A Thread to Rehash GT HC Comparisons

[orientalnc]

Here's an interesting factoid.

I was perusing stats actually used by coaches rather than those used by data analysts to predict game outcomes.

The number one stat with the highest predictive value for game winners?

It's Net Yards per Pass Attempt. Passing. Not running.

Even the best running teams have an average yards per carry in the 4-5 yard range. Teams with strong passing offenses generate 9-12 yards per attempt. In the pro game, this one stat predicts wins at an 80%+ rate since data was first collected in 1958. Alabama is around 12. Tech is around 7.3

The second stat most used by coaches? Turnovers. If you are -1 in turnovers, you lose 75% of the time. If -2, 83% of the time. If -3, it's 94% you lose.

I reviewed the stats for this year so far. In the games we won, we had NY/A of 7.8 and 11.7 compared to FSU (3.6) and Louisville (5.9). In all other games, our competitors have drummed us on passing. Clemson had 9.5 NY/A compared to our 2.6.

Moral? High percentage passes of 12-15 yards. No turnovers. And you should win.

While we have 7.3 NY/A ... if we give up a lot in sacks due to an inexperienced line ... it will drop like a rock. Insta-loss.

This sounds like Ian Book and Notre Dame. They never do anything fancy. But, what they do is done well.

 

[7979]

I’d bet on the latter. They’d kill to be Liberty this year.

so would we

 

[Lee]

FYI...I still trade emails with him and have since 2008.

This doesn’t surprise me. A lot harder to be objective when there is a personal connection.

PJ was a good coach, great offensive mind, and great at in game adjustments. He just couldn’t keep up with where college football is heading. No shame in that.

I respect how he left and am thankful for the good times we had while he was here. He knew it was time to move on. I wish some of his ardent followers like yourself would realize that too.

I’ve said this several times, but will again. Collins may not be the answer (I still have hope he can be). But if he’s not, whoever comes in after him will be walking into a situation to compete immediately because of the talent he is bringing and will bring in. He’s also proving we can recruit better than most thought possible here and the excuses we’ve used for so long are just that, excuses.

 

[takethepoints]

I count myself fortunate in that Georgia Tech’s winningest coach was Dodd (70%) who mentored under Bob Neyland (80%). I‘ve followed both programs.

Both heavily advocated speed. We don’t see that at Tech anymore, but Dodd’s teams were FAST. Braun matters but Tech’s historical advantage was always speed.

I saw the same teams. When Bama beat Nebraska in the 1966 Orange Bowl, the biggest player on their OL was Cecil Dowdy, all 6'1", 215 lbs of him. (He was an AA OT, btw.) They flayed Nebraska. Tech used to be like that. I also remember when Tech went out to LA and beat USCw. Their players were complaining that our DLs were catching their RBs from behind. They were too. My freshman year our team won 9 games in a 10 games season. Our biggest players were a 220 OT/DT and a 215 TB. The 215 TB, was bigger then most of the DLs we faced. (We were considered for the Grantland Rice Bowl. Luckily, we were passed over. We would have played Tennessee A&I with Claud Humphrey (!) at DE and Eldridge Dickey (!!) at QB.)

All this changed when the NCAA blocking rules changed to allow holding. And I mean, "We won't call it unless you openly grab an extermity or tackle the guy" holding, like the pros. That put a premium on really big, tall guys who had strong upper bodies. And it was done for the tv revenues; the NCAA thought its market share was losing to the pros because they passed more. In some ways this was an advance; I was always taught to block and tackle with my face guard first, a very dangerous technique. Worked, however.

Well, enough old home week. A 1966 Bama or Tech team would get killed nowadays.

 

[Milwaukee]

This doesn’t surprise me. A lot harder to be objective when there is a personal connection.

PJ was a good coach, great offensive mind, and great at in game adjustments. He just couldn’t keep up with where college football is heading. No shame in that.

I respect how he left and am thankful for the good times we had while he was here. He knew it was time to move on. I wish some of his ardent followers like yourself would realize that too.

I’ve said this several times, but will again. Collins may not be the answer (I still have hope he can be). But if he’s not, whoever comes in after him will be walking into a situation to compete immediately because of the talent he is bringing and will bring in. He’s also proving we can recruit better than most thought possible here and the excuses we’ve used for so long are just that, excuses.

I wouldn’t think it’s a “personal” connection, most likely just a fan emailing a coach non stop and a classy guy like Paul responding.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

I’m hoping the turn around will begin in year three. Heaven help us if it takes 5-7 years.

