Collins report card after 2 seasons

[Tadams6599]

How can anyone familiar with the roster Collins inherited make such a statement? In terms of Johnson recruits, Collins inherited 1 OL (Quinney) with another P5 offer. One! Then there is Defoor who transferred from Ole Miss. So that's two. And no TE. Last time I checked, it takes 5 players on the OL, and the TE is an important blocker. And some depth is helpful. Now some folks on here believe that you can be good on offense without a good OL, but those people show what they (don't) know. We had athletes, not QBs, at QB.

And on defense--we graduated 8 starters from the 2018 defense. Then Adams passed.

That's not a rebuild?

You have shown yourself to be a Collins hater, but please don't ignore the facts while you spew the hate.

Facts we didn’t even have a division 1 starting qb on the roster and then we start a true freshman qb without an off-season and people are like we regressed, sounds like bulldog fans

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

How can anyone familiar with the roster Collins inherited make such a statement? In terms of Johnson recruits, Collins inherited 1 OL (Quinney) with another P5 offer. One! Then there is Defoor who transferred from Ole Miss. So that's two.

According to Rivals, 4 OL on the ATL chart for the 2019 Clemson matchup in game one of last year had P5 offers other than GT: Maye, Southers, Quinney, & DeFoor. Still pretty thin considering the changes to the offensive scheme. But some of this is on CGC as well, as he had commitments from two CPJ OL with P5 offers, Dowdy & Black, one who went to UL, that he cut loose and didn't let them sign with us.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Facts we didn’t even have a division 1 starting qb on the roster and then we start a true freshman qb without an off-season and people are like we regressed, sounds like bulldog fans

When you say division one, I am going to assume you mean DI-FBS P5, since all our QBs would be starting at DI-FCS and a couple could be starters at some G5 DI-FBS teams.

 

[katlong]

B+ marketing
B+ recruiting
A hype
F on discipline
C- on everything else - some bright spots, some really bad ones.

We will see what years 3, 4, and 5 bring before a real grade can be given. I can't wait until we can stop saying "true freshman", "youngest team", "transitioning from the TO" as reasons for poor performance.

I get that the transfer portal is the thing to do these days and that many teams are seeing a LOT of movement, but it's not helpful to recruit good talent if you can't keep them........so that's something to watch over the next few years.

 

[jojatk]

Frankly, I don't see that we improved this year. We had more yards on offense but roughly the same point production. We didn't lose to the Citadel but we are the lone win on Syracuse's schedule. The trashing from Clemson was embarrassing. Not focusing on the kicking game was just bad coaching.

Now that said, I look to next year to see where we are at. Collins will have his third recruiting class and his system should be fully in place. As I have stated the schedule is brutal so I don't expect 6 wins next year. If he can get 5 then I think we are improving. Of course the schedule the following year is not much better.

For those that give him the seven year plan, if we have another year like this year next year.....recruiting will suffer and to some degree I wonder if it is affecting this year already. Can he develop players, that will be the key.

Last year, if my math is correct (and it may be wrong) we averaged 16.67ppg. This year (same disclaimer) we averaged 23.9ppg. That's quite a big change in point production. In two less games we scored 39 points more than last year. We also improved by about 100ypg in total offensive production. Our defense actually regressed a bit in that regard going from 32.4ppg against to 36.8ppg against. We also were worse on penalties and turnovers this year. On the other hand our defense was better at forcing turnovers so that helped.

Don't take all that to mean I disagree with the rest of your post. I think next year should give us a better handle on the direction things are going.

 

[Tadams6599]

When you say division one, I am going to assume you mean DI-FBS P5, since all our QBs would be starting at DI-FCS and a couple could be starters at some G5 DI-FBS teams.

If you want to be TECHnical you are correct in your assessment Graham will probably get his shot to start at Georgia southern, but as in P5 we had all TO qbs/athletes.

