Analytics post mortem

ibeattetris

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TechPhi97

Ramblin' Wreck
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Location
Davidson, NC
I don't think the game was in our favor after the safety, but if we'd scored a TD on the next drive, it would have been. The kick-6 was brutal.

Again, maybe I'm missing where we run an RPO or play action, but EVERYONE is keying on the run against us. We should be feasting on play action passing. If we had an RPO game, we could burn everyone.

Also, as much as I like our QBs, I'd like to see more triple. The QB calls their own number a lot, and I'd like to see the ball go outside to a slot runner more often.
Agree with all of this. I said before the Syracuse game that I would make Haynes King beat me through the air. That is exactly what teams are doing, and I don't think we're adjusting to it. Even though King is playing really efficiently, we're still not capitalizing.
 

slugboy

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11,471

GTpdm

Helluva Engineer
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Location
Atlanta GA
Looking at pure W/L rankings, Louisville and Syracuse have bottom 100 strength of schedules right now. If they keep winning, it'll obviously improve, but as of right now they have beaten a whole bunch of nobodies.

45.​
Louisville 0.646122
3-1​
0.469183: 104
0​
0​
W: #74 Georgia Tech
46.​
Syracuse 0.645152
3-1​
0.467728: 105
0​
0​
W: #71 Ohio
No. They’ve each beaten two nobodies, plus a good-but-not-yet-great Georgia Tech.
 

slugboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
11,471
Here's a mid year check-in.

First, how's our QB doing? Freakin' awesome. The surprise to me is that Klubnik is having the year he's having.

ESPN QBR:


RKNameQBR
1​
Cam Ward MIA
91.2​
2​
Cade Klubnik CLEM
88.9​
3​
Haynes King GT
81.6​
4​
Kevin Jennings SMU
81​
5​
Tyler Shough LOU
79​
6​
Kyle McCord SYR
73.6​
7​
Fernando Mendoza CAL
65.9​
8​
Kyron Drones VT
63.7​
9​
Eli Holstein PITT
63.1​
10​
Hank Bachmeier WAKE
57.4​
11​
Thomas Castellanos BC
56.6​
12​
Jacolby Criswell UNC
54.6​
13​
Anthony Colandrea UVA
52.6​
14​
CJ Bailey NCSU
47.3​
15​
Maalik Murphy DUKE
45.5​
16​
DJ Uiagalelei FSU
34.2​
17​
Ashton Daniels STAN
28.8​

As far as this weekend is concerned, Criswell is doing just a bit better than Maalik Murphy. So far this year, he's not in "good" territory yet. I also don't think this stat shows what Castellanos can do.

King is third in QBR and third in Expected Points Added. For the argument of "he's just throwing dinky screen passes", you get rated this high for being MONEY.
 

slugboy

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11,471
Here are the FEI rankings--teams we've played, ACC teams, Ohio State (just because they're first), Georgia State (we played 'em), Colorado (by accident), Liberty (crazy high NIL, no schedule, and Jamey Chadwell), and Vandy (because they just beat Bama):

RkTeamRecFBSFEIColumn1OFEIRk2DFEIRk3SFEIRk4
1​
Ohio State5-05-0
1.49​
0.78​
1​
0.66​
2​
0.04​
35​
2​
Georgia4-13-1
1.3​
0.64​
4​
0.59​
5​
0.09​
13​
9​
Clemson4-14-1
0.83​
0.41​
11​
0.46​
15​
-0.01​
70​
10​
Notre Dame4-14-1
0.81​
0.19​
28​
0.67​
1​
-0.01​
79​
14​
Miami6-05-0
0.74​
0.5​
7​
0.23​
35​
0​
64​
22​
SMU5-14-1
0.55​
0.16​
32​
0.32​
24​
0.09​
12​
23​
Louisville3-22-2
0.55​
0.31​
16​
0.17​
45​
0.06​
22​
38​
Virginia Tech3-33-3
0.32​
0.08​
46​
0.18​
43​
0.07​
20​
42​
California3-22-2
0.28​
-0.01​
60​
0.29​
28​
-0.01​
77​
56​
Pittsburgh5-04-0
0.15​
-0.05​
66​
0.18​
41​
0.02​
46​
57
Georgia Tech4-23-2
0.15
0.27
19
-0.09
92
-0.05
106
58​
Virginia4-13-1
0.13​
-0.09​
73​
0.2​
38​
-0.01​
71​
59​
North Carolina3-32-3
0.1​
0.11​
40​
-0.04​
80​
0.03​
43​
60​
Colorado4-13-1
0.09​
-0.02​
62​
0.11​
54​
-0.01​
72​
62​
Duke5-14-1
0.04​
-0.21​
90​
0.25​
33​
0​
61​
63​
Florida State1-51-5
0.04​
-0.21​
91​
0.15​
50​
0.14​
1​
66​
Vanderbilt3-22-2
-0.01​
0.04​
53​
-0.1​
93​
0.06​
27​
67​
Boston College4-23-2
-0.02​
-0.02​
61​
0.1​
58​
-0.07​
118​
73​
Wake Forest2-31-3
-0.07​
0.09​
43​
-0.14​
99​
-0.01​
78​
74​
Liberty4-03-0
-0.07​
0.07​
48​
-0.06​
86​
-0.06​
111​
82​
NC State3-32-3
-0.21​
-0.33​
105​
0.13​
53​
0​
62​
86​
Stanford2-31-3
-0.27​
-0.32​
104​
-0.01​
70​
0.05​
32​
101​
Georgia State2-21-2
-0.48​
-0.2​
87​
-0.24​
108​
-0.05​
107​

