70 Years of GT Football – Strength of Schedule

[Lexjacket]

I say -
Can't Never Did Nothin'......

 

[alaguy]

VERY interesting.
What jumped out at me regarding recent SOS was that CG's SOS was much higher than PJs which negates a little of the "PJ better" in win % that comes up when comparing them.
To me,CG was probably overall as good a coach -he was just not as interesting a person nor had as interesting a team with the DEF dominating and his Offense BORING.
ex- better to lose 35-38 or 6-9?

 

[daBuzz]

Interesting thread topic. Thanks for doing the research to find it and then taking the time to post it.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

We play two schedules a year now. Six or seven games that we might win, and five or six that we can't win.

There isn't a game on the schedule we "can't" win. There are two games on the schedule we may only have a 20-30% chance of winning (Clemson, UGAg). Then I'd put Miami 30-40% ; UNC, VT and maybe Duke in the 40-60% range and the rest we should win.

It isn't the kids' fault. And those kids absolutely do belong at Georgia Tech because 9 times out of 10 they chose education over the chance at a stupendous college football career. They are using their athletic ability to gain a degree, not a draft slot. We have beaten Georgia once in the last dozen tries. Once. Is that exciting?

Tell Attaochu, CJ, D Thomas and all the rest of our NFL players that. If they have the physical ability, they can go to the NFL as easy from GT as any major D1 college. The problem is having to do the school work. But if they can do that, then they are even more valuable to the NFL since they are less likely to get arrested for shooting themselves in the leg.

I think our schedule is too weak this year also. The first three games had better be scrimmages for us. If our SOS is 52%, I'd like to see the start of year being more like 60%; that could be done by replacing 2 of the 3 (Woffard, GSU and Tulane) with about 50th ranked teams. The point I can make is that even with our weak schedule, if we are undefeated (thus ACC CG winner) we'll be in the top 4. But I don't see that happening because we don't have the depth of talent to endure the inevitable injuries during the season and Clemson / UGAg will be very good this year.

 

[IronJacket7]

There isn't a game on the schedule we "can't" win. There are two games on the schedule we may only have a 20-30% chance of winning (Clemson, UGAg). Then I'd put Miami 30-40% ; UNC, VT and maybe Duke in the 40-60% range and the rest we should win.



Tell Attaochu, CJ, D Thomas and all the rest of our NFL players that. If they have the physical ability, they can go to the NFL as easy from GT as any major D1 college. The problem is having to do the school work. But if they can do that, then they are even more valuable to the NFL since they are less likely to get arrested for shooting themselves in the leg.

I think our schedule is too weak this year also. The first three games had better be scrimmages for us. If our SOS is 52%, I'd like to see the start of year being more like 60%; that could be done by replacing 2 of the 3 (Woffard, GSU and Tulane) with about 50th ranked teams. The point I can make is that even with our weak schedule, if we are undefeated (thus ACC CG winner) we'll be in the top 4. But I don't see that happening because we don't have the depth of talent to endure the inevitable injuries during the season and Clemson / UGAg will be very good this year.

I agree. And that's my point. I am not suggesting we do an overhaul on tougher opponents. However, replacing your "Tulane" game with an Auburn, Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, (you get the point). That's what I personally would like to see happen.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Interestingly, if you look at our schedule, it slowly builds in difficulty and interest, peaks at Miami and then starts again, with our last 5 games being he most difficult. I'd say Clemson will be better than UGA, but probably an easier win. Clemson->UGA->FSU->Oregon->Alabama.

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

There isn't a game on the schedule we "can't" win. There are two games on the schedule we may only have a 20-30% chance of winning (Clemson, UGAg). Then I'd put Miami 30-40% ; UNC, VT and maybe Duke in the 40-60% range and the rest we should win.



Tell Attaochu, CJ, D Thomas and all the rest of our NFL players that. If they have the physical ability, they can go to the NFL as easy from GT as any major D1 college. The problem is having to do the school work. But if they can do that, then they are even more valuable to the NFL since they are less likely to get arrested for shooting themselves in the leg.

I think our schedule is too weak this year also. The first three games had better be scrimmages for us. If our SOS is 52%, I'd like to see the start of year being more like 60%; that could be done by replacing 2 of the 3 (Woffard, GSU and Tulane) with about 50th ranked teams. The point I can make is that even with our weak schedule, if we are undefeated (thus ACC CG winner) we'll be in the top 4. But I don't see that happening because we don't have the depth of talent to endure the inevitable injuries during the season and Clemson / UGAg will be very good this year.

