ACC v Ga Tech

[Deleted member 2897]

I hear you but if we're winning then why do we care at all? Not sure that a schedule change will change the outcome of our season.

The data unquestionably shows large differences in our winning percentages in these games (we are undefeated in games where we have a bye and the other team doesn't, and our winning percentage is 50% higher when we don't have to face a team coming off a bye but we don't). So why would we not care?

 

[kg01]

I hear you but if we're winning then why do we care at all? Not sure that a schedule change will change the outcome of our season.

But we're winning 'in spite of'. Why should we have to face challenges in addition to those faced by those against whom we are competing?

It's like running 110m hurdles against guys who're simply running the 100m (no hurdles). If we win, excellent. Certainly something about which we should have a tremendous sense of pride. However ... why? Give us all the same hurdles (or as close to the same hurdles that are within the conference's control) or give us all no hurdles.

 

[takethepoints]

"Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action"
- Auric Goldfinger

He (Ian Fleming, actually) was right.

 

[bke1984]

"I have read plenty of analysis concluding having a bye week is no significant advantage. Perhaps ACC schedulers lean that way."

I am not sure the studies I've seen (including that one) are doing their research the right way. Did you see my posts on another thread about this? I went back the last 5 years, and when Tech had a bye week in ACC play but the other team didn't (3 times), we went 3-0. We went 13-8 in the other ACC games in those 3 years otherwise. (ie, we were 16-8 overall those 3 years in ACC play) That is an undeniable difference, 3-0 versus 13-8.

I also went back and looked at how many times our ACC opponent had a bye week before playing us when we didn't. There were 7 of those. (So already I hope you see the trend, 7 versus 3. Also there were a few times where we both had a bye week.) We went 3-4 those 7 games. Those 7 games were exclusively in 2016, 2014, 2013, and 2012. Our record in ACC play outside of those 7 games was 17-8. Again, a significant difference - our winning percentage was 58% higher (0.680 versus 0.428).

I'm not going to spend hours digging into those other studies further to try and unravel what they may have missed or erred on. All I care right now is the inequity for Tech. And the historical numbers are way beyond undeniable.

Your sample size is pretty small to be drawing conclusions. If the ball had bounced differently in one of those games the percentages change significantly...the 3-0 for instance...say we lose one and go to 2-1...that means we won 67% instead of 100%...

To really draw conclusions about whether the BYE week matters or not I think you'd have to look at the results from games where one team had a BYE and the other didn't for all of FBS for like 5 years (probably even longer). Then you could draw conclusions.

 

[redmule]

Would you want a football coach that is not raising hell about everything that might negatively affect his team? CPJ has taken ownership of this team and this program, and he is protecting it like a rabid wolf. IMHO, he wants a National Championship terribly and he knows the only place he can win it is here at GT. He is after every advantage. Why do you think rat-face at Duke gets so many calls. He complains about the officiating all the time especially when they are winning. CPJ has the most seniority of any coach in the ACC and has built a solid, clean program. He should get more respect from the league. Besides, nothing fires up a football team like thinking somebody is trying to cheat them out of something. He probably doesn't want to attack Clemson directly before next year's game as that could backfire on him. But everybody hates the Bureaucrats in NC, and they make a perfect villain to get us fired up for Clemson next year. Preach on, Paul.

 

[collegeballfan]

The treatment GT gets from the ACC is why South Carolina left the ACC in 1971.

And why Georgia Tech should have bolted for the Big Ten years ago.

 

[MikeJackets]

And why Georgia Tech should have bolted for the Big Ten years ago.

 

[Coloradojacket]

Look, other than the rest a team gets I don't think it truly matters about the bye weeks. The only schedule that looks fishy is Duke. They get a bye week and then play Army. They will be tuned up for us. Of course that being said we should beat them this year. Fact is every team on our schedule spends 30% of Summer practice preparing for us. Hell some even hire consultants to stop us. All that being said it continues to bring to light how effective CPJ and his offense is. May it stay at Tech forever.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Your sample size is pretty small to be drawing conclusions. If the ball had bounced differently in one of those games the percentages change significantly...the 3-0 for instance...say we lose one and go to 2-1...that means we won 67% instead of 100%...