By this ranking, we have the #19 offense, the #92 defense, and --ooof-- our special teams. We need to just kick the ball out of the back of the end zone, and fair catch a lot more kickoffs.

Our offense is a lot better than common perception.
 

slugboy

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Messages
11,471
If we look at offense, we're #4 in the ACC:

RkTeamRecFBSFEIColumn1OFEIRk2DFEIRk3SFEIRk4
14​
Miami6-05-0
0.74​
0.5​
7​
0.23​
35​
0​
64​
9​
Clemson4-14-1
0.83​
0.41​
11​
0.46​
15​
-0.01​
70​
23​
Louisville3-22-2
0.55​
0.31​
16​
0.17​
45​
0.06​
22​
57​
Georgia Tech4-23-2
0.15​
0.27​
19​
-0.09​
92​
-0.05​
106​
10​
Notre Dame4-14-1
0.81​
0.19​
28​
0.67​
1​
-0.01​
79​
22​
SMU5-14-1
0.55​
0.16​
32​
0.32​
24​
0.09​
12​
59​
North Carolina3-32-3
0.1​
0.11​
40​
-0.04​
80​
0.03​
43​
73​
Wake Forest2-31-3
-0.07​
0.09​
43​
-0.14​
99​
-0.01​
78​
38​
Virginia Tech3-33-3
0.32​
0.08​
46​
0.18​
43​
0.07​
20​
42​
California3-22-2
0.28​
-0.01​
60​
0.29​
28​
-0.01​
77​
67​
Boston College4-23-2
-0.02​
-0.02​
61​
0.1​
58​
-0.07​
118​
56​
Pittsburgh5-04-0
0.15​
-0.05​
66​
0.18​
41​
0.02​
46​
58​
Virginia4-13-1
0.13​
-0.09​
73​
0.2​
38​
-0.01​
71​
62​
Duke5-14-1
0.04​
-0.21​
90​
0.25​
33​
0​
61​
63​
Florida State1-51-5
0.04​
-0.21​
91​
0.15​
50​
0.14​
1​
86​
Stanford2-31-3
-0.27​
-0.32​
104​
-0.01​
70​
0.05​
32​
82​
NC State3-32-3
-0.21​
-0.33​
105​
0.13​
53​
0​
62​
 

slugboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
11,471
If we look at defense, we're near the bottom, with UNC and Wake:

RkTeamRecFBSFEIColumn1OFEIRk2DFEIRk3SFEIRk4
10​
Notre Dame4-14-1
0.81​
0.19​
28​
0.67​
1​
-0.01​
79​
9​
Clemson4-14-1
0.83​
0.41​
11​
0.46​
15​
-0.01​
70​
22​
SMU5-14-1
0.55​
0.16​
32​
0.32​
24​
0.09​
12​
42​
California3-22-2
0.28​
-0.01​
60​
0.29​
28​
-0.01​
77​
62​
Duke5-14-1
0.04​
-0.21​
90​
0.25​
33​
0​
61​
14​
Miami6-05-0
0.74​
0.5​
7​
0.23​
35​
0​
64​
58​
Virginia4-13-1
0.13​
-0.09​
73​
0.2​
38​
-0.01​
71​
56​
Pittsburgh5-04-0
0.15​
-0.05​
66​
0.18​
41​
0.02​
46​
38​
Virginia Tech3-33-3
0.32​
0.08​
46​
0.18​
43​
0.07​
20​
23​
Louisville3-22-2
0.55​
0.31​
16​
0.17​
45​
0.06​
22​
63​
Florida State1-51-5
0.04​
-0.21​
91​
0.15​
50​
0.14​
1​
82​
NC State3-32-3
-0.21​
-0.33​
105​
0.13​
53​
0​
62​
67​
Boston College4-23-2
-0.02​
-0.02​
61​
0.1​
58​
-0.07​
118​
86​
Stanford2-31-3
-0.27​
-0.32​
104​
-0.01​
70​
0.05​
32​
59​
North Carolina3-32-3
0.1​
0.11​
40​
-0.04​
80​
0.03​
43​
57​
Georgia Tech4-23-2
0.15​
0.27​
19​
-0.09​
92​
-0.05​
106​
73​
Wake Forest2-31-3
-0.07​
0.09​
43​
-0.14​
99​
-0.01​
78​

