CFP Discussion

[GTLorenzo]

Please stop using that word "best;" it is insulting. The committee picked four teams to generate money is accurate. Their final selections have little or nothing to do with actual measured performance on the field of play. Maybe what you mean is the committee picked the four teams "best" suited to generate massive amounts of revenue for ESPN and incidentally each committee member's pocket.

Sure. They picked who they thought were the "best" teams right now. FSU is clearly not one of the four best teams in the country without their star QB. It was the committee's decision. Just like with was last year to pick TCU after they lost in the Big 12 conference championship. The committee wound up getting screwed when TCU made the championship game and got drilled by Uga. They weren't going to let that happen again. FSU is not a top 4 team right now without their star QB.

 

[GTLorenzo]

It’s important to keep in mind that the NCAA has no national championship for FBS. The CFP is separate from the NCAA and creates a product for sale to and distribution by ESPN.

Correct. Basically a made for tv event. I don't understand why people are so hot about it. If FSU had Travis and won ugly the last two weeks, they still get in. They don't have him, thus they are not as good as they were a month ago. They had some close calls this year, but pulled them out. A committee of former and current industry insiders looked at the current state of teams and didn't pick FSU because they aren't as good they were without their starting QB. They don't want any more blowouts if they can prevent it. Thus, Bama is in, FSU is out. There are no set criteria. So, they can do whatever they want, sort of like a football player in Athens. No one is going to punish them or send them to jail for what they do. So they do what they think is best. Sometimes they're right and sometimes they're wrong. But it is what it is.

 

[Techster]

Michigan did not seem excited AT ALL to be playing 'Bama. In fact, it seemed like someone knocked the wind out of their sail when they saw they had to play 'Bama. IMO, Michigan is probably the weakest of the 4 teams in the CFP, so 'Bama actually got the easier draw.

Unfortunately, I think 'Bama will probably win it all this year. They are finally playing high level football, and Milroe is a totally different QB than he was the beginning of the season. He's so scary. If 'Bama does win it all, I wonder if Saban rides off into the sunset.

Of course, we'll see on the field. That's why you play the games.

 

[stinger78]

Ok, no "reasonable" person would argue that Liberty, with their No. 132 strength of schedule, should be in the CFP.

And everyone keeps bringing up the Auburn game, but no one is bringing up the FSU/BC game where FSU needed a last minute 4th down stand to win by 2 against a mediocre BC team (that beat us) or the Clemson game, where a 29 yard field goal by Clemson with a minute left leads to an FSU loss. No one cares about any of that.

If Bama and FSU play right now with both teams at full strength, I think Bama wins 4 of 5. If they play with the FSU QB situation, Bama wins 5/5.

There are no real criteria. FSU is a lesser team without their star QB. It's a tv show, not the GA High School playoffs or the NFL where if you win your division or region or get a wild card, you are in. 12 people made the decision. That's it. Fairness and Auburn and gutty wins with their 3rd string QB don't matter. Ratings and hoping for close games with star players matter.

Fair enough. Then they ought not to pretend that it’s for the NC.

ETA: I mean, seriously, what do they do if FSU beats UGAg in the Orange Bowl?

 

[yeti92]

Ok, no "reasonable" person would argue that Liberty, with their No. 132 strength of schedule, should be in the CFP.

And everyone keeps bringing up the Auburn game, but no one is bringing up the FSU/BC game where FSU needed a last minute 4th down stand to win by 2 against a mediocre BC team (that beat us) or the Clemson game, where a 29 yard field goal by Clemson with a minute left leads to an FSU loss. No one cares about any of that.

If Bama and FSU play right now with both teams at full strength, I think Bama wins 4 of 5. If they play with the FSU QB situation, Bama wins 5/5.

There are no real criteria. FSU is a lesser team without their star QB. It's a tv show, not the GA High School playoffs or the NFL where if you win your division or region or get a wild card, you are in. 12 people made the decision. That's it. Fairness and Auburn and gutty wins with their 3rd string QB don't matter. Ratings and hoping for close games with star players matter.

And how are you determining "reasonable"? A secret committee? The "eye test"? I like to work with facts, not conjecture, assumptions, and predictions. I'd say that makes me pretty reasonable.

