ACC Tourney

[FredJacket]

D1 Baseball was talking about this being the first year they could remember that the ACC was deeper than the SEC and the ACC could get 10 bids. That's based on the ACC being higher in conference RPI (.576 vice .572).

That got me to thinking that one thing that is different this year in the ACC is that there is less dispersion in the results. Maybe a +1 team goes to the play in vice the field of 6 since there are more wins to share amoug other than the top 2 teams. But I doubt it; it'll all work out this weekend with unexpected results. Here are the results:

• 2014 Top 2 teams +30; Miami +18 and FSU +12. Bottom two -24; ND -12 and VT -12.
• 2015 Top 2 teams +34; Louisville +20 and Miami +14. Bottom two -21; Pitt -12 and BC or Duke -9.
  
• 2016 Top 2 teams +24; Miami +13 and Louisville +11. Bottom two -21; VT -15 and Pitt -6.

Miami and Louisville are the elite. VT and Pitt aren't.

Good stuff. I suppose that would explain the total logjam at 5-12 in the standings. Should be a great (fun) weekend following ACC baseball.

 

[MWBATL]

I suppose we have all stared at this already, but here's the figures as we had not the final series. Top 4 accounted for so this is for 5-12:

TEAM CURRENT W-L NEXT SERIES PROJECTED W-L (assumes home team wins 2 of 3 except for Wake-Louisville))
N C State 13-12 +1 hosts UNC 15-13 +2

GT 12-14 -2 hosts BC 14-15 -1

WF 13-14 -1 hosts Louisville 14-16 -2

Clemson 13-14 -1 @Notre Dame 14-16 -2

Notre Dame 11-14 -3 hosts Clemson 13-15 -2

UNC 12-15 -3 @N C State 13-17 -4

Duke 12-15 -3 @Pitt 13-17 -4

BC 11-14 -3 @GT 12-16 -4

Pitt 10-16 -6 hosts Duke 12-17 -5

I assume we MUST win 2 of 3 to have a shot, as I just don't think we make it in at -3 (BC would leapfrog us and we MIGHT finish 10th, but not if Duke wins their series not he road). Obviously, the Notre Dame-Clemson series is a huge one for us to watch. If Duke is able to sweep, they remain a threat, but I think that's unlikely. We also need Louisville to take care of business against WF for us. So, for Thursday night root for:

Louisville over WF
Pitt over Duke
N C State over UNC
ND over Clemson, and of course
GT over BC

 

[SwarmArmy]

 

[MWBATL]

We are up slightly to 17th in RPI after lats night's win vs the Dwags (sic). (NB-they drop to 28th)

BC is #44. Losses to them at home will hurt our RPI.

Further, if we sweep, we are very likely to finish in the Top 16 RPI...which increases our chances to host a Regional if we don't wet the bed in Durham.

 

[FredJacket]

I like this chart. I could have things wrong; but I do believe the info related to PITT is not quite correct. If we end up tied with them, we hold the tiebreaker. Currently, we have 12 wins and they have 10. Therefore...

in the "Win 1" list, scratch the PITT line and we need 2 of those 5 remaining scenarios to occur.
in the "BC sweeps GT" list, we need 1 loss by PITT

Of note... all of these scenarios assume all 3 games are played in every series.

 

[RoosterJacket]

I like this chart. I could have things wrong; but I do believe the info related to PITT is not quite correct. If we end up tied with them, we hold the tiebreaker. Currently, we have 12 wins and they have 10. Therefore...

in the "Win 1" list, scratch the PITT line and we need 2 of those 5 remaining scenarios to occur.
in the "BC sweeps GT" list, we need 1 loss by PITT

Of note... all of these scenarios assume all 3 games are played in every series.

I just need someone smarter than me to tell me each day who I need to "root" for in each game being played (I'm looking at you @MWBATL )

 

[MWBATL]

I just need someone smarter than me to tell me each day who I need to "root" for in each game being played (I'm looking at you @MWBATL )

Happy to be of service, and for your Thursday night rooting pleasure (in case you missed it from above), here ya go:

So, for Thursday night root for:

Louisville over WF
Pitt over Duke
N C State over UNC
ND over Clemson, and of course
GT over BC

 

[Stinger90]

One of the things when you pull for other teams you get your heart broken. If you had taken care of things to begin with..you won't have to worry about who to pull for.

With that said, it's good to know who to pull for. Like for us playing in any post-season play regardless how far we go.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Root for GT. That's it for me. There are 7 ACC series this weekend, each has 4 possible outcomes (Sweep win, series win, series loss and sweep loss). So I think that's a lot of possibilities, add in the chance of a two game series and tiebreaker considerations and ....

Here's what D1Baseball said about GT getting into the field of 64 for NCAAs:
"I’m moving Georgia Tech, UNC and Wake Forest onto the bubble because if any of those three teams get swept this weekend, their regional hopes could be in real peril, because all three have losing conference records. If Tech loses two of three, it would fall to 13-16 in the ACC, but its top-20 RPI would probably still get it in. ......."

