Analytics post mortem

[awbuzz]

May be a twofold thing: first, he may be consciously trying to hold down the INTs, and second perhaps knowing he can run gives himself extra “margin” to accomplish the first. Bottom line is we still cannot afford to give away possessions.

Bottom line is that a sack is usually better than an interception. Yes I know an exception to that would be if it's 4th and whatever and an interception is thrown downfield and not run back.

 

[GT33]

On the play he got Rutherford massacred he released very late and underthrew the ball. It has been a habit with him. Maybe it didn’t bother me as much last year because we finally had a stable, competent QB but what’s keeping him from reaching the next level of performance is timing and placement of his throws.

 

[stinger78]

On the play he got Rutherford massacred he released very late and underthrew the ball. It has been a habit with him. Maybe it didn’t bother me as much last year because we finally had a stable, competent QB but what’s keeping him from reaching the next level of performance is timing and placement of his throws.

Oh, I agree wholeheartedly. He needs to work in his timing. It could also be affected by his throwing motion. He used to have a serious windup, but Wienke has shortened that considerably.

 

[CuseJacket]

 

[roadkill]

Interestingly, only one of the teams without a sack has already played 4 games.

Rutgers has only played 2.

 

[CuseJacket]

 

[slugboy]

It's Sunday. Let's look at the Louisville game quickly.

The odds were on Louisville's side most of the game. Scoring first helped, but allowing them to score 17 "unanswered" points was not good. Momentum shifted our way a few times--stopping them at the beginning of the second half, getting a safety and the ball--while a TD fumble recovery and a blocked kick for a TD were brutal against us.

The safety was huge for us. So was the pass interference that was also botched coverage for a TD, but for them.

Time	Offense	Play Description	EPA	WP%	WPA
Q4 11:23	Louisville	(1st & 10 at LOU 1) Tyler Shough run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETY - GT 19, LOU 24	-2.59	90.0%	-31.4%
Q3 1:43	Louisville	(2nd & 10 at LOU 43) Tyler Shough pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 57 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) - GT 17, LOU 24	5.28	65.2%	20.2%
Q4 7:05	GT	(Kickoff at LOU 35) Nick Keller kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - GT 19, LOU 45 This is the FG block, scoop, and score, but Game on Paper doesn't show it correctly.	0.00	16.2%	-15.3%
Q2 0:04	GT	(4th & Goal at LOU 1) Jamal Haynes run for 1 yd for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) - GT 14, LOU 17	3.63	17.5%	14.0%
Q2 11:20	Louisville	(2nd & 10 at GT 37) Tyler Shough pass complete to Chris Bell for 37 yds for a TD (Brock Travelstead KICK) - GT 7, LOU 14	3.92	71.0%	11.2%
Q1 2:09	GT	(1st & 10 at GT 25) Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 45 yds to the LOU 30 for a 1ST down - GT 7, LOU 7	3.09	34.4%	11.0%
Q4 14:21	GT	(2nd & 12 at LOU 35) Haynes King run for 26 yds to the LOU 9 for a 1ST down - GT 17, LOU 24	3.06	18.8%	10.1%
Q1 2:11	GT	(3rd & 7 at GT 9) Ramon Puryear 0 Yd Fumble Return (Brock Travelstead Kick) - GT 7, LOU 7	-6.63	45.9%	-9.8%
Q2 0:32	GT	(2nd & 14 at GT 46) Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 51 yds to the LOU 3 for a 1ST down - GT 7, LOU 17	4.08	10.0%	8.7%
Q3 0:28	GT	(2nd & 10 at 50) Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 17 yds to the LOU 33 for a 1ST down - GT 17, LOU 24	2.00	16.6%	8.7%

We basically started shooting ourselves in the foot after the safety.

The run game didn't work for either team, while the passing game did:

Overall	GT	Louisville
EPA/Play	-0.03 41st %ile	0.13 70th %ile
Success Rate	41% 51st %ile	37% 31st %ile
Yards/Play	6.13 59th %ile	7.22 83rd %ile
EPA/Dropback	0.57 93rd %ile	0.97 99th %ile
EPA/Rush	-0.38 5th %ile	-0.47 3rd %ile
Yards/Dropback	9.75 90th %ile	14.16 99th %ile
Explosive Play Rate	10% 70th %ile	9% 59th %ile
3rd Down Success Rate	22% 7th %ile	27% 14th %ile
Red Zone Success Rate	29% 27th %ile	25% 23rd %ile
Def Run Stuff Rate	33% 59th %ile	40% 86th %ile
Havoc Rate	9% 43rd %ile	9% 44th %ile

Overall, we hurt ourselves in all three phases of the game. The blocked kick for a TD probably overcame anything else on special teams.
Totals may not add up due to plays fitting in multiple categories (e.g. a penalty on a punt).

