ACC Tourney

[GTNavyNuke]

Danny doesn't have my number, maybe I should post it here? LOL. Looking at the stats (that's all we have) Pitts is not the answer, especially with 95% of his college career done. Lee, Dulaney, Gibson or any damn Fr is a better answer.

Anyway, here is a Q and moderator's answer on D1 baseball. Is Steve on this board? I think the answer is optimistic since elite pitching seems to negate elite hitting. But we have to hold out hope, even if only to win a regional:
"
Comment From Steve

As a long-time Georgia Tech baseball fan, I’m used to disappointment in the post-season. This year’s team has the bats, but do they have the pitching to win a regional?

Aaron Fitt:
It’s certainly possible to win a regional without premier pitching if you can hit like Georgia Tech can. But I don’t think Tech’s pitching is terrible — it’s middle of the pack ACC pitching. They get a decent amount of ground balls and turn a ton of double plays (I think they lead the nation in that category), which certainly helps. So yeah, I could see it."

 

[MWBATL]

If we get further performances like last weekend's, yes, I can see it as well.

Who knows how the frosh will pitch over the next 4 weeks? That will dictate our season......you can't go very far if you have to score 9 runs to win games....especially in post season.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

If we get further performances like last weekend's, yes, I can see it as well.

Who knows how the frosh will pitch over the next 4 weeks? That will dictate our season......you can't go very far if you have to score 9 runs to win games....especially in post season.

No idea which Fr will do the best. That's why I want to see more run time on them all. I hold out little hope for going deep in any tourneys we are fortunate enough to be in this year. It's about next year....... and the year after.

But I also regularly call for JT to be pulled when he gets slow, sloppy and erratic.

 

[FredJacket]

New guy to forum. Good stuff from the folks here. Curious about a few things regarding the tournament field/seeding. It's been mentioned here.. and I also heard it on the WREK broadcast recently. Makeup games on the Monday prior to tourney? My "googling" cannot find any mention of such a plan. The ACC seeding is based on winning percentage with a tiebreaking system that includes a "coin flip" as the last option. I guess I'm skeptical there is any chance there will be any makeup games. Has anyone heard this makeup game talk beyond the mention (repeated here) on WREK??

As for Tech's situation. I agree with the general sentiment here. If we just had a better pitching situation right now... if only. However, I remain the eternal optimist and assume we always can (and will) "win the next one". Therefore, I keep following/watching and hoping for a top 6 seed. Bottom line... I can see 9-0 over the last 3 series. ...but will take 5-4.

Peace! ...and GO JACKETS!

 

[Stinger90]

ACC Baseball Tiebreakers

(as of 4/24/16)


QUALIFICATION
The top team from both the Atlantic and Coastal divisions, determined by conference winning percentage, and the next eight teams with the best conference winning percentage regardless of division will be selected to participate in the Conference Baseball Championship. The two division champions will automatically be seeded number one and two based on winning percentage in overall conference competition, and the number one seed shall have the choice of its preferred day off. The remaining teams will be seeded (three through ten) based on winning percentage in overall Conference competition without regard to division. All ties will be broken using the tie-breaking provisions.

SEEDING
In the case of a tie in conference winning percentage, championship seeding will use the tie-breaking procedures below with the following guidelines:

• When comparing tied teams and arriving at another pair of tied teams, use each team’s winning percentage against the tied teams as a group. For example, if Teams A and B have the same winning percentage as compared to Team C; then Teams A and B will be compared to Team D, but if Team D is tied with Team E, then Teams A and B will be compared to the winning percentage of Teams D and E collectively, not individually.
• When comparing records against a single team or group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail even if the number of games played against a team or group of teams is unequal. If winning percentage of the tied teams is equal against a team, or a group of tied teams, continue until one team gains an advantage.
• If multiple teams tie and the tie can be reduced to two teams, the provisions for two team ties will be used from that point forward.
• One completed game of a conference series constitutes a common opponent for tie breaking purposes.​

1. Division Champion Determination.

(a) The division champion will be the team in each division with the highest overall conference winning percentage.
(b) Head-to-head conference competition between the tied teams.
(c) Records of the tied teams within their division.
(d) Head-to-head competition of the tied teams versus the team within the division with the best overall conference winning percentage (divisional and non-divisional) and proceeding through the division.
(e) Head-to-head competition of the tied teams versus common opponents in the opposite division with the best overall conference winning percentage (divisional and non-divisional) and proceeding through the opposite division.
(f) Coin flip.​

