ACCT - Pittsburgh - 3/7 7PM

[KeystoneJacket]

Pitt is listed as the favorite (-1.5) as of now. I hate playing a team we just beat a week ago and we haven't fared well in revenge games this season.

Does the team have a last wind in them to beat Pitt and UVA to get back on the bubble or has a long season caught up to them? Is Pitt going to give it a go or have they packed it in already?

Other games tomorrow are NC State vs. Clemson (-5.5) at 12 with Boston College vs. Wake (-10.5) to follow.

 

[Peacone36]

We are so bad on the road.

Haven't looked at Jax' splits on the road lately but he really likes sleeping in his own bed. To the tune of about 5ppg difference last I checked.

Q needs to get it together if we have any shot. He must be reading this board lately because he's clearly shaken.

 

[ESPNjacket]

We are so bad on the road.

ACC road wins:

GT 1 at NC State
Pitt 1 at BC

Not exactly the battle of the road warriors.

 

[Peacone36]

ACC road wins:

GT 1 at NC State
Pitt 1 at BC

Not exactly the battle of the road warriors.

I didn't say they were good. They are experienced though

 

[ESPNjacket]

I didn't say they were good. They are experienced though

I didn't imply you did. I was adding facts to the discussion.

Pitt also got worse as the season progressed, particularly on offense. Their offensive efficiency was 13th in the ACC in conference games, despite being 47th overall for the full season.

 

[Peacone36]

I didn't imply you did. I was adding facts to the discussion.

Pitt also got worse as the season progressed, particularly on offense. Their offensive efficiency was 13th in the ACC in conference games, despite being 47th overall for the full season.

4 seniors is probably the scariest part for me.

 

[YlJacket]

In this case I think the seniors have moved more toward shutting down with the new coach than rising up for their last game. I am actually a little surprised they are favored given a 4 game losing streak and bad end of year mojo but haven't looked at KP or Sagrain.

 

[ESPNjacket]

In this case I think the seniors have moved more toward shutting down with the new coach than rising up for their last game. I am actually a little surprised they are favored given a 4 game losing streak and bad end of year mojo but haven't looked at KP or Sagrain.

Kenpom's model has Pitt by 1. The models Vegas uses are quite similar to KP but I figured Vegas would move it to even because of the shutting down you mentioned in Pitt lately.

Vegas has been shading our lines against us the last few games. They must think we've run out of gas or people have figured out how to stop the 2.5 man offense.

 

[RyanS12]

I ecspect to see some flat, ugly basketball. Neither team is very good away from home and there isn't going to be much of a crowd to push either team. We have to hit FT's. Can't miss a rediculous amount of layups and we have to get out on the 3 PT line and defend. We give up way to many open looks. I think they know what's still at steak. I just hope they don't come out and **** the bedlike they did at Syracuse.

 

[slugboy]

On the plus side, it's a road game for almost everyone--maybe not Syracuse. Outside of the top four teams, is anyone really "good" on the road?

 

[ramblinwreck1378]

I ecspect to see some flat, ugly basketball. Neither team is very good away from home and there isn't going to be much of a crowd to push either team. We have to hit FT's. Can't miss a rediculous amount of layups and we have to get out on the 3 PT line and defend. We give up way to many open looks. I think they know what's still at steak. I just hope they don't come out and **** the bedlike they did at Syracuse.

I don't know if "****(ting) the bed" is really a fair description to use when describing Saturday's game. We were down 12 at half time, closed it to 3 to start the second half and were within 5 with 12 to go.

I agree we need to defend the 3 ball a little better. Pitt really lacks any true post players - I expect us to play a little more man than we normally do, especially early to avoid them getting into any sort of rhythm. As I said in another thread, I don't really like the way this has set up for us at all. Hopefully we'll start to shoot the ball a little better (esp from deep) and give ourselves a little more margin for error defensively.