Expected Points	GT	Louisville
Total Plays	78	54
Total EPA	-4.56	4.31
Offensive EPA	-1.90	5.75
Special Teams EPA	-1.17	-1.18
Penalty EPA	-1.49	-0.27

One big difference is that Brohm saw that passing was working, so he did a lot of it--even though Louisville is supposed to be a running team. We didn't adjust--the fact that we're 51% rushing calls even though we were playing catchup shows how strongly committed to the run we were

Production	GT	Louisville
Scrimmage Plays	68	46
Yards	417	332
Yards/Play	6.13	7.22
EPA	-1.90	5.75
EPA/Play	-0.03	0.13
Passes	32 (47%)	19 (41%)
Yards	312	269
Yards/Play	9.75	14.16
EPA	18.17	18.50
EPA/Play	0.57	0.97
Rushes	35 (51%)	27 (59%)
Yards	105	63
Yards/Play	3.00	2.62
EPA	-13.44	-12.75
EPA/Play	-0.38	-0.47

 

[stinger78]

Such a strong commitment to the run cost us the game, IMPO.

 

[roadkill]

My thoughts:

If you subtract the 25% odds granted to Louisville just for being Louisville, the game was close to even or in our favor into the fourth until the kick-6.

It's obvious from the abysmal EPA/Rush, but if you subtract Jamal's nice 17-yard run from his 12 carries, the other 11 netted 0.7 yards/carry. It would be better to state it as 2 feet/carry. I realize that some were for a loss which debits the total, but my goodness that's a bad stat.

It's reasonable to expect that a couple of runs will get stuffed, but virtually all of them? As others have noted, why stubbornly keep doing what isn't working?

 

[slugboy]

Here are some overall stats--I'm not sure if this includes Louisville yet--from GameOnPaper's GT 2024 Team Profile.

There's an explanation of the radar graphs from Bill Connelly's 2018 GT Preseason Preview: https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...ia-tech-football-2018-preview-schedule-roster. The outer ring is 100% (basically #1 in your category), while the inner origin is tied for 132nd in that category.

On offense, we pass really well. We also run pretty well, but a lot of that is from big gain plays. We're not consistently getting 3 yards a carry, but we're playing like that's the case. We're explosive with runs, but it's feast or famine, and we're "famining" a lot in our two losses.

We have a very good offense, but it's got two flaws--we don't have the "Hogs" from the 1986 Washington Redskins (no offense, guys). We can't lean and push for three yards at a time. Syracuse and Louisville figured that out--but it seems like we haven't understood it yet. We also give up some tackles for loss and turnovers that we need to overcome.

Last year, we were better on line yards, but worse overall:

Now, the defensive side. <loud sigh>

We're about average on yards per dropback. Last year, we were terrible through the air and on the ground. Now, we're not so bad in rushing defense, but we get torched through the air. And by torched, I mean we're one of the worst in FBS at giving up big plays, especially in the passing game. Overall, this looks like a below-average defense. FSU was a great matchup for us--they needed to run, and we were ready to stop the run. We deeply need to fix our pass defense.

Letting teams pick up 3rd and forever is a problem. Giving up too much on 1st down is a problem. There's a problem with the pass rush, but the coverage isn't there, either.

This year, we're 13th in adjusted EPA for offense (we have a good offense), and 99th in defense (that's bad). Last year, we were 42nd on offense and 88th on defense. So, based on the stats, our defense is yielding overall worse results. We're much better against the run, but we're getting hit hard in the passing game. (Some of that is that we were so bad on defense that teams could just take advantage of us either way last year).

By the way, here's our defense from three years ago (you DON'T want to see our offense from three years ago--it was TERRIBLE). Big problem was that we let the other team stay ahead of the chains.

Hopefully, the bye week is a chance for us to fix things.