I don't really agree with the idea that if we lose 2 of 3 we on the bubble since I think we are (most likely, not calculated) in the tourney. At that point we have our top 20 or so RPI and a conference tournament and are in.

Make the ACC and we are in. Don't and we probably aren't and would be one of the highest RPI teams ever to not go to the tourney.

 

[MWBATL]

I don't really agree with the idea that if we lose 2 of 3 we on the bubble since I think we are (most likely, not calculated) in the tourney. At that point we have our top 20 or so RPI and a conference tournament and are in.

Make the ACC and we are in. Don't and we probably aren't and would be one of the highest RPI teams ever to not go to the tourney.

If we lose 2 of 3 this weekend, I don't think we'd be top 20 RPI anymore. But I get your point, and don't disagree....

 

[SwarmArmy]

So according to this, all we need is another loss from both UNC and ND and we're in the ACC tourney. Pitt, ND and UNC lost today.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Yeah, but I don't want Clemson to beat ND. If we sweep and Clemson sweeps, we don't get top 7.

We are in the ACC tourney, just breathe.

Getting into the ACC and losing the play in game would be an ok alternative as we have a high RPI to probably get a 2 seed and can rest before the NCAA. Two years ago when we won the ACC we wiped out our pitching. A good trade but a trade none the less.

 

[RoosterJacket]

 

[MWBATL]

Here's the complete picture for spots 5-12 in the ACC. VPI&SU was eliminated long ago, and now Pitt is eliminated as well. As for the rest, here's the picture. I assume splits in the two remaining games in all series, but you can easily see the following:

1. BC, Notre Dame and UNC all have a ton to play for as they are tied for the 10th and final spot in the tournament
2. what Rooster said is the quick summary for GT
3. UNC wins the final spot if everyone splits as their winning % is highest of the three.

N C State 14-12 +2 hosts UNC 15-13 +2

Clemson 14-14 0 @Notre Dame 15-15 -0

GT 13-14 -1 hosts BC 14-15 -1

WF 13-15 -2 hosts Louisville 14-16 -2

Duke 13-15 -2 @Pitt 14-16 -2

UNC 12-16 -4 &N C State 13-17 -4

BC 11-15 -4 @GT 12-16 -4

Notre Dame 11-15 -4 hosts Clemson 12-16 -4

So, tonight, there are really two major outcomes to root foroot for:

GT to beat BC (obvious)
Notre Dame to beat Clemson (real important to us to try to catch Clemson)

Of secondary importance unless we lose......
Pitt to come off the deck and beat Duke (would give us breathing room)
Louisville to pound Wake (breathing room again)

The UNC=N C State series really doesn't affect us much anymore, but pull for UNC (if you can stand to) just in case they can knock State off twice and we can sweep....

 

[Squints]

Yeah, but I don't want Clemson to beat ND. If we sweep and Clemson sweeps, we don't get top 7.

We are in the ACC tourney, just breathe.

Getting into the ACC and losing the play in game would be an ok alternative as we have a high RPI to probably get a 2 seed and can rest before the NCAA. Two years ago when we won the ACC we wiped out our pitching. A good trade but a trade none the less.

A very good trade when you consider that we were a bubble team likely to miss the NCAA tournament if we didn't win it.

 

[RoosterJacket]

Thanks @MWBATL !

If we finish 7th-10th, I think the team we least want to face in the play-in game is UNC because they could throw Bukauskus at us. He's the one pitcher from those remaining teams I wouldn't want to face in a win or go home scenario. Although, Bukauskus is slated to pitch today, so that would be a quick turnaround for him, so they may not pitch him Tuesday anyways.

 

[RoosterJacket]

From my calculations, one win today definitely gets us in the ACCT.

To get a bye, we must win both games today AND: Clemson loses today OR NCST loses today; otherwise we get in as a 7th-10th seed.

If we lose both, we could still make the tourney if Wake or UNC loses today. If both of them win and we lose two, that's the only way we don't make the ACCT.

Let me if know the above is correct.

Today's standings:
5) Clemson 15-14
6) NCST 14-13
7) Duke 14-15
8) GT 13-14
9) Wake 13-16 owns tiebreaker over NC
10) UNC 13-16
11) BC 11-15
12) ND 11-16

 

[MWBATL]

Well, last night's other ACC games pretty much settled most everything, I am afraid.

At the moment, GT is sitting in 8th place, with WF and UNC in the last two spots. Clemson and N C State are 1 full game ahead of us in the standings, and Duke is ahead by % points (but that's kind of meaningless...who cares if you finish 7th or 8th?).

For things to change much (for us) it would take GT sweeping today and Clemson and/or NC State losing. I am not sure who wins a tiebreaker between us and N C State if we only get in one game (and win) and N C State loses.

On the downside, if we get swept, we're out unless UNC OR WF loses. Another way of saying that is that 4 games today would have to go a certain way for us to be eliminated...we lose 2 and both UNC and WF win (or WF gets rained out). We win one game and we're in.

By far, the likeliest outcome is that we finish somewhere in the 7-10 pack. BC is the only team with a chance to sneak into the tournament (Notre Dame was eliminated last night) and that is only if both games get played today and they sweep us.

