Bracketology - Let's Do This

4shotB

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Syracuse shooting was awful last night. Some of it was Houston defense not letting Cuse take comfortable shots, but Cuse missed a lot of open looks as well. Houston needs only to defeat #12 seeded Oregon State to make the Final Four.

I did not see 'Cuse last night but did see Oral Bob. I do not like an offense where the three is your go to weapon. As Liberty says a few posts up, you live by the sword you will die from it eventually. ORU was cold as ice ( 8 for 31) and they were getting really good looks in most cases. At a normal shooting % they run the Hogs out of the gym.
 

orientalnc

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I did not see 'Cuse last night but did see Oral Bob. I do not like an offense where the three is your go to weapon. As Liberty says a few posts up, you live by the sword you will die from it eventually. ORU was cold as ice ( 8 for 31) and they were getting really good looks in most cases. At a normal shooting % they run the Hogs out of the gym.
I agree, but Arkansas and Houston were part of the salad of reasons why ORU and Cuse were missing shots. Frantic defense in both cases.
 

RamblinRed

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Syracuse was going to lose as soon as they had a bad shooting night. In their first 2 Tournament games they shot 54% from the field and 50% from three (29-58). Those were both way above their season avg (44% and 35%), eventually they were going to come back to the mean. They came back largely due to some really strong defense by Houston, but they were also simply due a bad shooting game.

There was no time in the second half where it felt like Syracuse could win that game. Syracuse got it down to 4 pts with 12:38 left, but Houston scored on its next possession and Syracuse never got closer than a 3 possession game after that.
 

RamblinRed

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I did not see 'Cuse last night but did see Oral Bob. I do not like an offense where the three is your go to weapon. As Liberty says a few posts up, you live by the sword you will die from it eventually. ORU was cold as ice ( 8 for 31) and they were getting really good looks in most cases. At a normal shooting % they run the Hogs out of the gym.
You definitely won't like AL and Nate Oats. His entire offensive philsophy rests on advanced analytics that say any shot other than a shot in the circle or a 3-pt shot are bad shots. In their practices they tape their floors and basically show where there players should take shots from and they are penalized if they take anything other than shots from those 2 places.
 

4shotB

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You definitely won't like AL and Nate Oats. His entire offensive philsophy rests on advanced analytics that say any shot other than a shot in the circle or a 3-pt shot are bad shots. In their practices they tape their floors and basically show where there players should take shots from and they are penalized if they take anything other than shots from those 2 places.

You are probably right. I understand the advantages of the 3 point shot. But, as the saying goes, if your only tool is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. You need to have the ability to score in other fashion as well with either your bigs or guards who can penetrate and get to the rim. If you heard that Arkansas scored all their points in the paint, you would think it was all the bigs. While they did well, mostly off of OR's, their guards scored a lot of those too by driving to the rim. ORU did not have an interior presence to defend that. Or, perhaps they did but were playing not to draw fouls.
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CuseJacket

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You are probably right. I understand the advantages of the 3 point shot. But, as the saying goes, if your only tool is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. You need to have the ability to score in other fashion as well with either your bigs or guards who can penetrate and get to the rim. If you heard that Arkansas scored all their points in the paint, you would think it was all the bigs. While they did well, mostly off of OR's, their guards scored a lot of those too by driving to the rim. ORU did not have an interior presence to defend that. Or, perhaps they did but were playing not to draw fouls.
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Totally get your point. And at the same time, Syracuse would prefer to be dynamic and score in every fashion imaginable. As would Georgia Tech, Alabama, Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina, etc.

At some point you need to design your offense based on personnel. The defense gets a say in the outcome. Syracuse tried to get in the lane. Houston just swallowed everything they tried to do in the half court.
 

slugboy

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You definitely won't like AL and Nate Oats. His entire offensive philsophy rests on advanced analytics that say any shot other than a shot in the circle or a 3-pt shot are bad shots. In their practices they tape their floors and basically show where there players should take shots from and they are penalized if they take anything other than shots from those 2 places.
You’d think a competing coach would come up with a defense specifically for those zones, or a variant on the 3-2 zone
 

CuseJacket

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You’d think a competing coach would come up with a defense specifically for those zones, or a variant on the 3-2 zone
That strategy is already prevalent and is essentially what a number of teams try to do, whether by zone or by man. Take away the three and bait the offense into long 2's. Obviously no defense is designed to give up lay-ups.

