CFP Discussion

[MusicalBuzz]

What are you talking about? Every one of the big leagues puts teams like that in the playoffs. Baltimore won a superbowl with a QB that couldn’t hit the water from the dock.

Wow.. you’re usually much more tempered than “what are talking about”.

But the analog here is about record. Which I assumed is what you were alluding to re: Chiefs is that their record gets them in the playoffs it stands now, irrespective if Mahomes goes down. But the Falcons also get in ... but no person anywhere would suggest they are among the top teams.. even with their QB. Of course, obviously the NFL is a completely structure. IDK.. sorry if I missed the point.

 

[Techster]

The bcs selection criteria was far and away better than a closed council with no oversight.

Mike Greenburg said they've turned the CFP selection process into Figure Skating. It's become subjective. He's right.

Let the computers take back control, and let the numbers fall where they may. Even ESPN's metrics would have favored FSU over 'Bama...and Texas.

Of course, it seems they "hacked" the process to favor what was most beneficial to certain commercial interests.

 

[cpf2001]

The BCS formula would have had FSU but was very close to dropping them.



Imagine if Washington had lost and this was the BCS era and we ended up with Michigan/Alabama as the title game.

Or if just a few second-order SOS differences due to what opponents of each team would have put Texas in over FSU regardless of injuries, the same way it had Alabama over FSU. It wouldn't have in this exact scenario today, but you could keep the top 5 teams with their same records and replay other teams' games and have different rankings come out - we've been happily (er... not happily) talking about hypotheticals all thread long, so that one seems just as relevant as the "the committee would've left FSU out even without the injury" possibility.

Point being: the nostalgia instead of looking forward to next year is nuts, "top 4 in BCS" would have the same possibilities to screw over an undefeated P5 champ, this era is definitely no worse than the BCS era, even though it was fundamentally still pretty stupid in a way that can be seen by comparing the number of P5 conferences with the number of playoff spots.

 

[Root4GT]

Mike Greenburg said they've turned the CFP selection process into Figure Skating. It's become subjective. He's right.

Let the computers take back control, and let the numbers fall where they may. Even ESPN's metrics would have favored FSU over 'Bama...and Texas.

Of course, it seems they "hacked" the process to favor what was most beneficial to certain commercial interests.

Computers are no better than humans when you have 130 teams that play 12 games.

Just look at the NCAAT and how dependent they are on computers. Their only saving Grace is most people don’t care about teams 60-64.

Same will be true next year in the CFP. Most people won’t care about team 12 or 13.

FSU got screwed and this system is history.

 

[Techster]

Computers are no better than humans when you have 130 teams that play 12 games.

Just look at the NCAAT and how dependent they are on computers. Their only saving Grace is most people don’t care about teams 60-64.

Same will be true next year in the CFP. Most people won’t care about team 12 or 13.

FSU got screwed and this system is history.

No, but it takes the "beauty pagent" element out of it.

I'll take that over a group of 13 people who can by swayed by outside factors on any given day.

 

[cpf2001]

In the average year the “a p5 undefeated conference champ shouldn’t be left out” crowd is more likely to be happy with humans than computers since that conference title is an arbitrary thing compared to factors like “how much worse would Louisville need to be for FSU to fall behind both Alabama and Texas in the BCS.” It isn’t hard to find computer rankings that have FSU considerably out of the top 4 right now.

So you start layering restrictions and rules on top and then it’s just a beauty pageant by your rules instead of someone else’s… aka still just repeating the BCS era which everyone hated pretty much every year.

 

[ibeattetris]

In the average year the “a p5 undefeated conference champ shouldn’t be left out” crowd is more likely to be happy with humans than computers since that conference title is an arbitrary thing compared to factors like “how much worse would Louisville need to be for FSU to fall behind both Alabama and Texas in the BCS.” It isn’t hard to find computer rankings that have FSU considerably out of the top 4 right now.

So you start layering restrictions and rules on top and then it’s just a beauty pageant by your rules instead of someone else’s… aka still just repeating the BCS era which everyone hated pretty much every year.

