Bracketology - Let's Do This

[Fatmike91]

The good news (sort of) is that the 'Cuse team playing now is better than the 'Cuse team we beat.

I'm not sure I agree with that statement. I think the 'Case team we beat had already discovered their current form. They were on a win streak when we beat them.

I agree they are a much better team than the first half of the season.

/

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I'm not sure I agree with that statement. I think the 'Case team we beat had already discovered their current form. They were on a win streak when we beat them.

I agree they are a much better team than the first half of the season.

/

Some people disconnected from Tech have said we didn't beat much of anybody in our 8 game win streak. But Syracuse had found their form and won most of their final 10 games. When we beat Notre Dame earlier on, it was during their one stretch that they were playing really good ball. We didn't play well against Miami, but that was also during their best stretch of basketball by far all year. And its not like Florida State played bad against us, we just found a way to beat an elite team (again). Virginia Tech on the road. Etc etc

Models are models, and opinions are opinions. My beef this year is we knew models might have a tough time due to scheduling issues and canceled games. And that's fine. I just think that thinking humans who rank teams and pick seeds for a tournament should be more deliberate. You should double check your work. Does it really make sense to invite teams with losing records rated #70? Does it really make sense to take two teams with similar conference records and overall records in two different major P5 conferences and give one a 2 seed and the other an 8 seed? The human side of everything was what failed this year. Some conferences were better than others, but the level of bias in models and humans believing that like the Elite 8 would be all Big Ten or something was just ridiculous.

 

[MtnWasp]

I think too many people in positions to make decisions are lost in an hierarchical thinking paradigm. They are biased to think in term of a conference being superior to another and are susceptible to confirmation bias and being impervious to data that might support a different way to interpret the observations.

This is the only way I can think that wold result in a team like The Ohio St. getting a better seed in the NCAAT than they did in the conference tournament.

I think this hierarchical paradigm is highly susceptible to bias created by pre-season rankings, and that the value of wins is founded on these pre-season rankings which are not based on game outcomes, and therefore, B.S. They baked the inaacuracy and bias into the system right from the start. And in teh case of this season ,it really snowballed into a real train-wreck of a seeding.

The other paradigm is to embrace parity and that rankings and superiority is determined by results on the court and that the weighting or wins and losses is not contaminated by pre-season biases.

I think that they seedings would have been better by drawing them out of a hat this year.

 

[slugboy]

I think that they seedings would have been better by drawing them out of a hat this year.

I’m all for drawing seeds out of a hat, or a drum, or whatever unbiased random picker you got

 

[ESPNjacket]

I think too many people in positions to make decisions are lost in an hierarchical thinking paradigm. They are biased to think in term of a conference being superior to another and are susceptible to confirmation bias and being impervious to data that might support a different way to interpret the observations.

This is the only way I can think that wold result in a team like The Ohio St. getting a better seed in the NCAAT than they did in the conference tournament.

I think this hierarchical paradigm is highly susceptible to bias created by pre-season rankings, and that the value of wins is founded on these pre-season rankings which are not based on game outcomes, and therefore, B.S. They baked the inaacuracy and bias into the system right from the start. And in teh case of this season ,it really snowballed into a real train-wreck of a seeding.

The other paradigm is to embrace parity and that rankings and superiority is determined by results on the court and that the weighting or wins and losses is not contaminated by pre-season biases.

I think that they seedings would have been better by drawing them out of a hat this year.

Why do you think pre-season rankings had much influence?

 

[jeffgt14]

I think too many people in positions to make decisions are lost in an hierarchical thinking paradigm. They are biased to think in term of a conference being superior to another and are susceptible to confirmation bias and being impervious to data that might support a different way to interpret the observations.

This is the only way I can think that wold result in a team like The Ohio St. getting a better seed in the NCAAT than they did in the conference tournament.

I think this hierarchical paradigm is highly susceptible to bias created by pre-season rankings, and that the value of wins is founded on these pre-season rankings which are not based on game outcomes, and therefore, B.S. They baked the inaacuracy and bias into the system right from the start. And in teh case of this season ,it really snowballed into a real train-wreck of a seeding.

The other paradigm is to embrace parity and that rankings and superiority is determined by results on the court and that the weighting or wins and losses is not contaminated by pre-season biases.

I think that they seedings would have been better by drawing them out of a hat this year.

It's the same **** every year in both football and basketball. The media decides which conferences are strong and which conferences are weak and rides it all season long. The general population then just regurgitates it and disregards any team seen in a weak Conference and talks up mediocre teams in the the strong conference.

I really couldn't give 2 ****s about this but then your stuck pulling for teams you want to constantly lose because it "makes your conference look better". Pro sports you can root for every other team in your division to lose and it's a great experience. There's also no room for bias to be introduced because W/L is the only thing that matters.

