684Bee
Helluva Engineer
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- 1,660
One interesting note that I saw on another board.
Ken Pomeroy did some statistical work on winning probability with 10 seconds left and a 3-pt lead. Whether to foul or not.
it turns out it is basically a wash. in both cases - fouling or not fouling the win probability hangs around 93%. Just sort of the luck of the game if you end up in the 93% based on your decision.
Not sure that “statistical work” and “basically a wash” go together.
There’s a 51%/49% split on flipping a coin and it landing on tails versus heads. Is that basically a wash? I’m going with tails.