BC and Auburn are comparable teams. FSU had the lead on BC early in the 2nd quarter and never gave it up. Bama was losing to Auburn and needed a miracle to take the lead. Clemson is an 8 win team that's had double digit wins for the past decade, bringing up that game is laughable. Bama also nearly lost to 4-8 Arkansas, which is far worse than any performance by FSU this season.

You "think" Bama would beat FSU, but you have actually no idea. Milroe is not a very good qb - I certainly wouldn't trade Haynes King for him - and FSU has an extremely good defense.

 

[stinger78]

And how are you determining "reasonable"? A secret committee? The "eye test"? I like to work with facts, not conjecture, assumptions, and predictions. I'd say that makes me pretty reasonable.

BC and Auburn are comparable teams. FSU had the lead on BC early in the 2nd quarter and never gave it up. Bama was losing to Auburn and needed a miracle to take the lead. Clemson is an 8 win team that's had double digit wins for the past decade, bringing up that game is laughable. Bama also nearly lost to 4-8 Arkansas, which is far worse than any performance by FSU this season.

You "think" Bama would beat FSU, but you have actually no idea. Milroe is not a very good qb - I certainly wouldn't trade Haynes King for him - and FSU has an extremely good defense.

I keep trying to get these guys to tell me who wins so I can make more retirement $$$. They won’t open up though.

 

[GTLorenzo]

Fair enough. Then they ought not to pretend that it’s for the NC.

CFP Invitational Tournament Champions!!

 

[Thwg777]

Michigan did not seem excited AT ALL to be playing 'Bama. In fact, it seemed like someone knocked the wind out of their sail when they saw they had to play 'Bama. IMO, Michigan is probably the weakest of the 4 teams in the CFP, so 'Bama actually got the easier draw.

Unfortunately, I think 'Bama will probably win it all this year. They are finally playing high level football, and Milroe is a totally different QB than he was the beginning of the season. He's so scary. If 'Bama does win it all, I wonder if Saban rides off into the sunset.

Of course, we'll see on the field. That's why you play the games.

That’s my read too. I was shocked when I saw the opening line of Michigan -3 which was promptly bet down to a near pick’em. Perhaps recency bias on my behalf but I cannot forget Michigan ****ting the bed against TCU.

While I think there’s value in UW +4.5, I think it’ll ultimately be Texas v Bama.

 

[stinger78]

CFP Invitational Tournament Champions!!

Works for me.

 

[GTLorenzo]

And how are you determining "reasonable"? A secret committee? The "eye test"? I like to work with facts, not conjecture, assumptions, and predictions. I'd say that makes me pretty reasonable.

BC and Auburn are comparable teams. FSU had the lead on BC early in the 2nd quarter and never gave it up. Bama was losing to Auburn and needed a miracle to take the lead. Clemson is an 8 win team that's had double digit wins for the past decade, bringing up that game is laughable. Bama also nearly lost to 4-8 Arkansas, which is far worse than any performance by FSU this season.

You "think" Bama would beat FSU, but you have actually no idea. Milroe is not a very good qb - I certainly wouldn't trade Haynes King for him - and FSU has an extremely good defense.

I hear you, but there are no set criteria. So, a Committee has been selected to choose four teams for the CFP Invitational. They did that and noted that Travis' injury has made FSU a worse team, so they picked four other teams. If you want to have your own invitational tournament and select your four teams and include FSU and Liberty, that's fine. But right now, the CFP Invitational has a billion (?) dollar TV contract, so you'd be competing with that. So for now, they get to put on the tv show that they see fit. We don't have to like it, but if everyone just realizes that it isn't really a national championship playoff, then maybe they wouldn't be so emotional about it. It's an invitational tv show.

Wow. Milroe wasn't very good at the beginning of the year and that is partially why Bama lost to Texas and struggled with USF. I LOVE Haynes King and would take him over just about anyone in the country because he's tough and a Tech man. Love his interviews. But Milroe is a better QB right now than King is.

 

[FightWinDrink]

Fair enough. Then they ought not to pretend that it’s for the NC.

ETA: I mean, seriously, what do they do if FSU beats UGAg in the Orange Bowl?

