Bracketology - Let's Do This

slugboy

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Even if it’s normally a good model, it wasn’t built for the lack of inter-conference play that we saw this year.

(Yes, there was inter-conference play, but it was less this year)
 

g0lftime

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The big question I have is how many teams will the committee take from any one conference and more specifically the ACC. The ACC is not seen as a strong conference this year and they may only take 4 or 5 teams. Our overall record is not stellar regardless of conference record. Got to really go on a win streak.
 

bwelbo

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The big question I have is how many teams will the committee take from any one conference and more specifically the ACC. The ACC is not seen as a strong conference this year and they may only take 4 or 5 teams. Our overall record is not stellar regardless of conference record. Got to really go on a win streak.

The Big Ten is enormously overrated (4 in the top 7, 8 in the top 31) in NET this year and the ACC enormously underrated. Teams in the middle like UNC, Duke, Clemson, Georgia Tech. Even lower teams like Pittsburgh and Notre Dame are playing well. These are not ranked teams, but they are all bracket busters if they got in with 7-12 seeds.

NET basically is saying to give 8 Big Ten teams top 4 seeds.
 

lv20gt

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The big question I have is how many teams will the committee take from any one conference and more specifically the ACC. The ACC is not seen as a strong conference this year and they may only take 4 or 5 teams. Our overall record is not stellar regardless of conference record. Got to really go on a win streak.

I doubt they will take that into consideration. They may only take 4 or 5 but I doubt they are going to say "well we'd take Georgia Tech but the ACC only deserves 5 teams".

Here is a link to a decent article explaining what the committee looks at. link

One interesting point is that it does take into account imbalanced conference schedules which would likely favor us as our conference record has been brutally imbalanced in part just because of initial scheduling, but also because our two canceled games are against BC, last place team, and NCSU who was in the bottom 4 recently

It also says they factor in player and coach availability. My guess is that same idea will be applied this year where they will take covid pauses and the like into consideration. That could help us with hand waving the early losses away to some extent if we are a bubble team.

It also includes KenPom which currently has us at 40th compared to 51st in the NET. It also includes Sagarin (we're 48) If those continue to track ahead of the NET it looks good for us. Currently the ESPN BPI is a little behind at 55 and I can't find KPI.

All in all when I think this VT game is really big for us. Win that and I think we likely end up on the right side of the bubble, especially if we win out the rest of the way. Lose and we likely have to make a nice run in the ACCT to get in.
 

bwelbo

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I doubt they will take that into consideration. They may only take 4 or 5 but I doubt they are going to say "well we'd take Georgia Tech but the ACC only deserves 5 teams".

Here is a link to a decent article explaining what the committee looks at. link

One interesting point is that it does take into account imbalanced conference schedules which would likely favor us as our conference record has been brutally imbalanced in part just because of initial scheduling, but also because our two canceled games are against BC, last place team, and NCSU who was in the bottom 4 recently

It also says they factor in player and coach availability. My guess is that same idea will be applied this year where they will take covid pauses and the like into consideration. That could help us with hand waving the early losses away to some extent if we are a bubble team.

It also includes KenPom which currently has us at 40th compared to 51st in the NET. It also includes Sagarin (we're 48) If those continue to track ahead of the NET it looks good for us. Currently the ESPN BPI is a little behind at 55 and I can't find KPI.

All in all when I think this VT game is really big for us. Win that and I think we likely end up on the right side of the bubble, especially if we win out the rest of the way. Lose and we likely have to make a nice run in the ACCT to get in.

If we lose to VT but beat Syracuse, Duke, and Wake Forest, as long as we win the first round game in the ACCT, I don't see how they leave us out. VT being a tough road game, it likely won't count against us in the ratings if we lose. Maybe back up 5 slots. Then win the next 3 and we'll move forward 10-15 slots. Seems to me a 3-1 finish puts us around 37-42 in NET and Sagarin, and 30-35 in KenPom. 10-7 in the ACC and 14-9 when we missed 3 easy wins in conference play - I don't see any way they'd skip us. And they'd have to skip us in that scenario. The odds are highly likely that if not for those canceled games, we would have headed into the ACCT 13-7 in the ACC, 17-9 overall.
 

lv20gt

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If we lose to VT but beat Syracuse, Duke, and Wake Forest, as long as we win the first round game in the ACCT, I don't see how they leave us out. VT being a tough road game, it likely won't count against us in the ratings if we lose. Maybe back up 5 slots. Then win the next 3 and we'll move forward 10-15 slots. Seems to me a 3-1 finish puts us around 37-42 in NET and Sagarin, and 30-35 in KenPom. 10-7 in the ACC and 14-9 when we missed 3 easy wins in conference play - I don't see any way they'd skip us. And they'd have to skip us in that scenario. The odds are highly likely that if not for those canceled games, we would have headed into the ACCT 13-7 in the ACC, 17-9 overall.