 

[CuseJacket]

I'm not sure I agree with that statement. I think the 'Case team we beat had already discovered their current form. They were on a win streak when we beat them.

I agree they are a much better team than the first half of the season.

/

I agree that they were better during our game than earlier in the season. But we did not face the same team as the current 5 game stretch. They weren't on any win streak when we played them. They had just gotten smoked by Duke and were 3-2 in their prior 5 games, with closer than expected wins against bad teams in ND and BC.

The current streak I'm referencing started when they beat Clemson last game of the regular season, then smacked NC State and took Virginia to the wire in the ACCT. Followed by two solid NCAAT games. I'm dismissing the game prior to Clemson when 'Cuse beat UNC at home because of the way the game was won i.e., poor play by both teams.

Some differences in their play now vs. when they played us:

1. Defensively against us, Syracuse flew out to the 3-point line on shooters like Khalid and Jordan. Love our guys, but that's a losing strategy. They are not doing that now with guys that you want shooting those shots, and there is awareness among all 5 guys who those players are i.e., better communication and focus.
2. Robert Braswell has emerged as a viable front court option and not a last resort. In the current 5 game stretch he's logged 20+ minutes four times, whereas in the entirety of the season beforehand he did that once, due to Quincy Guerrier being in foul trouble.
3. PG Joe Girard has had 7 assists three out of the five games. He did that once in the first 22.
4. Marek Dolezaj played the worst game of his season, if not the worst game of his career, against us. He gathered 5 fouls in 10 minutes and most were unforced. I'm not trying to take anything away from the fouls forced by GT, but he picked up more bonehead fouls in non-competitive situations in our game e.g., in the front court with no press on. He's arguably the best and most important player for Syracuse, and he's been more responsible with the fouls he's gathered over the current stretch.

The things that I think are nearly the same include: Moses would still dominate. We controlled Buddy, who was off and running though maybe at a slightly lesser clip (he is now doing it through face guarding and double-teaming). And I still think we (GT) have a better starting five.

 

[Tadams6599]

The good news (sort of) is that the 'Cuse team playing now is better than the 'Cuse team we beat.

Night and day defensively (KYP - know your personnel) e.g., they don't fly out at bad 3-point shooters anymore, forward rotations are sharper, emergence of something from the bench, etc.

Obviously Buddy Boeheim flipped a switch offensively at a convenient point in the season, as has Girard to some extent. Why? I believe it is in large part because the team as a whole had 2 Covid pauses this season, with Buddy having a 3rd due to contact tracing. That is a ton of missed practice time that others outside-looking-in ignore/don't know about/ultimately dismiss. Maybe GT fans will have a better appreciation given what we looked like to start the year, and that was with practices, just non-contact. Both guards actually had Covid with symptoms, so when they came back in real games they were at less than full speed.

Net/net: They lost their legs and looked lethargic for much of the season... until basically March.

Also helps that San Diego State and West Virginia looked incompetent for 3 total halves offensively against the zone. But the KYP focus has been so much better and it's a change that is noticeable independent of the opponent. Their KenPom adjusted defense was in the 90's and even 100's near the end of the season. They're now #86 after two NCAAT games.

O

 

[slugboy]

Syracuse (at least the Men’s team) has made a habit of peaking for the tourney. Over the last 3 seasons, they have a 28-29 ACC record, but kill it in the tournament

Why does Syracuse struggle in the ACC, then go on an inevitable NCAA Tournament run?

No. 11 seed Syracuse beat No. 6 San Diego State and No. 3 West Virginia to advance to the Sweet 16.

theathletic.com

From the other bracket, Syracuse lost to UConn in the Women’s, but we get a nice write up from the local paper:

 

[GT_EE78]

getting back to basketball for a change, some of these lines are shifting

South Regional​

No. 1 Baylor (-6.5) vs. No. 5 Villanova
No. 3 Arkansas (-11) vs. No. 15 Oral Roberts

Midwest Regional​

No. 8 Loyola Chicago (-6.5) vs. No. 12 Oregon State
No. 2 Houston (-6) vs. No. 11 Syracuse

East Regional​

No. 1 Michigan (-3) vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 2 Alabama (-5.5) vs. No. 11 UCLA

West Regional​

No. 1 Gonzaga (-13.5) vs. No. 5 Creighton
No. 6 USC (-1) vs. No. 7 Oregon

 

[RamblinRed]

 

[RamblinRed]

Article on players who have helped and hurt their stock with their NCAA Performances so far.
2 ACC players are mentioned

2021 NCAA Tournament: NBA Draft prospects who helped or hurt their stock in the first weekend of March Madness

The NBA Draft Big Board has been updated after watching prospects during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament

www.cbssports.com

Buddy Boeheim, Syracuse​

CBS Sports Big Board: 46

The Buddy Boeheim breakout has been in motion for over a month now after scoring 29, 21, 26, 27 and 31 in late ACC action. But on the big stage he's sustained that breakthrough and blossomed all the while as a legitimate prospect. Against No. 6 seed San Diego State he put on an offensive clinic, scoring 30 points on 11-of-15 shooting then backed it up with 25 points against third-seeded West Virginia on 17 shots. In that span, he's made 13 of his 23 outside shots.

