CFP Discussion

slugboy

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cpf2001 said:
Eh, SOS is way too out of anyone's hands. Matchups are often set years in advance for OOC games, and for conference games you have even less control over how good your opponents are in any given year. The drumbeat against the computers not being able to account for factors like that in the BCS era was constant - nobody really thought stuff like that was fair or that teams fully had their fate in their own hands. It's basically the USC/LSU scenario, where the voters got mad at the computers for favoring the SEC and Big XII strength of schedules and ignoring that OU lost it's conference championship game badly. An inverted version of this year - "three undefeated teams, computer picks two of them, one of those picked teams lost their QB in the last weeks" - would've caused people to absolutely lose their minds too if the BCS was still around.

I'm not expecting everyone to be happy with FSU getting left out (though: screw them, personally ;) ) but arguing against the idea that the BCS was good somehow is a good way to pass the time waiting for some stuff to run for work. :)
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SOS is a measuring stick, but what measurements you use is only part of being fair.
  1. The playoffs need to pick reasonable and fair goals (“the teams that achieve the most against the hardest schedule will be first in line”, for example)
  2. They need to be transparent, up front, and not subjective.
Don’t pick nits with point 1 when point 2 was a train wreck last Saturday. You’re arguing the difference between an A- vs a B+ in point 1 when point 2 is an F-minus-minus
 

cpf2001

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slugboy said:
SOS is a measuring stick, but what measurements you use is only part of being fair.
  1. The playoffs need to pick reasonable and fair goals (“the teams that achieve the most against the hardest schedule will be first in line”, for example)
  2. They need to be transparent, up front, and not subjective.
Don’t pick nits with point 1 when point 2 was a train wreck last Saturday. You’re arguing the difference between an A- vs a B+ in point 1 when point 2 is an F-minus-minus
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But I don't think the "transparent and up front" criteria was broken. Here's an article from 2014 talking about it, even, it's very old news - https://www.nfl.com/news/j-t-barrett-injury-gives-rise-to-cfp-s-selection-criteria-0ap3000000435810 - it was well known injuries would be considered, and lots of people predicted FSU was out if they struggled in their next couple of games the moment Travis got hurt.

Everyone *hating* the fact that it was applied in this way is different from it not being transparent that injuries would be considered.

Course, tOSU still got picked over their 1-loss siblings TCU and Baylor after Cardale Jones led them to a bajillion points as the replacement in their CG - one wonders how badly he would've had to look for a TCU or Baylor to make that jump, so we don't have a direct comparison, but it was discussed as a possibility then too. And if FSU's third string had looked as good as tOSU's third string did, I would be more upset too.
 
slugboy

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cpf2001 said:
But I don't think the "transparent and up front" criteria was broken. Here's an article from 2014 talking about it, even, it's very old news - https://www.nfl.com/news/j-t-barrett-injury-gives-rise-to-cfp-s-selection-criteria-0ap3000000435810 - it was well known injuries would be considered, and lots of people predicted FSU was out if they struggled in their next couple of games the moment Travis got hurt.

Everyone *hating* the fact that it was applied in this way is different from it not being transparent that injuries would be considered.

Course, tOSU still got picked over their 1-loss siblings TCU and Baylor after Cardale Jones led them to a bajillion points as the replacement in their CG - one wonders how badly he would've had to look for a TCU or Baylor to make that jump, so we don't have a direct comparison, but it was discussed as a possibility then too. And if FSU's third string had looked as good as tOSU's third string did, I would be more upset too.
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As a “tiebreaker between two equal teams”. Not what was done here.

Also, the projections were “there’s no way the SEC gets left out” and if UGA had won, then Bama and Texas would have been out. It’s a fig leaf—let’s not pretend that it’s anything other than a smoke screen.
 

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Root4GT said:
Of course the same computers put Georgia in over Alabama after they just lost to Alabama in the Conference Championship Game. Defend that logic!
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I personally have no issue with that! And I get the allure of the head-to-head result — however we all know that on any given day one team can win, the other can lose. So as it relates to picking the best I’m fully behind looking at the entirety of a season — 100%, every time.

