Caesars Over/Under Win Totals for 2020

[Augusta_Jacket]

Let's say hypothetically we improve from 'pretty damn bad' to 'mediocre'.

Ok.

12 games

• (2) - Clemson and Georgia are winning 9 times out of 10 against mediocre
• (1) - Let's call the FCS game a win (don't go there)
• (9) - That leaves 9 games as toss-up. Odds would say we win 4.5.

That gets us to 5.5 wins.

I'm generously throwing ND in the last category. If you put them in the first group, we're back to 4.5 wins.

How big is the leap for us to become mediocre, with half of our practices disintegrating between year 1 and year 2?

I think you have more than three tiers.

1. Clemson & uga
2. Notre Dame, UVA, VT
3. UNC, Pitt, UCF, Miami
4. Syracuse, Duke
5. Gardner Webb

I don't think we beat anyone in Tiers 1 & 2. Thats an automatic 5 losses. I placed UCF in Tier 3, but they could be a Tier 2 team this year. Either way, Tier 3 and 4 are toss ups with Tier 4 being the wins I am counting on. If we get lucky with the Tier 3 teams, we win between 4-6 games, which I think is the ceiling for this year. I can see 3, but can also see 6 if EVERYTHING breaks our way.

That being said, I think the real thing we need to see this year is competence. We had almost none last year on offense. I think our losses will look a lot better this year, and I think that's the improvement we need to be looking for.

 

[CuseJacket]

I think you have more than three tiers.

1. Clemson & uga
2. Notre Dame, UVA, VT
3. UNC, Pitt, UCF, Miami
4. Syracuse, Duke
5. Gardner Webb

I don't think we beat anyone in Tiers 1 & 2. Thats an automatic 5 losses. I placed UCF in Tier 3, but they could be a Tier 2 team this year. Either way, Tier 3 and 4 are toss ups with Tier 4 being the wins I am counting on. If we get lucky with the Tier 3 teams, we win between 4-6 games, which I think is the ceiling for this year. I can see 3, but can also see 6 if EVERYTHING breaks our way.

That being said, I think the real thing we need to see this year is competence. We had almost none last year on offense. I think our losses will look a lot better this year, and I think that's the improvement we need to be looking for.

I was just trying to keep is simple(r) and present a plausible, optimistic case. And demonstrate that scenario still doesn't get us to a bowl (6 wins).

The alternative view is closer to your post. For example:

• We've been stomped by Duke two consecutive years. We should now chalk that up as a W this year? Based on what?
• Syracuse has been better than us two consecutive years. We play at their place. We should now chalk that up as a W this year? Based on what?

Those are two teams I threw in the toss up category, and you have them in Cat 4.

I think we can beat both of those teams, but there's nothing that suggests we pencil those in.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Offense - improvement will be determined by OL and QB. The end. Not Gibbs, Brown, or any other speed we put out there. Major question marks at the positions that matter.

Defense - improvement will be determined by DL, the LB. Major question marks at the positions that matter. Will not be answered by true frosh.

Special Teams - improvement will be determined by K. Major question mark at the position that matters.

Nothing has been proven on the field at the positions that matter. Lots of hopes, dreams, and optimism. Some of those questions marks will be answered in our favor. There is potential there. Expecting all to be answered this year, without spring practice, is unrealistic, imo.

Love your analysis. I agree with what your points but I see more upside. There is no doubt that our offensive improvement will have to come from our OL and QB. My view is we were historically bad in both areas. So bad in fact that the probability of being that bad again is low. Add in talent like an experienced Graham, and players trained in the spread like Gleason and Sims and there is no way the QB position is as bad as we saw last year. OLine was decimated last year and blocking for QB’s who had little clue. Coach Key and Collins have handled the OLine masterfully with transfers and getting injured guys back. Rotate in some of the big bodies new guys and there is no way that unit is as bad as last year. Coach Key showed last year he knows how to coach as even though they were decimated we actually started blocking the last part of the season.

