ACC Tourney

GTNavyNuke

GTNavyNuke

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Today (24 April before rubber match @ Clemson) we are at -1 in ACC play. 10 ACC games remaining.

Here's what it has taken to get into different brackets the last two years since the ACC changed the format:
Conclusion:
  • +1 or better should get us in top 6 and avoid play-in.
  • -4 means we probably have to win tiebreakers.
  • -3 should get us in.
 
RoosterJacket

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1. Miami +10
2. FSU +8
3. Louisville +6
4. NC State +4
5. ND 0
5. UVA 0
7. GT -1
7. Pitt -1
9. 4 teams at -2

It sure is crowded from spots 5-12.
 
GTNavyNuke

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In past years, I've looked at who is doing what. This year I hope to keep it simple and just watch the over / under 500.

The last weekend against BC will probably be massive since we "should" only win 2 of 6 against Miami and @UVa. That would put us@ -2 with BC coming to town.
 

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GTNavyNuke said:
In past years, I've looked at who is doing what. This year I hope to keep it simple and just watch the over / under 500.

The last weekend against BC will probably be massive since we "should" only win 2 of 6 against Miami and @UVa. That would put us@ -2 with BC coming to town.
Click to expand...

Sounds about right.
 
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I said I was going to keep it simple .... that was yesterday. We have the un-played game with Pitt out there. Right now it is cancelled. But on WREK yesterday they said we would play that game if it affected whether we made it into the top 10 in the ACC. Essentially a play in game to get to the ACC tourney play in game.

Then I realized the same would be true if Pitt needed to play the game to get into the top 10. So being the optimist I am, I realized we will probably end up after the BC series in the sixth spot. Pitt will need to play in. So Monday or Tuesday we play Pitt and lose. Drop to the seventh spot and have to play in ourselves starting Wednesday. And the rest is history with our pitching depth.......... :muted:
 

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GTNavyNuke said:
I said I was going to keep it simple .... that was yesterday. We have the un-played game with Pitt out there. Right now it is cancelled. But on WREK yesterday they said we would play that game if it affected whether we made it into the top 10 in the ACC. Essentially a play in game to get to the ACC tourney play in game.

Then I realized the same would be true if Pitt needed to play the game to get into the top 10. So being the optimist I am, I realized we will probably end up after the BC series in the sixth spot. Pitt will need to play in. So Monday or Tuesday we play Pitt and lose. Drop to the seventh spot and have to play in ourselves starting Wednesday. And the rest is history with our pitching depth.......... :muted:
Click to expand...

Now THERE'S a true GT fan.....LOL
 

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Maybe if Ben Parr or Jake Lee or Gibson get going on the mound we can split with Miami and UVa (especially would like to take 2 of 3 from UVa) and secure our position in the Top 6.....

With GT you just never know......(but I will never expect Pitts to save our bacon, just too much experience that says that won't happen).
 
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ACC Tournament Seedings as of 4/25
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GTNavyNuke said:
I said I was going to keep it simple .... that was yesterday. We have the un-played game with Pitt out there. Right now it is cancelled. But on WREK yesterday they said we would play that game if it affected whether we made it into the top 10 in the ACC. Essentially a play in game to get to the ACC tourney play in game.

Then I realized the same would be true if Pitt needed to play the game to get into the top 10. So being the optimist I am, I realized we will probably end up after the BC series in the sixth spot. Pitt will need to play in. So Monday or Tuesday we play Pitt and lose. Drop to the seventh spot and have to play in ourselves starting Wednesday. And the rest is history with our pitching depth.......... :muted:
Click to expand...

Imagine how Miami would feel getting dragged into two games against Notre Dame just before the tournament despite being nearly guaranteed a top 2 finish.
 

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OK, so I did the who-plays-who scenario and here's how it looks to me based on NavyNuke's +/- approach:

Top 5 teams pretty well locked in:
FSU (+9)
Miami (+9)
Louisville (+7)
N C State (+4)
Virginia (+1)-they have by far the easiest schedule left and are playing well having just taken 2 of 3 form Miami in Coral Gables. They get Pitt on the road next weekend then end with GT and VPI at home. Those home series should yield 5-1 for a +4 and make them safely one of the top 5 teams. It would really help us if they knocked the snot out of Pitt as well.