That said, I also believe that machine analytics ought to be balanced by the human-perception as part of an overall balanced assessment — no one person, or small group or single perception should decide the final best teams
 

cpf2001

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slugboy said:
As a “tiebreaker between two equal teams”. Not what was done here.

Also, the projections were “there’s no way the SEC gets left out” and if UGA had won, then Bama and Texas would have been out. It’s a fig leaf—let’s not pretend that it’s anything other than a smoke screen.
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"Comparable" vs "equal" teams seems to be the "we're transparent about wanting to give ourselves lots of leeway" hole of choice. If you look at many of the computer metrics, it seems fair enough to call FSU comparable to Alabama and Texas without introducing human biases or intervention... and around and around we go again. Stupid SEC-loving computers? ;)

There were people very confident on this board on everything from "FSU will get screwed" to "FSU+Bama winning means no SEC team" to "UGA isn't getting left out regardless" so, well, some folks need to update their priors around how confident they are in their estimation of the motives of the committee. :)

Looking at the beauty pageant and some other notable ****shows with split titles, arguably the 2003 OU/LSU/USC was less of a beauty pageant than this one which still didn't make anyone happy, and would anyone really pick the 1990 system over the CFP?
 

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cpf2001 said:
"Comparable" vs "equal" teams seems to be the "we're transparent about wanting to give ourselves lots of leeway" hole of choice. If you look at many of the computer metrics, it seems fair enough to call FSU comparable to Alabama and Texas without introducing human biases or intervention... and around and around we go again. Stupid SEC-loving computers? ;)

There were people very confident on this board on everything from "FSU will get screwed" to "FSU+Bama winning means no SEC team" to "UGA isn't getting left out regardless" so, well, some folks need to update their priors around how confident they are in their estimation of the motives of the committee. :)

Looking at the beauty pageant and some other notable ****shows with split titles, arguably the 2003 OU/LSU/USC was less of a beauty pageant than this one which still didn't make anyone happy, and would anyone really pick the 1990 system over the CFP?
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GT may not have made the 1990 playoff. Bias has been around a long time. Committee bias is easier to see than computer bias. The bias is there for both.
 
FredJacket

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Root4GT said:
This year would have been good for an 8 team playoff.

Locking into a computer generated decision has failed in the BCS Era several times. The committee failed this time in my opinion.

None of it matters as thank God we are dumping this bad system. 4 teams based on a BCS system would still be bad.

It would be nice to have the FCS middle but that would never happen. Bowls still have TV money as they fill air time. 82 teams vs 24 teams.

FBS really doesn’t have a true champion. Just the winner of a 4 team tournament.
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What sports tournaments produce "true" champions? Did MLB this year? Does NCAA basketball or baseball? NFL wildcard wins super bowl? The best team RARELY wins. I actually like that but acknowledge it to be true.

It's a great debate... but nobody is ever happy. Frankly... for me. No league (college or pro) has the correct number of teams in playoffs. CFB is only league with too few.

The rest "allow" too many undeserving into their tournaments. Regular seasons should matter OR just have post season tournaments where every team eligible is in & last team standing is champ.
 
forensicbuzz

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Root4GT said:
GT may not have made the 1990 playoff. Bias has been around a long time. Committee bias is easier to see than computer bias. The bias is there for both.
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Both polls had Colorado #1 and GT #2 going into the Bowl Season in 1990. The Coaches' Poll recognized that you can't give the championship to a team with 1 loss when there's an undefeated team and switched #1 and #2. If there had been a single chanpionship game (BCS Championship), it would have been Colorado and GT. The Bowls still controlled too greatly who went where back then. That's also the reason we (7-4) were passed over for the Peach Bowl to uga (6-5) after we beat them head-to-head.
 

