ACC Bowl Discussion

[Richard7125]

I see your point.

I looked up Paul Johnson’s record against the SEC and it was 5-2 if you leave out uga. Why leave out uga? Because, as you point out, most SEC team’s didn’t have a winning record against uga either. In fact, Johnson had a better record against uga than many SEC teams.

But SEC was responsible for starting that “high school offense” crap that even some Tech fans later picked up on. It really is all about the spin and no one comes close to spinning like the SEC.

I don't think other schools or conferences are leaving UGA and Bama out of their W-L calculations. I don't think other schools/conferences were leaving losses to Clemson out of their numbers when Clemson dominated for a 4 year period.

 

[slugboy]

Yeah, this year wasn’t good. http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

RANK	CONFERENCE	CENTRAL MEAN	SIMPLE AVERAGE	TEAMS	WIN50%
1	SEC	(A) = 82.04	81.75 ( 1)	16	81.75 ( 1)
2	BIG TEN	(A) = 77.72	77.47 ( 2)	18	77.47 ( 2)
3	BIG 12	(A) = 77.48	76.87 ( 3)	16	76.87 ( 3)
4	ACC	(A) = 73.08	73.29 ( 4)	17	73.29 ( 4)
5	I-A IND.	(A) = 68.85	69.82 ( 5)	3	69.82 ( 5)
6	PAC-12	(A) = 65.72	65.72 ( 6)	2	65.72 ( 6)
7	SUN BELT EAST	(A) = 64.88	64.64 ( 7)	7	64.64 ( 7)

There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.

Here we are overall:

Rank	Team	Rating	Wins	Losses	Schedule	Rank	Top 10 Wins	Top 10 Losses	Top 30 Wins	Top 30 Losses	Predictor	Rank	Golden Mean	Rank	Recent	Recent Rank	Strong Recent	Strong Recent Rank
15	Louisville	82.84	8	4	73.51(	43)	0	1	1	3	82.58	16	81.96	22	85.07	14	87.81	14	ACC
16	Miami-Florida	82.83	10	3	71.47(	58)	0	0	2	1	81.88	18	84.41	10	83.16	20	84.47	21	ACC
17	SMU	82.61	11	3	71.97(	55)	0	1	2	3	81.28	26	83.09	15	84.49	15	86.86	15	ACC
20	Clemson	81.92	10	4	72.59(	51)	0	2	1	4	81.23	27	81.79	23	83.61	18	83.41	23	ACC
35	Virginia Tech	77.81	6	6	73.33(	45)	0	0	0	2	78.17	36	76.74	39	78.88	36	79.74	36	ACC
44	Syracuse	76.25	10	3	70.50(	61)	0	0	1	0	75.54	47	76.78	38	76.43	42	78.06	41	ACC
50	Georgia Tech	74.80	7	6	74.24(	36)	0	2	1	3	75.30	48	74.06	50	74.86	50	74.75	53	ACC
53	Boston College	73.80	7	6	71.20(	60)	0	0	0	3	73.99	55	71.91	61	75.57	48	76.29	47	ACC
55	Duke	73.50	9	3	68.30(	67)	0	0	0	2	72.31	60	74.00	51	73.91	53	75.10	52	ACC
66	NC State	70.21	6	7	68.31(	66)	0	1	0	2	71.06	65	69.80	69	68.89	68	67.06	73	ACC
67	Pittsburgh	70.12	7	6	70.17(	62)	0	0	0	3	69.49	71	71.09	64	68.92	67	67.34	72	ACC
68	California	69.98	6	7	69.70(	64)	0	0	0	2	69.80	68	70.68	66	68.53	70	66.87	74	ACC
76	North Carolina	68.12	6	7	67.79(	68)	0	0	1	0	69.04	73	68.59	76	65.50	77	63.35	85	ACC
79	Virginia	67.37	5	7	72.88(	48)	0	1	0	4	66.60	82	66.27	83	68.34	72	67.65	71	ACC
82	Florida State	66.40	2	10	75.37(	21)	0	1	0	5	67.83	78	66.27	82	63.64	87	57.45	115	ACC
95	Wake Forest	64.37	4	8	70.12(	63)	0	1	0	3	63.91	98	63.44	100	64.32	84	62.70	87	ACC
100	Stanford	63.06	3	9	74.95(	27)	0	1	1	4	63.77	99	62.18	106	61.44	100	60.31	99	ACC

Purdue is worse than anyone we really have. In the SEC, Mississippi State is the worst at #75, which puts them ahead of the bottom 5 teames in the ACC. Vandy is at 52 and Kentucky is at 58, which puts them in the middle of the ACC but the bottom of the SEC.

The ACC needs to improve the worst teams in the conference, the best teams in the conference, and the average teams in the conference.

 

[Root4GT]

Why does nobody care? See, there is the crappy logic. The “conclusion” of all the inter-conference play is the “ACC” stinks and the “SEC” is far superior. Yet, the ACC wins plenty of games. Yet again, they somehow don’t count. Only the games with their best seem to count. Here’s the failure in logic: Nobody beats their best teams, not even other SEC teams.
Q: How many SEC games did Bama or UGA lose during their runs?
A: Almost none.