FSU is dumb if the end up beating Georgia and don’t declare a split national title. As much as people laugh at UCF it’s something that exists in this sport and I think fsu would be completely justified to spin it in their favor. They’re all mythical titles anyway

 

[GTLorenzo]

FSU is dumb if the end up beating Georgia and don’t declare a split national title. As much as people laugh at UCF it’s something that exists in this sport and I think fsu would be completely justified to spin it in their favor. They’re all mythical titles anyway

I would sell t-shirts and hats saying "The People's Champions" all day long. UCF doing that was kind of funny, but probably helped them get more recognition and get into the Big 12.

 

[TooTall]

That’s my read too. I was shocked when I saw the opening line of Michigan -3 which was promptly bet down to a near pick’em. Perhaps recency bias on my behalf but I cannot forget Michigan ****ting the bed against TCU.

While I think there’s value in UW +4.5, I think it’ll ultimately be Texas v Bama.

I think it was more shock that the committee left F$U out than them having to play bammer. But you know the $EC is better narrative is in full drive right now. Anything less than a bama championship hurt the committee's choice.

 

[slugboy]

I hear you, but there are no set criteria. So, a Committee has been selected to choose four teams for the CFP Invitational. They did that and noted that Travis' injury has made FSU a worse team, so they picked four other teams. If you want to have your own invitational tournament and select your four teams and include FSU and Liberty, that's fine. But right now, the CFP Invitational has a billion (?) dollar TV contract, so you'd be competing with that. So for now, they get to put on the tv show that they see fit. We don't have to like it, but if everyone just realizes that it isn't really a national championship playoff, then maybe they wouldn't be so emotional about it. It's an invitational tv show.

Wow. Milroe wasn't very good at the beginning of the year and that is partially why Bama lost to Texas and struggled with USF. I LOVE Haynes King and would take him over just about anyone in the country because he's tough and a Tech man. Love his interview. But Milroe is a better QB right now than King is.

First, I'd like to second RamblinRed's hat tip to the people who said "no way is the SEC getting left out". You were proven right.

Second, it's clear that there are no strong CFP committee criteria--or if there are, they're secret. It is just a big TV show and not a playoff.

Third, the only "four best teams" that make sense for this is "the four teams that the CFP committee and their sponsors wanted most", and that doesn't make a ton of sense. There are some economic/psychological behaviors that got famous with Kahneman and Tversky where decision making was illogical--for example, given a choice of two foods, someone would prefer hamburgers over pizza, pizza over spaghetti, but spaghetti over hamburgers (i.e. their favorite choice depends on what options you give them, not on a real ordered set of what they like). That happened in this selection--if UGA wins, the four teams would almost certainly be UGA, MICH, Washington, and FSU. Since UGA lost, and Texas has the win over BAMA, then the logical order is MICH, WASH, FSU, Texas, but that leaves out the SEC, and there's obviously a secret "the SEC gets a seat" rule. That bumps out the lowest remaining seed--FSU.

The frustration is that FSU was more deserving. If you're picking by SOS, there are teams that are better than BAMA. If you're picking by how you **did** against a strong strength of schedule, FSU is in the top 4--yes, they're much better than BAMA by their resume.

If you're picking the four best teams, it's UGA, Oregon, Ohio State, and Michigan. (@Techster I think Michigan is a better team than BAMA. Maybe Saban can prep a team better for one game than most other coaches, but Michigan isn't the weakest team in the CF(sic)P )

The frustration is that there are a lot of ways you can see knocking FSU out of the CF(sic)P, but none of the rational views of "best team" put Alabama in--what you've accomplished (resume) puts FSU in. Best four teams doesn't put either team in. You can find something that Alabama is better at than FSU, but there will be four teams better in that measure than Alabama.

The most logical reason is "the SEC has a guaranteed space in the CFP unless their representative has at least two losses".

 

[Thwg777]

I think it was more shock that the committee left F$U out than them having to play bammer. But you know the $EC is better narrative is in full drive right now. Anything less than a bama championship hurt the committee's choice.

Shock is not a word I’d use to describe FSU getting screwed over the SEC.

Just like shock is not a word I’d use when we discovered the number 1 team is cheating.

Nor was I shocked when nothing happened to last year’s champion despite literal death following their win.

 

[UgaBlows]

FSU didn't belong. They are not currently one of the 4 best teams in the country.

By that logic one could argue that uga is a better and more talented team than Michigan and Washington

 

[GTLorenzo]

First, I'd like to second RamblinRed's hat tip to the people who said "no way is the SEC getting left out". You were proven right.