Next 5:
This is where it gets (as always) VERY hairy. My projected finish is shown () after my comments
Wake Forest (-1)-with road series against BC and VPI they also have an easier schedule. Home series vs Louisville will be tough (0)
GT (0)-with UVa on the road and Miami at home, we will be playing BC for a spot in the tourney at home on the last weekend. (-1)
ND (-1)-home series vs Pitt & Clemson, road vs UNC (-2)
Clemson (-3)-home series vs FSU and N C State are key. Road series vs Notre Dame (-2)
UNC (-3)-home vs Louisville and Notre Dame, road vs N C State. Tough but doable (-2)

Out:
Pitt (-1)-with series against Miami (road) and UVa (home), they face tough odds. Other series vs Notre Dame (road) and Duke (home) (-3)
Duke (-3)-N C State and Pitt on the road, FSU at home. Difficult (-4)
BC-(-5)-next 2 weekends at home vs WF and VPI could fatten their record. They will come to Atlanta looking to beat us and get in (-6)
VPI (-13)-@ Virginia and BC, home vs Wake (-18)

The keys in my humble opinion are whether BC can go 5-1 at home the next two weekends against decent Wake and horrid VPI teams (entirely possible since they just took 2 of 3 at home vs Louisville). if that happens, they roll into Atlanta with momentum and at -1 for the year while GT could easily be -2 (at best?). Obviously, GT would then HAVE to win the series just to make it into the ACC Tourney.

Aslo, I project Pitt to miss, but their schedule is in fact much like ours (we both play Miami and Virginia). I just think Notre Dame on the road and Duke at home will be tougher for them than BC at home for us. Hope I'm right.

Frankly, for us to have any chance we MUST avoid sweeps against both Miami and Virginia. That Friday night collapse against Clemson might come back to haunt us!!
 
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MWBATL said:
Maybe if Ben Parr or Jake Lee or Gibson get going on the mound we can split with Miami and UVa (especially would like to take 2 of 3 from UVa) and secure our position in the Top 6.....

With GT you just never know......(but I will never expect Pitts to save our bacon, just too much experience that says that won't happen).
Click to expand...

Parr has definitely earned the right to start a weekend game. He's been great his last few outings. So I was interested in seeing how Gibson has done when he didn't start bc I know he started some games early in--check out these stats which don't include his 4 starts: 0.68 era, .213 avg, 9 k, 4 bb. So he either has improved since beginning of the year when he started some games or he is better in a relief role. Lee has pitched decently in his two starts. I don't think anyone is denying we don't have the arm talent, just a matter of getting them to be consistent.

Hopefully Zac Ryan can come out tomorrow and pitch like he did vs FSU and UNC.
 
GTNavyNuke

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MWBATL said:
OK, so I did the who-plays-who scenario and here's how it looks to me based on NavyNuke's +/- approach:

Top 5 teams pretty well locked in:
FSU (+9)
Miami (+9)
Louisville (+7)
N C State (+4)
Virginia (+1)-they have by far the easiest schedule left and are playing well having just taken 2 of 3 form Miami in Coral Gables. They get Pitt on the road next weekend then end with GT and VPI at home. Those home series should yield 5-1 for a +4 and make them safely one of the top 5 teams. It would really help us if they knocked the snot out of Pitt as well.

Next 5:
This is where it gets (as always) VERY hairy. My projected finish is shown () after my comments
Wake Forest (-1)-with road series against BC and VPI they also have an easier schedule. Home series vs Louisville will be tough (0)
GT (0)-with UVa on the road and Miami at home, we will be playing BC for a spot in the tourney at home on the last weekend. (-1)
ND (-1)-home series vs Pitt & Clemson, road vs UNC (-2)
Clemson (-3)-home series vs FSU and N C State are key. Road series vs Notre Dame (-2)
UNC (-3)-home vs Louisville and Notre Dame, road vs N C State. Tough but doable (-2)

Out:
Pitt (-1)-with series against Miami (road) and UVa (home), they face tough odds. Other series vs Notre Dame (road) and Duke (home) (-3)
Duke (-3)-N C State and Pitt on the road, FSU at home. Difficult (-4)
BC-(-5)-next 2 weekends at home vs WF and VPI could fatten their record. They will come to Atlanta looking to beat us and get in (-6)
VPI (-13)-@ Virginia and BC, home vs Wake (-18)

The keys in my humble opinion are whether BC can go 5-1 at home the next two weekends against decent Wake and horrid VPI teams (entirely possible since they just took 2 of 3 at home vs Louisville). if that happens, they roll into Atlanta with momentum and at -1 for the year while GT could easily be -2 (at best?). Obviously, GT would then HAVE to win the series just to make it into the ACC Tourney.

Aslo, I project Pitt to miss, but their schedule is in fact much like ours (we both play Miami and Virginia). I just think Notre Dame on the road and Duke at home will be tougher for them than BC at home for us. Hope I'm right.

Frankly, for us to have any chance we MUST avoid sweeps against both Miami and Virginia. That Friday night collapse against Clemson might come back to haunt us!!
Click to expand...

Yup. That's why I want to keep it simple. All those numbers can go +/- a minimum of 9!