 

[Vespidae]

Last year, if my math is correct (and it may be wrong) we averaged 16.67ppg. This year (same disclaimer) we averaged 23.9ppg. That's quite a big change in point production.

I think a lot of this year over year comparisons are not very useful. I'm not dissing on your comment, but for example, how much production occurred during garbage time when the game outcome was no longer in doubt? It MAY be helpful to look at movement across quartiles, but even that is questionable. I do like looking at turnovers and penalties as an indicator of discipline, but even that is not an exact science as some penalties may be intentional to say, prevent a TD.

I guess the only thing to do is ... wait til next year.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Frankly, I don't see that we improved this year. We had more yards on offense but roughly the same point production. We didn't lose to the Citadel but we are the lone win on Syracuse's schedule. The trashing from Clemson was embarrassing. Not focusing on the kicking game was just bad coaching.

Now that said, I look to next year to see where we are at. Collins will have his third recruiting class and his system should be fully in place. As I have stated the schedule is brutal so I don't expect 6 wins next year. If he can get 5 then I think we are improving. Of course the schedule the following year is not much better.

For those that give him the seven year plan, if we have another year like this year next year.....recruiting will suffer and to some degree I wonder if it is affecting this year already. Can he develop players, that will be the key.

I apologize if I miss followup posts, but this is not true. Our offense averaged 13 points per game in regulation against FBS teams last year. We averaged about 23 points per game this year. That's still not good. But that is absolutely a material change. And offense yardage going from 285 to about 400 is also a big improvement.

The reason I threw out those qualifiers on scoring is the following - we beat Miami last year 28-21. But our offense only scored 7 in regulation. We had a fake punt and a defensive TD and an overtime TD. So its unfair to credit our offense with 28 points when they scored 7. We also had a safety against Temple and I think 1 more defensive score. I think when specifically comparing scoring offenses from one year to the next, only count offensive scoring. I would also add our scoring this year was about 2-3 ppg low because of kicking, which isn't really an offensive problem, but they got hampered by that. In other words if its 4th and 5 on the 10 yard line, that should be a guaranteed 3 points. It wasn't for us, as it was frequently a missed 4th down conversion attempt.

 

[jojatk]

I think a lot of this year over year comparisons are not very useful. I'm not dissing on your comment, but for example, how much production occurred during garbage time when the game outcome was no longer in doubt? It MAY be helpful to look at movement across quartiles, but even that is questionable. I do like looking at turnovers and penalties as an indicator of discipline, but even that is not an exact science as some penalties may be intentional to say, prevent a TD.

I guess the only thing to do is ... wait til next year.

I tend to feel like all that stuff about garbage time actually equals out over the course of a season. But that's besides the point. The poster claimed our offense had roughly the same point production as last season and that just wasn't true. The rest of what I said, I think, agrees with you about needing to wait until next year

 

[AlabamaBuzz]

I think a lot of this year over year comparisons are not very useful. I'm not dissing on your comment, but for example, how much production occurred during garbage time when the game outcome was no longer in doubt? It MAY be helpful to look at movement across quartiles, but even that is questionable. I do like looking at turnovers and penalties as an indicator of discipline, but even that is not an exact science as some penalties may be intentional to say, prevent a TD.

I guess the only thing to do is ... wait til next year.

As usual, I agree with basically all of this, but if the penalties and turnovers and kicking game are not MARKEDLY improved next year, then "Houston, we have a problem". I am concerned we already have a problem, but this year, being so crazy, I think he has to get a pass. But, not another. We get beat more than we win next year will not be a large issue in my mind, as long as we are not beating ourselves.

 

[cthenrys]

As usual, I agree with basically all of this, but if the penalties and turnovers and kicking game are not MARKEDLY improved next year, then "Houston, we have a problem". I am concerned we already have a problem, but this year, being so crazy, I think he has to get a pass. But, not another. We get beat more than we win next year will not be a large issue in my mind, as long as we are not beating ourselves.

