CFP Discussion

FredJacket

FredJacket

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orientalnc said:
Agreed. Also, ND is no longer being considered. Nor will Texas have a clear path to the CFP. And, given the trouble USC is having on defense, I cannot see them sliding through the PAC schedule unscathed.
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Both Texas & Oklahoma will be heavy favorites in their remaining games. The winner of the likely rematch in the B12 championship will be in playoffs.

It does seem the P12 is most likely to beat each other out of the playoff. Not a certainty though. Still 3 quality P12 teams unbeaten.
 
orientalnc

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FredJacket said:
Both Texas & Oklahoma will be heavy favorites in their remaining games. The winner of the likely rematch in the B12 championship will be in playoffs.

It does seem the P12 is most likely to beat each other out of the playoff. Not a certainty though. Still 3 quality P12 teams unbeaten.
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Unbeaten in conference games. I think Texas just eliminated themselves from the B12CG. The B12 tiebreaker rules are complicated, but Texas needs help. A disaster for the B12 would be for OU to play a two loss WVU in the CG and lose.
 
FredJacket

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orientalnc said:
Unbeaten in conference games. I think Texas just eliminated themselves from the B12CG. The B12 tiebreaker rules are complicated, but Texas needs help. A disaster for the B12 would be for OU to play a two loss WVU in the CG and lose.
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2nd part of my post was Pac12 (not Big12). USC WASH & ORE all undefeated now... all do play each other too.

Agree on your Big12 comments except I think Texas will get the help.
 
slugboy

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This isn’t official, but I’ve seen a few people agree with it. Several ACC teams up there:

 

Oldgoldandwhite

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What happens if LSU wins the West and the SEC with two losses. Do they get in over the pups? If USC wins the PAC, I think they are left out again. Louisville shot themselves in the foot. 4 out of BIG, ACC, SEC, and OU? Still think the BIG may get 2 in.
 
orientalnc

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Oldgoldandwhite said:
What happens if LSU wins the West and the SEC with two losses. Do they get in over the pups? If USC wins the PAC, I think they are left out again. Louisville shot themselves in the foot. 4 out of BIG, ACC, SEC, and OU? Still think the BIG may get 2 in.
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I still believe the SEC West champ will be Alabama. Bama has to lose twice for Ole Miss to win. If Bama beats LSU they are almost certain to be the champ and get to play uga for CFP berth.

FSU and UNC now look like the class of the conference. The flaw in that view may be that Miami was never as good as we thought. So the win in Chapel Hill may not be as impressive as beating #25 would normally be. UNC still has to play Clemson and I don't see that as a certain win for the Heels.

The B1G gets interesting next weekend when Penn State visits Columbus. The loser there has to hope for a three way tie and help with tiebreakers.

The PAC-12 is going out with a blaze of glory this year. It is still wide open as to which teams might play for their CFP berth. I still feel they could play themselves out of the playoffs with a two loss champ. It could be a wild "tiebreaker" finish out west.

Texas is not out of the CFP just yet. They will likely be the OU opponent in the championship game. Neither is likely to lose from here out.

The only prediction I feel 100% confident about is that no one in the G5 will be in the CFP.

It will also be interesting to see if the CFP committee uses the "12-team rules" for picking the four teams this year. Conference championship is the #1 criteria. If they use that measure, we won't have two B1G teams.
 
Southern psu fan

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orientalnc said:
I still believe the SEC West champ will be Alabama. Bama has to lose twice for Ole Miss to win. If Bama beats LSU they are almost certain to be the champ and get to play uga for CFP berth.

FSU and UNC now look like the class of the conference. The flaw in that view may be that Miami was never as good as we thought. So the win in Chapel Hill may not be as impressive as beating #25 would normally be. UNC still has to play Clemson and I don't see that as a certain win for the Heels.

The B1G gets interesting next weekend when Penn State visits Columbus. The loser there has to hope for a three way tie and help with tiebreakers.

The PAC-12 is going out with a blaze of glory this year. It is still wide open as to which teams might play for their CFP berth. I still feel they could play themselves out of the playoffs with a two loss champ. It could be a wild "tiebreaker" finish out west.

Texas is not out of the CFP just yet. They will likely be the OU opponent in the championship game. Neither is likely to lose from here out.