If the ACC is crappy for failing to beat those teams, then so is the rest of the SEC! It’s not a conference v. conference measure, it’s a top of conference measure. So stop with the “SEC is better,” crap.

Some folks say, “The ACC is a crap conference because we can’t beat their top teams.” That’s a false measure. As a conference, the ACC wins a lot of games against P4/5 teams.

As a conference we stand up pretty well. We just don’t often produce one of the top 3/4 teams in the country. However, we have had 2 teams win 3 NCs in the past decade, so we do it sometimes. That’s the real issue.

Please be accurate in your statements. Your false statements are helping the SECheat narrative and hurting GA Tech!

1-9 is 1-9. No sugar coating that disaster. No BS excuse for the Portal. The ACC flopped badly this Bowl season. It will impact how the preseason rankings play out ant it should.

 

[UgaBlows]

The ACC wets the bed often in season opening games, the ACC falls on it’s face in bowl season, the ACC blows during rivalry week, the ACC has been very bad vs. ND. There’s no PR program, better Commissioner, or any amount of spin that will help this. It is certainly entertaining to watch the competitive circle of suck during the season but only because of a parity of suckitude. Teams that join the ACC eventually succumb and tumble helplessly down into the abyss of mediocrity.

 

[MacDaddy2]

1-9 is 1-9. No sugar coating that disaster. No BS excuse for the Portal. The ACC flopped badly this Bowl season. It will impact how the preseason rankings play out ant it should.

Completely agree and also do not. This season's bowl results should have nothing to do with next year's preseason rankings. With rosters typically turning over 30 to 50% per year it would be invalid. Now if you want to look at returning production and returning starts; we have a basis for projections.

 

[Root4GT]

Completely agree and also do not. This season's bowl results should have nothing to do with next year's preseason rankings. With rosters typically turning over 30 to 50% per year it would be invalid. Now if you want to look at returning production and returning starts; we have a basis for projections.

Returning performers are the start point as well as how their team preformed with those players. Transfers make a difference but are a very big question mark. For Miami Ward was great. For FSU DJ was awful. Both were expected to be good. Ward exceeded expectations. DJ did in the wrong direction. McCord way exceeded expectations after being pushed out at Ohio State.

QB transfers are generally the most impactful ones. They are hard to judge. A lot has to do with team for.

I predict Clemson will be a Top 25 preseason and Miami might also. Outside shot for SMU. No one else from the Conference will though.

 

[forensicbuzz]

None of those wins are impressive except FSU’s. The ACC hasn’t had a winning record vs. the rest of the P5 since 2016. Every other conference has done it at least twice since then. Even the PAC 2 went 3-3 this year.

I don’t think the ACC is a weak conference throughout, it’s very competitive top to bottom every year. But the conference struggles mightily OOC. Lots of 1-score losses throughout the last several years, and an ACC team never seems to win a big game. The bottom of the conference is very weak, and the top isn’t elite as consistently as the top of the SEC and B1G. The ACC didn’t take advantage of the Clemson/FSU peak years, but also didn’t get the benefit of any media love either.

There is good football played in the ACC, but there’s also a lot of bad, more bad than what the other P5’s see in a given year IMO. The worst teams in the ACC are among the worst in all of FBS (see FSU and GT during the Collins years), that’s not always the case for the other P5’s

To truly understand the OOC records, you have to actually look at the OOC matchups. Just looking at records is misleading and doesn't really tell the story. When the Alabamas play the Dukes (historical teams) and Clemsons plays ugas, then the leagues are set to have skewed OOC matchup records. When ND gets 5 games and all are OOC, and you have a GT/uga matchup every year, the numbers tend to get skewed.

I did the exercise about 5 years ago going through and listing all the OOC P-level opponents the SEC teams played over a 10-year period versus the ACC, and it became quite obvious why the OCC records are skewed. ACC plays more top P-level teams on the road than any other P-level conference. It's not apples to apples.

 

[forensicbuzz]

1-9 is 1-9. No sugar coating that disaster. No BS excuse for the Portal. The ACC flopped badly this Bowl season. It will impact how the preseason rankings play out ant it should.

This is nonsense, the part about "it should."

 

[forensicbuzz]

Returning performers are the start point as well as how their team preformed with those players. Transfers make a difference but are a very big question mark. For Miami Ward was great. For FSU DJ was awful. Both were expected to be good. Ward exceeded expectations. DJ did in the wrong direction. McCord way exceeded expectations after being pushed out at Ohio State.

QB transfers are generally the most impactful ones. They are hard to judge. A lot has to do with team for.

I predict Clemson will be a Top 25 preseason and Miami might also. Outside shot for SMU. No one else from the Conference will though.

