CFP Discussion

[Root4GT]

You made two points:
1. Polls should not be to create interest. That’s a byproduct. They should be to generate a true picture. That cannot be done a priori.
2. Accurate for a couple of teams doesn’t make them accurate. You will not win any wager espousing the accuracy of preseason polls. (Of course, the devil is in the standard of accuracy).

You are forgetting the point of preseason polls - MONEY! They do that well. They have for ever in college football and always will. Trying to minimize them is like charging windmills! It will only get you frustrated and the business side of college football, which is the most important side, will get a good laugh. Money rules as always.

Now for all those wanting the magic algorithm to solve the rankings they should all start with every FBS at the same spot. They assuredly do not and are no better than the voters as a result.

 

[stinger78]

You are forgetting the point of preseason polls - MONEY! They do that well. They have for ever in college football and always will. Trying to minimize them is like charging windmills! It will only get you frustrated and the business side of college football, which is the most important side, will get a good laugh. Money rules as always.

Now for all those wanting the magic algorithm to solve the rankings they should all start with every FBS at the same spot. They assuredly do not and are no better than the voters as a result.

No I’m not. You’re forgetting my premise that truth is what we’re after in rankings, not a marketing plan.

 

[Root4GT]

No I’m not. You’re forgetting my premise that truth is what we’re after in rankings, not a marketing plan.

Define "we." Manny fans want to see their team ranked high in the polls and are very happy with how the system works as the teams that have the huge fan bases are generally ranked high in preseason polls as well as polls throughout the season regardless of performance. They do get the benefit of the doubt. College football does not lend itself to a true National Champion. A 12 team playoff os better than a 2 or 4 team playoff but is still subject to the bias in any system used to pick the 12 teams.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

Michigan and Alabama were in the top 4

But we don’t really know. We base it on what we think we know. If both played the exact same schedule, then we could compare.

 

[Root4GT]

But we don’t really know. We base it on what we think we know. If both played the exact same schedule, then we could compare.

I totally agree and have said many times there is no good way to compare college teams! Voters, experts, computers all can't do a good job as you point out teams don't play similar schedules. Even in conferences they are so large now teams don't play similar schedules. It's all opinion of some sort!

My point was the preseason Polls were as good as any other measure for picking the top teams even though they are very biased!

 

[bobongo]

People have criticized FSU's SOS, I have responded that #55, while not great, is still not bad. I would submit that there is very little difference between #30 and about #75.

There are various SOS rankings. This one has FSU at SOS #16. Liberty is #119:

NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings

NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings from TeamRankings.com, your source for NCAAF computer power rankings.

www.teamrankings.com

 

[dressedcheeseside]

No, Liberty's schedule is near the bottom of the FBS. SOS has to part of the calculation, because it's an intrinsic part of your record. Obviously, a win over Alabama is more important than a win over Akron or somebody. Few would argue otherwise. But not when you played, injuries, weather, referees, or any other consideration.

Strength of schedule is just as subjective as the rankings because it’s based on the rankings.

 

[slugboy]

Strength of schedule is just as subjective as the rankings because it’s based on the rankings.

There are strength of schedule ratings that are set entirely during the season with no association with subjective rankings.

SOS is the wrong thing to focus on. FSU’s resume (accomplishments) was better. Alabama had a somewhat harder schedule, but part they also lost. Arizona State might have had the strongest strength of schedule—that doesn’t put them in the conversation.

If Alabama and FSU both had the same record, using strength of schedule as a tiebreaker makes sense.

ESPN has brought back their resume index, and it ranks FSU ahead of Alabama

2023 Resume College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2023 Resume College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance of the season.

www.espn.com

 

[FredJacket]

Others have said this... but when 2 teams are undefeated, the better team can certainly be the one with an easier schedule.

SoS becomes more relevant (but still highly subjective) when losses are introduced.

 

[bobongo]

Strength of schedule is just as subjective as the rankings because it’s based on the rankings.

I guess, but concerning Liberty one can take a look at their opponents and readily see how soft the schedule is:

Liberty Flames 2024 Regular Season NCAAF Schedule - ESPN

ESPN has the full 2024 Liberty Flames Regular Season NCAAF schedule. Includes game times, TV listings and ticket information for all Flames games.

www.espn.com

At least a dozen teams could easily go 13-0 against that slate.

 

[FredJacket]

I guess, but concerning Liberty one can take a look at their opponents and readily see how soft the schedule is:

Liberty Flames 2024 Regular Season NCAAF Schedule - ESPN

ESPN has the full 2024 Liberty Flames Regular Season NCAAF schedule. Includes game times, TV listings and ticket information for all Flames games.

www.espn.com

At least a dozen teams could easily go 13-0 against that slate.

