ACC Standings

[Randy Carson]

I actually think it is the reverse.
The potential fallacy in their position is that they are treating the portal as a one way stop and it is not.
While players who are not contributing at the blue blood schools are transferring out, they are offsetting this by bringing in guys who are playing at other schools.
My belief is that the blue bloods are coming out on the better end of the deal.

If you look at the teams that are serious contenders for the CFP, it is largely the same set of schools every year. Mostly the Top 10 schools in terms of revenue. There is the odd school year to year, but nothing that suggests that it is becoming a more even playing field. If anything, the field appears to be tipping to the highest revenue schools.

If we consider MLB as an analogous scenario, the best players move up from Richmond to Atlanta while those who aren't performing at the highest levels get sent down.

And as much as it pains me to say it, Tech (along with a lot of other schools our size) are the AAA of CFB because of revenue disparity.

 

[Randy Carson]

There is no formula. Every college kid has different priorities and decision matrices.

Some simply want PT or part of "something"
Some DO think about the "degree"
Some seek location/school atmosphere
Some seek a ring/championship (don't worry about hitting field)
Some want to be close to home (or in a specific program)

... we seem to project what we would do onto kids without considering other possibilities.

Why would someone want a ring if they never got on the field?

To earn my letter (in high school track ), I had to actually win some points for the team at meets.

 

[Thwg777]

Yep. Always managing to inexplicably get preseason votes is a luxury Tech never gets.

Agree. And I believe it’s been a component of why our scheduling is so difficult each year for the past few decades. While it’s so difficult to get 10+ wins, we’d need to do so against a difficult schedule since we always start off so low in rankings…

I know I’m convoluting threads but with the playoff expansion, we should aim lower and get an incrementally simpler schedule. Which is precisely what we have in 2025+. I know that’s not a popular opinion but it gives us a better shot at the ACC and being top 12 is ‘good enough’ to be a playoff team.

I really don’t think the 2024 schedule is as ominous as it seems given all the uncertainty of QB play of our opponents. We have to deal with Todd’s parting ‘gift’ of 5 home games but our team has been road warriors.

 

[Randy Carson]

But isn't this what UNC does every year? Seems like they always finish each season with a 4 game losing streak.

If UNC ever gets serious about winning in football like they did in basketball, they will be a force to be reckoned with at the highest level.

State flagship university, big alumni base, lots of money.

Basically, UGA in blue. Carolina blue.

 

[Bogey]

We lost to four teams that were probably the better team at the time of the game. I still see the BG and BC games as head scratchers. What we we thinking heading in to those games?

Don't forget these games are being played by a bunch of teenagers and 20 year olds whose main battle is with their schools to stay eligible, at least for the non-factories. This is what makes college football so interesting and Is being threatened in today's world, and will somedsy cause a big split.

 

[stech81]

If UNC ever gets serious about winning in football like they did in basketball, they will be a force to be reckoned with at the highest level.

State flagship university, big alumni base, lots of money.

Basically, UGA in blue. Carolina blue.

I agree they could be good, but the team I fear the most in a few years (if it takes that long is SMU) they did it before and now it is legal to pay players and they have the money.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

I agree they could be good, but the team I fear the most in a few years (if it takes that long is SMU) they did it before and now it is legal to pay players and they have the money.

Eric Dickerson likes this post.

 

[RamblinRed]

Here is how I would rank the teams this season.
FSU
L'ville
NC ST
VT
Clemson
GT
Duke
UNC
Miami
BC
Pitt
Syracuse
UVA
Wake

While GT tied for 4th with VT, GT's PPG differential looks more like a 4-4 type team (which makes sense given the gift Miami win). So I would give VT the edge there.
Clemson beat GT really solidly so I also spot them ahead.
The job Elko has done at Duke is really impressive and was even more impressive in this 7-5 year than last year's 9-4 team imo. They played almost 1/2 a season without their best offensive player - Leonard, had a more difficult schedule this season and beat NC ST 24-3 and lost to UNC 47-45 in double OT at Chapel Hill without Leonard.
UNC seemed to do the typical UNC stuff. Started hot and then cooled off considerably.
Miami is not back yet.
Doreen is a very good coach who did a very good job of managing that NC ST squad this season.
BC had a solid season overall.

