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That was bait, wasn’t it?This can't be possible....Coach Key has not said a single word about a big transition.
Analytics post mortem
- Thread starter slugboy
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In case you were wondering “how do they make that chart where one team has a 99% chance of winning” right before they lose?
www.pro-football-reference.com
In that model, it starts with the Vegas spread; for us against NCST this week, we had “credit” for an 8.5 point lead before kickoff. From there, the formula adjusts the odds based on score and how much time is left in the game, then adjusts it again based on expected points based on down and distance and position.
It uses a normal distribution, which works well over a ton of games. Maybe a distribution with faster tails would work better for individual games.
Last night’s 30-29 game was nuts
The P-F-R Win Probability Model | Pro-Football-Reference.com
www.pro-football-reference.com
In that model, it starts with the Vegas spread; for us against NCST this week, we had “credit” for an 8.5 point lead before kickoff. From there, the formula adjusts the odds based on score and how much time is left in the game, then adjusts it again based on expected points based on down and distance and position.
It uses a normal distribution, which works well over a ton of games. Maybe a distribution with faster tails would work better for individual games.
Last night’s 30-29 game was nuts
MountainBuzzMan
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We had a 94% chance of winning with 6 minutes left
Then they had a 95% chance of winning with 1:20 remaining
Then we had a 99% chance of winning with 20 seconds left
It dropped to 76% when they were setting up for the 58 yard FG attempt.
Plus that kick could have gone another 5-10 yards with the distance he had. Honestly if he would have given it just a bit more loft the wind was going left to right and the ball was moving toward the goal posts. The extra loft would have carried it into the goal post.
It is a game of inches! what a game
Then they had a 95% chance of winning with 1:20 remaining
Then we had a 99% chance of winning with 20 seconds left
It dropped to 76% when they were setting up for the 58 yard FG attempt.
Plus that kick could have gone another 5-10 yards with the distance he had. Honestly if he would have given it just a bit more loft the wind was going left to right and the ball was moving toward the goal posts. The extra loft would have carried it into the goal post.
It is a game of inches! what a game