Your point on defense has always been the critical question for GT football. Can we get the war daddies on the DL and LB’s who are fast and can wrap up. I think the fact that Charlie Thomas is moving to a DB role tells me that Collins is very happy with our up and coming LB’s. I agree our DLine is no where near what Collins wants, but the only way to fix it is to recruit year after year.. But honestly, unless you are a consistent top 8 team you have the same issue. Outside of Clemson no one in the ACC can just roll waves of DLinemen.

Special Teams - again, outside of Harvin they were statistically terrible. We couldn’t kick it into the end zone, our gunners whiffed way too many times, and our field goal kicking was just unreliable. No way we can repeat such a bad output.

And yes, I agree that nothing is proven until we see it on the field. But that’s the same for every team in the country. We play in the ACC and someone has to win those games. We could have won up to 5 games last year with a bounce here and there and we were just horrible. I’m sorry, but I follow the ACC closely and we aren’t facing juggernauts outside of Clemson and UGA.

 

[alagold]

We will be better but probably will not show in won/loss record. That's the very simple analysis.

 

[CuseJacket]

Love your analysis. I agree with what your points but I see more upside. There is no doubt that our offensive improvement will have to come from our OL and QB. My view is we were historically bad in both areas. So bad in fact that the probability of being that bad again is low. Add in talent like an experienced Graham, and players trained in the spread like Gleason and Sims and there is no way the QB position is as bad as we saw last year. OLine was decimated last year and blocking for QB’s who had little clue. Coach Key and Collins have handled the OLine masterfully with transfers and getting injured guys back. Rotate in some of the big bodies new guys and there is no way that unit is as bad as last year. Coach Key showed last year he knows how to coach as even though they were decimated we actually started blocking the last part of the season.

Your point on defense has always been the critical question for GT football. Can we get the war daddies on the DL and LB’s who are fast and can wrap up. I think the fact that Charlie Thomas is moving to a DB role tells me that Collins is very happy with our up and coming LB’s. I agree our DLine is no where near what Collins wants, but the only way to fix it is to recruit year after year.. But honestly, unless you are a consistent top 8 team you have the same issue. Outside of Clemson no one in the ACC can just roll waves of DLinemen.

Special Teams - again, outside of Harvin they were statistically terrible. We couldn’t kick it into the end zone, our gunners whiffed way too many times, and our field goal kicking was just unreliable. No way we can repeat such a bad output.

And yes, I agree that nothing is proven until we see it on the field. But that’s the same for every team in the country. We play in the ACC and someone has to win those games. We could have won up to 5 games last year with a bounce here and there and we were just horrible. I’m sorry, but I follow the ACC closely and we aren’t facing juggernauts outside of Clemson and UGA.

I agree with a lot of your points. Specifically:

• Our QB play will be better
• Our OL play will be better due to grad transfer pieces and last year's experience
• Our kicking can't be worse

I believe all of those things will be proven true. One place where I disagree with you, is that last year we were more than a bounce away from being mediocre. While that was the case in a few games (e.g., UVA, Pitt), what we showed across all of our losses suggests we have a road to hoe to prove we are mediocre.

Some of "what we could have been" last year was masked by injuries. No mediocre team can overcome the injuries to our starters on both lines that we experienced, including the loss of Adams. So, perhaps we were destined to be mediocre last year if not for that. I hope that is the case, but until I see it, I know better than to assume it's coming AND see an increase to above average.

It's a tough schedule. A lot of things have to fall in place to be competitive in the 9-10 games where we can. Unfortunately Clemson and Georgia have gone to another level in the last few years, and so that leaves us with a 10 game schedule of opportunity. That makes it much more challenging to get to a bowl, let alone when we have ND and UCF in our non-con.

Long way of saying I can see a path toward a bowl, but a lot of things have to fall our way. Emphasis on a lot. No injuries probably being #1 before even considering individual player improvement.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

I was just trying to keep is simple(r) and present a plausible, optimistic case. And demonstrate that scenario still doesn't get us to a bowl (6 wins).