To really draw conclusions about whether the BYE week matters or not I think you'd have to look at the results from games where one team had a BYE and the other didn't for all of FBS for like 5 years (probably even longer). Then you could draw conclusions.

That's a valid point. I mean, if I just changed the data, the data would all be different.

In all seriousness, I get your point, I'm only looking at 10 games. But there is no need to overcomplicate things. Why do we have a bye week at all? If a bye week is helpful at all for any reason, then that's all we need to know. Why don't we demand that all games be played at home? Yes I'm veering off topic again. But honestly, I think everyone would be in complete 100% agreement that a team just getting a week off at all in the season is a good thing. So if a team having a week off is a good thing, then there is no reason to give some teams a lot of that and other teams not much at all. For a bunch of years in a row. The data backs this up and its not even close. Frankly, I don't really care how bye weeks affect a team in the Mountain West. I don't really care how it affects a team in the ACC. I care how it affects us. Even if there were thousands of datapoints nationwide that were all in unison but we were an outlier, I would say if for no other reason than superstition we should do what's best for us.

 

[cuttysark]

But here's what bolsters the position of CPJ: Did anyone even care about bye weeks under CCG? Nope!

However, now with CPJ's spread option offense that ANNOYS everyone in the ACC who has to match up against GT, they mollify them with an open date before they play the Yellow Jackets. That is wrong on every level!

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Look, other than the rest a team gets I don't think it truly matters about the bye weeks. The only schedule that looks fishy is Duke. They get a bye week and then play Army. They will be tuned up for us. Of course that being said we should beat them this year. Fact is every team on our schedule spends 30% of Summer practice preparing for us. Hell some even hire consultants to stop us. All that being said it continues to bring to light how effective CPJ and his offense is. May it stay at Tech forever.

Let's hope all these "consultants" are as successful as BVG at UGAG

 

[bke1984]

That's a valid point. I mean, if I just changed the data, the data would all be different.

In all seriousness, I get your point, I'm only looking at 10 games. But there is no need to overcomplicate things. Why do we have a bye week at all? If a bye week is helpful at all for any reason, then that's all we need to know. Why don't we demand that all games be played at home? Yes I'm veering off topic again. But honestly, I think everyone would be in complete 100% agreement that a team just getting a week off at all in the season is a good thing. So if a team having a week off is a good thing, then there is no reason to give some teams a lot of that and other teams not much at all. For a bunch of years in a row. The data backs this up and its not even close. Frankly, I don't really care how bye weeks affect a team in the Mountain West. I don't really care how it affects a team in the ACC. I care how it affects us. Even if there were thousands of datapoints nationwide that were all in unison but we were an outlier, I would say if for no other reason than superstition we should do what's best for us.

I mean I do have a Masters in Statistics, so I kind of know what I'm talking about...drawing conclusions from data sets with a small sample size is terrible practice...yet the media does it all the damn time. My point about the data is that there is a lot of variance with such a small sample size. Then there's also the fact that there are more variables at play than just the BYE week...and to sit there and say that over a sample size of 10 games that the BYE week was the deciding factor is ridiculous. Then even if you get a sample size large enough there's the whole correlation vs. causation issue. The biggest factor you're leaving out is the teams being played. Let's say we lose to Clemson when they're coming off a BYE but beat Syracuse when they're coming off a BYE. Is the BYE the deciding factor?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I mean I do have a Masters in Statistics, so I kind of know what I'm talking about...drawing conclusions from data sets with a small sample size is terrible practice...yet the media does it all the damn time. My point is that there are more variables at play than just the BYE week...and to sit there and say that over a sample size of 10 games that the BYE week was the deciding factor is ridiculous. The biggest factor you're leaving out is the teams being played. Let's say we lose to Clemson when they're coming off a BYE but beat Syracuse when they're coming off a BYE. Is the BYE the deciding factor?

