Bracketology - Let's Do This

[lv20gt]

I believe because we scheduled "home and home" with Kentucky, the win is considered a home win.

This is a good 'team sheet' site that logs H vs A vs N site games, and it has the Kentucky win as a home game too:

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Nitty Gritty at Bracketologists

bracketologists.com

Thanks, the reason i thought it was neutral was because Kentucky was ranked 77th in the last NET rankings and when I checked GT was shown to have been 4-0 against Q2. Kentucky moved from 77th, which for Home should be Q3 to 64 which would be Q2 at home. If it was considered neutral both would fall into the Q2 band so there wouldn't have been a change.

 

[lv20gt]

fwiw http://stats.ncaa.org/teams/505669 lists us a 1-0 in neutral site games.

 

[D-man44]

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Results, Picks, Power Rankings, Odds & Stats on TeamRankings.com
I don't love team rankings but up to 28% chance which sounds about right.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Results, Picks, Power Rankings, Odds & Stats on TeamRankings.com
I don't love team rankings but up to 28% chance which sounds about right.

If those estimates took into account remaining schedule (with most of our opponents below us), I’d put us at 75%. Going 3-1 then 2-1 in the ACCT should be the expectation. That would place is 5th or 6th in the ACC and 16-10 overall. Our NET rating would likely be around 37-42. That’s in all day.

 

[joehamiltonfan14]

I’m of the opinion we need to win out and at least one, probably two wins in the ACC tournament needed. That would get us to 16-9 or 17-9 with two wins. 17-9 probably what is going to take.

 

[GT_EE78]

If those estimates took into account remaining schedule (with most of our opponents below us), I’d put us at 75%. Going 3-1 then 2-1 in the ACCT should be the expectation. That would place is 5th or 6th in the ACC and 16-10 overall. Our NET rating would likely be around 37-42. That’s in all day.

I hope you're right but that link is less optimistic... A win at VT would be Yuuge

Odds To Make NCAA Tournament By Win Total​

Total Wins	NCAA Bid%
22	100.0%
21	100.0%
20	99.7%
19	94.7%
18	76.2%
17	43.1%
16	9.5%
15	0.2%
OVERALL	27.8%

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I hope you're right but that link is less optimistic... A win at VT would be Yuuge

Odds To Make NCAA Tournament By Win Total​

Total Wins	NCAA Bid%
22	100.0%
21	100.0%
20	99.7%
19	94.7%
18	76.2%
17	43.1%
16	9.5%
15	0.2%
OVERALL	27.8%

Oh I see now. Yea I’d say that chart is almost irrelevant. What are the quality of your wins? How many games got canceled due to Covid?

 

[boger2337]

Win the ACCT and there is no question what's crazy is we could do it. The team has the talent, but can they all click at the same time is the question.

 

[JDjacket]

Wonder if our large number of games on short rest give us a small advantage in terms of experience/preparation for the ACC tournament or if it’s negligible.

 

[lv20gt]

IMO a lot of places are leaning heavily on prior years to make projections which I think is a reasonable thing to do but also flawed. This year has so many canceled games and weird schedules that its hard for me to believe anyone has that great an idea about how the bubble will play out. Win totals especially I wouldn't bother with. I'd look at NET rankings

Looking at 2019 here are some at large bids that made it in and their NET rankings and Q1 records and Q2 records

Belmont - 47 /2-3 /4-2
Temple - 56 /2-7 /6-2
Minnesota - 61 /6-11 /7-2
St Johns - 73 /5-7 /5-4
Arizona State-63 /3-4 /9-3
Ohios State- 55 /5-11 /5-3

Here are two other teams from the 2019 year to consider

Clemson - 35 /1-10 /6-3
NCSU - 33 /3-9 /5-1

The thing is those two weren't even in the first four out. Here were the first four out according to the committee.
UNCG - 60 /2-6 /2-1
Alabama - 59 /3-10 /7-3
TCU - 52 /3-10 /8-4
Indiana - 54 /6-9 /3-6

Currently we're sitting at 51 /1-6/4-0

If we win out in the regular season we'd be at x /2-6 /6-0.