I'm not saying you're wrong about it having an effect on next year's polls, but it shouldn't.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

For the sake of conversation, if it's just about spin as you say, wouldn't it be possible to work and spend entirely on retaining the best PR and advertsing to create the perception that the ACC is , in fact, the superior football conference? I ask this bc I confess to having no understanding of marketing, But i find the question intriguing enough to ask.

I once stayed at a Holiday Inn Express….so…

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I don't think other schools or conferences are leaving UGA and Bama out of their W-L calculations. I don't think other schools/conferences were leaving losses to Clemson out of their numbers when Clemson dominated for a 4 year period.

You’ve lost me.

 

[stinger78]

I don't think other schools or conferences are leaving UGA and Bama out of their W-L calculations. I don't think other schools/conferences were leaving losses to Clemson out of their numbers when Clemson dominated for a 4 year period.

No other conference plays those teams like the ACC (namely GT) does. What other conference has played UGAg every year but one for the last century or so? Or UF vis. FSU? Etc. We have four annual rivalry games with UGA, USCe, UF, and UK.

 

[WreckinGT]

I don't think other schools or conferences are leaving UGA and Bama out of their W-L calculations. I don't think other schools/conferences were leaving losses to Clemson out of their numbers when Clemson dominated for a 4 year period.

Saying, we are not counting some teams in records because they are too good for us has to be the ultimate loser mentality. For gods sake just start beating them every once in a while.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Saying, we are not counting some teams in records because they are too good for us has to be the ultimate loser mentality. For gods sake just start beating them every once in a while.

People seem to have forgotten what the original argument was. So let me refresh everyone’s memory.

The SEC likes to brag they are the best conference. Many years they did this by leaving out the records of teams like Kentucky, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Mississippi State against ACC teams, while focusing on matchups like Alabama vs Duke. I agree with you completely that this is a loser mentality but somehow over the decades the SEC made this stick and their fake it till you make strategy worked.

But, yeah, it’s too late for the ACC to try the same thing. So I agree with you.

 

[4shotB]

But, yeah, it’s too late for the ACC to try the same thing. So I agree with you.

You did not respond directly to my original question (congrats on the Holiday Inn btw!) but are you saying above that this issue (league perception relative to the others) can NOT be handled strictly via better marketing and PR? If the SEC achieved their edge via this method, why is this "too late" now for the ACC. Is it a Coke vs pepsi scenario? Again, I am intrigued by these types of questions. If the SEC is superior in marketing/branding/etc. what allowed them to "get there first?" and how, when the ACC is alledgedly the better academic school has the SEC been able to identify, recruit and retrain superior senior management. We laugh at these large southern state schools but they seem to have the upper hand, at least when it comes to the business of sports.

I know we all want better head to head results. But are there also things on the business side of the ledger to move the needle? Or is this, sadly, another case where people shrug their shoulders and say iiwii ( a phrase that I very much dislike when dealing with problems that aren't insurmountable).

 

[Root4GT]

This is nonsense, the part about "it should."

No it isn’t. When you get beat like a drum you deserve to be downgraded. 1-9 deserves all the downgrading it will get

 

[stinger78]

IMPO, the SEC “mystique” is powered by the hundreds of thousands of fans scattered across the southland who, for decades, had no pro sports teams to support. Many still don’t. The local college became their sports identity, and this devotion was passed down for the next 3/4 generations to today.

 

[forensicbuzz]

No it isn’t. When you get beat like a drum you deserve to be downgraded. 1-9 deserves all the downgrading it will get

They're not the same team, so, not they don't deserve it.

 

[stinger78]

No it isn’t. When you get beat like a drum you deserve to be downgraded. 1-9 deserves all the downgrading it will get

“Beat like a drum” has nothing to do with 1-9. “Beat like a drum” is what happened to F$U after they quit before the UGAg game in the Orange Bowl last year.

Beat like a drum is not a string of very close losses!

Why can’t some of you guys figure this out? I consider it either trollish behavior or complete lack of logical thinking.

UGAg is 1-9 against Alabama in their last 10 games, but they haven’t been “beat like a drum.” Most of them have been very tight and competitive games.

Over half of those 9 ACC losses this bowl season have been very tight, competitive games. We have not gotten “beat like a drum.”

Only mental midgets think like that. IOW, your average SECheat fan.

 

[Root4GT]

“Beat like a drum” has nothing to do with 1-9. “Beat like a drum” is what happened to F$U after they quit before the UGAg game in the Orange Bowl last year.

Beat like a drum is not a string of very close losses!

Why can’t some of you guys figure this out? I consider it either trollish behavior or complete lack of logical thinking.

UGAg is 1-9 against Alabama in their last 10 games, but they haven’t been “beat like a drum.” Most of them have been very tight and competitive games.

Over half of those 9 ACC losses this bowl season have been very tight, competitive games. We have not gotten “beat like a drum.”

Only mental midgets think like that. IOW, your average SECheat fan.

Until GT/ACC teams start regularly winning hard OOC games and Bowl/CFP Games the Conference will be viewed as a weak 3rd best at most.

You can make excuses but it only fools the ACC/GT homers