The alternative view is closer to your post. For example:

• We've been stomped by Duke two consecutive years. We should now chalk that up as a W this year? Based on what?
• Syracuse has been better than us two consecutive years. We play at their place. We should now chalk that up as a W this year? Based on what?

Those are two teams I threw in the toss up category, and you have them in Cat 4.

I think we can beat both of those teams, but there's nothing that suggests we pencil those in.

I think we beat Duke because they lost a lot and weren't that great to begin with, simply better than us. They are actually projected to be worse than us by several prognosticators.

Similarly, Syracuse has no proven QB, loses their surefire WR, has a D that wasn't great and loses it's best players. I hesitated to pencil it as a win because it's an away game and we embarrassed them last time, but otherwise I can only count two definite wins. I just feel we are in a better place than them incoming talent wise and we get them in game 8, which gives us time to gel.

 

[Techfan02]

I think some of you are crazy. Yes, we stunk it up on offense last year. We couldn’t block and we sure as heck couldn’t pass until the second half of the season and even that was sporadic. And we still won 3 games! We lost just about no one of consequence during this off season. We lost a lot last off season including the death of Adams and then we lost Lee early in the year and Ezzard and Clayton weren’t deemed eligible. Our kickers had to be the worst in the country.

With our additions (even the young freshman), the loss of no one, and other teams losing some talent we will be just fine. Our QB play can’t be any worse. Our blocking can’t get any worse. Our kicking game can’t get any worse. If we are just average we’ll win several games in the ACC. And if we find a QB who has some ability to see the field we’ll take a huge step forward. Our RB’s and WR’s are the best group we’ve had in years and our OLine can’t be any worse. Last year was a cluster and it started in the spring with the death of Adams and with injury after injury and substandard play at the QB position and we hit the bottom. But, a redshirt QB and a true freshman WR gave us some foreshadowing. I can’t wait. And if you don’t think Mason, Griffin, and Gibbs won’t give DC’s nightmares you are nuts. All 3 will play in the NFL. And Brown is an NFL player as well.

Speaking of which do we have a kicker or do I just close my eyes when we kick

 

[boger2337]

Btw you can grab 2.5 wins at -155 on a few books and have heard DraftKings has 2.5 wins at even money.

I think 2.5 ar even money is FREE MONEY.

If I can find a way to take it I will for a lot

 

[684Bee]

Btw you can grab 2.5 wins at -155 on a few books and have heard DraftKings has 2.5 wins at even money.

I think 2.5 ar even money is FREE MONEY.

If I can find a way to take it I will for a lot

If we play this year, yes. Also, if we play, how many games do we play? Full season or reduced?

 

[RyanS12]

Btw you can grab 2.5 wins at -155 on a few books and have heard DraftKings has 2.5 wins at even money.

I think 2.5 ar even money is FREE MONEY.

If I can find a way to take it I will for a lot

I’m waiting for my bookie to put his out and I’m gonna jump all over that number. If the casinos in Detroit were up and running I’d be heading there to lay money on this. 2.5 is easy money

 

[RyanS12]

If we play this year, yes. Also, if we play, how many games do we play? Full season or reduced?

My friends son plays at Eastern Michigan. He told me there’s talk of a scenario in which the season starts in August, play 9 or 10 games with a bye week and the season ends mid October before the fall out break happens (that’s being predicted) The staff told the kids to be prepared for a July mini camp as well.
Who knows how accurate this is, if at all, but it sounds like they’re coming up with contingency plans just in case.

 

[LibertyTurns]

I’m waiting for my bookie to put his out and I’m gonna jump all over that number. If the casinos in Detroit were up and running I’d be heading there to lay money on this. 2.5 is easy money

Gotta admit 2.5 is a very enticing number. I’m still raw from last year but I may just double down if all we need is 3 wins in 12 games.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

I think we beat Duke because they lost a lot and weren't that great to begin with, simply better than us. They are actually projected to be worse than us by several prognosticators.