The issue is that if we win just one in the ACCT it means we lose another game so we'd be finishing 3-2 not 3-1. And the bigger issue is that would likely put us at 1-8 in Q1 games. To me it looks like the committee puts priority on Q1 wins to determine which of the bubble teams get in along with SOS. Our SOS is pretty good, but 1-8 in Q1 games I think would put us on the wrong side. That's why I think the VT game is big. I think we're significantly better off beating VT and losing to say Duke or @Wake than the other way around. I think it's also why Clemson, UNC, and Kentucky* doing well is also big for us.

But it is all speculation and we don't know how much the committee will look at things like missed games
 

bwelbo

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The issue is that if we win just one in the ACCT it means we lose another game so we'd be finishing 3-2 not 3-1. And the bigger issue is that would likely put us at 1-8 in Q1 games. To me it looks like the committee puts priority on Q1 wins to determine which of the bubble teams get in along with SOS. Our SOS is pretty good, but 1-8 in Q1 games I think would put us on the wrong side. That's why I think the VT game is big. I think we're significantly better off beating VT and losing to say Duke or @Wake than the other way around. I think it's also why Clemson, UNC, and Kentucky* doing well is also big for us.

But it is all speculation and we don't know how much the committee will look at things like missed games

I wasn't including the ACCT. If we go 1-1 in the ACCT in that scenario, then we would finish 4-2.

Our Quad 1 record is predominantly what it is because we haven't won on the road. If we beat Syracuse soon, then we'll have beaten Syracuse, Clemson, Florida State, and North Carolina - all of whom are ahead of us in NET and all of whom are solid teams. But because they rate what's a Q1 win differently based on where its played, only the Florida State win counts as a Q1 win. Its a quirk in the NET ratings if your home wins just happen to be outside of the top 30. Its also why we're undefeated in Q2.

North Carolina is #34 in NET rankings and is also 1-6 in Q1 (largely for the same reason). San Diego State is #24 in NET rankings and they don't have a single Q1 win.

It doesn't matter what formula/model you use - RPI, Sagarin, KenPom, or NET - they all have their weaknesses.
 

MWBATL

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If we lose to VT but beat Syracuse, Duke, and Wake Forest, as long as we win the first round game in the ACCT, I don't see how they leave us out.
Seriously? This is the NCAA Tournament.The NCAA thinks very little of us. Lunardi doesn't even have us on his radar, and I suspect his opinion is reflection of what the committee will do.

I'm not saying we definitely won't get in, but even with the scenario you outline, I could easily see us being bypassed.
 

bwelbo

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Seriously? This is the NCAA Tournament.The NCAA thinks very little of us. Lunardi doesn't even have us on his radar, and I suspect his opinion is reflection of what the committee will do.

I'm not saying we definitely won't get in, but even with the scenario you outline, I could easily see us being bypassed.

I never got over one time where there was a 4-way tie for first in the ACC at 12-4. We were next, and didn't get in. We get skipped and passed for bowl games too. I get your well grounded pessimism and cynicism. Hopefully we'll make it difficult on the committee at least.
 

bwelbo

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First 4 out on USA Today

Also, more proof of the craziness infinite loop NET is stuck in. Three #1 seeds from the Big Ten? LOL. They have so many Q1 wins because they all are ranked in Q1 and all play each other. Even the #12 team in the Big Ten counts as a Q1 win, and that's Penn State at 7-12. LOLOLOLOL. Ohio State has 12 Q1 games. (They are 8-4.) I mean come on, LOLOLOLOL.
 

lv20gt

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Is there going to be an NIT this year?

I believe I read where there will be an NIT this year but it will be smaller than usual (I believe 16 instead of 32) with none of the auto bids for the regular season winners of conferences that didn't go to the NCAAT.
 
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