Clemson favored early spread

[Northeast Stinger]

He means the projected game spread from SP+. The model is kicking out a 15 point differential

SP+ has Clemson as the #23 team in the country, and us in the mid-60s, I believe. They’ve played a tough schedule, beaten up on weaker teams, and tripped against some of the better teams on their schedule. Their defense is top 10. Their offense is surprisingly efficient, and they have stud players. Aside from the Duke game, they just have enough brain farts to fall short in a big game or two.

If you aren’t a stats person, look at their games. They have talent, and they barely lost the games they lost.

They look like a top 15 team. They have a terrible record this year, though. It doesn’t add up

Agree completely. They are one of the strongest teams I’ve ever seen to have such a bad record. They would test the best teams in any conference.

 

[BurdellJacket]

Just because we get punched in the mouth doesn’t mean we won’t punch back. Should we expect 500+ yards? Probably not. Does that mean we’ll only get 200 yards and 40% completion rate? Also no. 375 yards and 24 points could win this weekend.

I’ll second this. Clemson’s offense is exceedingly pedestrian. The only reason they beat ND is that the Domer’s offense last weekend was exceedingly atrocious. Hartman was 13-30 for 146 yards and 2 int’s. Klubnik for Clemson was just about as bad at 13-26, 109 yds, 1 td, 1 int. If we give Haynes pretty good protection, we win!

 

[GT33]

…and the presence of Dontae. He runs harder than the other two. Haynes is a shifty back capable of making a defender miss and going for big yardage Dontae is a hard hitter capable of breaking through for big yardage. They are a nice 1-2 punch.

What impresses me about Haynes is his leg drive when 3-4 players are trying to get him down. This kid’s gonna be one of our all time top RBs if he stays healthy.

 

[TechPhi97]

I agree I think Clemson is better than most on here think. We would have been better playing them early in the year.
Not saying we can't win but I don't like our odds. I just think their offense is better than our defense.

I think we're alot better than we were early in the year, too.

 

[stinger78]

What impresses me about Haynes is his leg drive when 3-4 players are trying to get him down. This kid’s gonna be one of our all time top RBs if he stays healthy.

Haynes must have very strong legs, with very strong leg drive and amazing balance, and gets great leverage when he's covered up. I've been impressed as well.

 

[slugboy]

I’ll second this. Clemson’s offense is exceedingly pedestrian. The only reason they beat ND is that the Domer’s offense last weekend was exceedingly atrocious. Hartman was 13-30 for 146 yards and 2 int’s. Klubnik for Clemson was just about as bad at 13-26, 109 yds, 1 td, 1 int. If we give Haynes pretty good protection, we win!

Watch the Clemson-ND game (if you haven’t). Clemson tore up a beefy ND OLine. Hartman looks like a draftable QB, and Clemson did a great job containing him.

 

[UgaBlows]

Watch the Clemson-ND game (if you haven’t). Clemson tore up a beefy ND OLine. Hartman looks like a draftable QB, and Clemson did a great job containing him.

Someone send this to Key quick- we should do the exact opposite of ND’s gameplan

 

[bucknellbison31]

My impression is that Clemson is strong where we are weak. Best defense in ACC, strong line on both sides of the ball, power running game, etc.

In theory they could limit our offense and slowly grind us down. As has been pointed out, they are loaded with talent. If we beat Clemson it will mean Coach Key has accomplished one of the most dramatic turnarounds in a coach’s first year in the history of college football.

So, two things. One. Beating Clemson is not at all likely. Two. If Tech miraculously wins, there are those who will immediately reassess Clemson, LOL.

Well, considering you gave us a "slim chance" against UVA, "not at all likely" makes me feel like we've got a pretty good shot...

 

[forensicbuzz]

I wasn't talking about Vegas.

Even if I was, your take is certainly wrong. How well teams are currently playing isn't the *only* input, but without a doubt, Vegas is running computer models to help come up with their opening line and what they deem to be the "true line" is definitely a part of the equation.

Sorry. Maybe I picked the wrong post to respond to. But, I'm not wrong. Although they are using algorithms to determine the line, it's ALL about getting people to bet evenly on either side of the line. The House always wins. That's why lines move depending on where the money is being laid. I realize this is all something you already know.

 

[forensicbuzz]

I’ll second this. Clemson’s offense is exceedingly pedestrian. The only reason they beat ND is that the Domer’s offense last weekend was exceedingly atrocious. Hartman was 13-30 for 146 yards and 2 int’s. Klubnik for Clemson was just about as bad at 13-26, 109 yds, 1 td, 1 int. If we give Haynes pretty good protection, we win!

You don't think Clemson's defense had a lot to do with Hartman's performance? I think our row is going to be chocked full of rocks and dirt clods.