To do this properly, we'd need to get estimates of probabilities and degrees of freedom for home/away records, injuries, past records, current trends of individual pitchers, current hitting trends, current fielding trends from neural network estimation by JMP (or your favorite program). Then run the Monte Carlo on best neural net trends to get the probabilities. The hardest part I see is getting the data .........

Actually, I like that you did all the work. I agree 1) we need to win and 2) Pitt needs to lose. We end up at +1 and I think we'll be top 6 (>50% probability).

I was wrong about the ACC play-in game being on Wednesday. It is on Tuesday. So much the worse for those having to do make up games on Monday after a weekend series which will already have been do or die for them. So it would be really cool if Miami had to play a double header versus ND on Monday. And since it's two games, that seems likely for either ND to have to play to get in or to defend staying in. That is something to root for since I can rarely find a reason to root for ND.

The 13-14 loss to Duke will haunt me more than the loss to Clemson. But that's just me. We took the series from Clemson and I think Clemson should have won on Sunday with all our walks. But we "should" have won with a 5 run lead in the first game. So karma evened out.
 

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Actually, I just realized that if it plays out as I projected above, then Pitt at -3 would require us to play the make-up game, because if they won it they would be -2 and tied with a bevy of teams for making the cut into the tourney. Notre Dame, whom I projected to finish at -2, would also have an argument to make up its games as relevant to who gets into the Tourney. Well, let's just hope for a sweep by either team in the Pitt/Notre Dame series...that would help settle things as well (but is very unlikely).

Shhesh. Too many possibilities. None of them real good for us unless we just pile up a few wins. Going 5-4 in our last three series would be YUGE!
 

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OK, while there weren't many ACC series this past weekend, there were a coulee, so here's the updated view )pending tonight's FSU-Clemson finale, which I project Clemson will win):
(NB-in general I project ACC home teams to win their series 2-1, with exceptions for VPI @ UVa and Pitt @ Miami, where I project sweeps. There are a select number of home teams where I project they will lose the series 2-1, such as Miami@GT, as well)

Top 5 teams pretty well locked in:
FSU (+9)
Miami (+9)
Louisville (+7)
N C State (+5)
Virginia (+4)-they have by far the easiest schedule left and are playing well having just taken 2 of 3 from Miami in Coral Gables and have now won 4 ACC series in a row. They get GT and VPI at home. It would really help us if they knocked the snot out of Pitt as well. They did, sweeping the Panthers 3-0.

Next 5:
This is where it gets (as always) VERY hairy. My projected finish is shown () after my comments
Wake Forest (-1)-with road series against BC and VPI they also have an easier schedule. Home series vs Louisville will be tough (0)
GT (0)-with UVa on the road and Miami at home, we will be playing BC for a spot in the tourney at home on the last weekend. (-1)
ND (-1)-home series vs Pitt & Clemson, road vs UNC (-2)
Clemson (-3)-home series vs FSU and N C State are key. Road series vs Notre Dame (-2)
UNC (-3)-home vs Louisville and Notre Dame, road vs N C State. Tough but doable (-2)

Out:
Pitt (-4)-with series against Miami (road), they face tough odds. Other series vs Notre Dame (road) and Duke (home) (-5)
Duke (-4)-Pitt on the road, FSU at home. Difficult (-4)
BC-(-4)-next weekend's series at home vs WF will be key. They missed a chance to sweep VPI though, and that helps us a lot. They will come to Atlanta looking to beat us and get in (-5)
VPI (-14)-@ Virginia home vs Wake (-18)

The keys in my humble opinion are whether BC can go 5-1 at home the next two weekends against decent Wake and horrid VPI teams (entirely possible since they just took 2 of 3 at home vs Louisville). if that happens, they roll into Atlanta with momentum and at -1 for the year while GT could easily be -2 (at best?). Obviously, GT would then HAVE to win the series just to make it into the ACC Tourney. Since BC did not sweep VPI, they now look like they will be at -3 coming in even if they take their next series with Wake Forest. Still a threat, but if Wake can beat them 2 of 3 next weekend it likely takes all the steam out of their sails....

Aslo, I project Pitt to miss, but their schedule is in fact much like ours (we both play Miami and Virginia). I just think Notre Dame on the road and Duke at home will be tougher for them than BC at home for us. Hope I'm right. PITT got swept by UVa which has dimmed their chances considerably unless they really do well in Coral Gables against Miami in 2 weeks.

Frankly, for us to have any chance we MUST avoid sweeps against both Miami and Virginia. I still believe this. Last weekend's results helped us in every way, BUT getting swept by either Miami (best team in the league?) or Virginia (hottest team in the league?) would put us right back on the proverbial bubble. The team with the best chance to catch us now is Duke, which I project to finish at -4 (assuming they split their next two series with Pitt & FSU).
 
