CFP Discussion

[slugboy]

First, thanks for sharing the CPI poll. It appears to take the same basic approach as Colley but limits the computation to two orders (opponents opponents), whereas Colley uses a matrix method to include all opponents (I think - but his math is over my head). Not surprising that the results are similar at this stage of the season.

Your last point is significant. These polls don't attempt to rank the best team - they rank who is having the better season. One can be computed, the other is more subjective. I think that point may have been missed by some posters.

They have a different definition of “best”. Maybe there’s a third point of view, but models usually fall on the spectrum of “resume” (what have you accomplished) vs predictive (how likely are you to win and score way more points than the other team).

For the polls, they usually fall somewhere in between, where being ranked #1 is some combination of “we think you’re likely to beat anyone” vs “they had the best record”.

For JMU, you can argue that they’ve accomplished more than UGA this season. That’s what the Colley matrix says. It’s an **resume** system. Even the guy who wrote that system probably wouldn’t bet on them against UGA. It starts out with everyone the same because everyone starts at zero for a new season—ain’t nobody done nothing yet. Everybody is equal in resume at the start of the season, because you don’t count last season’s games.

For predictive models, they do start with a seed or starting point, because they want to guess what the score is going to be for any game, including the first one.

Both types are only getting to be decent statistically now.

 

[stinger 1957]

That system has no way to account for injuries to key players until a game or two are played without them. There are always factors that cannot be included accurately in any algorithm. I would put more into the Vegas odds since so much money is involved and they aren't perfect either. They just have to be right more times than they are wrong.

They don't even do that, they balance the books and get the "juice". Ain't hard to do if they just pay attention and move the line as needed.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

Yes, the expanded playoffs will fix a lot of this crap from the past 100 years of corruption. Once we get to the 20’s and above in playoff teams then the champ will be legit. Our grandkids will look back on the history of college football and totally dismiss everything before a real playoff was started. Just like all these BS “claimed Natties” from previous decades are dismissed by my generation.

Even if it will still be a rigged system with only 12 teams, because we all know the committee will always side with the schools who give them the proper bennies, at least we won’t have to worry about top teams being left out because they had 1 loss. And then you’ll see how many upsets happen every year which will show how flawed the “polling” system has always been.

I agree, but don’t think anyone should have a bye. 8, 16, 24 or whatever.

 

[TooTall]

With Bowers out, UF could beat the mutts. UT could beat the mutts. $EC West champ will beat the mutts.

Honest question, if you're Bowers, do you try to suit up again in a month, or get 100% and do the combine? He's the best best TE in the country and should be the mutts first drafted player. He's been battling a groin injury along the way as well.

As a former athlete I want my best to beat your best. Hate when any player goes down, even (hard gulp) a mutt.

 

[slugboy]

With Bowers out, UF could beat the mutts. UT could beat the mutts. $EC West champ will beat the mutts.

Honest question, if you're Bowers, do you try to suit up again in a month, or get 100% and do the combine? He's the best best TE in the country and should be the mutts first drafted player. He's been battling a groin injury along the way as well.

As a former athlete I want my best to beat your best. Hate when any player goes down, even (hard gulp) a mutt.

He’s at least a second-rounder. Maybe a first, if the Falcons want a second tight end (their draft strategy baffles me).

 

[yeti92]

As a former athlete I want my best to beat your best. Hate when any player goes down, even (hard gulp) a mutt.

Ehh, at this point I want a win over the mutts any way we can get it. With the size of the talent gap between our two teams, they should be able to more than afford to be down a few players. It's not like the mutts haven't deliberately tried to injure some of our best in games before too. And at the end of the day no asterisk goes in the record book because one player or another was out, a win is a win and a loss is a loss.