I trust you will be here in December to re-visit this subject, once the Kool-aid has worn off again. I didn't make up the 1-15 record over the past four years. Having a 20% chance of winning is not winning. I will be surprised if we are favored in more than four or five games. Unfortunately for us, the NCAA doesn't recognize the points---we have to play our games straight up. Nobody will be happier than I will be if we win 9 or ten games, but realistically 6-6 is much more likely thant 9-3.

 

[AE 87]

I trust you will be here in December to re-visit this subject, once the Kool-aid has worn off again. I didn't make up the 1-15 record over the past four years. Having a 20% chance of winning is not winning. I will be surprised if we are favored in more than four or five games. Unfortunately for us, the NCAA doesn't recognize the points---we have to play our games straight up. Nobody will be happier than I will be if we win 9 or ten games, but realistically 6-6 is much more likely thant 9-3.

Could you put some data behind your "realistically 6-6 is much more likely than 9-3" (i.e. show your work)? Are you simply saying that we have no reason to expect our defense to improve from worse than average because they've been worse than average over the past four years?

 

[forensicbuzz]

I don't care about data as much as thought process. I'm not a statistical guy, so rational thought will work for me. I look at that schedule and honestly don't think there are more than 2-3 teams that are better than us. Are there more than 2-3 teams that could beat us, sure. But not that are better than us. How we perform in our 4th and 5th game will determine what type of season we have. If we split, I say we get 9 wins, if we lose both, I say we get 8 wins and if we win both...I say we go 14-0!

On the other hand, if we lose any of the first 3, I say the bowl streak is ended and we may have a new coach in 2015.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

..........On the other hand, if we lose any of the first 3, I say the bowl streak is ended and we may have a new coach in 2015.

Didn't you mean 2014? CPJ won't make it out of the year because those 3 teams are no where near the quality of those that follow. But I don't think we lose any of those games / scrimmages.

For JBR: I'll be here in December. Neither of us knows how good we will be; we all agree on that. As usual there are lots of optimistic sounds from the team, which is good. They are the ones that have to believe; and more importantly win the games. But I think we'll make a run at the ACC CG at the least, just like we do almost every year. And I'll enjoy the ride the best I can, just like Beesball where we did much more than was expected.

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

Could you put some data behind your "realistically 6-6 is much more likely than 9-3" (i.e. show your work)? Are you simply saying that we have no reason to expect our defense to improve from worse than average because they've been worse than average over the past four years?

Got no data, but I'll share my thoughts. Didn't realize I was taking the E.I.T. again. Most is borne of watching Tech and college football in general for several decades. Some is based on watching this particular program under Coach Johnson plateau out since 2010. Wofford's a win, Tulane plays Tulsa then us. We are traveling early in the year, but we should win. Tulane is not a certainty tho, because early on the triple option has issues with timing. Southern we beat . Now at Va. Tech. They will have played Ohio State and then East Carolina immediately before us. We ought to compete, but I am just not sure CPJ can beat Foster's defense ever again. If we couldn't beat them last year at home when they had no offense at all, WTF? Likely a loss in Blacksburg. Miami at home. Until we beat them, I can't say we SHOULD beat them. They play Duke before us. Then we play Duke, should win, but note except for Miami, Duke will have warmed up with Elon, Troy, Kansas, and Tulane---and they have Coach Cutcliffe. At UNC, them coming off a trip to South Bend. I think we lose. At Pittsburgh, it was very close last year taking a circus catch by Smelter to save the game. We could win, but I see this as a toss up. Virginia has a brutal schedule with UCLA, Louisville, at BYU. They should be spent before we see them. We beat Virginia. Next is NCST at Raleigh.. Second year coach for them and the axiom is year 2 is the most improvement for new coaches. We ought to win, but I see this as 50-50. Clemson, no way. They have Syracuse then Wake on thursday prior to us with extra time to prepare. Georgia is still Georgia plus they play Charleston Southern prior to us going to Athens. Another loss. So five losses, three "toss ups" and watch out for Tulane.

 

[alaguy]

Could you put some data behind your "realistically 6-6 is much more likely than 9-3" (i.e. show your work)? Are you simply saying that we have no reason to expect our defense to improve from worse than average because they've been worse than average over the past four years?

