ACC Tournament 2021

[FredJacket]

Well, following snidleys #butthurt theme, I will complain the we have to play the late game on Wed and then come back & play mid day the next day. Absolutely no reason for that (although I guess it’s not much different than a regular Sat/Sun game. But no good reason (except for the ole Tobacco Road middle finger) since Pitt vs NCST has Pitt who hasn’t played since tuesday night and NCST who is playing their first game in the late game on Thursday. No reason they could t play the 1pm game.

Put on your mask... you're catching #snidleywhiplassbutthurtitis

@SnidelyWhiplash

 

[gtrower]

Well, following snidleys #butthurt theme, I will complain the we have to play the late game on Wed and then come back & play mid day the next day. Absolutely no reason for that (although I guess it’s not much different than a regular Sat/Sun game. But no good reason (except for the ole Tobacco Road middle finger) since Pitt vs NCST has Pitt who hasn’t played since tuesday night and NCST who is playing their first game in the late game on Thursday. No reason they could t play the 1pm game.

One of those games in meaningless for us and we’ll already know which one it is. So there shouldn’t be any pitching consequences at all playing back to back. If Clemson wins the first game we can literally empty our bench against Louisville. And vice versa.

There’s always gonna be some unfortunate situations with 12 teams playing 12 games in 4 days. We have it better than almost anybody else in the tourney.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Well, following snidleys #butthurt theme, I will complain the we have to play the late game on Wed and then come back & play mid day the next day. Absolutely no reason for that (although I guess it’s not much different than a regular Sat/Sun game. But no good reason (except for the ole Tobacco Road middle finger) since Pitt vs NCST has Pitt who hasn’t played since tuesday night and NCST who is playing their first game in the late game on Thursday. No reason they could t play the 1pm game.

You’re not wrong. Eliminate the worthless games, and then you have time to schedule everything more evenly.

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

One of those games in meaningless for us and we’ll already know which one it is. So there shouldn’t be any pitching consequences at all playing back to back. If Clemson wins the first game we can literally empty our bench against Louisville. And vice versa.

There’s always gonna be some unfortunate situations with 12 teams playing 12 games in 4 days. We have it better than almost anybody else in the tourney.

I disagree. The games may be meaningless to us fans, but are not to the players. The players want to win every game they play, otherwise they would not be where they are. They want to win EVERY game they play. Therefore, so do I.

 

[gtrower]

I disagree. The games may be meaningless to us fans, but are not to the players. The players want to win every game they play, otherwise they would not be where they are. They want to win EVERY game they play. Therefore, so do I.

That’s neat and all. The game is meaningless to the standings. Thus it would be negligent for the coaches to throw any pitchers needed to win the game we actually need to win. So yeah, whoever’s playing should try to win. But if we throw Hurter, Archer, Grissom, Maxwell, or Bartnicki against the team that loses Tuesday then we’re stupid and don’t deserve to win the ACCT (or any tournament).

 

[FredJacket]

That’s neat and all. The game is meaningless to the standings. Thus it would be negligent for the coaches to throw any pitchers needed to win the game we actually need to win. So yeah, whoever’s playing should try to win. But if we throw Hurter, Archer, Grissom, Maxwell, or Bartnicki against the team that loses Tuesday then CDH is an idiot.

CDH isn't an idiot.
... he won't throw starters. But bullpen guys get "work" on days between games. If it happens to be in a "meaningless" ACC Tournament game... that's a good thing.

 

[gtrower]

CDH isn't an idiot.
... he won't throw starters. But bullpen guys get "work" on days between games. If it happens to be in a "meaningless" ACC Tournament game... that's a good thing.

I ninja edited. But apparently not ninja enough for @FredJacket. If Lville wins Tuesday we should 100% not be wasting Maxwell/Bartnicki against Clemson on Wednesday. If Clemson wins we beat them Wednesday and we feel like getting guys work on Thursday with an off day Friday then whatever.

The point is one of the games is meaningless. And the coaches should treat it as such. It would be very dumb not to.

 

[senoiajacket]

That’s neat and all. The game is meaningless to the standings. Thus it would be negligent for the coaches to throw any pitchers needed to win the game we actually need to win. So yeah, whoever’s playing should try to win. But if we throw Hurter, Archer, Grissom, Maxwell, or Bartnicki against the team that loses Tuesday then we’re stupid and don’t deserve to win the ACCT (or any tournament).

Pitching notwithstanding, and even if the game is “meaningless” in the pool play results, it still must be played. So if loserville beats CU and then, our “meaningless” game with Clemson goes 14 innings and doesn’t get over until midnight (shoot, these days a nine inning game can last 4 hours) and then we have to turn around and play our “meaningful” game at 1pm the next day ........... that could adversely affect our play.

