IMO, ND will circle the wagons and give us their best effort at home. I am sure Brian Kelly is pointing to OSU last year and saying we can do the same thing this year. Do not forget UVA's Scott Stadium is--for whatever reason--a difficult venue to get a win in. Not just for us historically but for all teams.
When asked how he approached the game with the new QB, Kelly said they just tried to play to his strengths, and that one of his strengths is pushing the ball down the field. It is only one data point, but the touchdown pass he threw was a long ball that could not have been more accurate. His confidence will be soaring after that, and it will be very different this week as he prepares all week as the #1 QB. Further, they will tailor what they do this week to his strengths. He was a highly recruited dual threat guy, the arm is good, and he has a good OL and WRs to work with.
Can he be mature enough to not try and do too and just manage the game? We'll see. He may have more nerves playing at home, and he may get anxious and push if we keep the ball away from them for long stretches of time.
I believe Kelly will try and establish enough of a running game to take advantage of his QB's downfield throwing ability. In turn the play action passing game if successful will support the run offense. Don't be surprised to see ND go deep early and often. ND has some dangerous, experienced receivers with wheels. I'm sure they'll have seen Tulane's long TD pass.
Will Kelly run this new QB knowing he hasn't much QB depth? It didn't stop Urban running 12 Gauge a bunch. However, QB runs are more of OSU's offensive identity than ND's. We'll see.
This will pose an interesting match up with who Ted Roof is as a coordinator. Ted sells out to stop the run and is happy to let teams rack up passing yardage between the 20's while waiting for drive-ending sacks, holds, drops, bad throws, INTs, and fumbles. Ideally he gets you in third and long by stopping your runs then blitzes you. Passing is inherently a lower percentage proposition than running. We need to tackle well in the run game and protect against the deep ball.
Defensively ND appears to have a good run defense. They have some huge bodies on the defensive line, more size, and that size can run too. UVA did almost all their damage through the air and was stuffed on the ground. This will be a good test for our offense. Their D will be fired up at home and we need come in with a purpose and execute. Their goal will be to stop our run game without selling out to do so. Either that, or they'll have to pray that Justin has an off day throwing b/c he will carve them up if they have to sell out to stop the run.
This is a very winnable game for us if we can stay focused, do what we do, and don't let the environment get to us. Guys need to just work hard in practice and continue to get better. Then come out, do what we do, and like last year never give up.
I'll be interested to see what Vegas says about this game. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pick 'em or be slight favorites.