The only prediction I feel 100% confident about is that no one in the G5 will be in the CFP.

It will also be interesting to see if the CFP committee uses the "12-team rules" for picking the four teams this year. Conference championship is the #1 criteria. If they use that measure, we won't have two B1G teams.
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After the last 2 years the big 10 doesn’t deserve 2 teams. When it’s just 4 teams it should always be conference champs getting in the playoffs. If a team like Ohio St or Alabama is sitting home watching the conference championship games on tv that’s means they didn’t get it done on the field and it’s their own fault. Reward teams for losing is a complete joke. As the great Weyman Sellers use to say… there is no excuse!
 

yeti92

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orientalnc said:
This game raises a huge question mark about the PAC12 overall quality. ND's defense made life miserable for USC.
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Ehh, nobody USC had played to date is particularly good, and their defense was already suspect. That being said, they actually outgained ND in yards, but lost the turnover battle 5-0 which is nearly impossible to overcome.

Oregon and Washington look like the best of the PAC12 and everyone else is below them. Unfortunately all their OOC games were against not good teams, so we may not really have an idea until the post season. I'm not sure what the PAC's best OOC win is at this point, UF?
 

Root4GT

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yeti92 said:
Ehh, nobody USC had played to date is particularly good, and their defense was already suspect. That being said, they actually outgained ND in yards, but lost the turnover battle 5-0 which is nearly impossible to overcome.

Oregon and Washington look like the best of the PAC12 and everyone else is below them. Unfortunately all their OOC games were against not good teams, so we may not really have an idea until the post season. I'm not sure what the PAC's best OOC win is at this point, UF?
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The Oregon - Washington game yesterday was a great college football game
 
slugboy

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The AP top 25 isn’t out yet, and the CFP rankings don’t come out until October 31.

The AP does a nice job of writing up the CFP and Heisman race here.

At Oregon, Dan Lanning was bold and lost. He often made the calls the analytics point to. Coaches get more criticism for being bold than being meek (which may be why the NFL is so boring to some of us, despite the best of the best athletes). Thank you Dan Lanning for coaching football that’s fun to watch.

Drake Maye at UNC is a long shot in the Heisman race, and Van Dyke is out of it. The Heisman is won in big moments, and Van Dyke’s Heisman moments didn’t materialize.

I feel safe saying Miami and Kentucky are going to fall out of the top 25, and Missouri is going to make their way in, and Notre Dame will be moving up.

The ACC is down to two undefeated teams, and we get a shot at one of them.

UGA finishes the season with Florida (not good), then (probably ranked) Missouri, #13 Ole Miss, #19 Tennessee, then GT. The odds should be in their favor to finish undefeated, but there’s a CHANCE.
 
orientalnc

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slugboy said:
UGA finishes the season with Florida (not good), then (probably ranked) Missouri, #13 Ole Miss, #19 Tennessee, then GT. The odds should be in their favor to finish undefeated, but there’s a CHANCE.
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They have an off week for Bowers to heal, but these games could be interesting without him. The MRI will show if there's a tear. If so it will take several weeks to heal.
 
FredJacket

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It's all relative, but UGA is vulnerable "enough" that I believe there's a decent chance they lose a regular season game. It's more likely than not the SEC champ gets in the playoff field. But if I were picking a P5 conference to be left out... I'd put them in this order (from most likely left out to least likely left out)
1) Pac12
2a) SEC
2b) ACC
2c) Big12
3) Big10

Gonna be fun. Can't predict the wacky upset (like Iowa winning the Big10) ... but something wacky will happen & if history is any predictor, in some weird twisted way, it'll benefit the SEC. 🙄
 
roadkill

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Just posted this in the Stat/Rankings thread but thought it may be useful in this discussion.
After week 7, Colley's (https://www.colleyrankings.com/currank.html) is starting to converge on a fairly decent alignment with the AP for the top 8 teams. This poll is not predictive but it tends to have very good agreement with the AP by the end of the season.

There is some notable divergence for a few teams that traditionally get the benefit of the doubt in the AP and Coaches. :rolleyes:

TeamColley Rank (W-L only)AP Rank
Oklahoma16
Washington25
Michigan32
Florida St44
Ohio St53
North Carolina610
Penn St77
Texas88
James Madison926
Iowa1024
Georgie141
GT66NR
 
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