Analytics post mortem

[slugboy]

This can't be possible....Coach Key has not said a single word about a big transition.

That was bait, wasn’t it?

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

That was bait, wasn’t it?

 

[CuseJacket]

 

[slugboy]

In case you were wondering “how do they make that chart where one team has a 99% chance of winning” right before they lose?

The P-F-R Win Probability Model | Pro-Football-Reference.com

www.pro-football-reference.com

In that model, it starts with the Vegas spread; for us against NCST this week, we had “credit” for an 8.5 point lead before kickoff. From there, the formula adjusts the odds based on score and how much time is left in the game, then adjusts it again based on expected points based on down and distance and position.

It uses a normal distribution, which works well over a ton of games. Maybe a distribution with faster tails would work better for individual games.

Last night’s 30-29 game was nuts

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

We had a 94% chance of winning with 6 minutes left
Then they had a 95% chance of winning with 1:20 remaining
Then we had a 99% chance of winning with 20 seconds left
It dropped to 76% when they were setting up for the 58 yard FG attempt.

Plus that kick could have gone another 5-10 yards with the distance he had. Honestly if he would have given it just a bit more loft the wind was going left to right and the ball was moving toward the goal posts. The extra loft would have carried it into the goal post.

It is a game of inches! what a game

 

[g0lftime]

We had a 94% chance of winning with 6 minutes left
Then they had a 95% chance of winning with 1:20 remaining
Then we had a 99% chance of winning with 20 seconds left
It dropped to 76% when they were setting up for the 58 yard FG attempt.

Plus that kick could have gone another 5-10 yards with the distance he had. Honestly if he would have given it just a bit more loft the wind was going left to right and the ball was moving toward the goal posts. The extra loft would have carried it into the goal post.

It is a game of inches! what a game

On tv it started a little left of the post, started moving toward the upright, and then straightened out so it missed. I thought it was going to be good about half way.

 

[stinger78]

On tv it started a little left of the post, started moving toward the upright, and then straightened out so it missed. I thought it was going to be good about half way.

I saw something seem to move way left and then it almost went in. That was crazy!

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

if you saw the kicker toss grass into the air before the kick you could see it was blowing left to right with a decent clip. So he tried to start it a little to the left but pushed it farther than he planned. (Thankfully)

 

[GT33]

if you saw the kicker toss grass into the air before the kick you could see it was blowing left to right with a decent clip. So he tried to start it a little to the left but pushed it farther than he planned. (Thankfully)

Their kicker brought his own grass?

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

Their kicker brought his own grass?

actually looked like a pom pom strings but what ever

 

[stinger78]

Well kudos to him if he can plot windage gusting 10-15 mph and darn near hit a game winner from 58 yards out! At first, I thought he was going to be way wide and a bit short. Maybe my eyes were deceiving me because I lost the ball and then saw it just pass the left upright so close I didn’t know in or out till the refs signaled no good. Just a truly great effort on his part.

 

[LongforDodd]

Well kudos to him if he can plot windage gusting 10-15 mph and darn near hit a game winner from 58 yards out! At first, I thought he was going to be way wide and a bit short. Maybe my eyes were deceiving me because I lost the ball and then saw it just pass the left upright so close I didn’t know in or out till the refs signaled no good. Just a truly great effort on his part.

We’re lucky he didn’t take the more prudent route and go with the known of the prevailing wind that had been blowing all day from the north-northwest instead of the more unknown of the swirling winds that more than likely were different than what his Pom Pom grass was telling him at about midfield.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

if you saw the kicker toss grass into the air before the kick you could see it was blowing left to right with a decent clip. So he tried to start it a little to the left but pushed it farther than he planned. (Thankfully)

As a matter of fact he did that twice. I think he thought he had it. To tell the truth, I thought he had it too.

 

[bobongo]

As a matter of fact he did that twice. I think he thought he had it. To tell the truth, I thought he had it too.

Yeah, I thought the kick was going to veer eastward with the wind, and it did but not quite enough. The wind blew toward the northeast. The south to north vector of the wind was strong enough to modify the effect of the west to east vector just enough to keep it just west of the westernmost upright. Does that make sense?

 

[4shotB]

Yeah, I thought the kick was going to veer eastward with the wind, and it did but not quite enough. The wind blew toward the northeast. The south to north vector of the wind was strong enough to modify the effect of the west to east vector just enough to keep it just west of the westernmost upright. Does that make sense?

We don't really need to understand all of it. Just enough to pass the test. This will be on the test right?

 

[5277hike]

Why yes. Yes it does!

 

[bobongo]

We don't really need to understand all of it. Just enough to pass the test. This will be on the test right?

I'm sorry, I thought this was the test. Isn't this Physics 101?

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Yeah, I thought the kick was going to veer eastward with the wind, and it did but not quite enough. The wind blew toward the northeast. The south to north vector of the wind was strong enough to modify the effect of the west to east vector just enough to keep it just west of the westernmost upright. Does that make sense?

Sure it makes sense...I think. Anyway he missed it by a foot or so. Hell of a kick by the young man just a little off.

 

[Techfiend]

Like me in E-Mag, it was a pass/fail test. And also like me, he didn't pass, lol

 

[apatriot1776]

Not sure if this got posted elsewhere, but even if it did it’s sure as hell worth posting again.