GTNavyNuke

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MWBATL said:
OK, while there weren't many ACC series this past weekend, there were a coulee, so here's the updated view )pending tonight's FSU-Clemson finale, which I project Clemson will win):
(NB-in general I project ACC home teams to win their series 2-1, with exceptions for VPI @ UVa and Pitt @ Miami, where I project sweeps. There are a select number of home teams where I project they will lose the series 2-1, such as Miami@GT, as well)

Top 5 teams pretty well locked in:
FSU (+9)
Miami (+9)
Louisville (+7)
N C State (+5)
Virginia (+4)-they have by far the easiest schedule left and are playing well having just taken 2 of 3 from Miami in Coral Gables and have now won 4 ACC series in a row. They get GT and VPI at home. It would really help us if they knocked the snot out of Pitt as well. They did, sweeping the Panthers 3-0.

Next 5:
This is where it gets (as always) VERY hairy. My projected finish is shown () after my comments
Wake Forest (-1)-with road series against BC and VPI they also have an easier schedule. Home series vs Louisville will be tough (0)
GT (0)-with UVa on the road and Miami at home, we will be playing BC for a spot in the tourney at home on the last weekend. (-1)
ND (-1)-home series vs Pitt & Clemson, road vs UNC (-2)
Clemson (-3)-home series vs FSU and N C State are key. Road series vs Notre Dame (-2)
UNC (-3)-home vs Louisville and Notre Dame, road vs N C State. Tough but doable (-2)

Out:
Pitt (-4)-with series against Miami (road), they face tough odds. Other series vs Notre Dame (road) and Duke (home) (-5)
Duke (-4)-Pitt on the road, FSU at home. Difficult (-4)
BC-(-4)-next weekend's series at home vs WF will be key. They missed a chance to sweep VPI though, and that helps us a lot. They will come to Atlanta looking to beat us and get in (-5)
VPI (-14)-@ Virginia home vs Wake (-18)

The keys in my humble opinion are whether BC can go 5-1 at home the next two weekends against decent Wake and horrid VPI teams (entirely possible since they just took 2 of 3 at home vs Louisville). if that happens, they roll into Atlanta with momentum and at -1 for the year while GT could easily be -2 (at best?). Obviously, GT would then HAVE to win the series just to make it into the ACC Tourney. Since BC did not sweep VPI, they now look like they will be at -3 coming in even if they take their next series with Wake Forest. Still a threat, but if Wake can beat them 2 of 3 next weekend it likely takes all the steam out of their sails....

Aslo, I project Pitt to miss, but their schedule is in fact much like ours (we both play Miami and Virginia). I just think Notre Dame on the road and Duke at home will be tougher for them than BC at home for us. Hope I'm right. PITT got swept by UVa which has dimmed their chances considerably unless they really do well in Coral Gables against Miami in 2 weeks.

Frankly, for us to have any chance we MUST avoid sweeps against both Miami and Virginia. I still believe this. Last weekend's results helped us in every way, BUT getting swept by either Miami (best team in the league?) or Virginia (hottest team in the league?) would put us right back on the proverbial bubble. The team with the best chance to catch us now is Duke, which I project to finish at -4 (assuming they split their next two series with Pitt & FSU).
Click to expand...

Great review. But I had to check out "coulee" (first sentence); as I thought it make be a french word related to a merkin ....

I agree that the BC series will probably be a play in series. Having Pitt get swept is a tremendous help as the last thing we will need is a Monday play in game after the BC series and before the Tuesday ACC play in game. 5 must win games in a row is too much for almost any team .... and that would be before the ACC tourney. So we would be -2 going into the BC series.

To make top 6, I think we need to go 5-4. Most likely way to do that is take one each from Miami and UVa and sweep BC. Then we end up +1 and probably #6. As a second thought, wouldn't it be fortuitous if we had to play Pitt on Monday for Pitts sake and we won which moved us to #6 from #7? (Trying to look at the bright side for a change. :whistle:)
 

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I agree that +1 will get us the sixth seed. Since I have little confidence in our ability to sweep ACC teams I am assuming we could only get there by winning both home series 2-1 and winning 1 in Charlottesville.

I think it is great that Jake Lee had a good outing and maybe he is in fact oa solid weekend starter (I hope so) but I still don't see a reliable #3 starter. Cole Pitts is just not it, yet Hall seems bound and determined to pitch him no matter what. I would rather we pitch one of the freshman (wasn't someone else making that argument?) rather than Pitts. With Pitts we are guaranteed to be in a hole before Hall finally yanks him, and we were lucky to come back and win his start this past weekend. Throw Gibson or Delaney or any of the frosh. They will benefit for the experience and honestly, I am not at all sure they will do worse than Pitts.

I'll let you know when Danny calls me for his advice though....
 
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