Clemson favored early spread

[57jacket]

Regardless of the outcome, the anticipation for this game feels like a serious rivalry. It feels like Dabo really wants to win this one and make a point. Clearly, Tech would also like to make a statement about their season with this one.

I just don't want us fans to implode if we lose big. It's O against D, a very talented D, that hasn't yet lived up to their capability. We'll need 28+ pts. to win I think.

 

[Root4GT]

I just don't want us fans to implode if we lose big. It's O against D, a very talented D, that hasn't yet lived up to their capability. We'll need 28+ pts. to win I think.

I would raise the number we need to 35. That is a tall task against Clemson. I just don’t see our defense stopping Clemson running the ball all over our defense.

 

[bensaysitathome]

I would raise the number we need to 35. That is a tall task against Clemson. I just don’t see our defense stopping Clemson running the ball all over our defense.

Yeah, I too am concerned that with Shipley back, they just run it and command TOP all day. I think the 30's is the right target number, but that target goes down if we can snag a couple turnovers and limit their possessions.

+2 in the turnover margin, and our Oline sustains drives, and I could see something like a 28-24 win. If we let them dictate the pace of play like UNC, we'll need a lot more.

 

[slugboy]

I just don't want us fans to implode if we lose big. It's O against D, a very talented D, that hasn't yet lived up to their capability. We'll need 28+ pts. to win I think.

We have won only one game where we scored less than 30, and that was Miami, and it took a near-miracle.

Clemson also only won one game when they scored less than 30, and that was the Wake game: 17-12. A pick-6 was the difference in the Notre Dame game—Clemson’s offense scored 24 there.

Notre Dame, FSU, Duke, NCST, and Miami are all top 25 defenses (FEI), and Clemson went 1-4 against them. They lose most of the time to great defense and enough offense. Wake is #40 in defense, and held them to 17, but lost.

Offense needs to do something, and defense needs to play well. It’s possible to win 28-20 against Clemson —Miami did with 2 overtimes — but scoring 30 makes it a lot easier.

This game can go a lot of ways. Winning the turnover battle is huge. Staying ahead of the chains is huge. Making positive plays is huge.

 

[TromboneJacket]

We have won only one game where we scored less than 30, and that was Miami, and it took a near-miracle.

Clemson also only won one game when they scored less than 30, and that was the Wake game: 17-12. A pick-6 was the difference in the Notre Dame game—Clemson’s offense scored 24 there.

Notre Dame, FSU, Duke, NCST, and Miami are all top 25 defenses (FEI), and Clemson went 1-4 against them. They lose most of the time to great defense and enough offense. Wake is #40 in defense, and held them to 17, but lost.

Offense needs to do something, and defense needs to play well. It’s possible to win 28-20 against Clemson —Miami did with 2 overtimes — but scoring 30 makes it a lot easier.

This game can go a lot of ways. Winning the turnover battle is huge. Staying ahead of the chains is huge. Making positive plays is huge.

I envision our offense having a slow start due to Clemson having such a strong defense. We’ll need the defense to play well early on to keep the game close while our offense gets going. Fortunately, our offense seems to get better as the game goes on. Key and Faulkner must have gotten some good advice from CPJ when he was in Atlanta.

 

[slugboy]

I envision our offense having a slow start due to Clemson having such a strong defense. We’ll need the defense to play well early on to keep the game close while our offense gets going. Fortunately, our offense seems to get better as the game goes on. Key and Faulkner must have gotten some good advice from CPJ when he was in Atlanta.

I don’t care if we run a single wing and a 52 defense , as long as we win

 

[roadkill]

Yeah, I too am concerned that with Shipley back, they just run it and command TOP all day. I think the 30's is the right target number, but that target goes down if we can snag a couple turnovers and limit their possessions.

+2 in the turnover margin, and our Oline sustains drives, and I could see something like a 28-24 win. If we let them dictate the pace of play like UNC, we'll need a lot more.

If I were calling plays for Clemson, this is what I would do. It takes advantage of our weak run defense and keeps our potent offense off the field. If I were game-planning for us, I would anticipate that this is what Clemson will do, so I'd set up to try and stop their run game and make their offense try to beat us through the air. They might make some big plays but might also give us more opportunities for takeaways and help our ToP.

