ACC Baseball - 2023

senoiajacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,114
Looks like to me... 12-18 gets us in the ACC Tournament. 11-19 might.

Need to get passed one of: Pitt or NC State.

Assuming no weather cancellations, both NC State and Pitt will have played fewer ACC games than Ga Tech. Therefore, we must finish with at least 1 more win than each of those teams to end up above either of them in the standings. Each of us has 8 wins right now with 3 series remaining.

Pitt series is really make or break. Good news... it's at home. Bad news... it comes at end of finals week. :)

Louisville is within reach too... but not so much. Will need to win more than them as well because they own a tiebreaker over us.
Maybe Pitt is coming off finals week too …….. and having to travel. Advantage Tech in that case.

Also, I didn’t realize that Duke had moved to the top of the Costal standings. Last time I really paid any attention they were @ 0.500 and middle of the pack. In their last 5 series they are 10-4 if I looked at it correctly and they haven’t exactly been playing the bottom teams (exception Pitt), over those series. Maybe we should be looking at their coach as our next head coach (tic).
 

leatherneckjacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,922
Location
Atlanta, GA
The only team in the ACC with a worse road record than us is FSU. The only other major conference teams (SEC, Pac 12, and Big 12) with a worse road record than us are Tennessee, Arizona, and Baylor.
 

bensaysitathome

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
644
Maybe Pitt is coming off finals week too …….. and having to travel. Advantage Tech in that case.

Also, I didn’t realize that Duke had moved to the top of the Costal standings. Last time I really paid any attention they were @ 0.500 and middle of the pack. In their last 5 series they are 10-4 if I looked at it correctly and they haven’t exactly been playing the bottom teams (exception Pitt), over those series. Maybe we should be looking at their coach as our next head coach (tic).
Yeah Duke has gotten hot, winning series against VT and UVA, among others.

If our season is to be extended at all, we should be at Pitt. 2-1, we've effectively held serve. Stayed alive for another day. 3-0, I'm letting myself get optimistic. Lose the series and the season is over.

Then we got Duke and UVA, two talented teams, with a chance to keep it alive.
 

GTJon

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
162
Louisville can catch us with an unlikely sweep and we get swept.

However, even if we get swept, with NC St and Pitt playing each other and currently behind us, there is no way that both could pass us next weekend so it appears to me we are in the ACC Tourney. The final spot would likely come down to Louisville and the loser of the NCSt/Pitt series.
 

FredJacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,182
Location
Fredericksburg, Virginia
Louisville can catch us with an unlikely sweep and we get swept.

However, even if we get swept, with NC St and Pitt playing each other and currently behind us, there is no way that both could pass us next weekend so it appears to me we are in the ACC Tourney. The final spot would likely come down to Louisville and the loser of the NCSt/Pitt series.
There must be some mathematical way we can't get in... would have to involve cancelled games.

I don't see any way both Pitt & NCST finish above .400 (which is worst we can be).
ETA... By canceling a game v UVA, I think we're in FOR SURE. #shenanigans

 

GT33

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,872
fake tech goes down 9-6, look who's in 9th place in ACC now.

If we win 1, neither Pitt nor NcSt can pass us unless they sweep. Whoever loses 2 or more ends up below us. Loisville can tiebreak us if they sweep and we get swept. We can pass BC, UNC. but they require us to sweep and them to be swept. We can go 2-1 and tie ND if they get swept.
 

CINCYMETJACKET

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,210
There must be some mathematical way we can't get in... would have to involve cancelled games.

I don't see any way both Pitt & NCST finish above .400 (which is worst we can be).
ETA... By canceling a game v UVA, I think we're in FOR SURE. #shenanigans


I don't see how we're not in. We're a game up on Pitt, 1.5 up on NC State, 3 up on Louisville. Even if Pitt and NC State split a series with one cancelled, and we lose all 3 against UVA, we are still ahead of NC State. I just don't see how we're not in.
 

FredJacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,182
Location
Fredericksburg, Virginia
It's literally the only scenario that we don't play in ACC baseball championship tournament. If fake tech was involved, I wouldn't put it past them.
GT goes 0-3 against Uva, NC St and Pitt cancel all 3 games, Loisville sweeps.

If Pitt and NcSt play 1 game we're in.
??
If NCST doesn't play... .400 (12-18) still beats them. They are at .385 right now.
 

CINCYMETJACKET

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,210
And if Pitt and NC State don't play any games next weekend and we get swept by UVA, we're at 0.400, Pitt is at 0.400 (we have the tiebreaker) and NC State is at 0.385. So we finish ahead of both of them.

Regardless, let's just WIN and beat UVa! #9 seed as of now in the ACC tournament. Let's keep winning and make the NCAA Tournament!

Mark Teixeira jersey retirement on Saturday! I will be there! From Ohio! Who's going to join us?
 

RonJohn

Helluva Engineer
Messages
4,638
I think I am missing something:

Ga Tech min: .4 max: .5
Va Tech min: .38 max: .48
Pitt Min: .36 max: .46
NC State min: .34 max: .44
Louisville min: .3 max: .4

So, it looks like if GT gets swept, then Louisville (with tiebreaker), Va Tech, and one of Pitt/NC State could pass Ga Tech. It looks mathematically very possible for GT to not make the conference tournament. Very probable that we are in, but still many mathematical chances to not be.
 
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