 

[cthenrys]

I’m hoping the turn around will begin in year three. Heaven help us if it takes 5-7 years.

I’m pretty certain it won’t take 5-7 years. For all the talk of a 7 year contract, schools that give bad contracts will continue to find ways to come up with the cash to eat them. If CGC is here in 7 years, thats a good thing.

For all the talk of recruiting being the panacea for GT football (it won’t be) I hope CGC can do some thing to bump the 2021 class as it seems to be flagging a bit....

 

[g0lftime]

Go read Bear Bryant. He said the same thing. Speed/quick beats size

Bryant recruited a kid from Macon back in the 70's at LB. A close friend of my mine knew him very well from HS. Probably went to Stratford. He asked the kid if he had Pride and Desire. Those were the intangibles he was looking for.

 

[Coloradojacket]

I wouldn’t think it’s a “personal” connection, most likely just a fan emailing a coach non stop and a classy guy like Paul responding.

Um no but I will just leave it as said.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Do you not realize that player rankings this year are skewed because everything is shut down. Of course the services will continue to put out rankings but it’s because they want the money. How can kids be evaluated when they aren’t playing and no camps are being held. I’m not saying our rankings should be higher or not. I don’t care. But after what Collins has been able to do in recruiting I trust him. He may not be able to coach a game day worth a lick, but no one can’t say he can’t find good players.

 

[jacketup]

What the hell are you seeing right now that you enjoy? We are terrible in nearly all aspects of the game.

You are being willfully ignorant in hopes of success and upset that the rest of us have our eyes open and can see what is going on.

Some of you people must be really young, or you are so old you can't remember history.

Did Bill Curry's first two years indicate what kind of coach he would be?

Did Bobby Ross''s first two years indicate what kind of coach he would be?

Did George O'Leary's first two years indicate what kind of coach he would be?

Did Paul Johnson's first two years indicate what kind of coach he would be (although unlike the others, his record trended the other way)?

I understand that many of you don't know enough to understand what you are watching, and can't see how we lack talent at the line of scrimmage, or understand how young we are at offensive skill positions and why that matters. But you should be capable of looking at the won-loss records of the four coaches named above and understand that your comments are premature and unfair. If you can't, then you are just a hater.

If two years from now we are in the same place, then you have a complaint. In the meantime, you are showing your ignorance and hurting the program.

 

[boger2337]

Can the mods either take Lucas Johnson out of the thread title or clean this up? I don't think he's been mentioned at all for a while now...

Is Lucas starting? Where is he on their depth chart out there?

 

[ibeattetris]

Is Lucas starting? Where is he on their depth chart out there?

Lucas Johnson Entering Transfer Portal

I'm glad this worked out for Lucas. I think if he had been healthy when TaQuon got hurt against USF, he would have come in and never looked back. He always had the talent, but, as Techster says, his luck with injuries was very bad indeed. We lost two potentially very good QBs to untimely injury...

gtswarm.com

 

[gtyj18jr]

Some of you people must be really young, or you are so old you can't remember history.

Did Bill Curry's first two years indicate what kind of coach he would be? Other than one unicorn of a season. Yes.

Did Bobby Ross''s first two years indicate what kind of coach he would be? No, but unlike Geoffrey, he actually had a successful head coaching career prior to coming to Tech.

Did George O'Leary's first two years indicate what kind of coach he would be? You mean being competitive in our games other than fsu, unlike Geoffrey.

Did Paul Johnson's first two years indicate what kind of coach he would be (although unlike the others, his record trended the other way)? Yes and terrible analysis of his tenure here.

 

[ncjacket79]

What the hell are you seeing right now that you enjoy? We are terrible in nearly all aspects of the game.

You are being willfully ignorant in hopes of success and upset that the rest of us have our eyes open and can see what is going on.

No he’s upset that you guys have no clue about the transition we’re going through and just think a “great coach” would snap his fingers and overcome roster issues, injuries and recruiting challenges. There is a reason Collins has a 7 year contract and that every expert knew what we were dealing with when we decided to move on from the option. It’s only our fan base who can’t figure it out.

 

[yeti92]

No he’s upset that you guys have no clue about the transition we’re going through and just think a “great coach” would snap his fingers and overcome roster issues, injuries and recruiting challenges. There is a reason Collins has a 7 year contract and that every expert knew what we were dealing with when we decided to move on from the option. It’s only our fan base who can’t figure it out.

Please explain what our entire defense routinely staring at the sideline moments before the ball is snapped has to do with roster issues, injuries, or recruiting challenges.