 

[FredJacket]

I ninja edited. But apparently not ninja enough for @FredJacket. If Lville wins Tuesday we should 100% not be wasting Maxwell/Bartnicki against Clemson on Wednesday. If Clemson wins we beat them Wednesday and we feel like getting guys work on Thursday with an off day Friday then whatever.

The point is one of the games is meaningless. And the coaches should treat it as such. It would be very dumb not to.

Why is it wasting them? They pitch on the Charlotte mound for 10-20 pitches... in a real game against a real opponent.

The schedule is perfect. Whatever you do... definitely don't "burn" those guys in a meaningless (for tournament purposes) game. Ga Tech has Fri off in this tournament. Very huge.

Either we're out ... on Thurs... or have Fri to rest pen for weekend run at ACC title!!

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

That’s neat and all. The game is meaningless to the standings. Thus it would be negligent for the coaches to throw any pitchers needed to win the game we actually need to win. So yeah, whoever’s playing should try to win. But if we throw Hurter, Archer, Grissom, Maxwell, or Bartnicki against the team that loses Tuesday then we’re stupid and don’t deserve to win the ACCT (or any tournament).

What "standings" are you referring to? We are already the #2 team in the ACC. I agree that we need to use our pitching judiciously, but at this point we have an RPI of 42, just behind #41 UGA, according to D1Baseball. So any win that we get is critical to our eventual standing in the NCAA tournament. Can we get to a #1 seed at another host's site? Where will we be a #2. All decided by how many games we win in the ACC tournament. So no game for us in not important.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

What "standings" are you referring to? We are already the #2 team in the ACC. I agree that we need to use our pitching judiciously, but at this point we have an RPI of 42, just behind #41 UGA, according to D1Baseball. So any win that we get is critical to our eventual standing in the NCAA tournament. Can we get to a #1 seed at another host's site? Where will we be a #2. All decided by how many games we win in the ACC tournament. So no game for us in not important.

Duke has a #29 RPI and Louisville is #66. With essentially the same record. RPI to me appears to be worthless.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Think that'll be the approach for all the game 1's? Save your ace for the game against your pod's top seed?

If I'm FSU, Lville, UVA, or UNC; I'm thinking one win in the ACCT secures my NCAA bid. I might pitch my ace in game one in hopes of locking that up.

Agree about the case of 1-1 gets the NCAA bid but 0-2 doesn't. We'll see what happens starting tomorrow My predictions (to be proven wrong) are below.

FSU - at 20-16 ACC, in no question. Save ace, go for tourney win.
L'Ville - at 16-16 and 67 rpi needs more than 1-1 probably. So save ace to go for 2-1 or better.
UVa - 18-18 ACC and 44 rpi is probably in regardless. Playing VT first game which is the rivalry. I'd probably throw ace against VT.
UNC - 18-18 ACC and 45 rpi is probably in regardless. Playing rival NC State second so save ace (Love).
Duke - 16-17 but 27 rpi (due to great OOC). Probably OK with rpi though. They could throw ace to start and assure 1-1. As I recall, Duke is deep and even in pitching so not a lot of difference.
Pitt - 16-17 ACC, 48 rpi and 6 game losing streak. They need to win a game! They probably also need to save their ace to have a shot at going 2-1.

D1 ACC Nerdcast yesterday that I'm listening to is hilarious. They called this year's ACC Tournament "The Life Raft Tournament". Also bipolar league. They think the tourney is very important to L'Ville, UVa, UNC, Duke & Pitt and called them bubble teams.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Agree about the case of 1-1 gets the NCAA bid but 0-2 doesn't. We'll see what happens starting tomorrow My predictions (to be proven wrong) are below.

FSU - at 20-16 ACC, in no question. Save ace, go for tourney win.
L'Ville - at 16-16 and 67 rpi needs more than 1-1 probably. So save ace to go for 2-1 or better.
UVa - 18-18 ACC and 44 rpi is probably in regardless. Playing VT first game which is the rivalry. I'd probably throw ace against VT.
UNC - 18-18 ACC and 45 rpi is probably in regardless. Playing rival NC State second so save ace (Love).
Duke - 16-17 but 27 rpi (due to great OOC). Probably OK with rpi though. They could throw ace to start and assure 1-1. As I recall, Duke is deep and even in pitching so not a lot of difference.
Pitt - 16-17 ACC, 48 rpi and 6 game losing streak. They need to win a game! They probably also need to save their ace to have a shot at going 2-1.

D1 ACC Nerdcast yesterday that I'm listening to is hilarious. They called this year's ACC Tournament "The Life Raft Tournament". Also bipolar league. They think the tourney is very important to L'Ville, UVa, UNC, Duke & Pitt and called them bubble teams.