Ok. That informs us about their schedule/opponents.... it doesn't tell us how good (or bad) Liberty is [without more something]

 

[Root4GT]

I guess, but concerning Liberty one can take a look at their opponents and readily see how soft the schedule is:

Liberty Flames 2024 Regular Season NCAAF Schedule - ESPN

ESPN has the full 2024 Liberty Flames Regular Season NCAAF schedule. Includes game times, TV listings and ticket information for all Flames games.

www.espn.com

At least a dozen teams could easily go 13-0 against that slate.

Neither GT or Auburn could go undefeated against that schedule

 

[bobongo]

Neither GT or Auburn could go undefeated against that schedule

True, since the Jackets couldn't get by Bowling Green (Tech was too wildly inconsistent to get through most any schedule unscathed) and Auburn got roasted by New Mexico. But there are plenty that could.

 

[bobongo]

Ok. That informs us about their schedule/opponents.... it doesn't tell us how good (or bad) Liberty is [without more something]

That's just the problem - they haven't proven anything much one way or another, because they haven't played anybody of consequence.

 

[Root4GT]

True, since the Jackets couldn't get by Bowling Green (Tech was too wildly inconsistent to get through most any schedule unscathed) and Auburn got roasted by New Mexico. But there are plenty that could.

Pure speculation. Of course no one will ever know. That’s college football. Schedules do matter and none are identical.

 

[stech81]

Strength of schedule is just as subjective as the rankings because it’s based on the rankings.

very true plus the polls always put 5 to 5 ESC teams in the top 25 along with ND every year.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

very true plus the polls always put 5 to 5 ESC teams in the top 25 along with ND every year.

I’m aware that some of us keep saying the same thing over and over but it’s indicative of how frustrating the process is for determining the top teams. In theory I suppose you could not do any team rankings until, say, after everyone has played at least 3 games. Then you could let a computer do the ranking. The computer could then do rankings for the next 4 games. After that you could have the pollsters take over until the end of the season but keep the computer rankings going beside teams in parentheses. Then the playoff committee could make their decision either using the poll rankings for a team or the computer rankings, mixing and matching, as it were, as seems appropriate. So, for instance, if the computer ranks an undefeated Liberty higher than a one loss Oklahoma, the committee could have the final say based on clearly stated criteria and a transparent process. This year I have no doubt this process would have put uga in the top five but I do not believe they could have camped out in the #1 spot all season. How different that would have made Alabama’s win over them.

 

[stinger78]

Define "we." Manny fans want to see their team ranked high in the polls and are very happy with how the system works as the teams that have the huge fan bases are generally ranked high in preseason polls as well as polls throughout the season regardless of performance. They do get the benefit of the doubt. College football does not lend itself to a true National Champion. A 12 team playoff os better than a 2 or 4 team playoff but is still subject to the bias in any system used to pick the 12 teams.

Who’s Manny?

Of course, those who benefit from preseason rankings enjoy it. The “we” in my statement are those who resist The Narrative and how it is built. Preseason rankings are one part of the enterprise of over rating a conference.

 

[Vespidae]

Who’s Manny?

Of course, those who benefit from preseason rankings enjoy it. The “we” in my statement are those who resist The Narrative and how it is built. Preseason rankings are one part of the enterprise of over rating a conference.

What Narrative? The AP Poll was created in 1936 by writers to … sell newspapers. There’s no criteria. Sixty-ish writers rank their picks and that’s it. Bowls later jockeyed to create matchups that could make a case and crown the king.

Now, it’s a new series of polls but instead of newspapers, it’s media. Who watches the most games? State land grant schools. So it’s the 80-20 rule in practice … promote the biggest schools with the most viewership and … the big get bigger.

I like the idea of modifying the poll significantly but … it’s there because it gins interest.

 

[orientalnc]

I understand the criticism aimed at the polls. Especially the preseason polls. What I find odd is the indignancy aimed at the pollsters with whom we disagree. I doubt our votes, while certainly different, would more accurately reflect a ranking that deserves publication. The AP and Coaches polls are made up of people with a lot more information about the teams than any of us possess. I know, if we disagree it's because those pollsters are biased or worse. On the basketball side, Rothstein and Goodman see triple the number of games I see. And I am, at times, obsessive about basketball. Their votes would be based on a lot more knowledge of the teams tthan would mine.

I believe FSU should have been in the CFP because they won all their games and played in one of the top conferences. Texas and Alabama also played in top conferences, but they did not win all their games. I think the top teams have to lose on the field before they're eliminated from the championship playoff. Votes, even from the most knowledgeable people, should not be enough.

Now, the questionn of whether I think FSU was actually better than Bama or Texas is different. That is what the CFP selection committee said was the deciding factor. I do not think polling was a factor except that all the teams being considered were in the top group.