 

[CuseJacket]

On the plus side, it's a road game for almost everyone--maybe not Syracuse. Outside of the top four teams, is anyone really "good" on the road?

Hopefully. Though the Carrier Dome is 4+ hours away, NYC obviously has a ton of alums. MSG was always pro-Cuse during the northeast-centric conference tourney.

Might only be for one day though. 'Cuse has won 2 games away from the Dome this year. 'Cuse was curb-stomped by South Carolina in November at Barclays in front a 90%+ pro-Syracuse contingent. And the Orange have yet to win an ACCT game...

 

[CuseJacket]

I didn't imply you did. I was adding facts to the discussion.

Pitt also got worse as the season progressed, particularly on offense. Their offensive efficiency was 13th in the ACC in conference games, despite being 47th overall for the full season.

Kenpom's model has Pitt by 1. The models Vegas uses are quite similar to KP but I figured Vegas would move it to even because of the shutting down you mentioned in Pitt lately.

Vegas has been shading our lines against us the last few games. They must think we've run out of gas or people have figured out how to stop the 2.5 man offense.

Agree with this.

That said, in the month of February, Pitt was a 5 point favorite at home to VT and 6 point dog to FSU. We were bigger underdogs to both teams earlier in the season (while accounting for the home/away differential for us playing at VT).

This year Pitt's beaten @Maryland, @Marquette, UVA, FSU, Syracuse. That list looks similar/about as strong as our top wins, maybe moreso than we want to think. They're better than a lot here give them credit for, imo.

 

[Peacone36]

Agree with this.

That said, in the month of February, Pitt was a 5 point favorite at home to VT and 6 point dog to FSU. We were bigger underdogs to both teams earlier in the season (while accounting for the home/away differential for us playing at VT).

This year Pitt's beaten @Maryland, @Marquette, UVA, FSU, Syracuse. That list looks similar/about as strong as our top wins, maybe moreso than we want to think. They're better than a lot here give them credit for, imo.

They got some guys that can put points up in a hurry. Their lack of a PG hurts them a lot as most of the guys they play like to try and score.

 

[awbuzz]

Link

It's GAME DAY (... okay for MBB and not Football) but still we have an important (aren't they all???) game tonight.

Let's get a "W" and keep talk alive about a Big Dance Invite!

 

[ZacketJacket]

Looks like we are 1.5pt favorites right now.

Neither of us have been very good away from home, so I'm not setting any expectations for us. Pitt does have the advantage of already having played some neutral site games -- at least I guess that's an advantage.

Even if we pull the win, I don't like how we match up against UVA. I think we would be in a better position to win 2-3 games if we had gotten the #10 seeding rather than Wake.

I think we get the win tonight but get our tickets to the NIT printed tomorrow.

 

[ESPNjacket]

Looks like we are 1.5pt favorites right now.

Pitt is favored by 1.5 everywhere I have looked.

 

[MWBATL]

I think we get the win tonight but get our tickets to the NIT printed tomorrow.

Unfortunately, I agree......

 

[RamblinCharger]

I don't feel good about a win tonight. Unfortunately we don't look very good when we leave Atlanta, and we just played this team. We didn't exactly blow them out at home. I hope we pull out a win tonight but I'm not expecting it. I think our lack of talent and shallow bench has caught up with us. Still incredible that we've won 17 games though.

 

[slugboy]

Looks like we are 1.5pt favorites right now.

Neither of us have been very good away from home, so I'm not setting any expectations for us. Pitt does have the advantage of already having played some neutral site games -- at least I guess that's an advantage.

Even if we pull the win, I don't like how we match up against UVA. I think we would be in a better position to win 2-3 games if we had gotten the #10 seeding rather than Wake.

I think we get the win tonight but get our tickets to the NIT printed tomorrow.

If we get past Pitt, I wouldn't be shocked by a UVa upset. Probably still NIT.

Pitt is favored by 1.5 everywhere I have looked.

Yes, but HERE we're 1.5 point favorites.