70 Years of GT Football – Strength of Schedule

[Augusta_Jacket]

The problem with Strength of Schedule arguments are that they are extremely subjective. 2012 Florida Gators are a perfect example. A string of narrow wins versus teams like Louisiana-LaFayette leads to an 11-1 regular season and a #2 ranking. Then they get boat raced by Louisville. They ended up ranked 9th/10th (AP, Coaches), but they were a step away from being the dumpster fire that was 2013 Florida Gators Football. Overall, I think SoS can be a useful tool, but we should use it AFTER the season so we can look objectively at the final product of a season. For instance, our win versus Duke this year looks much better now than it did in September.

 

[awbuzz]

Don't forget that the 10 game season moved to 11 games in 1970(?) and then later to 12 games in 2006. Those extra games (for $'s) IMO has lead to a reduced SOS for most "power conference" teams due to the lure of the extra home game dollars.

 

[Boomergump]

Don't forget that the 10 game season moved to 11 games in 1970(?) and then later to 12 games in 2006. Those extra games (for $'s) IMO has lead to a reduced SOS for most "power conference" teams due to the lure of the extra home game dollars.

Great point.

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

I know we don't want to be a doormat for the tougher opponents... However, if we played a lot tougher schedule wouldn't that theoretically get players more excited about playing those particular games. We may lose some but we might win some also and in turn it could help recruiting just by facing them period. I don't know... Just a thought. Not saying my logic is correct.

Just seems to me that players "get up" for the bigger teams.

Do you think our squad is theoretically excited about the chance to lose yet again to a good Georgia team? Do you think that annual loss carries over into every off season? You have to have the expectation of winning some of those games--whether they be against Georgia, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Miami, or FSU. That might be exciting. But for now we are hapless and hopeless against any competent team that we have on the schedule. That is not appealing to the team, to the fans, or to potential recruits.

 

[IronJacket7]

Do you think our squad is theoretically excited about the chance to lose yet again to a good Georgia team? Do you think that annual loss carries over into every off season? You have to have the expectation of winning some of those games--whether they be against Georgia, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Miami, or FSU. That might be exciting. But for now we are hapless and hopeless against any competent team that we have on the schedule. That is not appealing to the team, to the fans, or to potential recruits.

So what you are saying is you had rather go buy a ticket to watch us play Wofford as opposed to a bigger name program? Do you think the players had rather play Wofford? Do you think the rest of the Jacket nation would rather watch us play Wofford?

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

I realize this has nothing to do with Tech or this particular topic, but I just heard that there is a story (rumor) circulating in Augusta that Georgia's new DC has DUI and gun charges pending against him, and that Richt knew about it and "hid" it from the AD when the guy was hired. Does anybody know anything about this?

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Do you think our squad is theoretically excited about the chance to lose yet again to a good Georgia team? Do you think that annual loss carries over into every off season? You have to have the expectation of winning some of those games--whether they be against Georgia, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Miami, or FSU. That might be exciting. But for now we are hapless and hopeless against any competent team that we have on the schedule. That is not appealing to the team, to the fans, or to potential recruits.

Hapless and hopeless? Give me a break. We are at the very least competitive against every team we play. Sure, there are isolated games when we might get blown out, but that's the case for any and every school in the country. ANYTHING can happen on a given Saturday. I have said it before, and I will say it again here. This hapless and hopeless state of affairs that you PERCEIVE at Tech is nowhere near as bad as it was in the 80s when we had multiple LOSING RECORDS, and two years where we only won one game. Coupled with losing streaks to Duke, Tulane, Navy, and Georgia, plus a 0-1-1 record against Furman (FURMAN??? OMG), those days were dismal and totally devoid of hope.

 

[GravyTrain]

I realize this has nothing to do with Tech or this particular topic, but I just heard that there is a story (rumor) circulating in Augusta that Georgia's new DC has DUI and gun charges pending against him, and that Richt knew about it and "hid" it from the AD when the guy was hired. Does anybody know anything about this?

Don't threadjack. Start a new thread if you need to. Not that hard.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

I am new to this message board, so I don't know the "rules". Wasn't trying to threadjack; just looking for confirmation or denial.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I also think that a true SOS would include location of bye weeks, location of consecutive away games and short weeks. For example, last year's VPI on a short week followed by @d'ohU and @BYu is rougher than if we faced those same teams in a different order or with a bye in between. This year's schedule is much better for us in that regard. We get a bye before d'ohU and U[sic]Ga, Southern before VPI and NCState before CU. We really can't complain about scheduling this year, imo.

You are right that those factors play in, but are they first order or second order effects? And how do you get a large enough sample size to develop meaningful statistics? When you start introducing additional independent variables you increase the variability exponentially.

I think the biggest problem with ranking of teams, whether Power Ranking or SOS is that team performance is not consistent. We are trying to assign a static number that is only relevant at one point in time. But it's the best way I know to objectively evaluate programs.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Thanks, but as far as I can tell those links don't tell me how they calculate P, i.e. the actual power rating, based on the historical results.