 

[slugboy]

Here’s a different resume system—it’s Kelly Ford’s “most deserving”. It’s not a prediction—it’s who has played the best against their schedule

And here’s the weekly progression (you can see “week 0”, where only the teams that played an early game got rated)

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Here’s a different resume system—it’s Kelly Ford’s “most deserving”. It’s not a prediction—it’s who has played the best against their schedule

And here’s the weekly progression (you can see “week 0”, where only the teams that played an early game got rated)

Overall, this “who has played the best” matches up with my gut instincts about these teams. But the SEC bias still looms large. Alabama and Ole Miss and LSU seems to all have higher rankings based on this bias. Not to contradict what I’ve said earlier but uga has actually played quite well, for the most part, even though their schedule is weak, and I would rank them higher than this list does. Likewise, I think Miami and Louisville suffer from being in the ACC but I could see them being competitive against most of the SEC teams ranked higher than them.

 

[CEB]

I agree, but don’t think anyone should have a bye. 8, 16, 24 or whatever.

Agree, but at least their (current) plan is to give the byes to Conference champions, not the arbitrarily ranked 1-4 teams.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Agree, but at least their (current) plan is to give the byes to Conference champions, not the arbitrarily ranked 1-4 teams.

If you expand playoffs beyond 6 teams there is no reason for byes. Just seed like you would normally.

 

[orientalnc]

If you expand playoffs beyond 6 teams there is no reason for byes. Just seed like you would normally.

I agree with you, but with 12 the byes are locked in. And, as @CEB posted, it's the four highest ranked conference champions that get the byes. If teams 9-12 really have a chance to win, the CFP is using the wrong models to pick teams. It would take three consecutive upsets for one of them to win the championship.

 

[CEB]

If you expand playoffs beyond 6 teams there is no reason for byes. Just seed like you would normally.

Agreed. I don’t know why 12 became the number. I guess they were trying to preserve the value of being a conference champion, which I don’t completely disagree with. However, the big argument against this for so long was that it made the season too long. A 16 team playoff takes just as many weeks as the 12 team playoffs. They should go ahead and do it now.

 

[orientalnc]

Agreed. I don’t know why 12 became the number. I guess they were trying to preserve the value of being a conference champion, which I don’t completely disagree with. However, the big argument against this for so long was that it made the season too long. A 16 team playoff takes just as many weeks as the 12 team playoffs. They should go ahead and do it now.

Or, cut it to eight. But no one takes money off the table.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I agree with you, but with 12 the byes are locked in. And, as @CEB posted, it's the four highest ranked conference champions that get the byes. If teams 9-12 really have a chance to win, the CFP is using the wrong models to pick teams. It would take three consecutive upsets for one of them to win the championship.

Yep. Under that model a lower ranked team can only add drama by spoiling some team’s national run but has no real chance of winning it all.


Unless they ran the wishbone
*just stirring the pot for old times sake

 

[CEB]

Yep. Under that model a lower ranked team can only add drama by spoiling some team’s national run but has no real chance of winning it all.


Unless they ran the wishbone
*just stirring the pot for old times sake

 

[TampaBuzz]

Or, cut it to eight. But no one takes money off the table.

Yep....8 national conferences with an equal number of teams. Then take the conference champs and let them fight it out. No byes. If you don't win your conference, you are out.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

Dang, didn’t realize Air Force was undefeated. Another underdog to root for.

 

[ibeattetris]

Dang, didn’t realize Air Force was undefeated. Another underdog to root for.

Undefeated and the offense is absolutely humming. Only four teams left averaging over four points per drive, and they are one of them. According to espn FPI though, their strength of schedule is ranked 130th and the remaining team SOS 96. They sadly will not realistically play anyone of substance until their bowl game.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

Undefeated and the offense is absolutely humming. Only four teams left averaging over four points per drive, and they are one of them. According to espn FPI though, their strength of schedule is ranked 130th and the remaining team SOS 96. They sadly will not realistically play anyone of substance until their bowl game.

But the 3O has no place in college football!

 

[Northeast Stinger]

https://apple.news/AXXzb4nPmSNGOw5zQCyrhtw