2. Seeds One and Two Determination.

(a) Head-to-head competition in regular-season conference play between the two tied teams.
(b) Head-to-head competition of the tied teams compared to common opponents (divisional and non-divisional) with the highest conference winning percentage and continuing until one team gains an advantage.
(c) Coin flip.​

3. Seeds Three Through Ten Determinations.
(a) Divisional Opponents.

Two-Team Tie
(1) Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams.
(2) Records of the tied teams within the division.
(3) Head to head competition of the tied teams versus the team within the division with the best overall conference winning percentage (divisional and non-divisional) and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division broken from first to last.
(4) Overall record versus all common non-divisional opponents.
(5) Combined record versus all non-divisional opponents.
(6) Record versus common non-divisional opponents based on their order of finish within their division.
(7) Coin flip.
Three-or-More-Team Tie
(1) Combined head-to-head record among the tied teams.
(2) Records of the tied teams within the division.
(3) Head-to-head competition versus the team within the division with the best overall (divisional and non-divisional) conference winning percentage, and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken first to last.
(4) Overall record versus non-divisional opponents.
(5) Combined record versus all common non-divisional opponents.
(6) Record versus common non-divisional opponents with the best overall conference (divisional and non-divisional) winning percentage and proceeding through the other common non-divisional opponents based on their order of finish within the division.
(7) The seed(s) shall be chosen by a draw.​

(b) Non-Divisional Opponents.
Two-Team Tie
(1) Head-to-head conference competition between the tied teams.
(2) Head-to-head competition of the tied teams compared to common opponents with the highest overall conference winning percentage and continuing until one team gains an advantage.
(3) Coin flip.
Three-or-More-Team Tie
(1) Combined head-to-head record among the tied teams (if common opponents).
(2) Head-to-head competition of the tied teams compared to common opponents with the highest overall conference winning percentage and continuing until one team gains an advantage.
(3) The seed shall be chosen by a draw.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

New guy to forum. Good stuff from the folks here. Curious about a few things regarding the tournament field/seeding. It's been mentioned here.. and I also heard it on the WREK broadcast recently. Makeup games on the Monday prior to tourney? My "googling" cannot find any mention of such a plan. The ACC seeding is based on winning percentage with a tiebreaking system that includes a "coin flip" as the last option. I guess I'm skeptical there is any chance there will be any makeup games. Has anyone heard this makeup game talk beyond the mention (repeated here) on WREK??

As for Tech's situation. I agree with the general sentiment here. If we just had a better pitching situation right now... if only. However, I remain the eternal optimist and assume we always can (and will) "win the next one". Therefore, I keep following/watching and hoping for a top 6 seed. Bottom line... I can see 9-0 over the last 3 series. ...but will take 5-4.

Peace! ...and GO JACKETS!

Submitted your question to Wiley @ WREK ([email protected])

I'll miss most of the game tonight. If anyone hears the answers to these, please post:
1) What’s the basis for thinking that ACC regular season games which were postponed would be made up if the game could affect whether a team made the top 10 or not? See https://gtswarm.com/threads/acc-tourney.9558/page-2#post-225850
2) Also, any more word on English? Is he throwing any practice during the week?
3) Or any word on summer ball participants (including English / Hughes)?

 

[bensaysitathome]

Re: makeup games, he couldn't speak with any certainty, but did not think games would be made up. Conference winning percentage would likely be used to determine seeding.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Re: makeup games, he couldn't speak with any certainty, but did not think games would be made up. Conference winning percentage would likely be used to determine seeding.

I listened too and was glad it was late since I missed the first 5 innings. Basically Wiley walked back what the previous person had said a bit. So I decided to look at what has actually happened the last two years since we went to the new format. (Empirical method you know):
2014: No play in games but all but two teams played 30 games. That 1 missed game didn't affect both teams who were in to 6.
2015: No play in games with 6 teams playing 29. None of those missed games would have affected someone going from 11th to 10th.

Conclusion: Probably moot as the bottom four will get separation on the field. But I would also think it depends not so much on the tournament rules as to the agreement of the coaches when the game was cancelled / postponed. They could always agree to play a make up in Greensboro if it would get either team into the tourney. Of course that would be attempted suicide since a 11th seed doesn't have good pitching to start with ...... but would give bragging rights to getting to the tournament.

One other note. The last game of the regular season is on Saturday. So the makeup game could be on Sunday or Monday.