Dude, this is a Georgia Tech forum, we are all smart with numbers. If I said the bye week was a deciding factor, then I apologize and take it back. I never meant to imply that. And yes the sample size is small. But it is what it is, you go with what you have. I'd rather not play 2 games on the road against Clemson in back to back years. Did we lose to Clemson only because we played them on the road? I highly doubt it. Did we beat Duke in 2013 and 2014 because we had a bye week and they didn't? (They were 9 win and 10 win teams that year.) Probably not. I really don't want to give the impression I'm trying to conduct a statistically significant analysis here and overcomplicate things. Just make the scheduling fair. If bye weeks and number of games at home/away are even, then you're 98% there. Its not that difficult.

 

[TheSilasSonRising]

And why Georgia Tech should have bolted for the Big Ten years ago.

Any proof that was an option?

Besides, talk about slitting your own throat. Only GT could think this.

 

[TheSilasSonRising]

Look, other than the rest a team gets I don't think it truly matters about the bye weeks. The only schedule that looks fishy is Duke. They get a bye week and then play Army. They will be tuned up for us. Of course that being said we should beat them this year. Fact is every team on our schedule spends 30% of Summer practice preparing for us. Hell some even hire consultants to stop us. All that being said it continues to bring to light how effective CPJ and his offense is. May it stay at Tech forever.

Wonder why Monken would agree to schedule puke in a way to hurt his former mentor?

 

[bke1984]

Dude, this is a Georgia Tech forum, we are all smart with numbers. If I said the bye week was a deciding factor, then I apologize and take it back. I never meant to imply that. And yes the sample size is small. But it is what it is, you go with what you have. I'd rather not play 2 games on the road against Clemson in back to back years. Did we lose to Clemson only because we played them on the road? I highly doubt it. Did we beat Duke in 2013 and 2014 because we had a bye week and they didn't? (They were 9 win and 10 win teams that year.) Probably not. I really don't want to give the impression I'm trying to conduct a statistically significant analysis here and overcomplicate things. Just make the scheduling fair. If bye weeks and number of games at home/away are even, then you're 98% there. Its not that difficult.

So in general I agree that the BYE week thing is BS and needs to be fixed. I guess I'm just over everyone pointing to that when things go wrong.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

So in general I agree that the BYE week thing is BS and needs to be fixed. I guess I'm just over everyone pointing to that when things go wrong.

I emboldened the second sentence. 100% totally and completely agree. When we play bad and lose its because of us. No excuses.

 

[Fatmike91]

Wonder why Monken would agree to schedule puke in a way to hurt his former mentor?

Duke v. Army was scheduled and on a calendar a long time ago. The part about Duke getting a bye the week before and playing GT the week after is unrelated and was negotiated very recently.

I suspect Duke will have their hands full with an improving Army team next year...

/

 

[PBR549]

By the time you get the sample size you want your coach is fired.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

I mean I do have a Masters in Statistics, so I kind of know what I'm talking about...drawing conclusions from data sets with a small sample size is terrible practice...yet the media does it all the damn time. My point about the data is that there is a lot of variance with such a small sample size. Then there's also the fact that there are more variables at play than just the BYE week...and to sit there and say that over a sample size of 10 games that the BYE week was the deciding factor is ridiculous. Then even if you get a sample size large enough there's the whole correlation vs. causation issue. The biggest factor you're leaving out is the teams being played. Let's say we lose to Clemson when they're coming off a BYE but beat Syracuse when they're coming off a BYE. Is the BYE the deciding factor?

Part of the problem with statistical analysis is getting lost in the numbers. Sometimes data sets aren't necessary in evaluating an issue. Sometimes qualifying is more valuable than quantifying. In this case I'll take personal experience over a set of data.

Our coach with years and years of experience in football, recognizes through experience, the advantage of a bye week. How it allows more prep time to scheme, injuries to heal, fatigued bodies to recharge.