Boeheim isn't just draining shots, he's doing so with a high degree of difficulty and -- to his credit -- Syracuse is making a Cinderella run that only elevates his profile. The variety of ways in which he can score not just as a spot-up shooter but off the dribble and running off screens heightens his ceiling as a potentially lethal shooting specialist in the NBA. Here's one of the many examples of how he can knock down shots off movement, which resembles how JJ Redick and other movement shooters have been able to carve out long NBA careers.

Others who hurt their stock​

I'll cop out here and add two more names who, because of various circumstances, did not play in the NCAA Tournament. The first is Moses Wright of Georgia Tech. The reigning ACC Player of the Year did not participate in the NCAA Tournament because of COVID protocols, thwarting an opportunity for those who might've overlooked him this season to see him on the big stage.

Both could have -- and I think would have -- shown some serious stuff and benefited from the spotlight of March Madness.

 

[Pointer]

Article on players who have helped and hurt their stock with their NCAA Performances so far.
2 ACC players are mentioned

2021 NCAA Tournament: NBA Draft prospects who helped or hurt their stock in the first weekend of March Madness

The NBA Draft Big Board has been updated after watching prospects during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament

www.cbssports.com

Buddy Boeheim, Syracuse​

CBS Sports Big Board: 46

The Buddy Boeheim breakout has been in motion for over a month now after scoring 29, 21, 26, 27 and 31 in late ACC action. But on the big stage he's sustained that breakthrough and blossomed all the while as a legitimate prospect. Against No. 6 seed San Diego State he put on an offensive clinic, scoring 30 points on 11-of-15 shooting then backed it up with 25 points against third-seeded West Virginia on 17 shots. In that span, he's made 13 of his 23 outside shots.

Boeheim isn't just draining shots, he's doing so with a high degree of difficulty and -- to his credit -- Syracuse is making a Cinderella run that only elevates his profile. The variety of ways in which he can score not just as a spot-up shooter but off the dribble and running off screens heightens his ceiling as a potentially lethal shooting specialist in the NBA. Here's one of the many examples of how he can knock down shots off movement, which resembles how JJ Redick and other movement shooters have been able to carve out long NBA careers.

Others who hurt their stock​

I'll cop out here and add two more names who, because of various circumstances, did not play in the NCAA Tournament. The first is Moses Wright of Georgia Tech. The reigning ACC Player of the Year did not participate in the NCAA Tournament because of COVID protocols, thwarting an opportunity for those who might've overlooked him this season to see him on the big stage.

Both could have -- and I think would have -- shown some serious stuff and benefited from the spotlight of March Madness.

I can't say I like the last part, but selfishly I want Moses to think he needs another year to better position himself in the draft. Wish nothing but the best for him either way.

 

[Milwaukee]

An absolute UNIT

 

[forensicbuzz]

An absolute UNIT

Yeah, until he and Stanley Roberts ran in to a little thing called "Lethal Weapon Three." Malcolm Mackey and Johnnie McNeil held him to 20 points. Malcolm had 7 OFR and 7 DRB to match O'Neil (Roberts had 15 TRB). Each team essentially went 6 deep. That was a magical run. I know if we'd had gotten past UNLV, we would have crushed Duke.

Scott/Anderson/Oliver went 30/26/18.

 

[lauraee]

Yeah, until he and Stanley Roberts ran in to a little thing called "Lethal Weapon Three." Malcolm Mackey and Johnnie McNeil held him to 20 points. Malcolm had 7 OFR and 7 DRB to match O'Neil (Roberts had 15 TRB). Each team essentially went 6 deep. That was a magical run. I know if we'd had gotten past UNLV, we would have crushed Duke.

Scott/Anderson/Oliver went 30/26/18.

We led in that unlv game despite Oliver heavy a gimpy do it. Thank the refs for putting KA in foul trouble, really changed things.

 

[684Bee]

We led in that unlv game despite Oliver heavy a gimpy do it. Thank the refs for putting KA in foul trouble, really changed things.

I believe we were up 7 at the half.

 

[RamblinRed]

 

[Milwaukee]

Loyola looking ROUGH. Overall crappy half by both teams.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Loyola looking ROUGH. Overall crappy half by both teams.

22% from the field. Cant hit anything.