EDIT: Add the good parts of our 2022 defense to the good parts of our 2024 defense, and we're undefeated.

 

[BurdellJacket]

On the play he got Rutherford massacred he released very late and underthrew the ball. It has been a habit with him. Maybe it didn’t bother me as much last year because we finally had a stable, competent QB but what’s keeping him from reaching the next level of performance is timing and placement of his throws.

Well, I'd say he's just about reached "the next level of performance" with averages of 74% completion, 255 ypg, with 6 td's, 1 int and no sacks in 5 games.

 

[Root4GT]

Oh, I agree wholeheartedly. He needs to work in his timing. It could also be affected by his throwing motion. He used to have a serious windup, but Wienke has shortened that considerably.

I think that is just who he is as a QB. A good college QB because he can do a lot of things well but he is not an extremely accurate thrower. He is still a good college QB!

 

[cpf2001]

We're not consistently getting 3 yards a carry, but we're playing like that's the case

This neatly sums up why it’s so frustrating. It’s not just a second-guessing after the fact, it’s a pattern.

 

[slugboy]

My thoughts:

If you subtract the 25% odds granted to Louisville just for being Louisville, the game was close to even or in our favor into the fourth until the kick-6.

It's obvious from the abysmal EPA/Rush, but if you subtract Jamal's nice 17-yard run from his 12 carries, the other 11 netted 0.7 yards/carry. It would be better to state it as 2 feet/carry. I realize that some were for a loss which debits the total, but my goodness that's a bad stat.

It's reasonable to expect that a couple of runs will get stuffed, but virtually all of them? As others have noted, why stubbornly keep doing what isn't working?

I don't think the game was in our favor after the safety, but if we'd scored a TD on the next drive, it would have been. The kick-6 was brutal.

Again, maybe I'm missing where we run an RPO or play action, but EVERYONE is keying on the run against us. We should be feasting on play action passing. If we had an RPO game, we could burn everyone.

Also, as much as I like our QBs, I'd like to see more triple. The QB calls their own number a lot, and I'd like to see the ball go outside to a slot runner more often.

 

[GT33]

Well, I'd say he's just about reached "the next level of performance" with averages of 74% completion, 255 ypg, with 6 td's, 1 int and no sacks in 5 games.

His completion percentage is not the issue. It's the timing and placement of his downfield throws. Underthrows, late releases, not leading the receiver are "the next level". Frankly I didn't think arm strength was going to limit him, but he's either losing distance due to a release issue or he just doesn't have it.

Again, he's a very good college QB, he's just not that word that begins with E.

 

[roadkill]

I don't think the game was in our favor after the safety, but if we'd scored a TD on the next drive, it would have been. The kick-6 was brutal.

Again, maybe I'm missing where we run an RPO or play action, but EVERYONE is keying on the run against us. We should be feasting on play action passing. If we had an RPO game, we could burn everyone.

Also, as much as I like our QBs, I'd like to see more triple. The QB calls their own number a lot, and I'd like to see the ball go outside to a slot runner more often.

Your comment brings to mind a general concern. Rather than adding things to our offensive toolbox that could address our shortfalls and exploit other teams’ defensive tactics, Key’s response after losses is to focus on “fixing” execution problems on our core plays. When we face superior talent, we can’t keep doing the same things and expecting them to work.

I wonder if our success in the FSU game is part of the problem.

 

[CuseJacket]

 

[stinger78]

Your comment brings to mind a general concern. Rather than adding things to our offensive toolbox that could address our shortfalls and exploit other teams’ defensive tactics, Key’s response after losses is to focus on “fixing” execution problems on our core plays. When we face superior talent, we can’t keep doing the same things and expecting them to work.

I wonder if our success in the FSU game is part of the problem.

At some point we need to accept that we beat a deeply flawed FSU team. They are flawed most notably in two ways: their QB and their mentality. You can replace a QB, but you cannot just replace a mentality.

 

[ramblineck]

At some point we need to accept that we beat a deeply flawed FSU team. They are flawed most notably in two ways: their QB and their mentality. You can replace a QB, but you cannot just replace a mentality.

the 3 opponents we beat have a combined 3 wins...

 

[stinger78]

the 3 opponents we beat have a combined 3 wins...

OTOH, Syracuse and Louisville are both 3-1, total 6-2.