I tend to believe most teams over 12 games end up pretty close to what they really are in terms of record. 6-6 for GT feels about right. There is really only one 'could've should've win' type game this season - that was L'ville. That was a 1 possession game in the 4th quarter and GT had the ball. On the flip side Miami was most definitely a 'could've should've loss' game. I don't consider BC or BG to be 'could've should've' games. GT was not in position to win either of those games. Both of those teams really exploited the biggest flaw on GT's team this year.
Most teams can argue about maybe one more win or loss, but overall most teams end up with a record that is pretty indicative of what the team is.

FWIW, the biggest outlier this year would be Iowa. They went 10-2 and avg less than 250 yds per game of offense. The previous most wins for a team that avg less than 250 yds of offense per game was 4.

 

[4shotB]

If UNC ever gets serious about winning in football like they did in basketball, they will be a force to be reckoned with at the highest level.

State flagship university, big alumni base, lots of money.

Basically, UGA in blue. Carolina blue.

I disagree somewhat with the comparisons to Uga.i don't think the state has the same level of HS FB (and therefore recruits) plus they compete with State, Wake, Duke, App State, East Carolina for recruiting in that state. The pie is sliced much smaller there than in Georgia.

 

[4shotB]

FWIW, the biggest outlier this year would be Iowa. They went 10-2 and avg less than 250 yds per game of offense. The previous most wins for a team that avg less than 250 yds of offense per game was 4.

Iowa is this year's GT in reverse and on steroids. Since Iowa is not known as a destination type school for blue chip athletes, is there anyone here who follows the Big 10 or Iowa specifically that can speak to their D success. this is not a one off year for them as I remember them taking a CPJ team behind the woodshed a few years back in a bowl game. Is it all scheme? Recruiting to a system? @BilldGopher can you comment? I will hang up and listen.

 

[stinger78]

If we consider MLB as an analogous scenario, the best players move up from Richmond to Atlanta while those who aren't performing at the highest levels get sent down.

And as much as it pains me to say it, Tech (along with a lot of other schools our size) are the AAA of CFB because of revenue disparity.

What is this Richmond you speak of?

 

[Root4GT]

Here is how I would rank the teams this season.
FSU
L'ville
NC ST
VT
Clemson
GT
Duke
UNC
Miami
BC
Pitt
Syracuse
UVA
Wake

While GT tied for 4th with VT, GT's PPG differential looks more like a 4-4 type team (which makes sense given the gift Miami win). So I would give VT the edge there.
Clemson beat GT really solidly so I also spot them ahead.
The job Elko has done at Duke is really impressive and was even more impressive in this 7-5 year than last year's 9-4 team imo. They played almost 1/2 a season without their best offensive player - Leonard, had a more difficult schedule this season and beat NC ST 24-3 and lost to UNC 47-45 in double OT at Chapel Hill without Leonard.
UNC seemed to do the typical UNC stuff. Started hot and then cooled off considerably.
Miami is not back yet.
Doreen is a very good coach who did a very good job of managing that NC ST squad this season.
BC had a solid season overall.

I tend to believe most teams over 12 games end up pretty close to what they really are in terms of record. 6-6 for GT feels about right. There is really only one 'could've should've win' type game this season - that was L'ville. That was a 1 possession game in the 4th quarter and GT had the ball. On the flip side Miami was most definitely a 'could've should've loss' game. I don't consider BC or BG to be 'could've should've' games. GT was not in position to win either of those games. Both of those teams really exploited the biggest flaw on GT's team this year.
Most teams can argue about maybe one more win or loss, but overall most teams end up with a record that is pretty indicative of what the team is.

FWIW, the biggest outlier this year would be Iowa. They went 10-2 and avg less than 250 yds per game of offense. The previous most wins for a team that avg less than 250 yds of offense per game was 4.

Good post. I think there are 3 tiers. FSU, Louisville and NCST in the top tier.

Pitt, Cuse, Wake and UVA in the bottom tier and the other 8 teams you can put in any order you want, not much difference though Clemson is likely the best of the bunch even though they had 4 losses.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Iowa is this year's GT in reverse and on steroids. Since Iowa is not known as a destination type school for blue chip athletes, is there anyone here who follows the Big 10 or Iowa specifically that can speak to their D success. this is not a one off year for them as I remember them taking a CPJ team behind the woodshed a few years back in a bowl game. Is it all scheme? Recruiting to a system? @BilldGopher can you comment? I will hang up and listen.

Agree that their defenses have seemed above average to great since forever.

 

[Randy Carson]

I disagree somewhat with the comparisons to Uga.i don't think the state has the same level of HS FB (and therefore recruits) plus they compete with State, Wake, Duke, App State, East Carolina for recruiting in that state. The pie is sliced much smaller there than in Georgia.