Also on the English question, I asked if English had been throwing bullpen and he didn't know. Also no details on summer ball. But I think it's good to ask him questions so he has something to talk about in dead time -

 

[RoosterJacket]

Need a GT win, Pitt loss, and Clemson loss today. Yesterday was a big day in the standings with our win, Clemson's L, and Wake's 2 L's. We now sit at +1 and behind us are Clemson, Pitt, and WF all at -2.

5) UVA 14-10
6) GT 11-10
t7) Clemson 12-14
t7) Wake Forest 11-13
t7) Pitt 10-12
t11) BC 11-14
t11) UNC 10-13
t11) Notre Dame 9-12

 

[Stinger90]

This backs up what @RoosterJacket posted:
WREK Sports ‏@WREKSports 3h3 hours ago
Updated ACC Standings

 

[GTNavyNuke]

After Miami, we are going to end up at -7, -5, -3, -1, 1, 3 or 5 on the ACC year with 6 games to go. "Just" need to win 4 of the next 6 ACC games and we'll be in @ +1. If we win 2 or 3 of 6, we'll end up at -3 or -1 and probably in the play in round. Don't want to be there with our pitching depth. We saw how ugly things get when we run out of effective pitching .....

Taking the UVa series would be massive. But we have to win one to keep hopes alive for making the top 6 .......

 

[GTNavyNuke]

D1 Baseball has us as a second seed in the Florida region. They also have us 8th out (on the bubble out) as a regional host. Coastal Carolina and Clemson are ahead of us in their view (and the RPI). http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/currentrpi.html

I haven't posted on a separate NCAA tourney topic since we have to get into the ACC tourney first. (And not that I'm superstitious, but posting would cause bad luck. )

In my opinion, getting to the ACC tourney (top 10 not necessarily win the play in game) is a requirement even with a top 25* RPI. There are too many good ACC teams to take one who was 11th or worse in their conference. The ACC may get 9 teams of the 64 team field. The ACC is projected to have 6 regional hosts (of 16 total) and the same or more than the SEC partly due to the ACC pulling ahead of the SEC in the RPI.

Just win and the love will follow.

(Edit - based on Boyds World Needs Report, we are going to end up between 9th and 31st in RPI. http://boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html )

 

[MWBATL]

We simply have to avoid a sweep in Charlottesville. Then we will have a play in series with BC to make it into the tourney. If we can't beat BC 2 of 3 at home, maybe we don't deserve to go anywhere.

In truth, though, getting sent to Gainesville (again) is simply a death sentence for this team. There is simply no way this team can take 2 of 3 from UF on the road.

 

[MWBATL]

My own projections with two weekends to go, focusing ONLY on spots 6-10 in league play. They top 5 spots are taken (Miami, FSU, Louisville, Virginia, NC State)

GT -1 if we can take 1 of 3 vs UVa and 2 of 3 vs BC we finish at -1. Given everything below, it is IMPERATIVE we finish at -1 because I think -3 leaves us out.
Clemson -2 they are at -1 right now and must visit Notre Dame, They could easily win this series, but I assume host teams win 2 of 3 so I project them to finish at -2. If they win this series they clinch 6th place
Notre Dame -2 the Irish are still very much in the hunt and are -2 right now going into a road trip to UNC. If they can avoid being swept they will be playing for a spot in the tourney against Clemson
Wake Forest -2 The Deacs are also -2 right now with a road series at VT and home vs Louisville, going 3-3 is immensely possible to finish at -2.

UNC -4 The Heels are -4 and have WF at home and then N C State on the road. Going 3-3 in those games will put them on the brink
BC -4 They sit at -3 right now with their road series against us their lone remaining games. If they beat us 2 of 3 they would make it in with a -2 while we would be -3
Duke -4 They sit at -4 like UNC with a home series vs FSU and a road series vs Pitt. Hard to see 4-2 out of that.

If it turns out this way...BC gets eliminated because their winning % at 12-16 would be worse than UNC or Duke (each at 13-17). Then, since UNC swept Duke earlier, I think they get the 10th spot.

Obviously, one game either way changes a team's plus minus by 2 and changes this whole projection.