The current computers (even the one in that earlier tweet) are using MOV based polls which weren’t allowed in the BCS era. We will never know what a real final 4 BCS will look like this year, but we know that even with MOV taken into account, FSU is correctly in the top 4.

 

[Bogey]

This seems a good time to remind that a Committee — subject to any manner of influence and bias and unaccountable — to determine CFB is another in a steady line of disruptive decisions by NCAA and power players (which was then closely followed by NIL and Transfer Portal), and is fundamentally un-American.

Although not so long ago so many were complaining about inaccuracies of the AP, the Coaches and various computer polls, where inexplicably some one person would list, for example, Liberty as #1 ranked — I would be very enlightened for a perspective on how 100+ AP, and 60+ coaches, and several computer models don’t balance out outlier influencers. Which is exact opposite of the status quo. The BCS had it rights and always did. And fans and the power players screwed it up as they continue to do (see: NIL, TP).

If my existence is going to be decided out of my control, I sure as hell don’t want that decision by some all-powerful, and very likely directed and compromised,“Committee”. (that’s what Britain does, no?)

A camel is an example of a horse that was designed by a committee.

 

[GT33]

My biggest problem with this whole thing is our Institute has been systematically materially damaged by a small group of people at ESPN, NCAA and ACC HQs for a very long time. I'm not sure what the $$ damage is, but it's likely north of $20M. We're not talking about chump change here. These people have damaged fanbases and enriched others, maneuvered some conferences towrds lucrative bowls and others to bad ones, destroyed rivalry games, cost them tons in tv revenue, impeded recruiting, etc. Think off all the times we've been screwed, it's no coincidence. The evidence is now out there with the public admissions and it's clear as day.

 

[slugboy]

No, but it takes the "beauty pagent" element out of it.

I'll take that over a group of 13 people who can by swayed by outside factors on any given day.

There were complaints in the BCS era that top teams left their starters in too long to pile up points (one of the reasons we have the concept of “garbage time”), but teams had a idea of what they had to do to qualify.

Now, the rules are made up and the points don’t matter

 

[awbuzz]

Who's the motivated team?

Georgia beating FSU proves nothing. So what? You still lost to Bama.

FSU beating Georgia: "See? We belonged, and we are STILL undefeated."

Problem is, I'm not sure FSU wins this game.

Oh, but what a JOY it will be if they do!

 

[Root4GT]

The current computers (even the one in that earlier tweet) are using MOV based polls which weren’t allowed in the BCS era. We will never know what a real final 4 BCS will look like this year, but we know that even with MOV taken into account, FSU is correctly in the top 4.

Of course the same computers put Georgia in over Alabama after they just lost to Alabama in the Conference Championship Game. Defend that logic!

 

[bobongo]

Of course the same computers put Georgia in over Alabama after they just lost to Alabama in the Conference Championship Game. Defend that logic!

It would appear those computers aren't programmed to give sufficient weight to head-to-head competition. Of course, A.I. will tell us how much weight to give it in the future.

 

[slugboy]

Of course the same computers put Georgia in over Alabama after they just lost to Alabama in the Conference Championship Game. Defend that logic!

In the NFL, if two teams were tied by record, they might use head to head as a defined tiebreaker. For the computers polls, they don’t use that as a tiebreaker—they use your overall season, and something like your margin of victory weighted by your strength of schedule.

The latter approach works a lot better when you’re comparing more than two teams, because one-off head to head comparisons lead to transitive wins (Alabama beat UGA who beat someone who beat Texas who beat Alabama).

Either way, the NFL gives you a set of rules before the season, and you know what you have to do. When every other rule fails, they flip a coin. They don’t sit a bunch of people in a room and select the Cowboys because they have the highest ratings.

 

[Root4GT]

In the NFL, if two teams were tied by record, they might use head to head as a defined tiebreaker. For the computers polls, they don’t use that as a tiebreaker—they use your overall season, and something like your margin of victory weighted by your strength of schedule.

The latter approach works a lot better when you’re comparing more than two teams, because one-off head to head comparisons lead to transitive wins (Alabama beat UGA who beat someone who beat Texas who beat Alabama).