And, surprisingly, we aren't last in Special Teams (Hi, Boston College--and Notre Dame is somehow a neighbor)
RkTeamRecFBSFEIColumn1OFEIRk2DFEIRk3SFEIRk4
63​
Florida State1-51-5
0.04​
-0.21​
91​
0.15​
50​
0.14​
1​
22​
SMU5-14-1
0.55​
0.16​
32​
0.32​
24​
0.09​
12​
38​
Virginia Tech3-33-3
0.32​
0.08​
46​
0.18​
43​
0.07​
20​
23​
Louisville3-22-2
0.55​
0.31​
16​
0.17​
45​
0.06​
22​
86​
Stanford2-31-3
-0.27​
-0.32​
104​
-0.01​
70​
0.05​
32​
59​
North Carolina3-32-3
0.1​
0.11​
40​
-0.04​
80​
0.03​
43​
56​
Pittsburgh5-04-0
0.15​
-0.05​
66​
0.18​
41​
0.02​
46​
62​
Duke5-14-1
0.04​
-0.21​
90​
0.25​
33​
0​
61​
82​
NC State3-32-3
-0.21​
-0.33​
105​
0.13​
53​
0​
62​
14​
Miami6-05-0
0.74​
0.5​
7​
0.23​
35​
0​
64​
9​
Clemson4-14-1
0.83​
0.41​
11​
0.46​
15​
-0.01​
70​
58​
Virginia4-13-1
0.13​
-0.09​
73​
0.2​
38​
-0.01​
71​
42​
California3-22-2
0.28​
-0.01​
60​
0.29​
28​
-0.01​
77​
73​
Wake Forest2-31-3
-0.07​
0.09​
43​
-0.14​
99​
-0.01​
78​
10​
Notre Dame4-14-1
0.81​
0.19​
28​
0.67​
1​
-0.01​
79​
57​
Georgia Tech4-23-2
0.15​
0.27​
19​
-0.09​
92​
-0.05​
106​
67​
Boston College4-23-2
-0.02​
-0.02​
61​
0.1​
58​
-0.07​
118​
 

swampsting

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,868
We put up over 400 yards against Duke. But only 24 points.

I wouldn't call us good right now. We're OK. I don't think we're all that good. Good teams have a bigger margin for error. We have Kate Moss-slim to none. Beating an unbeaten Duke - which Vegas so disliked they made them a 10-point underdog to a two-loss team Saturday night - is now our best win. And it was a good win.
But after dominating so much of the first half, we were a play away from getting beat. And Murphy beating the blitz dang near beat us.
We had some questionable play-calling and some curious clock management, but the guys came through with a clutch drive to take the lead back and then throw a three-and-out at them. Guys found a way in the fourth quarter. That's encouraging.
 

slugboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
11,471
Did Syracuse get kicked out of the ACC?

I was fighting Excel earlier. I had them in the table when everything was a date.

The Louisville loss was understandable--we should have beaten Syracuse, though. Their defense isn't special, but we made it look special. Their offense is respectable, but we made it look way too good.

I shared some other data in the UNC preview thread--we run in a lot of situations where most teams wouldn't.