 

[RoosterJacket]

Here are updated standings after today:

5) NCST 13-12 w/ 3 games left vs UNC
6T) WF 13-14 w/ 3 games left vs Lville
6T) Clemson 13-14 w/ 3 gms left @ ND
8) GT 12-14 w/ 3 gms left vs BC
9) Duke 12-15 w/ 3 gms left @ Pitt
10) ND 11-13 w/ 1 gm left @ NC & 3 gms left vs Clemson
11) BC 11-14 w/ 3 gms left @ GT
12) UNC 11-15 nd1 w/ 1 gm left vs ND and 3 gms left @ NC St
13) Pitt 10-16 w/ 3 gms left vs Duke

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Check my math. We are at -2 to 500. So we can end up anywhere between -5 and +1 (-5, -3, -1, 1).

Based on the last two years of ACC tourney, -5 we dont' go. -3 and -1 we have to play in. +1 we are in top 6. After Duke taking a series @FSU and us winning today, I've given up (till next weekend) predicting who will win or lose.

We control our destiny. Today's win over UVa was massive. (And exactly what is expected for a series @UVa where they were ranked above us.)

 

[FredJacket]

I agree with your math and we essentially control our own destiny. However, not literally. Mathematically... we can sweep BC, finish +1, and outside top 6. Quite unlikely because WF would need to sweep Louisville and/or Clemson sweep ND in South Bend.

Likewise, we can finish -1 and end up 6th. Also unlikely because it would require a lot of other games to go our way.

All that to agree. +1 we avoid the play in as 6-seed. Avoid a disastrous 3-loss weekend against BC, end up -1 or -3, and we play Tues of the tournament.

 

[FredJacket]

Some observations regarding the ACC standings heading into the final week.
1) NCST (currently 5th) hosts UNC (currently 12th) in the final weekend. Even if UNC loses tonight (v ND)... UNC can jump NCST in the standings by sweeping them in Raleigh. Obviously not likely; but would be crazy and good for ACC baseball to schedule that rivalry series to finish season.
2) Louisville was 14-1 at home in ACC play this season. As a Tech fan, I'm jealous. As a old (sort of) school guy, it still bothers me to see these johnny-come-lately ACC teams succeed.
3) When its all over this weekend: If we finish 14-15, we will REALLY wish we played that cancelled game at PITT. If we finish 15-14 we'll be THRILLED it was cancelled.
4) If we finish tied with PITT at 13-16 (we split 1-1 head to head); but we own the tiebreaker by virtue of our win over MIA. PITT was swept by MIA this past weekend. (Somebody correct me if I'm wrong about that). In other words, PITT cannot pass us in the standings.

Shaping up to be a fun weekend to follow all the action.

 

[FredJacket]

Some observations regarding the ACC standings heading into the final week.
1) NCST (currently 5th) hosts UNC (currently 12th) in the final weekend. Even if UNC loses tonight (v ND)... UNC can jump NCST in the standings by sweeping them in Raleigh. Obviously not likely; but would be crazy and good for ACC baseball to schedule that rivalry series to finish season.
2) Louisville was 14-1 at home in ACC play this season. As a Tech fan, I'm jealous. As a old (sort of) school guy, it still bothers me to see these johnny-come-lately ACC teams succeed.
3) When its all over this weekend: If we finish 14-15, we will REALLY wish we played that cancelled game at PITT. If we finish 15-14 we'll be THRILLED it was cancelled.
4) If we finish tied with PITT at 13-16 (we split 1-1 head to head); but we own the tiebreaker by virtue of our win over MIA. PITT was swept by MIA this past weekend. (Somebody correct me if I'm wrong about that). In other words, PITT cannot pass us in the standings.

Shaping up to be a fun weekend to follow all the action.

Correction: We would still have tiebreaker over PITT. However, its by virtue of our better winning % within the division.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

D1 Baseball was talking about this being the first year they could remember that the ACC was deeper than the SEC and the ACC could get 10 bids. That's based on the ACC being higher in conference RPI (.576 vice .572).

That got me to thinking that one thing that is different this year in the ACC is that there is less dispersion in the results. Maybe a +1 team goes to the play in vice the field of 6 since there are more wins to share amoug other than the top 2 teams. But I doubt it; it'll all work out this weekend with unexpected results. Here are the results:

• 2014 Top 2 teams +30; Miami +18 and FSU +12. Bottom two -24; ND -12 and VT -12.
• 2015 Top 2 teams +34; Louisville +20 and Miami +14. Bottom two -21; Pitt -12 and BC or Duke -9.
  
• 2016 Top 2 teams +24; Miami +13 and Louisville +11. Bottom two -21; VT -15 and Pitt -6.

Miami and Louisville are the elite. VT and Pitt aren't.