Two thoughts:

1. NC is now the 10th most populous state in the nation, and it' still growing.
2. GA is surrounded on all sides by strong football programs. A kid in GA could be courted by Auburn, Tennessee, Clemson, FSU...quite a bit different from being recruited by App State or ECU.

Duke and Wake simply aren't big enough to compete with what UNC could become if they get the right head coach.

 

[Randy Carson]

What is this Richmond you speak of?

LOL.

Are you saying I'm getting old?

But I would have preferred being sent down to the Richmond Braves over the Gwinnett Stripers.

 

[slugboy]

Here is how I would rank the teams this season.
FSU
L'ville
NC ST
VT
Clemson
GT
Duke
UNC
Miami
BC
Pitt
Syracuse
UVA
Wake

While GT tied for 4th with VT, GT's PPG differential looks more like a 4-4 type team (which makes sense given the gift Miami win). So I would give VT the edge there.
Clemson beat GT really solidly so I also spot them ahead.
The job Elko has done at Duke is really impressive and was even more impressive in this 7-5 year than last year's 9-4 team imo. They played almost 1/2 a season without their best offensive player - Leonard, had a more difficult schedule this season and beat NC ST 24-3 and lost to UNC 47-45 in double OT at Chapel Hill without Leonard.
UNC seemed to do the typical UNC stuff. Started hot and then cooled off considerably.
Miami is not back yet.
Doreen is a very good coach who did a very good job of managing that NC ST squad this season.
BC had a solid season overall.

I tend to believe most teams over 12 games end up pretty close to what they really are in terms of record. 6-6 for GT feels about right. There is really only one 'could've should've win' type game this season - that was L'ville. That was a 1 possession game in the 4th quarter and GT had the ball. On the flip side Miami was most definitely a 'could've should've loss' game. I don't consider BC or BG to be 'could've should've' games. GT was not in position to win either of those games. Both of those teams really exploited the biggest flaw on GT's team this year.
Most teams can argue about maybe one more win or loss, but overall most teams end up with a record that is pretty indicative of what the team is.

FWIW, the biggest outlier this year would be Iowa. They went 10-2 and avg less than 250 yds per game of offense. The previous most wins for a team that avg less than 250 yds of offense per game was 4.

Iowa may have more punt yards than offensive yards this season. They’ve definitely had games with more punt yards

That it’s even in the realm of possibility for a 10-2 team is stunning

 

[RonJohn]

Two thoughts:

1. NC is now the 10th most populous state in the nation, and it' still growing.
2. GA is surrounded on all sides by strong football programs. A kid in GA could be courted by Auburn, Tennessee, Clemson, FSU...quite a bit different from being recruited by App State or ECU.

Duke and Wake simply aren't big enough to compete with what UNC could become if they get the right head coach.

However, I have to say that I have heard the same thing for 20-30 years. It is almost like Miami, but not quite as bad. ---- They are the sleeping giant..... They only need one more piece...... They only need the right HC..... They are back to the top of the college football world..oh wait, ---- then repeat the entire mantra.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Two thoughts:

1. NC is now the 10th most populous state in the nation, and it' still growing.
2. GA is surrounded on all sides by strong football programs. A kid in GA could be courted by Auburn, Tennessee, Clemson, FSU...quite a bit different from being recruited by App State or ECU.

Duke and Wake simply aren't big enough to compete with what UNC could become if they get the right head coach.

I understand your point but UNC would still have to compete for recruits in Florida and Georgia to get to elite status and that’s a lot of competition for recruits they’re up against.

 

[Randy Carson]

However, I have to say that I have heard the same thing for 20-30 years. It is almost like Miami, but not quite as bad. ---- They are the sleeping giant..... They only need one more piece...... They only need the right HC..... They are back to the top of the college football world..oh wait, ---- then repeat the entire mantra.

I did say "If."

 

[stinger78]

However, I have to say that I have heard the same thing for 20-30 years. It is almost like Miami, but not quite as bad. ---- They are the sleeping giant..... They only need one more piece...... They only need the right HC..... They are back to the top of the college football world..oh wait, ---- then repeat the entire mantra.

The bottom line is UNC’s focus is, and always will be, basketball. That is what holds them back in all other sports. They could be great in baseball, too, if they really wanted to be. The AFAM studies “curriculum” was a basketball creation after all was said and done.