Duke and Louisville have nearly identical conference and out of conference records.

 

[THWG]

Does anybody know Crawford's status? We're going to need him to make a deep run.

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

Duke has a #29 RPI and Louisville is #66. With essentially the same record. RPI to me appears to be worthless.

I agree regarding RPI, but the committee can use it as a crutch to pick and seed teams at times. Based on D1Baseball's analysis of the 20 teams that could be host sites, they did that more than usual this year. That concerns me.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I agree regarding RPI, but the committee can use it as a crutch to pick and seed teams at times. Based on D1Baseball's analysis of the 20 teams that could be host sites, they did that more than usual this year. That concerns me.

"Luckily" (not sure what that means, but I just typed it), it won't matter this year so much, because I don't think we deserve a #1 seed. Our OOC was just too much ***. I guess it could hurt us if we get a #3 seed when we deserve a #2 seed. But either way the 2 and 3 play each other, so its not really a handicap that I can see...I guess we might play a team ranked #25 nationally instead of #35 nationally, but . But, it does give @PerpetualButthurt (the ID I wish I could change to) something to whine about.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Duke and Louisville have nearly identical conference and out of conference records.

For @FredJacket and @SnidelyWhiplash . Yup, exactly right. But the OOC SOS for Louisville is 208th while 19th for Duke. L'Ville lost to 3 quadrant 4 teams while Duke lost to none and took care of business. Dukes losses have mostly been "quality" loses to top quadrant teams. Below is the detailed comparison.

Looking at this at a high level, the RPI for Duke overall is .5665 and Louisville is .533. So RPI is really saying that Duke, based on who they played, is 56.65% likely to beat the average team on a neutral field. Louisville is 53.32%. So Duke is 3% more likely to win that theoretical average team on a neutral field.

Seems reasonable to me. The problem is probably that people are (and have been expecting) rpi to be a much more exact metric. The problem is that there is a massive variability in who can win on any given day. (i.e. bi-polar) I think it's only good to maybe +/- 20 spots depending on how congested the rpis are for surrounding teams. It's a crap shoot, but find one substantially better other than people's eye test. (Someone else can look at the compression this year versus previous years.)

 

[Deleted member 2897]

For @FredJacket and @SnidelyWhiplash . Yup, exactly right. But the OOC SOS for Louisville is 208th while 19th for Duke. L'Ville lost to 3 quadrant 4 teams while Duke lost to none and took care of business. Dukes losses have mostly been "quality" loses to top quadrant teams. Below is the detailed comparison.

Looking at this at a high level, the RPI for Duke overall is .5665 and Louisville is .533. So RPI is really saying that Duke, based on who they played, is 56.65% likely to beat the average team on a neutral field. Louisville is 53.32%. So Duke is 3% more likely to win that theoretical average team on a neutral field.

Seems reasonable to me. The problem is probably that people are (and have been expecting) rpi to be a much more exact metric. The problem is that there is a massive variability in who can win on any given day. (i.e. bi-polar) I think it's only good to maybe +/- 20 spots depending on how congested the rpis are for surrounding teams. It's a crap shoot, but find one substantially better other than people's eye test. (Someone else can look at the compression this year versus previous years.)

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Posted on another thread, but when I look at the data, Duke's SOS is only marginally better than Louisville (posted the full detail over there). Here are the high level details:

ACC: Louisville 16-16, Duke 16-17
OOC: Louisville 11-5, Duke 12-3
Overall: Louisville 27-21, Duke 28-20.
Against Top 50: Louisville 2-0, Duke 4-3.
Against Top 100: Louisville 4-2, Duke 6-3.

I mean, I can argue either one is better than the other (I would argue Duke is marginally better), but not enough for one to have a #28 RPI and the other a #67 RPI.

 

[gtrower]

What "standings" are you referring to? We are already the #2 team in the ACC. I agree that we need to use our pitching judiciously, but at this point we have an RPI of 42, just behind #41 UGA, according to D1Baseball. So any win that we get is critical to our eventual standing in the NCAA tournament. Can we get to a #1 seed at another host's site? Where will we be a #2. All decided by how many games we win in the ACC tournament. So no game for us in not important.

The standings of the pool. As the top seed in the pool we only need to beat the winner of the UL/Clemson game to advance to the semis. That might be the disconnect here.

 

[FredJacket]

Here's my predictions on pool winners:
A - UVA
B - Ga Tech
C - NC State
D - Duke

Truth is... any team in bottom 8 can win 2 & advance. Obviously, the top 4 have to only win the 1 game that matters. Pretty wide open.

ETA... 3 teams will be eliminated today.