RkTeamRecFBSFEIColumn1OFEIRk2DFEIRk3SFEIRk4
9​
Clemson4-14-1
0.83​
0.41​
11​
0.46​
15​
-0.01​
70​
10​
Notre Dame4-14-1
0.81​
0.19​
28​
0.67​
1​
-0.01​
79​
14​
Miami6-05-0
0.74​
0.5​
7​
0.23​
35​
0​
64​
22​
SMU5-14-1
0.55​
0.16​
32​
0.32​
24​
0.09​
12​
23​
Louisville3-22-2
0.55​
0.31​
16​
0.17​
45​
0.06​
22​
38​
Virginia Tech3-33-3
0.32​
0.08​
46​
0.18​
43​
0.07​
20​
42​
California3-22-2
0.28​
-0.01​
60​
0.29​
28​
-0.01​
77​
56​
Pittsburgh5-04-0
0.15​
-0.05​
66​
0.18​
41​
0.02​
46​
57​
Georgia Tech4-23-2
0.15​
0.27​
19​
-0.09​
92​
-0.05​
106​
58​
Virginia4-13-1
0.13​
-0.09​
73​
0.2​
38​
-0.01​
71​
59​
North Carolina3-32-3
0.1​
0.11​
40​
-0.04​
80​
0.03​
43​
62​
Duke5-14-1
0.04​
-0.21​
90​
0.25​
33​
0​
61​
63​
Florida State1-51-5
0.04​
-0.21​
91​
0.15​
50​
0.14​
1​
67​
Boston College4-23-2
-0.02​
-0.02​
61​
0.1​
58​
-0.07​
118​
68​
Syracuse4-13-1
-0.03​
0.16​
33​
-0.04​
82​
-0.12​
131​
73​
Wake Forest2-31-3
-0.07​
0.09​
43​
-0.14​
99​
-0.01​
78​
82​
NC State3-32-3
-0.21​
-0.33​
105​
0.13​
53​
0​
62​
86​
Stanford2-31-3
-0.27​
-0.32​
104​
-0.01​
70​
0.05​
32​
 

roadkill

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,815
I was fighting Excel earlier. I had them in the table when everything was a date.

The Louisville loss was understandable--we should have beaten Syracuse, though. Their defense isn't special, but we made it look special. Their offense is respectable, but we made it look way too good.

I shared some other data in the UNC preview thread--we run in a lot of situations where most teams wouldn't.

RkTeamRecFBSFEIColumn1OFEIRk2DFEIRk3SFEIRk4
9​
Clemson4-14-1
0.83​
0.41​
11​
0.46​
15​
-0.01​
70​
10​
Notre Dame4-14-1
0.81​
0.19​
28​
0.67​
1​
-0.01​
79​
14​
Miami6-05-0
0.74​
0.5​
7​
0.23​
35​
0​
64​
22​
SMU5-14-1
0.55​
0.16​
32​
0.32​
24​
0.09​
12​
23​
Louisville3-22-2
0.55​
0.31​
16​
0.17​
45​
0.06​
22​
38​
Virginia Tech3-33-3
0.32​
0.08​
46​
0.18​
43​
0.07​
20​
42​
California3-22-2
0.28​
-0.01​
60​
0.29​
28​
-0.01​
77​
56​
Pittsburgh5-04-0
0.15​
-0.05​
66​
0.18​
41​
0.02​
46​
57​
Georgia Tech4-23-2
0.15​
0.27​
19​
-0.09​
92​
-0.05​
106​
58​
Virginia4-13-1
0.13​
-0.09​
73​
0.2​
38​
-0.01​
71​
59​
North Carolina3-32-3
0.1​
0.11​
40​
-0.04​
80​
0.03​
43​
62​
Duke5-14-1
0.04​
-0.21​
90​
0.25​
33​
0​
61​
63​
Florida State1-51-5
0.04​
-0.21​
91​
0.15​
50​
0.14​
1​
67​
Boston College4-23-2
-0.02​
-0.02​
61​
0.1​
58​
-0.07​
118​
68​
Syracuse4-13-1
-0.03​
0.16​
33​
-0.04​
82​
-0.12​
131​
73​
Wake Forest2-31-3
-0.07​
0.09​
43​
-0.14​
99​
-0.01​
78​
82​
NC State3-32-3
-0.21​
-0.33​
105​
0.13​
53​
0​
62​
86​
Stanford2-31-3
-0.27​
-0.32​
104​
-0.01​
70​
0.05​
32​
Is FEI still influenced by its pre-season preloaded stats? I mean, why isn't FSU closer to the bottom of the ACC?
 

roadkill

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,815
We put up over 400 yards against Duke. But only 24 points.

I wouldn't call us good right now. We're OK. I don't think we're all that good. Good teams have a bigger margin for error. We have Kate Moss-slim to none. Beating an unbeaten Duke - which Vegas so disliked they made them a 10-point underdog to a two-loss team Saturday night - is now our best win. And it was a good win.
But after dominating so much of the first half, we were a play away from getting beat. And Murphy beating the blitz dang near beat us.
We had some questionable play-calling and some curious clock management, but the guys came through with a clutch drive to take the lead back and then throw a three-and-out at them. Guys found a way in the fourth quarter. That's encouraging.
Our “ok” offense scored the most points and gained the most yards against the 5th-ranked defense (ranked after their loss to us) in the ACC. And except for UNC, no other team Duke played came close to the yards we put up. Our special teams shoulder a good portion of the blame for our scoring not keeping pace with our yardage. I think an offense that is statistically in the upper quartile of most objective measurements should be considered “good”.