 

[stinger78]

I just don't want us fans to implode if we lose big. It's O against D, a very talented D, that hasn't yet lived up to their capability. We'll need 28+ pts. to win I think.

I agree. I think most understand that Clemson is a very dangerous team that has underperformed most of the season. If they breakout against us it could get ugly, or if their very good D is able to stifle our O. Both could happen, both might not. IMPO, this game could go a lot of ways.

 

[Lotta Booze]

If I were calling plays for Clemson, this is what I would do. It takes advantage of our weak run defense and keeps our potent offense off the field. If I were game-planning for us, I would anticipate that this is what Clemson will do, so I'd set up to try and stop their run game and make their offense try to beat us through the air. They might make some big plays but might also give us more opportunities for takeaways and help our ToP.

Yeah, that's what makes the most sense on their end is to just run it until we can stop it. I kinda think this game will play out similar to the Miami game (save the bizarre ending) where Clemson will likely outgain us by quite a bit but we can hopefully bow up in the red zone and prevent them from scoring a bunch. Clemson outgained Duke in yardage to start the year, got more first downs, but just couldn't get points.
I think our offense is better now than the Miami game so I think we shoul look better throughout the whole game but it will definitely be tough sledding.
Defensively, we need to force Klubnik to beat us with his arm.

 

[stinger78]

Yeah, that's what makes the most sense on their end is to just run it until we can stop it. I kinda think this game will play out similar to the Miami game (save the bizarre ending) where Clemson will likely outgain us by quite a bit but we can hopefully bow up in the red zone and prevent them from scoring a bunch. Clemson outgained Duke in yardage to start the year, got more first downs, but just couldn't get points.
I think our offense is better now than the Miami game so I think we shoul look better throughout the whole game but it will definitely be tough sledding.
Defensively, we need to force Klubnik to beat us with his arm.

Therein lies the test for this Saturday. Can we stop Shipley and Mufu(?) short of 250 combined yards? No one knows until they run onto the field on Saturday.

 

[g0lftime]

I envision our offense having a slow start due to Clemson having such a strong defense. We’ll need the defense to play well early on to keep the game close while our offense gets going. Fortunately, our offense seems to get better as the game goes on. Key and Faulkner must have gotten some good advice from CPJ when he was in Atlanta.

Can't fall too far behind. We will get a big dose of runs to eat number of possessions, wear down our D and keep pressure off their QB.

 

[CEB]

Can't fall too far behind. We will get a big dose of runs to eat number of possessions, wear down our D and keep pressure off their QB.

Agree with this. O needs to keep pace and take advantage of opportunities. Hopefully the D is able to provide them with an opportunity or two.
If we stay in a one score game, I like our chances. Getting down two scores probably becomes 3 scores very quickly.

 

[UgaBlows]

I envision our offense having a slow start due to Clemson having such a strong defense. We’ll need the defense to play well early on to keep the game close while our offense gets going. Fortunately, our offense seems to get better as the game goes on. Key and Faulkner must have gotten some good advice from CPJ when he was in Atlanta.

I wish we could get him to come sit with Faulkner in the press box just to freak clemson folks out

 

[slugboy]

I've seen some people say "If I were Dabo, I'd run the ball and then I'd run the ball more". With that in mind (thank you GameOnPaper for being free)

When Passing
Plays	340
Plays/Game	38 T-#25
Total EPA	8.74 #63
EPA/Play	0.03 #65
EPA/Game	0.97 #63
Success Rate	44.7% #41

When Rushing
Plays	312
Plays/Game	35 T-#47
Total EPA	-12.80 #102
EPA/Play	-0.04 #97
EPA/Game	-1.42 #102
Success Rate	44.5% #28

So, Clemson's passing game contributes to them winning a lot more than their running game does. They have 15 TDs through the air, and 16 on the ground, but 3 of the rushing TDs are from Klubnik.
In their wins,

• Notre Dame: Clemson's offensive stats weren't great. 187 yards rushing (186 from Mafah), passed for 109 yards, one INT, one sack, xQBR of 25
• Charleston Southern and FAU: I do not think these games are going to tell us much, so I'm ignoring them.
• Syracuse: 263 through the air, 143 on the ground. 6.6 yards/play passing; 4.5 yards/play rushing. xQBR of 81. Big plays were 2 TD passes by Klubnik. Story of the game is that the defense completely bottled up Syracuse--even with Shrader.
• Wake Forest: won 17-12. Shipley ran for a TD and so did Klubnik. Passed for 131, ran for 217.