 

[ibeattetris]

ESPN’s Connelly picks Clemson by nearly 16

FEI has Clemson by 9.4 (27.3 to 17.9)

 

[roadkill]

So, Clemson’s largest margin of victory this season was 17 points against Syracuse. They beat Wake by 5 at home. Yet models say they should beat us by 16? I think we are better than Syracuse and Wake, especially now. What gives?

Edit: I posted before I saw @ibeattetris post. The FEI margin makes a little more sense to me.

 

[BurdellJacket]

You don't think Clemson's defense had a lot to do with Hartman's performance? I think our row is going to be chocked full of rocks and dirt clods.

Louisville made Hartman and the ND offense look just about as feckless as did Clemson. And Tech scored 34 against the Cardinals.

 

[UgaBlows]

Could it be that ND just in’t all that good? Hear me out now, i’m telling you that there is a slight possibility that the experts MAY have slightly overrated them early on…

 

[bobongo]

So, Clemson’s largest margin of victory this season was 17 points against Syracuse. They beat Wake by 5 at home. Yet models say they should beat us by 16? I think we are better than Syracuse and Wake, especially now. What gives?

Edit: I posted before I saw @ibeattetris post. The FEI margin makes a little more sense to me.

You had it right the first time. The only numbers that count are the ones on the scoreboard.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Well, considering you gave us a "slim chance" against UVA, "not at all likely" makes me feel like we've got a pretty good shot...

You’re catching on.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Despite all that talent they have still lost 4 games just like us but all of them in the ACC. Until this past Saturday they hadn't beaten anyone of note. That said, yes they have a lot of talent. And yes they have talented offensive and defensive lines. But we have faced lines just as talented in UNC and Miami and have beaten both. I think the point spread for this game is more reflective of their win this past Saturday than how they have performed YTD. The game is in Clemson but playing on the road is kind of our thing. So we will see if we can overcome their talent with heart and "consistency". I'm looking forward to seeing how we measure up.

After reading all these comments, I am left wondering if Clemson fans would like to have DJ back instead of the one they have now (Klubick?) I poised that question to the two rabid Clemson fans at church Sunday and they looked at me like I was crazy. Of course, DJ has managed to lose the starting job at Oregon State and is now a special purpose wildcat back for short yardage situations. He has gone from being a 5 star can't miss prospect out of high school to losing the starting job at two different programs. Rare feat that.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Louisville made Hartman and the ND offense look just about as feckless as did Clemson. And Tech scored 34 against the Cardinals.

I don't understand this response. Why does everything have to be a zero-sum game? Clemson can have a really good defense, making a really good QB look bad without that being an indictment on anything to do with Georgia Tech.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I don't understand this response. Why does everything have to be a zero-sum game? Clemson can have a really good defense, making a really good QB look bad without that being an indictment on anything to do with Georgia Tech.

I think his point was….never mind. I think y’all are talking past each other.

Anyway, you are right. More than one thing can be true at the same time. Clemson’s defense is formidable and will be a stern test for Tech. On the other hand, Tech has shown that it can score points against teams that previously appeared to have strong defenses.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

How many people have watched a Clemson game this year?

Here’s their last game


Here’s the condensed version (25 minutes)


If I didn’t know anything else like the season records watching this game, and you told me one team was unranked, I’d say you were kidding. If you forced me to pick from the video, I’d say Clemson was the ranked team.

This does not look like a mediocre offensive line.

Here’s the Duke game they lost at the start of the season

My impressions from watching the condensed game.
1) Clemson has the best defensive line we will have faced. If they know you have to pass, they are relentless. Hartman was under duress the entire second half it seemed.
2) As "Ballin" pointed out number 7 for Clemson is better than Shipley. He did have a pretty bad fumble late that could have been a disaster but otherwise was a fine power running back. Big, strong, not real fast but fast enough. Oddly, Notre Dame's big back was also number 7 and that guy was even bigger, huge in fact.
3) Kublick is looking better at quarterback than he did earlier in the year. He is decisive and clearly outplayed Hartman but a lot of that was due to having a cleaner pocket most of the time. Not a real threat to run the ball but athletic enough to move around.
4) Number 54 for Clemson is a ball player. He is a linebacker and makes plays. He looks, at least to me, to be the bell cow on that defense. He had at least one sack and an interception that he returned for a TD, I think.
5) Clemson's offensive line held up against a typically huge Notre Dame defensive front four.
6) I do not understand this fascination that these offensive coordinators have with wide receiver screens, tunnel screens and the like. Both teams tried them multiple times and none of them worked.
7) If I were the Clemson offensive coordinator, I would take by big back #7 and run him right at Tech. Nothing fancy just power runs between the tackles and when he gets tired bring #20 in who is more of a scat back for a change of pace.
8) Clemson is better, considerably better than their record and they are better without DJ for sure. A really good team that is probably second or third best in the ACC.