My take away is that the committee appeared to favor Q1 wins a good bit but also seemed to look at Q2 losses. The former doesn't really favor us while the latter does. IMO if we win out we are likely in based on who got in and who was left out in the 2019 year. I was trying to find out why Bama was a first four out instead of NCSU since to me it seems like NCSU has the clear better resume. Only thing I can see is NCSU played 10 Q4 games that year and Bama only played 4 (and lost one). That probably played a role either directly or in the SOS metric. FWIW we have only played 2 Q4 games this year

My take is if we win out in the regular season we are likely in. We're already 51 which is higher than most of the teams listed and that would probably rise as our 4 remaining games are Q1, Q2, Q2, Q3 (although @wake is borderline Q2 they probably won't be if we beat them). We also have chances for the clemson, unc, and kentucky if they are considered neutral site, to be bumped up to Q1. Lets say one of those happens. If we're ranked 40th, are 3-6, 7-0 in the Q1 Q2 that looks in to me.

But again, looking at any kind of data that relies on win totals from previous years is likely going to be inaccurate. I think regardless we need to get another big win, either @VT or likely in the ACCT. And I think we really need to be pulling for UNC, Clemson, and Kentucky.

 

[JDjacket]

Clemson has a good chance to win out into the ACC tournament to make it to top 30. UNC schedule is a bit tougher with FSU and Duke rivalry game left, but feel like they could go 3-1 with only a loss to FSU and they’ll probably make top 30.

Although jumping teams is harder near the top, I think they can both do it. Kentucky only has 2 games left vs Florida and Ole miss. Think they’d need to win both to end top 50.

 

[ramblinwreckguru]

If those estimates took into account remaining schedule (with most of our opponents below us), I’d put us at 75%. Going 3-1 then 2-1 in the ACCT should be the expectation. That would place is 5th or 6th in the ACC and 16-10 overall. Our NET rating would likely be around 37-42. That’s in all day.

I get expecting 3-1 in the regular season, but we'll be playing a 1-4 seed in the second round of the ACCT which will be a tough matchup.

 

[LibertyTurns]

I get expecting 3-1 in the regular season, but we'll be playing a 1-4 seed in the second round of the ACCT which will be a tough matchup.

If we can’t win that game we probably deserve to miss the tourney.

 

[jbix80]

How does this NET process work? Penn State is 7-12 (4-11 in the conference) and at the bottom of the Big Ten (I know the Big Ten is tough this year), yet they are around 40 in the NET. At some point, you have to win games. I think strength of schedule is overrated at times. I appreciate a tough schedule, but if you lose most of those games, what does it matter?

 

[augustabuzz]

I believe because we scheduled "home and home" with Kentucky, the win is considered a home win.

This is a good 'team sheet' site that logs H vs A vs N site games, and it has the Kentucky win as a home game too:

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Nitty Gritty at Bracketologists

bracketologists.com

Neutral is a set mileage from home court and I think it is 35 miles. It has been a good while since I read that. Don't take it for fact today.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

How does this NET process work? Penn State is 7-12 (4-11 in the conference) and at the bottom of the Big Ten (I know the Big Ten is tough this year), yet they are around 40 in the NET. At some point, you have to win games. I think strength of schedule is overrated at times. I appreciate a tough schedule, but if you lose most of those games, what does it matter?

It’s based largely on efficiency (points per possession) and winning away games IIRC. In other words, you could lose every game but if you’re efficient with the ball still have a good rating. Yes there’s a bit more to it than that, but IIRC those are the largest inputs. As you point out with Penn State (there are many other examples too) it has major flaws as all models do.

 

[jbix80]

It’s based largely on efficiency (points per possession) and winning away games IIRC. In other words, you could lose every game but if you’re efficient with the ball still have a good rating. Yes there’s a bit more to it than that, but IIRC those are the largest inputs. As you point out with Penn State (there are many other examples too) it has major flaws as all models do.

Thanks! I live near State College, and it drives me crazy that people are talking about them on the bubble.

 

[ramblinwreckguru]

If we can’t win that game we probably deserve to miss the tourney.

Oh, I think we can beat any team in the ACC. I just don't think we can expect to beat a top 4 team. That said, I put our starting 5 over any other in the ACC. Gonna be a fun finish to say the least.

 

[MiracleWhips]

Someone take my phone away. Please!

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Thanks! I live near State College, and it drives me crazy that people are talking about them on the bubble.

Well if the NCAA committee picks teams based on the NET rating, then they’re not on the bubble - they’re in. But it certainly shows a glaring example of what’s wrong with their model.