87,
I think 6-6 is JUST as likely as 9-3 for sure--because--we are losing 6 of 7 top tacklers off a average DEf line.If you don't control the LOS ,you will hurt.We have 3 new starters on Oline basically including the KEY Ctr position. We lose the best player on Off AND Def,JAtt and Godhigh. AND have a new QB. To me,these a enough problems to lose 6 games possibly as I don't see the talent this yr to replace the talent/exp lost.

 

[AE 87]

Got no data, but I'll share my thoughts. Didn't realize I was taking the E.I.T. again. Most is borne of watching Tech and college football in general for several decades. Some is based on watching this particular program under Coach Johnson plateau out since 2010. Wofford's a win, Tulane plays Tulsa then us. We are traveling early in the year, but we should win. Tulane is not a certainty tho, because early on the triple option has issues with timing. Southern we beat . Now at Va. Tech. They will have played Ohio State and then East Carolina immediately before us. We ought to compete, but I am just not sure CPJ can beat Foster's defense ever again. If we couldn't beat them last year at home when they had no offense at all, WTF? Likely a loss in Blacksburg. Miami at home. Until we beat them, I can't say we SHOULD beat them. They play Duke before us. Then we play Duke, should win, but note except for Miami, Duke will have warmed up with Elon, Troy, Kansas, and Tulane---and they have Coach Cutcliffe. At UNC, them coming off a trip to South Bend. I think we lose. At Pittsburgh, it was very close last year taking a circus catch by Smelter to save the game. We could win, but I see this as a toss up. Virginia has a brutal schedule with UCLA, Louisville, at BYU. They should be spent before we see them. We beat Virginia. Next is NCST at Raleigh.. Second year coach for them and the axiom is year 2 is the most improvement for new coaches. We ought to win, but I see this as 50-50. Clemson, no way. They have Syracuse then Wake on thursday prior to us with extra time to prepare. Georgia is still Georgia plus they play Charleston Southern prior to us going to Athens. Another loss. So five losses, three "toss ups" and watch out for Tulane.

OK, thanks. I don't think that assessment is as realistic as you. From last year's schedule, we replace BYU with Tulane and Syracuse with NC State. All things being equal, that translates from 7-5 to 8-4.

It seems to me that your assessment is overly pessimistic and inconsistent. With respect to Miami, you say, "Until we beat them, I can't say that we SHOULD beat them." Well, we did beat them in 2008. I know that it was six years ago and only once in six years, but it was also the only time UNC beat us in the last six years. Yet you marked both Miami and UNC as losses for us.

You also see us as a toss up against a team that was 3-9 last year. Come on.

 

[AE 87]

@alaguy @Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau

Here's my take, fwiw:
Underdog: @vpi, cu, @georgie
Fav: Wof, @tul, GaSouth, Duke, uva, @ncst
Rest: mia, @unc, @pitt

I think it really unlikely that we lose any of the games I mark as Fav. Our inexperience on both lines raises questions, but most of the new starters have had decent minutes or are highly regarded from practice.

I think winning 3 of the 6 remaining games is much more likely than losing them all (or losing one of the games I mark us as fav).

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

OK, thanks. I don't think that assessment is as realistic as you. From last year's schedule, we replace BYU with Tulane and Syracuse with NC State. All things being equal, that translates from 7-5 to 8-4.

It seems to me that your assessment is overly pessimistic and inconsistent. With respect to Miami, you say, "Until we beat them, I can't say that we SHOULD beat them." Well, we did beat them in 2008. I know that it was six years ago and only once in six years, but it was also the only time UNC beat us in the last six years. Yet you marked both Miami and UNC as losses for us.


You also see us as a toss up against a team that was 3-9 last year. Come on.

I want us to be 14-0, and I want to win the Powerball Lottery, too. You cannot seriously be comparing our squad today to our squad of 2008 . Our offense, the acknowledged strength, has several question marks. Quarterback is inexperienced, and unsettled as of today. There is no gamebreaking running back, and we are not even sure we can replace last year's best A back with one that is just as good. Same at B-back. Wide-out may be a bright spot, unless we don't throw much. Newsflash, historically, we don't throw much. The offensive line is bigger, but has an aggregate of 39 starts returning. Shaq Mason has 26 of those. There will be 3 new starters up front. If you are telling me that every second teamer from last year is coming in and be an improvement over last year's starters, I'm good with that. That is not what usually happens, though. Defense might be on the upswing, but as of today we really don't know. We know Attaochu is gone and not replaced. We know Gotsis is back, and every other DL is a question mark. If we are improved it will be a huge help and Roof and Pelton will look like world beaters. We are very young on the back seven, but there is talent on the two deep there. Realistically, though, with this particular coach, we will still be looking to outscore the other guys rather than hold them to 18 or 20 points. We don't have a defense that can do that yet, and we may not have an offense that is going to put up the 400+ points needed to win a lot of games.