Rainouts elsewhere might muddy the picture a bit..I haven't listed those scenarios. (Example, we get swept and WF gets rained out...we would finish with identical 13-16 records and WF would win the tiebreaker, leaving us exposed to the outcome of the UNC-NC State game).

As a footnote, if we end up tied with N C State, good luck figuring out who wins that tiebreaker. We did not face each other...they did not play Miami, we did not play Louisville, we both went winless against FSU (we went 0-3, they went 0-1...would this mean they win?) and both of us went 1-2 against Virginia..if the FSU series is considered a tie because both of us went 0.000 in our series, then we win because we beat Clemson 2 of 3 and N C State lost 2 of 3.

Dizzy yet?

 

[MWBATL]

Well, last night's other ACC games pretty much settled most everything, I am afraid.

At the moment, GT is sitting in 8th place, with WF and UNC in the last two spots. Clemson and N C State are 1 full game ahead of us in the standings, and Duke is ahead by % points (but that's kind of meaningless...who cares if you finish 7th or 8th?).

For things to change much (for us) it would take GT sweeping today and Clemson and/or NC State losing. I am not sure who wins a tiebreaker between us and N C State if we only get in one game (and win) and N C State loses.

On the downside, if we get swept, we're out unless UNC OR WF loses. Another way of saying that is that 4 games today would have to go a certain way for us to be eliminated...we lose 2 and both UNC and WF win (or WF gets rained out). We win one game and we're in.

By far, the likeliest outcome is that we finish somewhere in the 7-10 pack. BC is the only team with a chance to sneak into the tournament (Notre Dame was eliminated last night) and that is only if both games get played today and they sweep us.

Rainouts elsewhere might muddy the picture a bit..I haven't listed those scenarios. (Example, we get swept and WF gets rained out...we would finish with identical 13-16 records and WF would win the tiebreaker, leaving us exposed to the outcome of the UNC-NC State game).

As a footnote, if we end up tied with N C State, good luck figuring out who wins that tiebreaker. We did not face each other...they did not play Miami, we did not play Louisville, we both went winless against FSU (we went 0-3, they went 0-1...would this mean they win?) and both of us went 1-2 against Virginia..if the FSU series is considered a tie because both of us went 0.000 in our series, then we win because we beat Clemson 2 of 3 and N C State lost 2 of 3.

Dizzy yet?

One other footnote...we currently are #16 in the RPI. A sweep or a rainout keeps us there, I think. A loss drops us out.

 

[FredJacket]

From my calculations, one win today definitely gets us in the ACCT.

To get a bye, we must win both games today AND: Clemson loses today OR NCST loses today; otherwise we get in as a 7th-10th seed.

If we lose both, we could still make the tourney if Wake or UNC loses today. If both of them win and we lose two, that's the only way we don't make the ACCT.

Let me if know the above is correct.

Today's standings:
5) Clemson 15-14
6) NCST 14-13
7) Duke 14-15
8) GT 13-14
9) Wake 13-16 owns tiebreaker over NC
10) UNC 13-16
11) BC 11-15
12) ND 11-16

Well, last night's other ACC games pretty much settled most everything, I am afraid.

At the moment, GT is sitting in 8th place, with WF and UNC in the last two spots. Clemson and N C State are 1 full game ahead of us in the standings, and Duke is ahead by % points (but that's kind of meaningless...who cares if you finish 7th or 8th?).

For things to change much (for us) it would take GT sweeping today and Clemson and/or NC State losing. I am not sure who wins a tiebreaker between us and N C State if we only get in one game (and win) and N C State loses.

On the downside, if we get swept, we're out unless UNC OR WF loses. Another way of saying that is that 4 games today would have to go a certain way for us to be eliminated...we lose 2 and both UNC and WF win (or WF gets rained out). We win one game and we're in.

By far, the likeliest outcome is that we finish somewhere in the 7-10 pack. BC is the only team with a chance to sneak into the tournament (Notre Dame was eliminated last night) and that is only if both games get played today and they sweep us.

Rainouts elsewhere might muddy the picture a bit..I haven't listed those scenarios. (Example, we get swept and WF gets rained out...we would finish with identical 13-16 records and WF would win the tiebreaker, leaving us exposed to the outcome of the UNC-NC State game).

As a footnote, if we end up tied with N C State, good luck figuring out who wins that tiebreaker. We did not face each other...they did not play Miami, we did not play Louisville, we both went winless against FSU (we went 0-3, they went 0-1...would this mean they win?) and both of us went 1-2 against Virginia..if the FSU series is considered a tie because both of us went 0.000 in our series, then we win because we beat Clemson 2 of 3 and N C State lost 2 of 3.

Dizzy yet?

I think you guys got it if all games are played. The NC State thing is simple. We did play them and lost twice. They get that tiebreaker.

WF owns a tiebreaker over us too... I think... You can't use MIA, LOU, UVA (same record against or not common opponent) but FSU was common and WF beat them twice while we were swept.