ACC Baseball - 2023

[GT33]

And if Pitt and NC State don't play any games next weekend and we get swept by UVA, we're at 0.400, Pitt is at 0.400 (we have the tiebreaker) and NC State is at 0.385. So we finish ahead of both of them.

Regardless, let's just WIN and beat UVa! #9 seed as of now in the ACC tournament. Let's keep winning and make the NCAA Tournament!

Mark Teixeira jersey retirement on Saturday! I will be there! From Ohio! Who's going to join us?

NcSt is 10-15, same as Pitt, .400........ but we're 12-18 which is also .400, however in baseball standing they have 2 less wins and we have 3 more losses. That's called being 1/2 game behind in the standings.

All this is entertaining as Pitt and NcSt are damn near GUARANTEED to play a game unless there's a 3 day monsoon projected to be stationary over Raleigh this weekend. If they play 1 game, GT is in.

 

[FredJacket]

I think I am missing something:

Ga Tech min: .4 max: .5
Va Tech min: .38 max: .48
Pitt Min: .36 max: .46
NC State min: .34 max: .44
Louisville min: .3 max: .4

So, it looks like if GT gets swept, then Louisville (with tiebreaker), Va Tech, and one of Pitt/NC State could pass Ga Tech. It looks mathematically very possible for GT to not make the conference tournament. Very probable that we are in, but still many mathematical chances to not be.

This is fun. You're right... but since Pitt & NC State play each other... they both cannot "max" on your chart.

Note: I'm taking your math as accurate.

ETA... I think this explains the definition of "clinch". Mathematically (in isolation) all relevant teams can finish ahead of Tech. However... since 2 of those teams are playing each other... Ga Tech cannot finish lower than 12th.

 

[RonJohn]

This is fun. You're right... but since Pitt & NC State play each other... they both cannot "max" on your chart.

Note: I'm taking your math as accurate.

My problem was that I was thinking that two teams of the five would be left out. I wasn't thinking about there only being 14 ACC teams in baseball, so I was eliminating three teams (FSU plus two others).

It will be impossible for GT to be below the loser of the NC State/Pitt series, even if it is cancelled. So it is mathematically impossible for GT to not make the conference tourney.

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

My problem was that I was thinking that two teams of the five would be left out. I wasn't thinking about there only being 14 ACC teams in baseball, so I was eliminating three teams (FSU plus two others).

It will be impossible for GT to be below the loser of the NC State/Pitt series, even if it is cancelled. So it is mathematically impossible for GT to not make the conference tourney.

Glad to hear that, because I plan to be there. Whether Tech was there or not I am/was going.

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

An ACC baseball tournament without FSU and Louisville? Who would have predicted that at the start of the season?

 

[GTNavyNuke]

D1 "putting it out there"

We are in ACC tourney for reasons @CINCYMETJACKET said.

I think if we get within 1 game of 500 after ACC tourney we are in NCAAs. Our RPI should be in 30s if we do that.

We don't have the pitching depth as shown by riding King and Busse so hard. But that's next weeks problem.

 

[FittedJacket]

One pivotal point that hasn’t been made:
NC State got snubbed from making the Tournament last year. They currently sit at #26 in the RPI at 31-18. With three more ACC wins it improves their Tournament Resume and gets them into the ACC tournament Any cancellations would hurt their overall Tournament Resume And could push them outside of #30 in the RPI. Therefore, in a non-mathematical way but practical way of thinking like Elliot Avent, NC State will be looking to try to sweep Pitt this weekend, thereby solidifying their ACC record and their Tournament Resume. Pitt on the other hand should pray for heavy rain.

 

[Home Park Jacket]

My problem was that I was thinking that two teams of the five would be left out. I wasn't thinking about there only being 14 ACC teams in baseball, so I was eliminating three teams (FSU plus two others).

It will be impossible for GT to be below the loser of the NC State/Pitt series, even if it is cancelled. So it is mathematically impossible for GT to not make the conference tourney.