Now, if you are talking about the team as a whole, I completely agree with you. We are a key play/penalty or 2 from being either 6-0 or 2-4.
 

slugboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
11,471
Is FEI still influenced by its pre-season preloaded stats? I mean, why isn't FSU closer to the bottom of the ACC?

At this point in the season, last year's stats should be cleaned out.

Here's Massey's Ratings, though--always just for this season. FSU is 14th out of 17. Offense is horrid.

TeamRecordΔRatPwrOffDefHFASoSSSFEWEL
Miami FL Atlantic Coast6-0 1.0001 8.533 65.992 63.5610 29.682.0210 53.819 56.893.92.1
Clemson Atlantic Coast4-1 0.8002 8.521 70.801 64.062 33.992.082 59.946 58.765.411.59
Pittsburgh Atlantic Coast5-0 1.00013 8.345 62.255 60.3312 29.172.112 53.007 58.243.583.42
SMU Atlantic Coast5-1 0.83314 8.314 65.783 62.528 30.512.184 56.3910 56.784.231.77
Louisville Atlantic Coast3-2 0.600-25 8.132 67.354 60.623 33.982.233 57.532 60.484.332.67
Duke Atlantic Coast5-1 0.8336 7.8911 58.3116 53.464 32.102.117 48.3517 54.782.623.38
Georgia Tech Atlantic Coast4-2 0.66727 7.878 60.517 57.279 30.502.029 53.934 59.962.253.75
Virginia Atlantic Coast4-1 0.80028 7.8413 57.0113 54.7411 29.532.1415 52.133 60.431.935.07
California Atlantic Coast3-2 0.600-29 7.829 60.189 56.417 31.022.136 55.0712 56.473.973.03
Boston College Atlantic Coast4-2 0.667-210 7.8112 57.4115 53.486 31.192.17 54.658 58.152.363.64
Syracuse Atlantic Coast4-1 0.800211 7.7014 55.7710 56.2815 26.742.1916 49.0115 54.882.944.06
Virginia Tech Atlantic Coast3-3 0.500212 7.697 61.328 57.165 31.402.148 54.5611 56.713.382.62
North Carolina Atlantic Coast3-3 0.500-213 7.5910 59.056 58.7613 27.542.1911 53.4014 55.503.222.78
Florida St Atlantic Coast1-5 0.167114 7.506 61.4314 54.031 34.652.11 60.821 60.533.042.96
NC State Atlantic Coast3-3 0.500-315 7.4415 55.5712 55.5114 27.312.214 52.2516 54.872.713.29
Stanford Atlantic Coast2-3 0.40016 7.2917 51.2617 51.8216 26.692.15 55.465 59.361.765.24
Wake Forest Atlantic Coast2-3 0.40017 7.2816 54.1811 55.9517 25.482.1713 52.5013 56.242.74.3
 

slugboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
11,471
Kelly Ford projections--the Duke win was big. Last week, the odds were that we wouldn't go bowling. This week, odds look very good. Winning over UNC would be HUGE


1728323950446.png


Very good offense (poor other stuff)

1728324064877.png


Overall, he's got us at #49 (Duke didn't really change this ranking much)

1728324109081.png
 

roadkill

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,815
Kelly Ford projections--the Duke win was big. Last week, the odds were that we wouldn't go bowling. This week, odds look very good. Winning over UNC would be HUGE


View attachment 16956

Very good offense (poor other stuff)

View attachment 16957

Overall, he's got us at #49 (Duke didn't really change this ranking much)

View attachment 16958
Our remaining games include 3 very good teams, 2 currently ranked below us, and VT.

3-3 VT, whose only wins are against Old Dominion, Marshall, and arguably the worst team in the ACC, seems overranked. Granted, they took Miami to the wire, but Miami has also looked somewhat overrated in their last two games. VT’s upcoming game against BC could be a better barometer of just how good they are. BC has looked like a very good team until last weekend’s loss to the Cavaliers.
 

iceeater1969

Helluva Engineer
Messages
9,625
I think that is just who he is as a QB. A good college QB because he can do a lot of things well but he is not an extremely accurate thrower. He is still a good college QB!
Maybe he should portal out to get to a pass happy team so he can get a shot.
 

ibeattetris

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,604
We put up over 400 yards against Duke. But only 24 points.
We put up those 24 points in 8 drives.
Our ninth drive was 8 play 3:40 and left them no time on the clock.
3 points per drive is currently top 25. If you want to count the final drive that 2.67 which isn’t terrible.
 
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