Second, it's clear that there are no strong CFP committee criteria--or if there are, they're secret. It is just a big TV show and not a playoff.

Third, the only "four best teams" that make sense for this is "the four teams that the CFP committee and their sponsors wanted most", and that doesn't make a ton of sense. There are some economic/psychological behaviors that got famous with Kahneman and Tversky where decision making was illogical--for example, given a choice of two foods, someone would prefer hamburgers over pizza, pizza over spaghetti, but spaghetti over pizza. That happened in this selection--if UGA wins, the four teams would almost certainly be UGA, MICH, Washington, and FSU. Since UGA lost, and Texas has the win over BAMA, then the logical order is MICH, WASH, FSU, Texas, but that leaves out the SEC, and there's obviously a secret "the SEC gets a seat" rule. That bumps out the lowest remaining seed--FSU.

The frustration is that FSU was more deserving. If you're picking by SOS, there are teams that are better than BAMA. If you're picking by how you **did** against a strong strength of schedule, FSU is in the top 4--yes, they're much better than BAMA by their resume.

If you're picking the four best teams, it's UGA, Oregon, Ohio State, and Michigan. (@Techster I think Michigan is a better team than BAMA. Maybe Saban can prep a team better for one game than most other coaches, but Michigan isn't the weakest team in the CF(sic)P )

The frustration is that there are a lot of ways you can see knocking FSU out of the CF(sic)P, but none of the rational views of "best team" put Alabama in--what you've accomplished (resume) puts FSU in. Best four teams doesn't put either team in. You can find something that Alabama is better at than FSU, but there will be four teams better in that measure than Alabama.

The most logical reason is "the SEC has a guaranteed space in the CFP unless their representative has at least two losses".

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But what you are not considering is the fact that the current day FSU team is not the same as the FSU team that won the first 10 games of the year and got to that No. 4 ranking. Without considering that, you are likely correct. But, you have to consider that. THAT is why they didn't get in. If Travis is healthy and Bama beats Uga, FSU is in and Bama is out. But he's hurt. That's what I think most people aren't getting. The same thing happens in the NCAA hoops brackets. They will drop a team down in the seeding if they have a hurt player. The only variance is that they still get in and have a change to compete. Here, there are only 4 teams, so there is less margin for error. An upset in March is "fun" and "exciting." A 24-3 game or 35-10 games with Michigan beating FSU is not exciting when there are only two semi games.

 

[GTLorenzo]

By that logic one could argue that uga is a better and more talented team than Michigan and Washington

Sure you could. They lost at the wrong time for them. And, despite winning 29 games in a row, they weren't great this year. I don't think any of the top 6 or 7 are great and any (with their team at full strength) could likely beat any of the others. So yes, you could argue that, but the committee said that FSU is not at full strength, so they weren't picked. That simple.

 

[slugboy]

But what you are not considering is the fact that the current day FSU team is not the same as the FSU team that won the first 10 games of the year and got to that No. 4 ranking. Without considering that, you are likely correct. But, you have to consider that. THAT is why they didn't get in. If Travis is healthy and Bama beats Uga, FSU is in and Bama is out. But he's hurt. That's what I think most people aren't getting. The same thing happens in the NCAA hoops brackets. They will drop a team down in the seeding if they have a hurt player. The only variance is that they still get in and have a change to compete. Here, there are only 4 teams, so there is less margin for error. An upset in March is "fun" and "exciting." A 24-3 game or 35-10 games with Michigan beating FSU is not exciting when there are only two semi games.

That's not the reason--that's the excuse, or the PR.

If Michigan's QB was out and they still beat Ohio State, would they be in? (yes).

More analysis, by someone else:

 

[stingerman]

Michigan did not seem excited AT ALL to be playing 'Bama. In fact, it seemed like someone knocked the wind out of their sail when they saw they had to play 'Bama. IMO, Michigan is probably the weakest of the 4 teams in the CFP, so 'Bama actually got the easier draw.

Unfortunately, I think 'Bama will probably win it all this year. They are finally playing high level football, and Milroe is a totally different QB than he was the beginning of the season. He's so scary. If 'Bama does win it all, I wonder if Saban rides off into the sunset.

Of course, we'll see on the field. That's why you play the games.

Don’t forget, we’re only like 10 days removed from the Auburn game.