Please correct me if wrong, but If NC St. wins the series 2-1, NC St would finish 12-17 & Pitt 11-17, both would finish better than GT if GT gets swept (12-18) as NC St would be 1/2 game better and Pitt would have the better winning percentage. Thus, there's still a chance we miss, but so slim.

 

[gtbeak]

Please correct me if wrong, but If NC St. wins the series 2-1, NC St would finish 12-17 & Pitt 11-17, both would finish better than GT if GT gets swept (12-18) as NC St would be 1/2 game better and Pitt would have the better winning percentage. Thus, there's still a chance we miss, but so slim.

12-18 is .400. 11-17 is .393

 

[Home Park Jacket]

12-18 is .400. 11-17 is .393

Yep. Got it. We're good.

 

[FittedJacket]

From D1 (teams that hurt their tournament hopes)

NC State

The Wolfpack might have an RPI of 26 right now, but they would not be making the NCAA tournament field as of today after getting swept by UNC and falling to 10-16 in the ACC. NC State has the RPI — but the conference record is a massive issue, as is being 9-17 vs. RPI Top 50 teams. NC State will need to win its series this weekend and perform well in the conference tournament to make the field. It’s a tall task, but this is a team more than capable of going on a huge run next week.

 

[eokerholm]

Congrats!

 

[FredJacket]

I think the scenarios are as follows for Ga Tech's seeding for the ACC Tournament. They can be anywhere from #8 to #12... but they are IN. #8 & #12 seem extremely unlikely.

[Below assumes all ACC games are played this weekend]

#8 - Have to win 2 more games than Notre Dame.
#9 - Current spot. Will remain 9th as long as we finish with more conf wins than each of these teams (VT, Pitt, NCST, Loiusville).
#10 - See above. Only 1 of those 4 teams matches (or beats) us in conf wins.
#11 - See above. Exactly 2 of those 4 teams match (or beat) us in conf wins.
#12 - Get swept (hasn't happened at home since 2017) by UVA AND 3 of those 4 teams match (or beat) us in conf wins.

Conf schedule
UVA at Ga Tech
Pitt at NCST
VT at Wake
FSU at Loiusville
ND at BC
UNC at Clemson
Duke at Miami

[Somebody check my work]

 

[FredJacket]

I should have included records/win totals for the relevant teams:
Notre Dame 14-13
Ga Tech 12-15
Va Tech 11-15
Pitt 10-15
NC State 10-16
Louisville 9-18

 

[eokerholm]

VT ain't beating Wake... they've had pitching issues all season. Great offese, but pitching has been a struggle, especially bullpen.

UVA is going to be TOUGH!
ND-BC good series
NC St should take Pitt
Lousiville will dominate FSU (like everyone else this season)

 

[FredJacket]

As expected... but it happened immediately... Ga Tech cannot be any higher than 9th seed after the loss to UVA & ND win.

Still 9th today... but 10th, 11th, 12th are in play.

 

[bensaysitathome]

As expected... but it happened immediately... Ga Tech cannot be any higher than 9th seed after the loss to UVA & ND win.

Still 9th today... but 10th, 11th, 12th are in play.

Who would be your preferred top seed to have in our pod? Missing Wake is good, but I guess we'd prefer to see Clemson or Duke?

 

[FredJacket]

Who would be your preferred top seed to have in our pod? Missing Wake is good, but I guess we'd prefer to see Clemson or Duke?

Not really addressing your question but I just like to avoid UNC & NCST. Games against them turn into legit road games in this tournament.

Otherwise... I don't have a good enough sense of matchups for Tech.

 

[CTJacket]

Who would be your preferred top seed to have in our pod? Missing Wake is good, but I guess we'd prefer to see Clemson or Duke?

The one we can beat!

 

[gtbeak]

Who would be your preferred top seed to have in our pod? Missing Wake is good, but I guess we'd prefer to see Clemson or Duke?

You might actually want to draw Wake. You want to draw the team who has nothing really to play for as far as the NCAAs are concerned. I would put Wake at the top of that list. Plus, that would be the biggest help from a resume POV.