ACC Discussion 2020-21

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Louisville finishes @Virginia Tech and Virginia. They may lose out to finish 8-6. If we go 1-1 we finish 10-7 and finish ahead of that. Duke finished at us and against UNC. They could lose out to, but as long as we go at least 1-1, we finish ahead of them too if they go 1-1. Going 2-0 looks like a requirement to finish in 5th because Clemson will probably win out. But even an okay 1-1 finish looks like a high chance of finishing 6th. Either gives us a good matchup in the ACCT.
 

lv20gt

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Duke may be better without Jalen Johnson but IMO I think he's a big piece for them against us. With him, it would be hard for us to focus too much on Hurt and they could usually get a size advantage somewhere with one of them. As it is now they could still do it with Wendell Moore but I don't think he's as good. Overall I think our guards can make it hard on theirs to get the ball to Hurt in a good position consistently, and either Moore or Ush can do a good job making life difficult for him.

I think if we can hit our shots we should beat Duke. Here's hoping a relatively quite game for Jose + him having not beat Duke + last home games = game of the ages for him. I'd love for him to go completely crazy against them.
 

lauraee

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Question-
bwelbo said:
Louisville finishes @Virginia Tech and Virginia. They may lose out to finish 8-6. If we go 1-1 we finish 10-7 and finish ahead of that. Duke finished at us and against UNC. They could lose out to, but as long as we go at least 1-1, we finish ahead of them too if they go 1-1. Going 2-0 looks like a requirement to finish in 5th because Clemson will probably win out. But even an okay 1-1 finish looks like a high chance of finishing 6th. Either gives us a good matchup in the ACCT.
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ACC tourney seeding by winning % correct?
 

Deleted member 2897

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lauraee said:
Question-

ACC tourney seeding by winning % correct?
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I believe so. Which is unfortunate because for example a 9-6 team gets seeded higher than a 10-7 team. We’re getting clobbered in the standings for not playing Boston College twice. If we were currently 11-6 we’d be on cruise control. (And 15-8 overall and getting votes for being ranked.)
 

CINCYMETJACKET

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bwelbo said:
I believe so. Which is unfortunate because for example a 9-6 team gets seeded higher than a 10-7 team. We’re getting clobbered in the standings for not playing Boston College twice. If we were currently 11-6 we’d be on cruise control. (And 15-8 overall and getting votes for being ranked.)
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Doesn't matter. Beat Duke, beat Wake we're 11-6 in conference and in good shape.
 

Jacketman99

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lv20gt said:
IMO there are two factors that work against Moses, kind of intertwined. One is that for most of the year Jose was seen as the best player on the team. The second is that Moses gets a lot of finishes off lobs or dump offs. Not that should be held against him, but those type of plays are often seen as being more about the guy doing the driving rather than the finishing.

If you look at the other contenders (Hurt, Champaigne, Jones) they've been the clear best players for their teams all year.
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I understand what you are saying but that also shortchanges his other improvements offensively from shooting the jumper to his post moves to get baskets. Also Moses does much more than just score the basketball. He is top 5 in the league in points, rebounds, and blocks and top 10 in steals. I know he won't win but he should get some consideration and definitely deserves All ACC recognition.
 

g0lftime

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At best we get one guy on first team and probably it would be Jose. Moses should at least be second team.
 

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bwelbo said:
Here's what I'm thinking for final standings, based on current schedules:
1) Virginia (15-2)
2) Florida State (12-3)
3) Virginia Tech (11-5)
4) Clemson (11-5)
5) UNC (10-7)
6) Georgia Tech (10-8)
7) Duke (9-9)
8) Notre Dame (9-9)
9) Louisville (8-7)
10) Pittsburgh (8-8)
11) Syracuse (7-11)
12) NC State (6-10)
13) Wake Forest (4-14)
14) Miami (4-15)
15) Boston College (1-14)

If this held true, we'd open against Syracuse the day after the play a game, then if we win we'd play Virginia Tech. Pittsburgh or NC State might also vie for that #11 seed. and Clemson might vie for that #3 seed. Either way, those are winnable games.
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2 weeks later, and this is still a highly likely final order in the top half, absent some missing covid games. Virginia and Florida State will battle it out for #1 and #2. Spots 5 through like 9 still highly in flux.

Funny and not impossible outcome:
Georgia Tech wins out.
UNC loses to either Syracuse or Duke.
Clemson loses to either Syracuse or NC State.
Louisville beats VT but loses to Virginia.
VT loses to Louisville and NC State.

We finish #3. LOL.
 
orientalnc

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bwelbo said:
2 weeks later, and this is still a highly likely final order in the top half, absent some missing covid games. Virginia and Florida State will battle it out for #1 and #2. Spots 5 through like 9 still highly in flux.

Funny and not impossible outcome:
Georgia Tech wins out.
UNC loses to either Syracuse or Duke.
Clemson loses to either Syracuse or NC State.
Louisville beats VT but loses to Virginia.
VT loses to Louisville and NC State.

We finish #3. LOL.
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Not impossible, but here is the rub:

Syracuse played us on Saturday, then hosts UNC tonight and Clemson on Wednesday. Winning tonight is certainly more likely than beating Clemson on Wednesday.
We have seen how these games with one off night wear down teams. Mitigating that a bit is that Cuse is at home. If Clemson beats Cuse then you have to hope they lose at home to Pitt.

VT gets Louisville at home and NC State on the road. It would be nice if those were reversed. It also gets tricky if UL beats VT and then upsets a sagging UVA on the road.

I like our chances of winning out, but the rest is more problematic.
 

YlJacket

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Roy should take all of his guards out and shoot them at sunrise. don't give them a cigarette either. this should be a massacre on his part :eek::cautious:
 

lv20gt

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Jacketman99 said:
How many have played a conference schedule as tough as ours?
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We likely have the toughest conference SOS.

We've played FSU x 2
UVA x 2
@VT
@UL
Clemson x 2
UNC
@Duke
Cuse at home.

So we've played 6 of the top 7 teams on the road and 11/15 games against teams with winning conference records. It'd be hard to construct a harder schedule without being a team not in the top half of the conference.
 

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lv20gt said:
We likely have the toughest conference SOS.

We've played FSU x 2
UVA x 2
@VT
@UL
Clemson x 2
UNC
@Duke
Cuse at home.

So we've played 6 of the top 7 teams on the road and 11/15 games against teams with winning conference records. It'd be hard to construct a harder schedule without being a team not in the top half of the conference.
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We’ve played 3 games against the bottom 6 teams while Syracuse has played 9. Pretty easy to get 9 wins that way.
 
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