 

[AE 87]

I want us to be 14-0, and I want to win the Powerball Lottery, too. You cannot seriously be comparing our squad today to our squad of 2008 . Our offense, the acknowledged strength, has several question marks. Quarterback is inexperienced, and unsettled as of today. There is no gamebreaking running back, and we are not even sure we can replace last year's best A back with one that is just as good. Same at B-back. Wide-out may be a bright spot, unless we don't throw much. Newsflash, historically, we don't throw much. The offensive line is bigger, but has an aggregate of 39 starts returning. Shaq Mason has 26 of those. There will be 3 new starters up front. If you are telling me that every second teamer from last year is coming in and be an improvement over last year's starters, I'm good with that. That is not what usually happens, though. Defense might be on the upswing, but as of today we really don't know. We know Attaochu is gone and not replaced. We know Gotsis is back, and every other DL is a question mark. If we are improved it will be a huge help and Roof and Pelton will look like world beaters. We are very young on the back seven, but there is talent on the two deep there. Realistically, though, with this particular coach, we will still be looking to outscore the other guys rather than hold them to 18 or 20 points. We don't have a defense that can do that yet, and we may not have an offense that is going to put up the 400+ points needed to win a lot of games.

Ok, this seems like an overly emotional response. Who's predicting us to go 14-0? What's the point in that reaction?

It still seems to me that you are confusing the words "realistic" and "pessimistic."

Our incoming QB has as much time in the system as last year's. We have lots of Abacks who have shown they can play and a very good Bback returning. Yes, the OL will have new starters but it's not like they're asked to replace perfection. CPJs offense has been fairly consistent with 2013 being the second worse of 6 years. CPJ has said that he expects our O to be as good or better this year. So, expecting the 2014 offense to be worse than 2013 is pessimistic not realistic imo.

DEs are a question mark, but that doesn't mean they'll be horrible. Our D was not great last year on the whole, expecting them to be the same or a bit better this year is not expecting a whole lot. Expecting them to be worse is pessimistic not realistic, imo.

So, if we're not worse this year than last, we shouldn't expect to lose six games after replacing byu with tulane, realistically.

Also, to clarify, I did not compare this squad to the 2008 squad. I mentioned 2008 only with ref to the last time we beat mia and the last time we lost to unc in response to your inconsistent logic in picking us to lose both.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Strength of schedule? I think we are too light this year at 52%. (The average team we play has a 52% chance of beating the average D1 team on a neutral site.)

But in another sense, those first three games will do a lot for OL (and the rest of the team) experience. JBR raises a good point of inexperience, but come mid-season I think that injuries will be more of a problem than overall inexperience. So while we are trying to build the program, maybe the light SOS (from the first 3 games) isn't bad.

 

[forensicbuzz]

I'm with AE87 on this one. I think we're much closer to 9-3 than 6-6. I put the over/under at 8 wins. However, if we lose any of the first three games, I don't think we reach 6 wins and have a new coach.

Oh, and by the way, I'm the one that predicted 14-0. It'll be tougher this year than most, but until we lose, I highly optimistic.

 

[Eastman]

Strength of schedule? I think we are too light this year at 52%. (The average team we play has a 52% chance of beating the average D1 team on a neutral site.)

But in another sense, those first three games will do a lot for OL (and the rest of the team) experience. JBR raises a good point of inexperience, but come mid-season I think that injuries will be more of a problem than overall inexperience. So while we are trying to build the program, maybe the light SOS (from the first 3 games) isn't bad.

Certainly agree, especially with the point on injuries. When I look at our starting line-ups, optimism makes sense. IMO Roof should have the defense as good or a bit better than last year based on the extra time in the system, return of players that missed last year with injuries etc. It appears PJ is convinced the offense will be better as well for all the reasons often given.

The problem is that we are so thin in important areas, especially with the loss of JHD and Custis. Injuries are inevitable and just one or two at a vulnerable position and the season becomes a disappointment filled with "could-have-beens" like the last couple seasons have born out.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Nesbitt had no more experience in the beginning of '08 than JT has now. He looked absolutely retched in the spring prior. At least JT looked good before he got dinged up and had to sit out the Spring Game.