESS he has plans to change their course.

I despise Notre Dame. Rudy was offsides. They need to join a conference already. If he's so in favor of regional scheduling, BF should drop USC, Stanford, and all other "non regional" games...I can't stand Notre Dame.

 

[iceeater1969]

One thing we can be sure of, it is not their football. I saw an article from 247 sports showing the Conference only records for the previous decade 2010 through 2019. This a longer period
and perhaps reveals a little more in terms of consistency.

I Summarized the won-loss numbers from their article.

Clemson-----68-12------- 85.0%
FSU----------55-25--------68.6
VT----------- 51-29--------63.8
Miami -------46-34 -------57.5
Pitt ----------31.25--------55.3
Louisville----26-22--------54.1
GT-----------41-39--------51.3
UNC---------39-41------- 48.8
NCS---------34-46--------42.5
BC-----------30-50--------37.5
Duke--------30-50--------37.5
UVA --------28-52--------35.0
Syracuse----19-37--------33.9
WF----------27-53--------33.8

All this proves is that we have several conference members that do not need to be holding themselves in such high regard, at least in terms of Football.

Also, 6 of these teams in the Coastal did not play Clemson every year! I am sure Tech's numbers would look better if Clemson had not been our crossover. Also, the 2019 year is included,
which we would rather forget.

Thanks for the content
FOOTBALL
Imho, tv guys will use your list of past performance and add what are u doing lately to the overall viewer potrntial. In the next adjustment they will decide who gets sent down to G5 or lower. Take it or leave it Walk Away Money will be given to those being sent to G5. The middle ( gt) rest will pledge to maintain other sources revenue to sustain a quality product.

Looking at the bottom half of your long term list: i see 3 teams duke, wake, ncst) who are located within 30 miles and have limited population. 2 need to go to G5.

 

[orientalnc]

Thanks for the content
FOOTBALL
Imho, tv guys will use your list of past performance and add what are u doing lately to the overall viewer potrntial. In the next adjustment they will decide who gets sent down to G5 or lower. Take it or leave it Walk Away Money will be given to those being sent to G5. The middle ( gt) rest will pledge to maintain other sources revenue to sustain a quality product.

Looking at the bottom half of your long term list: i see 3 teams duke, wake, ncst) who are located within 30 miles and have limited population. 2 need to go to G5.

Wake is located in Winston-Salem now. I not sure when they moved the campus out of Wake Forest, but it's been a while. W-S is a lot more than 30 miles from Duke or NC State. The Raleigh/Durham area has a population of just under 2 million. I am not sure that changes your point, but the data ought to be as accurate as possible.