It looks more like Clemson is going to get some yards on the ground. They might score a lot, but they win more by choking out your offense than they do by boat racing you with their offense.

 

[bobongo]

I've seen some people say "If I were Dabo, I'd run the ball and then I'd run the ball more". With that in mind (thank you GameOnPaper for being free)

When Passing
Plays	340
Plays/Game	38 T-#25
Total EPA	8.74 #63
EPA/Play	0.03 #65
EPA/Game	0.97 #63
Success Rate	44.7% #41

When Rushing
Plays	312
Plays/Game	35 T-#47
Total EPA	-12.80 #102
EPA/Play	-0.04 #97
EPA/Game	-1.42 #102
Success Rate	44.5% #28

So, Clemson's passing game contributes to them winning a lot more than their running game does. They have 15 TDs through the air, and 16 on the ground, but 3 of the rushing TDs are from Klubnik.
In their wins,

• Notre Dame: Clemson's offensive stats weren't great. 187 yards rushing (186 from Mafah), passed for 109 yards, one INT, one sack, xQBR of 25
• Charleston Southern and FAU: I do not think these games are going to tell us much, so I'm ignoring them.
• Syracuse: 263 through the air, 143 on the ground. 6.6 yards/play passing; 4.5 yards/play rushing. xQBR of 81. Big plays were 2 TD passes by Klubnik. Story of the game is that the defense completely bottled up Syracuse--even with Shrader.
• Wake Forest: won 17-12. Shipley ran for a TD and so did Klubnik. Passed for 131, ran for 217.

It looks more like Clemson is going to get some yards on the ground. They might score a lot, but they win more by choking out your offense than they do by boat racing you with their offense.

Most teams gain more yards passing than rushing.
Tech is 129th in rushing defense (220 yds per game) and 77th in passing yards allowed per game (235). I guess that's why they say Clemson would be wise to run the ball.

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[Tech93]

I think we win this one.

 

[UgaBlows]

 

[Lil G]

Somebody can fact check me, but our run defense seems much better since the coaching switch up. BC being the exception due their QB scrambles, which Klubnik is half as talented at.

There have been a handful of teams that contained Clemson’s run pretty well (putting them at 83rd in yards per rush) and I think we will be one.
Our pass defense can be exposed (see UNC numbers) but I think we keep them under 30 points - which I believe will be just low enough for King to Triumph.
They will be in our backfield all day, but the boy is used to it.

6-4 and the filthy dawgs start to get nervous.

 

[stinger78]

Somebody can fact check me, but our run defense seems much better since the coaching switch up. BC being the exception due their QB scrambles, which Klubnik is half as talented at.

There have been a handful of teams that contained Clemson’s run pretty well (putting them at 83rd in yards per rush) and I think we will be one.
Our pass defense can be exposed (see UNC numbers) but I think we keep them under 30 points - which I believe will be just low enough for King to Triumph.
They will be in our backfield all day, but the boy is used to it.

6-4 and the filthy dawgs start to get nervous.

Our weakness is a running QB. Klubnik isn't that. I don't think we have to worry about that one.

Our next weakness is a dominant OL running the ball. Clemson's rushing O is #68 - not horrible, but not scary. BC's is ranked #9. No comparison, though if CU gets Shipley untracked, they can control the ball well. Ours is ranked #13.

Our strongest area of D is pass D. Clemson's Pass Efficiency O is #78. They are not good at this, but again, not bad. Meanwhile, our pass efficiency O is #41.

We have the better of the two offenses. I don't think they will score a lot of points on us (say, over 30) unless we give them points. However, they may be able to control the ball and limit our O. That is a minor concern.

My major concern is their D will shut our O down. Clemson is #6 in total D.

 

[Tech Lawyer]

Seems pretty obvious to me. Stack the box on first down and get them into second down and eight. If they try to throw on on first down, I like our DBs v their WRs.