Bracket Challenge

CuseJacket

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They took away the last 10 games metrics at least 5 yrs ago. They wanted to emphasize the teams whole resume, full year performance, not how you did in the most recent month. Basically, a win in December is worth as much as a win in March. That is also designed to try to get teams to play better opponents early in the season.

Understand what is not on the data sheets they get on all 351 teams.
First, there are no dates on the sheets and they are not arranged by when games were played. They were arranged based on RPI breaks, they are now organized by the 4 quadrants. The only record on the sheet is the teams overall record against Div 1 opponents. It is very easy for the committee based on the sheets to see who has played alot of games against better competition and how many of those games they won and lost.
Second, there is no conference information provided - that is also something that at least officially is not part of what they look at. You aren't competing against other members of your conference for a spot, you are competing against all teams with similar profiles. On the sheets they do not say what conference the team plays in or what the record or placement is in conference.

Since only the Big 12 plays round robin using conference records is not really useful as the schedules are not the same.

It's also very clear that this committee put alot of weight on playing games against strong competition and winning at least a few of them.
USC is a good example of this. It only won 2 games against teams in the RPI Top 50 - MTSU and NM ST and the only team they beat that made the Tourney was NM ST.
They didn't have any really bad losses, but they had 0 wins to hang their hat on.
Similar situation for St. Mary's who had the win at Gonzaga, but nothing else.
L'ville was probably somewhat similar - they had sweeps of VT and FSU - 2 lower end NCAA Tourney teams and nothing else. No bad losses, but I think Committee wanted to see them beat a higher quality team at least once = that UVA game likely cost them a bid.

I suspect Syracuse got the last spot because their collection of wins is a little better than L'ville and they beat them head to head.
Clemson, Miami and likely in the committee's eyes Buffalo were stronger wins at the top.
This is my take as well on how the bubble was decided.

In layman's terms, they looked for a group of schools who fit a certain profile of RPI, SOS, overall record, etc.

Then from that group, the committee selected the teams with the top wins. If you look at Oklahoma, Arizona St., and Syracuse compared to Louisville, USC, ND, MTSU, St. Mary's, etc., then it's the top wins that got the bump.

Maybe some added oomph for if the games were won on the road... even though that's supposedly factored into the quadrant system.

Still agree that ND > Cuse, and it's crazy to think that in the overall ranking Syracuse was one slot ahead of ND, which was the difference. ND beat Syracuse @ Syracuse without Colson and Farrell. They are a better team if they played today. But I think ultimately ND could only hang their hat on a win over Wichita St. from a pure resume perspective.
 

CuseJacket

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Tried to consolidate all NCAA tournament selection and match-up discussion to this thread... we had 3 separate convos going.
 

Peacone36

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Keep in mind conference performance is not considered - or even shown, to the committee.
There are no dates on the documents they get, there are no conference records or placement on the records they look at.
All they see are the overall records and how they performed against each quadrant.

The more I look at ND's resume the more i would not have put them in. They really don't have much in the way of strong wins and the losses to Ball St, Indiana and GT hurt.
They pass the eye test to me when you watch them play, but based on their resume sheet - it isn't strong.

Agreed about Notre Dame. I was fighting for them simply based on the amount of upside they would have in this tournament but you can only hang your hat on basically one win (Wichita State) for so long.
 

RamblinRed

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Both the St. Mary's and the L'ville nuggets are facts.

Also, as an FYI for those doing backets. Missou starting forward Jordan Bennett is suspended for their game against FSU due to a DWI arrest. Will more than likely be replaced with Michael Porter Jr. in the lineup.
If Missou beats FSU Barnett will be back for the 2nd round game.
 

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If they're only going by numbers, then I would like to see this become a blind placement. The school names should not be included in the data the committee gets. If it's all based on RPI and SOS, then it should be a blind selection.

Blind is good for a lot of reasons. Like how UNCheat is playing their first couple games in Charlotte - basically a home game.
 

Peacone36

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Blind is good for a lot of reasons. Like how UNCheat is playing their first couple games in Charlotte - basically a home game.

It makes sense. They were 1 win away from the 1 line which makes them the strongest #2 so the would get preferential treatment
 

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If any of you do brackets with family/friends, there is one that I think is pretty cool, unique, and keeps your attention a lot longer than if your final 4 is blown up in the first round.

Basically here is how it works - you have a snake draft - draw out of a hat to see what order you make picks in, then reverse it in round 2 and so on. So if you have 8 people participating, you draw 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8, and then whoever had 8 picks again and you go 8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1. What you are doing is drafting a team. You can pick any team out there, kind of like with fantasy football, except your universe is obviously limited to 64 teams (you get both of the teams in the play-in games). You keep going until all the teams are drafted.

Here is where it gets fun - each time one of your teams win, you get points equal to their seed. So if you pick Virginia - every time they win, you get 1 point. If you pick Kentucky, you get 5 points every time they win. If you pick Butler, you get 10 points every time they win.