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FredJacket said:
What sports tournaments produce "true" champions? Did MLB this year? Does NCAA basketball or baseball? NFL wildcard wins super bowl? The best team RARELY wins. I actually like that but acknowledge it to be true.

It's a great debate... but nobody is ever happy. Frankly... for me. No league (college or pro) has the correct number of teams in playoffs. CFB is only league with too few.

The rest "allow" too many undeserving into their tournaments. Regular seasons should matter OR just have post season tournaments where every team eligible is in & last team standing is champ.
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Noted
 
stinger78

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forensicbuzz said:
Both polls had Colorado #1 and GT #2 going into the Bowl Season in 1990. The Coaches' Poll recognized that you can't give the championship to a team with 1 loss when there's an undefeated team and switched #1 and #2. If there had been a single chanpionship game (BCS Championship), it would have been Colorado and GT. The Bowls still controlled too greatly who went where back then. That's also the reason we (7-4) were passed over for the Peach Bowl to uga (6-5) after we beat them head-to-head.
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IIRc, they we’re already invited when we played them and them we beat them badly. I could be wring though.
 

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forensicbuzz said:
Both polls had Colorado #1 and GT #2 going into the Bowl Season in 1990. The Coaches' Poll recognized that you can't give the championship to a team with 1 loss when there's an undefeated team and switched #1 and #2. If there had been a single chanpionship game (BCS Championship), it would have been Colorado and GT. The Bowls still controlled too greatly who went where back then. That's also the reason we (7-4) were passed over for the Peach Bowl to uga (6-5) after we beat them head-to-head.
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The coaches poll is just as corrupt. The only reason we got a share of the Natty is because Tom Osbourne had the balls to put GT #1 over a team in his region. He could only do that because he was a tenured coach. If he had been knew there is no way he would have voted that way and been ostracized. You forget that under that system you either voted with the regional group or become a pariah. We won the AP by 1 vote so the coaches didn’t recognize jack squat.
 
UgaBlows

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SOWEGA Jacket said:
The coaches poll is just as corrupt. The only reason we got a share of the Natty is because Tom Osbourne had the balls to put GT #1 over a team in his region. He could only do that because he was a tenured coach. If he had been knew there is no way he would have voted that way and been ostracized. You forget that under that system you either voted with the regional group or become a pariah. We won the AP by 1 vote so the coaches didn’t recognize jack squat.
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And Nebraska hates Colorado with a passion
 

1979jacket

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cpf2001 said:
But I don't think the "transparent and up front" criteria was broken. Here's an article from 2014 tmasses alking about it, even, it's very old news - https://www.nfl.com/news/j-t-barrett-injury-gives-rise-to-cfp-s-selection-criteria-0ap3000000435810 - it was well known injuries would be considered, and lots of people predicted FSU was out if they struggled in their next couple of games the moment Travis got hurt.

Everyone *hating* the fact that it was applied in this way is different from it not being transparent that injuries would be considered.

Course, tOSU still got picked over their 1-loss siblings TCU and Baylor after Cardale Jones led them to a bajillion points as the replacement in their CG - one wonders how badly he would've had to look for a TCU or Baylor to make that jump, so we don't have a direct comparison, but it was discussed as a possibility then too. And if FSU's third string had looked as good as tOSU's third string did, I would be more upset too.
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The fact you use the word "everyone" says something. Sometimes the masses are wrong but not often and not on this one.
 
forensicbuzz

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SOWEGA Jacket said:
The coaches poll is just as corrupt. The only reason we got a share of the Natty is because Tom Osbourne had the balls to put GT #1 over a team in his region. He could only do that because he was a tenured coach. If he had been knew there is no way he would have voted that way and been ostracized. You forget that under that system you either voted with the regional group or become a pariah. We won the AP by 1 vote so the coaches didn’t recognize jack squat.
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They had us close enough that 1 vote made the difference. You also have to look at where Goff voted for us and Colorado compared to where GT voted for Colorado.
 
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