Pretty much this. Another 3 win season and the seat is warm to hot. Have to do better next year. A 5-6 win wouldn't excite any one, but it would show measurable improvement. 5-6 wins next year will be difficult due to the schedule.

 

[slugboy]

There are a couple of ways to look at this.

1. Are we progressing?
2. Are we progressing fast enough?
3. Given where we were, are we good enough in year #2?

Teams that win big, usually show it in year 2. However, we were in a weirder situation than most, and this year is a weird year too.

First question—are we progressing? The answer there is “yes”. The one overall number that regresses is special teams. However, that started the year as a dumpster fire, and ended the year as a “yeah, we oughta kick this field goal” situation. Strength of schedule got a lot harder in 2020 than 2019. Some of that is baked in to FEI, but overall, I’d say we moved forward.

(Football Outsiders changed their special teams scoring in 2020, so the chart is weird)

FEI Overall 2019	#107	-0.46	FEI Overall 2020	#91	-0.29
FEI Offense 2019	#100	-0.37	FEI Offense 2020	#78	-0.17
FEI Defense 2019	#96	-0.52	FEI Defense 2020	#73	-0.22
FEI Special Teams 2019	#85	-0.03	FEI Special Teams 2020	#92	-2.4

Did we progress enough?
Offense: I’ll give us a B- on offensive improvement. Running backs are a A.
One side of our offensive line is solid, and the other had issues—but last year, both sides had issues. There’s been significant improvement on the OL, but it’s not as much as I hoped for. I give a C+ here.
At wide receiver, I give a B-. Camp is something else. That group is full of potential, but it mostly stayed as potential.
Tight End: That group hasn’t showed out yet, but I give kudos to a long snapper who’ll go and play TE because someone has to.
QB: Sims is an A++ on potential, but this year he’s a C in execution, and that’s the QB grade. That’s understandable in a freshman. I care more about how he plays next year, and if it’s a sophomore slump, or the big step up that he needs to take.

OC: I give Patenaude a B. He’s a solid OC, but he doesn’t disguise as much as I’d like (though some of that might be because of practice restrictions and possibly not having a full playbook implemented).
Patenaude has been second-guessed on his play calling. For the most part, I’d say he’s done better than he’s given credit for. The one thing I will second guess is that he has multiple talented backs. UCF would put one in the slot, and gave themselves options to run the tailback or pitch to the slot back. I know it’s not his base offense, but if I was in his shoes, I would have done that.
In the Syracuse game, they had a strategy to neutralize our offensive line, and we never overcame it. That happened in more than one game.

Defense: Overall, I grade this group more harshly. There is talent at DE. DT has a ton of heart, and those guys are getting close. Curry’s last couple of games at LB were solid, but he’s playing the best at LB. The defense we play depends on fast decisions and hitting the right gap quickly. We just got “caught up in the wash” way too often.
One poster said “you can cover the QB, or you can cover the receiver, but the one place you don’t want to be is halfway between the two”. We did that a few times this year, and being indecisive killed us—especially early in the season.
Communications between the secondary and the front 6 hurt. I saw—even at the end of the season—players in the secondary going to a gap that was already covered. I’m not sure what the issue was, but that needs to be fixed. That’s why I rate the defensive progression from last year at a C-.
I’m not sure if it’s Thacker or if it’s Collins, but someone needs to take the defense and get it playing as a consistent 11, instead of 6 players and 5 players on the field at the same time.

Special teams started as a dumpster fire, and ended the season as a “OK, this is halfway decent if we can just get the kickoff coverage team to maintain lane assignments”. I’d rate that a C.

Third question: Are we where we should be for year #2?
For a normal transition, we’d be behind. Our defense for 10 years has been about what it is right now. We haven’t taken a step up there. With COVID, I’ll give a partial waiver, but this is still an “incomplete”.
On offense, we needed to hit on at least one more lineman. Losing out on a transfer hurt. We desperately need to fix that.
In absolute progress, I’d rate us a C-, but am willing to give an “incomplete” under the circumstances.