The previous link only had the first page. Here's a link with the description starting 2/3 of the way down the first page at "The Howell Power Ranking System - A Brief Description". http://www.mediafire.com/download/ntb4d9xst4bppi4/J_Howell_Methodology1.pdf

Basically, J Howell assumes a certain power ranking for every team and a certain home field weighting for every team. Then he calculates how well that ranking matches the results. He then changes the numbers a bit and goes through an error minimization process until the Powered Rankings he has assigned have minimized the "error".

A good explanation of general practice is at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sports_rating_system . Both my link and the wiki link talk about trade offs in calculating the numbers. As I said before, the biggest problem is that team performance isn't static and we are trying to use historical data which incorporates a teams varying performance to determine a static statistic.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Do you think our squad is theoretically excited about the chance to lose yet again to a good Georgia team? Do you think that annual loss carries over into every off season? You have to have the expectation of winning some of those games--whether they be against Georgia, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Miami, or FSU. That might be exciting. But for now we are hapless and hopeless against any competent team that we have on the schedule. That is not appealing to the team, to the fans, or to potential recruits.

This whole post is opinion, which is fine, but I disagree completely.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Do you think our squad is theoretically excited about the chance to lose yet again to a good Georgia team?

Wow, 7 months away from playing and you've decided we're going to lose. I had guys on some of my teams with that attitude. We ran them off. If you're not playing to win, go find another team to screw up. Sorry, but I haven't been to a GT game I didn't think we could win, including Furman.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

The first thought that comes to mind for me is "isn't that what has happened across all of college football?" I feel sure the trend for all teams, even mighty Special Ed Conf teams is the same. The entirety of CFB is trying to avoid getting knocked out of the championship run through scheduling.

Boomer, I went back and looked at the average SOS Power Ranking for 4 SEC teams (Alabama, Fl, UGAg, USCe) in two five years periods. First 1950 to 1954 and then the most recent 2009 to 2013.

The SEC SOS Power Ranking, on average was tougher recently at .71 for 09-13 and .66 for the early 50's. (Remember Power Ranking is the implied odds of a team beating the average team on a neutral field.) So the SEC schedule is tougher now on average.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

The whole reason I went back to this thread is that I had the idea that our 1990 National Championship was due to a weak SOS. Turns out here are the SOS Power Rankings for the National Champions for the last 30 years:

So it turns out that our SOS in the NC year was consistent with most NCs. Seems that the most common way to get to the NC is an easier SOS -- and every one else loses a game. Look at FSU last year - easy ACC schedule for the year, Duke in the ACC Championship. Then they had to win a tough game at the end.

For 2014, our SOS is projected to be .52 before any bowl game or ACCCG. This year with the four game playoff, I'd expect it will be easier to get into the four teams with a weak SOS and winning every game; but then winning the two games against two really tough teams will be more difficult than beating one team.

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

So what you are saying is you had rather go buy a ticket to watch us play Wofford as opposed to a bigger name program? Do you think the players had rather play Wofford? Do you think the rest of the Jacket nation would rather watch us play Wofford?

I am saying the team, not the fans, the players don't get pumped up about playing FSU or Georgia if we are 17 point underdogs each year, and we haven't won in several years. If we have a chance to win, maybe they get juiced, but I think the kids know when it is futile. The suggestion was we should schedule Michigan State instead of Wofford because the team would be excited.

 

[IronJacket7]

I am saying the team, not the fans, the players don't get pumped up about playing FSU or Georgia if we are 17 point underdogs each year, and we haven't won in several years. If we have a chance to win, maybe they get juiced, but I think the kids know when it is futile. The suggestion was we should schedule Michigan State instead of Wofford because the team would be excited.

I disagree. I think these type scenarios are is exactly what pumps players up.

 

[IronJacket7]

I am saying the team, not the fans, the players don't get pumped up about playing FSU or Georgia if we are 17 point underdogs each year, and we haven't won in several years. If we have a chance to win, maybe they get juiced, but I think the kids know when it is futile. The suggestion was we should schedule Michigan State instead of Wofford because the team would be excited.

Also disagree with this. If a kid thinks any game is futile they shouldn't play the sport. Do they realize that they are underdogs? Yes. Do they hang their head and say there is therefore no way we win? No. That is the mentality of a player that has lost the game before it has started. Those players don't belong at GT.

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

Also disagree with this. If a kid thinks any game is futile they shouldn't play the sport. Do they realize that they are underdogs? Yes. Do they hang their head and say there is therefore no way we win? No. That is the mentality of a player that has lost the game before it has started. Those players don't belong at GT.

We play two schedules a year now. Six or seven games that we might win, and five or six that we can't win. It isn't the kids' fault. And those kids absolutely do belong at Georgia Tech because 9 times out of 10 they chose education over the chance at a stupendous college football career. They are using their athletic ability to gain a degree, not a draft slot. We have beaten Georgia once in the last dozen tries. Once. Is that exciting?

 

[IronJacket7]

We play two schedules a year now. Six or seven games that we might win, and five or six that we can't win. It isn't the kids' fault. And those kids absolutely do belong at Georgia Tech because 9 times out of 10 they chose education over the chance at a stupendous college football career. They are using their athletic ability to gain a degree, not a draft slot. We have beaten Georgia once in the last dozen tries. Once. Is that exciting?

I am disappointed too bubba. But lowering our strength of schedule is not the solution.