Everyone is aware of the challenges we face, we are only asking to see incremental improvement and that the things within CGC's control that could help put us in a position to succeed are being done, but neither of those is happening. People set their expectations at 4 or 5 wins, which would get most coaches on the hot seat (Remember, people wanted Paul fired after 2010 when we went 6-7), and yet some of you act like we are expecting CGC to win the national championship with 5 paraplegics and 6 blind kids.

"But the experts!" The "experts" are wrong about stuff all the time. CPJ was predicted to have 2-3 wins his first season by the "experts". For over a decade, UNC and Miami were routinely predicted to be the top team in the coastal. The experts also thought Butch Jones was going to make Tennessee great again.

 

[ncjacket79]

Please explain what our entire defense routinely staring at the sideline moments before the ball is snapped has to do with roster issues, injuries, or recruiting challenges.

Everyone is aware of the challenges we face, we are only asking to see incremental improvement and that the things within CGC's control that could help put us in a position to succeed are being done, but neither of those is happening. People set their expectations at 4 or 5 wins, which would get most coaches on the hot seat (Remember, people wanted Paul fired after 2010 when we went 6-7), and yet some of you act like we are expecting CGC to win the national championship with 5 paraplegics and 6 blind kids.

"But the experts!" The "experts" are wrong about stuff all the time. CPJ was predicted to have 2-3 wins his first season by the "experts". For over a decade, UNC and Miami were routinely predicted to be the top team in the coastal. The experts also thought Butch Jones was going to make Tennessee great again.

On the defense question, have you not watched any college football? EVERYONE does that. If you aren’t seeing improvement you just don’t want to. And yes, experts do get predictions wrong sometimes but anyone who knows football expected us to be bad for several years because of what we lack on our roster.

Take a look at Wake for an example. They purposfully decided to redshirt all linemen and take their lumps as they developed for the future. It takes patience. Is everything rosy and has out staff been perfect? No. But being overly critical and people giving up so quickly only hurts the program.

 

[takethepoints]

On the defense question, have you not watched any college football? EVERYONE does that. If you aren’t seeing improvement you just don’t want to. And yes, experts do get predictions wrong sometimes but anyone who knows football expected us to be bad for several years because of what we lack on our roster.

Take a look at Wake for an example. They purposfully decided to redshirt all linemen and take their lumps as they developed for the future. It takes patience. Is everything rosy and has out staff been perfect? No. But being overly critical and people giving up so quickly only hurts the program.

1. Yes, they do.

2. Yet Paul came in and won 9 games with a teem built around a preset offense. And all the experts thought it would mean years of rebuilding before Tech got better, if it did. Recall that a lot of experts thought the spread option wouldn't work in a P5 league.

3. I agree that Colins has a harder road ahead of him then Paul did; it is easier to transition to a spread option from it. Further, it was unrealistic to expect much in a year that has been as disrupted as this one. Next year will tell us a lot more about where we are, provided that the NCAA decides to stick with it's eligibility decisions. Collins deserves some slack here. But not much more. The main thing I want to see next year is a team that looks disciplined on and off the field and that has a scheme on both sides of the ball that looks like it will win some games. So far that team has shown up once this year for a half of one game.

 

[JacketOff]

The main thing I want to see next year is a team that looks disciplined on and off the field and that has a scheme on both sides of the ball that looks like it will win some games. So far that team has shown up once this year for a half of one game.

What exactly are you seeing to make you suggest the team is not disciplined? Especially off the field?

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Just an observation/opinion. As a high school teacher, girls handle academics and athletics much better than their male counterparts. I may get blasted but this is what I see. Perhaps it's their advanced maturity as adolescents (NOT an opinion). Maybe it's that pro sports doesn't exist for them for the most part so they are less inclined to put all their eggs in that basket.
Also, their identity is not wrapped up in athletics as much. I have known several female athletes who have advanced to college level athletics. Been all-state and/or on a state championship team. But you would never know that in the classroom. They speak of it only if asked. Their minds on on their schoolwork when at school nor do they use practice, travel or games as an excuse for missing work or doing poorly. In my time in education, I have seen 6 (at least) male athletes who were college level in football, some at the p5 level who were not eligible academically. Take this for what it's worth just sharing what I have seen.

That is about right. I taught a boy in high school who was the best lineman this rural south Georgia country had produced in a long time. Big, strong, fast for his size but he could not stay away from the weed and was academically indifferent at best. Never played college ball and last I heard was stocking shelves at Walmart for $9 an hour. IIWII