 

[bke1984]

B -The wins and losses are irrelevant for me

So what’s relevant? Also, the pandemic is no excuse, as everyone else is playing under the same circumstances. Judge the improvement or lack thereof. Recruiting has been good. Offense feels a little better. One thing I can say without a doubt...we are one of the least disciplined teams in football right now. You don’t turn the ball over as much and commit as many penalties as we do and blame it on bad luck and refs. If we had that crap under control we probably have 5+ wins

 

[alagold]

After last yr on Off ,our biggest problem this yr on O were the bad TOs.The Syr game was really the only other game we had a real chance to win and completely bungled that.
DEF tried hard in the front 7 but wereoverwhelmed a bunch.The DBs were a disappointment even accounting for the weak rush.
FGs AGAIN were a disaster. Punting great.Other STs was just ok.
Overall a c.

 

[TruckStick]

2021 is the deciding year. Most predicted the first two would be hard. 6+ wins for me in 2021 gotta do it.

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

So what’s relevant? Also, the pandemic is no excuse, as everyone else is playing under the same circumstances. Judge the improvement or lack thereof. Recruiting has been good. Offense feels a little better. One thing I can say without a doubt...we are one of the least disciplined teams in football right now. You don’t turn the ball over as much and commit as many penalties as we do and blame it on bad luck and refs. If we had that crap under control we probably have 5+ wins

In the first couple years coming off running a 1940s offense with 1940s players the wins and losses are irrelevant. Saban wouldn't be winning in the first couple years with that situation and this schedule. And no everyone isn't playing under the same circumstances. Established veteran teams have an advantage over those with new staffs and young players, who needed the spring practice a lot more.

2021 should be better and 2022 when we really start to judge things.

 

[JorgeJonas]

I would like to see some consensus on when the results matter.

To the extent that they don’t right now, and to the degree that recruiting rankings are predictive, then that’s what should be the driver of his letter grade now. On that, truthfully, the results don’t match the hype. Rivals ranks it 32nd. ESPN has it rated 42nd. That’s behind six of the eight teams that we play every year (Duke and Virginia Tech are behind us). Maybe he gets it going, but it’s hard to make the case that recruiting has been anything better than mediocre, and I’m not optimistic it gets much better.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

In the first couple years coming off running a 1940s offense with 1940s players the wins and losses are irrelevant. Saban wouldn't be winning in the first couple years with that situation and this schedule. And no everyone isn't playing under the same circumstances. Established veteran teams have an advantage over those with new staffs and young players, who needed the spring practice a lot more.

2021 should be better and 2022 when we really start to judge things.

1940’s???

 

[Vespidae]

Saban wouldn't be winning in the first couple years with that situation and this schedule.

I agree that the W-L record wouldn’t be great, but ... a Saban team wouldn’t finish near the bottom of FBS (124th) in Fewest Penalties and Turnover Margin (110th). To be competitive at this stage, you have to exploit everything under your control and did we? I don’t think so.

I did an analysis earlier this week. We scored 239 points this year and gave up 368. Penalty yardage alone was worth 49.5 points. In other words, with some discipline, the outcome would have been more like 288.5:318.5 and possibly resulted in 1-2 more wins with the same players.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

In the first couple years coming off running a 1940s offense with 1940s players the wins and losses are irrelevant. Saban wouldn't be winning in the first couple years with that situation and this schedule. And no everyone isn't playing under the same circumstances. Established veteran teams have an advantage over those with new staffs and young players, who needed the spring practice a lot more.

2021 should be better and 2022 when we really start to judge things.

If we were playing players from the 40's, I'm pretty impressed with CGC. Wining 6 games in two years with a roster of 70 years olds is unheard of...