Either way, the NFL gives you a set of rules before the season, and you know what you have to do. When every other rule fails, they flip a coin. They don’t sit a bunch of people in a room and select the Cowboys because they have the highest ratings.

The problem is there are 130 teams in the FBS. They play 12 games and then Conference Championship Games.

Per your computers are better UGA lost the SEC Championship Game to Alabama, had the same overall record yet the Computers seem UGA better.

That is simply absure and shows computers are no better than humans at picking 4 teams for a playoff.

Going to 12 teams will help as the delta between the top 4-7/8 is clear and distinct from team 12/13.

This year would have been a 12 team playoff except the ACC, Big12 and PAC 12 all got butt hurt when Texas and Oklahoma said they were moving to the SEC and voted against the 12 team playoff starting in 2023. Making decisions based on anger generally does not work out well

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

The UGA-FSU does not matter at all because both teams will have many opt outs. No bowl games mean anything other than for the practices. But even those are compromised because

My biggest problem with this whole thing is our Institute has been systematically materially damaged by a small group of people at ESPN, NCAA and ACC HQs for a very long time. I'm not sure what the $$ damage is, but it's likely north of $20M. We're not talking about chump change here. These people have damaged fanbases and enriched others, maneuvered some conferences towrds lucrative bowls and others to bad ones, destroyed rivalry games, cost them tons in tv revenue, impeded recruiting, etc. Think of all the times we've been screwed, it's no coincidence. The evidence is now out there with the public admissions and it's clear as day.

You can say this exact thing for the past 100 years. Why did the NCAA (who supposedly had academics standards in place) allow some schools to play illiterates while others could not? It has always been rigged and I’m glad large number of fans are now seeing it, but it does upset me that these same people screaming about the “unfairness“ of of it were silent while all the other corruption was taking place which led to where we are today. Especially GT fans. Schools like GT have been screwed for 60 years and we still have fans posting here today who want to keep the status quo. It’s just unbelievable to me how any GT fan doesn’t want the entire system to fail. The system hates GT and loves UGA. Let it all crumble and burn.

 

[stinger78]

I don’t think it was butthurt. I think it was a function of the same distrust that we discuss today. That the B1G then stepped up and pilfered UCLA and USC blew all that. It’s just massive distrust that prevails. Everyone is more interested in one-upping or keeping up than what’s good for CFB. Thus, the destruction that is following.

 

[FredJacket]

This is funny, at least.

 

[slugboy]

The problem is there are 130 teams in the FBS. They play 12 games and then Conference Championship Games.

Per your computers are better UGA lost the SEC Championship Game to Alabama, had the same overall record yet the Computers seem UGA better.

That is simply absure and shows computers are no better than humans at picking 4 teams for a playoff.

Going to 12 teams will help as the delta between the top 4-7/8 is clear and distinct from team 12/13.

This year would have been a 12 team playoff except the ACC, Big12 and PAC 12 all got butt hurt when Texas and Oklahoma said they were moving to the SEC and voted against the 12 team playoff starting in 2023. Making decisions based on anger generally does not work out well

There are lots of ways to pick teams. There are lots of reasons to pick UGA over Alabama. We could easily set the criteria so that the loser of the championship game is out, though

But having an ad-hoc and inconsistent committee process for selecting teams with vague and subjective rules is about as bad as you can get.

If a computer model was secret and proprietary, that would also be terrible.

How would people here like it if our income decided at the end of the year by a committee with vague rules that weren’t clear ahead of time—especially if you met your goals but one of your teammates got sick at the end of the year?

 

[stinger78]

There are lots of ways to pick teams. There are lots of reasons to pick UGA over Alabama. We could easily set the criteria so that the loser of the championship game is out, though

But having an ad-hoc and inconsistent committee process for selecting teams with vague and subjective rules is about as bad as you can get.

If a computer model was secret and proprietary, that would also be terrible.

How would people here like it if our income decided at the end of the year by a committee with vague rules that weren’t clear ahead of time—especially if you met your goals but one of your teammates got sick at the end of the year?

What if it involved termination? You’d have a lawsuit for unlawful termination.