Its an amazing thing, because there are always high seeded teams that win that nobody would have ever guessed. A #1 seed that wins it all only gets you 6 points. So if you can pick a team #7 or higher and they only win once, they still get you more points than that. :)

It makes for some interesting draft strategies when you look at the win history ESPNJacket just posted. For example, a #11 seed has a 37.1% chance of winning in round 1. But they have a 13.6% chance of winning TWICE and getting you 22 points based on past history.

So typically people's brackets are blown up by the sweet 16 - but most folks will have teams left because they were all drafted by somebody at least. Makes for a contest that can go late into the tournament where every point matters. You an also give bonus points for winning it all, and stuff like that if you want.
 

CuseJacket

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If any of you do brackets with family/friends, there is one that I think is pretty cool, unique, and keeps your attention a lot longer than if your final 4 is blown up in the first round.

Basically here is how it works - you have a snake draft - draw out of a hat to see what order you make picks in, then reverse it in round 2 and so on. So if you have 8 people participating, you draw 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8, and then whoever had 8 picks again and you go 8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1. What you are doing is drafting a team. You can pick any team out there, kind of like with fantasy football, except your universe is obviously limited to 64 teams (you get both of the teams in the play-in games). You keep going until all the teams are drafted.

Here is where it gets fun - each time one of your teams win, you get points equal to their seed. So if you pick Virginia - every time they win, you get 1 point. If you pick Kentucky, you get 5 points every time they win. If you pick Butler, you get 10 points every time they win.

Its an amazing thing, because there are always high seeded teams that win that nobody would have ever guessed. A #1 seed that wins it all only gets you 6 points. So if you can pick a team #7 or higher and they only win once, they still get you more points than that. :)

It makes for some interesting draft strategies when you look at the win history ESPNJacket just posted. For example, a #11 seed has a 37.1% chance of winning in round 1. But they have a 13.6% chance of winning TWICE and getting you 22 points based on past history.

So typically people's brackets are blown up by the sweet 16 - but most folks will have teams left because they were all drafted by somebody at least. Makes for a contest that can go late into the tournament where every point matters. You an also give bonus points for winning it all, and stuff like that if you want.
Similar to an upset pool, where you get points based on the difference in seeds. If you correctly pick a 12 over a 5, you get 1 point for the win + 7 points for the upset. Second round is worth 2 points for a win + difference in seeds if it's an upset. Still got to factor in the winning % odds vs. picking a team to go far. I find that more fun than the standard format.
 

jeffgt14

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If any of you do brackets with family/friends, there is one that I think is pretty cool, unique, and keeps your attention a lot longer than if your final 4 is blown up in the first round.

Basically here is how it works - you have a snake draft - draw out of a hat to see what order you make picks in, then reverse it in round 2 and so on. So if you have 8 people participating, you draw 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8, and then whoever had 8 picks again and you go 8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1. What you are doing is drafting a team. You can pick any team out there, kind of like with fantasy football, except your universe is obviously limited to 64 teams (you get both of the teams in the play-in games). You keep going until all the teams are drafted.

Here is where it gets fun - each time one of your teams win, you get points equal to their seed. So if you pick Virginia - every time they win, you get 1 point. If you pick Kentucky, you get 5 points every time they win. If you pick Butler, you get 10 points every time they win.

Its an amazing thing, because there are always high seeded teams that win that nobody would have ever guessed. A #1 seed that wins it all only gets you 6 points. So if you can pick a team #7 or higher and they only win once, they still get you more points than that. :)

It makes for some interesting draft strategies when you look at the win history ESPNJacket just posted. For example, a #11 seed has a 37.1% chance of winning in round 1. But they have a 13.6% chance of winning TWICE and getting you 22 points based on past history.

So typically people's brackets are blown up by the sweet 16 - but most folks will have teams left because they were all drafted by somebody at least. Makes for a contest that can go late into the tournament where every point matters. You an also give bonus points for winning it all, and stuff like that if you want.
So pick Loyola-Chicago for 2 games and you win it all? #MiamiBlows #RickBarnesTypicalPostseason
 

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So pick UL-L for 2 games and you win it all? #MiamiBlows #RickBarnesTypicalPostseason

I'm going from memory, but we typically do 4 of us in our family and the winner goes over 100 points. So 8 people you might need well over 50 points to win.
 

Peacone36

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We used to do an auction style and we would set a budget for your original entry fee and you would auction the teams off. Teams start paying at the elite 8 and increase each round. If everyone blows their budget before all the teams are gone it was cash and carry the rest of the way and the payouts increased.
 

jeffgt14

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Same thing happens to St. Mary's every year. Either at least get a shot at playing Gonzaga in your conference tournament or hope there aren't upsets in other mid major tournaments. I do agree there aren't 68 teams better than them though.
 
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