If I recall correctly that's allegedly what Loyola's man defense does well (didn't watch them much after our game). That's what Syracuse's plan was last night and for a lot of the season (depending on opponent). They didn't really guard the catch at the free throw line extended last night.
 

RamblinRed

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That strategy is already prevalent and is essentially what a number of teams try to do, whether by zone or by man. Take away the three and bait the offense into long 2's. Obviously no defense is designed to give up lay-ups.

If I recall correctly that's allegedly what Loyola's man defense does well (didn't watch them much after our game). That's what Syracuse's plan was last night and for a lot of the season (depending on opponent). They didn't really guard the catch at the free throw line extended last night.

Of course the reason for AL's setup is that the analytics suggest that not enough players can hit jumpshots in the 10-18 ft range to make it worthwhile to take them. It's pretty simple to chart. You simply take the value of the shot and multiply it by the percentage of makes. That gives you a nice chart of your best shot probabilities and you build your offense around your best shots. FBOW not very many players are good mid-range shooters these days, so it makes those mid range shots pretty low value.

The easiest way to attack any zone is not to take 3's, but to get the zone moving and then attack the holes. in Syracuse' 2-3 zone that 15 ft middle is always open to begin with. You then want to offensively put someone in there that is good at 2 things - making a 15 ft jumpshot, and making good passes. Because then you force the zone to make a choice. Either someone has to step up from the baseline to cover the 15 ft shooter or someone has to drop down from the 3-pt line, or everyone stays put. At that point you simply wait for the zone to commit to its decision and then make your move based on that commitment. If they leave it open you take the 15 ft shot (that's why you need someone who can hit that with a high percentage), if they dig down from the 3-pt line you make a pass to an open 3-pt shooter for a 3-pt shot. If they move someone up from the baseline you run a player to the basket and make the pass for a close in shot.

As someone else mentioned, it's not just about the bigs getting close in shots. You can get close in shots with guards as well. You just have to move the defense around. Every defense has strengths and weaknesses. No defense is perfect just like no offense is perfect.

And of course you need to build in particular your offense, and to a lesser extent your defense, based on the strengths and weaknesses of your team. As a coaching staff your goal is always to try to maximize your strengths and minimize your weaknesses, and in reverse you want to try to force your opponents to play in a way they are uncomfortable.
 

RyanS12

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Syracuse shooting was awful last night. Some of it was Houston defense not letting Cuse take comfortable shots, but Cuse missed a lot of open looks as well. Houston needs only to defeat #12 seeded Oregon State to make the Final Four.
I thought Houston looked a lot like Hamilton’s FSU teams just not as long. Fast pace, uptempo, athletic guys all over the place. It looks like you’re playing against 6 or 7 when Houston is playing D. They’re all over the place.
 

GT_EE78

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announcers don't seem to think the remainder of games need to be played. (fawning over gonzaga)
gonzaga sweat just smells like the sweat of undefeated champions
 

Milwaukee

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announcers don't seem to think the remainder of games need to be played. (fawning over gonzaga)
gonzaga sweat just smells like the sweat of undefeated champions
This Zaga squad is the best college team I’ve seen in over 2 decades. If they have a cold shooting night they can be beat though, but damn they’re fun to watch if you’re a cbb fan.
 

GTbball2016

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This Zaga squad is the best college team I’ve seen in over 2 decades. If they have a cold shooting night they can be beat though, but damn they’re fun to watch if you’re a cbb fan.
The 2004 UCONN team could have beat them with the way they peaked in the tournament.
 

orientalnc

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They never take a bad shot. But it also appears that getting good shots is really easy. Creighton is a good team and they are simply overmatched.
 
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