Similarly, Syracuse has no proven QB, loses their surefire WR, has a D that wasn't great and loses it's best players. I hesitated to pencil it as a win because it's an away game and we embarrassed them last time, but otherwise I can only count two definite wins. I just feel we are in a better place than them incoming talent wise and we get them in game 8, which gives us time to gel.

Thanks for posting this. That’s what I meant when I say we don’t have to be a top 25 team to win 5-6 games in the ACC. Outside of Clemson and UGA we are facing teams with issues just like us. How do you think UVA feels right now without Perkins? He showed that all it takes is one magical player to blow prognostications away. We took a ton of licks last year and will take some licks this year but we are improving. I’ve been blasted before for saying that the 2019 and 2020 seasons were essentially scrimmage games because Collins is all about building the program from the ground up. Wins and losses don’t matter right now. What matters is getting high level in state players interested in GT again (they are) are showing a path forward (Collin is). Along the way we’ll win some games and lose some. But the increase in talent level will lead us to winning way more down the road.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

I agree with a lot of your points. Specifically:

• Our QB play will be better
• Our OL play will be better due to grad transfer pieces and last year's experience
• Our kicking can't be worse

I believe all of those things will be proven true. One place where I disagree with you, is that last year we were more than a bounce away from being mediocre. While that was the case in a few games (e.g., UVA, Pitt), what we showed across all of our losses suggests we have a road to hoe to prove we are mediocre.

Some of "what we could have been" last year was masked by injuries. No mediocre team can overcome the injuries to our starters on both lines that we experienced, including the loss of Adams. So, perhaps we were destined to be mediocre last year if not for that. I hope that is the case, but until I see it, I know better than to assume it's coming AND see an increase to above average.

It's a tough schedule. A lot of things have to fall in place to be competitive in the 9-10 games where we can. Unfortunately Clemson and Georgia have gone to another level in the last few years, and so that leaves us with a 10 game schedule of opportunity. That makes it much more challenging to get to a bowl, let alone when we have ND and UCF in our non-con.

Long way of saying I can see a path toward a bowl, but a lot of things have to fall our way. Emphasis on a lot. No injuries probably being #1 before even considering individual player improvement.

Agreed. We were far from mediocre. The other day I rewatched Citadel. There was a play in the late 2nd half where Charlie Thomas caused a fumble that bounced right into the arms of the Citadel player. That’s the type of plays when I mentioned we were a bounce or two away from 5 wins. And that was with the lowest point in GT football in a long time. I don’t think we make a bowl game next year but it also wouldn’t s hock me if we did just based on who we play. The Coastal is a total crapshoot from week to week. UNC looked good last year because they got consistent QB play. Only UNC and Virginia could say that which is why they rose to the top where normally it’s been VT and GT. I really believe we have one of the best, if not, the best RB/WR combos in the ACC outside of Clemson. If our QB just doesn’t make dumb mistakes we have a lot of potential on offense.

 

[CuseJacket]

Predicting ACC win totals: Clemson should cruise again in 2020 college football season

Georgia Tech (4-8, 3-5)

• Wins: Gardner-Webb, Virginia, at Syracuse, Duke
• Losses: Clemson, UCF, at North Carolina, at Virginia Tech, at Pitt, Notre Dame, Miami, at Georgia
• Analysis: The small steps that Georgia Tech must take in reshaping its football program will be seen locally before breaking out nationally thanks to rigorous schedules that include playing Georgia and Clemson every single season. It's also got UCF and Notre Dame, meaning the Yellow Jackets would need to go 6-2 against the rest of the schedule just to make a bowl game. I think they get half of that, with three confidence-building conference wins that Geoff Collins takes back to the recruiting trail as Georgia Tech builds up for its potential breakthrough in 2021.

 

[awbuzz]

Predicting ACC win totals: Clemson should cruise again in 2020 college football season

Ouch... But reasonable analysis.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Yep, on point although the ACC never follows form. No way do I see VT and Miami winning that many games.

 

[YellowJacketFan2018]

Yep, on point although the ACC never follows form. No way do I see VT and Miami winning that many games.

I don't think anyone in the ACC Coastal Division wins more than 8 games.